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Thursday, December 31, 2009

It was a quiet day to the downside until the last half hour today. Then the bottom fell out as the Dow lost 120 points. Volume was light again and the advance/declines were negative. We needed to see some downside, technically and we got it. You really can't tell what will happen next since this was such a thinly traded week. My guess is that we will head back to the upside but I'll have to mull things over the long weekend. Gold was up $3 but the XAU was flat. I suppose it wasn't too bad for the gold shares considering the overall markets drop. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. My ABX calls are solidly in the red now and close to getting stopped out. Any downside on Monday will probably end this trade with a loss. The time premium continues to get sucked out of this trade. In retrospect they should have been dumped earlier this week and I could buy them back later if I chose to do so. It is however, a long weekend. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. The 2009 trading year has come to a close and it wasn't a good one for me. My trading account was down 21%, which was almost a repeat of 2007 when I lost 25%. I have made some adjustments to my trading rules and it will be up to me to stick to them. There were many opportunities through out the year but my trading decisions never panned out as planned. My management of the trades is where most of the trouble was. I'm working on it. It is the toughest game in the world. There are no excuses. I'll go over the charts this weekend and be ready for Monday morning. For now though it's time to take a break over the long weekend. I'll be looking forward to a better trading year in 2010.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Another day of the blahs as the Dow gained 3 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was extremely light. The market tried to sell off but came back. I really think we need to see some downside tomorrow or we will be starting out the new year lower. That's my guess. We'll get through tomorrow and go from there. Gold dropped $5 and the XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. My ABX calls are now in the red. Looks like I'll hang on until next year unless they get stopped out tomorrow. Obviously, I should have dumped them earlier and then bought them back if I wanted to try it again. This trade still could work but it isn't looking promising at this point. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. Almost done with 2009 and it was a terrible trading year for me. I'll get the final details out tomorrow. Otherwise the market just isn't working off the overbought condition as it should. The break to new recovery highs has been on anemic volume. It isn't a positive at this point. On to the final trading day for 2009.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Another light volume exercise in waiting for next year as the Dow lost a point. Advance/declines about even again. I'm expecting some weakness and it will probably be soon. I don't think it's the beginning of anything big but we do have to work off the overbought condition of the market. Summation index still heading higher. Gold dropped about $10 today and the XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX and GG had fractional losses with ABX leading the way. NEM was flat. The volume was holiday light again. My ABX calls are back to break even. The technicals look like they are about to roll over so this could be another in the story of 2009 losing trades now. I have seen it time and time again this past year. There is no volume here though so there is still a chance that it will work in the beginning of the year. We'll see. The dollar was a bit stronger today. Mentally I'm doing OK. Perhaps I should have just waited until the new year to initiate this gold trade. The market seems even slower than usual for this time of year. 2 days left in 2009. I can't see any big rally until next week, if then. This has been a light volume rise and that is never sustainable in my opinion. So we'll see what happens.

Monday, December 28, 2009

It was a lackluster Monday as the Dow gained 27 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were about even. We're overbought here and I would expect some downside this week. There's not a lot of data out this week. And it's a short week. I probably should not even have an open position but what can you do? Gold was up 3 bucks and it really should have been more considering the events of the weekend. That's not a bullish sign. The XAU fell 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. My ABX calls are still in the black but if we don't see some upside movement, the time premium will start to get sucked out of them. Plus if we start to get a drop in the overall market as I suspect, the gold shares will follow. So perhaps I won't be holding this position into the new year. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So it's a short holiday week and you can't put much stock into what movement there is. Everyone is gearing up for the beginning of the year. My thinking was that there would be some who would want to position themselves in gold ahead of time but it doesn't look like it today. So I'll ponder things overnight and go from there.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Up another 53 points on this holiday shortened session. Volume was extremely light. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We're moving higher but it is hard to get excited when the volume just isn't there. It could be a fake out. Overbought now as well. Gold had a good day, up $10 but the gold shares did not follow. The XAU was up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves on very light volume. My ABX trade is still in the black. I'm really going to have to think about this one over the long weekend. Light volume rallies are never a good thing and that's what we've gotten here. Perhaps it is just a sign of the holiday times but I'm not so sure. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there I guess. Happy Holidays everyone.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Not much today as the Dow gained a point on very light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a positive going forward. Summation index heading higher. It's got everything but volume. However it is a holiday week. Gold was up $7 on a weaker dollar but was off in the Aftermarket. The XAU rose 5 1/3. ABX and NEM were up 1 1/4, while GG tacked on 1 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares seem to have started to act better than the metal itself. That could be a good sign. Or not. Usually it is. The ABX calls I purchased are in the black. Now the question is what to do next. I'm leaning towards taking the profit sooner rather than later but I will have to think it over. I'll at least be holding on until next week. Mentally I'm doing OK but feel a bit tired. Shortened trading session tomorrow and I wouldn't make much of what happens. It's holiday time and the major players aren't around. So it's time to take it easy.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Continuing higher as the Dow tacked on another 50 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. It's a light volume rally and they can never be trusted. However we are in the favorable period for a Santa Claus rally. Summation index heading higher as well. We really need a high volume breakout of the trading range one way or the other to determine where we are heading. Gold lost another $10 and was lower in the aftermarket. The XAU was flat, off 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light to average volume. The gold shares were weak early and my open order for January ABX calls was filled. The stop loss order has been placed. I originally wanted to hold this trade into the new year but it seems like we have entered a listless period for the gold shares and I may sell them before the end of the year if they aren't stopped out. Or I may just sell them anyway. The dollar was up a bit today. The gold shares are still oversold. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Definitely feeling better than yesterday. 2 days to go this week and I don't expect any huge moves. Maybe some backing and filling going into Christmas. That's it for today. We'll see how the ABX trade works out.

Monday, December 21, 2009

A good start to the week for the bulls as the Dow gained 85 points. Advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. Still stuck in the trading range though. I don't see any high volume breakout occurring one way or the other until next year. I could be wrong though and often am. I'd expect the market to drift higher for the rest of the week. Gold was hit again today, down $15 and lower in the aftermarket. The XAU held up well, off 1 1/2. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM dropped 1 1/4. Volume was average. The dollar was higher today. The gold shares held up better than the metal itself and that could be bullish going forward for the gold shares. I still have an order in for some ABX January calls though I did adjust it down a touch on the price. The longer term uptrend line is holding for now and we remain oversold. Mentally I'm doing OK but I'm not feeling that well today. A short trading week this week and next. The sidelines isn't a bad place to be but traders will be trying to position themselves for the start of the new year. I'm still going to give the gold share calls a try if my order is filled. So we'll see what happens.

Friday, December 18, 2009

It was a relatively quiet expiration as the Dow gained 20 points. Volume was pretty good and the advance/declines were positive. Perhaps this is the beginning of the Santa Claus rally. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Still stuck in the trading range though. I don't really expect a breakout one way or the other until next year. Gold was up another $5 and the XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX and GG were up around a buck and NEM gained over 1/2. Volume was good. We are at the area where the gold shares should hold up and rally. I will be looking at the gold share calls next week on any weakness. The options didn't move much today even with 1 point moves in ABX and GG. There is a lot of time premium in the prices. I'm leaving in my open order for ABX calls. If we don't hold up here than that trade will be off. The dollar was strong early and then fell back. We reached the 78 level which was the target in my opinion. Checking the dollar chart, there is a chance we could go to 80. However I am sticking with the plan for the gold shares at these levels for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. A holiday week coming up and I expect that things will slow down. It makes for tough trading. However I think we are at a point where perhaps taking a risk in the gold share calls is warranted. I'll check the charts over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. There is work to do before Monday though.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

It wasn't quiet today as stocks fell 132 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. Perhaps it was expiration related or maybe just getting the selling done before the holidays. We're now back at the bottom of the trading range. I thought we would break to the upside but perhaps I'm wrong again. Not oversold on a short term basis yet but we're getting there. Closed near the low of the day and that isn't positive. Gold got clobbered and took out the recent low as the dollar had a big day to the upside. The precious metal lost $28 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost about 9. ABX down 1 1/2, GG off 2 and NEM lost 3. Volume was heavy. We have reached the longer term uptrend line that I was waiting for. Will it hold? Doesn't look like it with todays action. I have an order in for some January ABX calls and I'm leaving it open until it gets filled. The dollar has just about reached the 78 level which is where I believe it will stop. If it doesn't then I will have to readjust my thinking as to what is going on here. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I really don't think that today is the start of any big sustained decline. I think we'll get a Santa Claus rally and good money flow input at the beginning of next year. That's my guess for now. But the market can and will do anything. We'll see about expiration Friday and go from there.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

The Dow dropped 10 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were higher for most of the day until the Fed and then we fell. Really not much is happening here as the trading range market continues. Just how long is this going to go on I wonder? The Fed said nothing new and sideways we go. It will be interesting once we break out. When that is, is anybodies guess. With a holiday week coming up I don't see any change of the current scenario until next year. I could be wrong. Gold bounced, up $13. The XAU rose 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains with ABX leading the way. The relative strength lately has been with ABX. Volume was nothing special. I did not try the December gold share calls today and will wait for the January options. The dollar sold off early and then came back. I would really like to see the gold shares return to the longer term uptrend line for me to place a trade. There is no rush but I'll be keeping an eye on them. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep long enough. So it's a waiting game for now. Expiration in 2 days and then a short week. I'd expect volume to dry up but who knows? My next trade will be some gold share calls unless there is a solid signal in the OEX or a high volume breakout from the trading range.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

The Dow lost 49 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were due for some type of pullback with the short term overbought condition. Now it's a toss up as to which way we go from here. Fed tomorrow and I wouldn't expect any surprises. But you never know. I am not going to try any OEX trades with 3 days left and a neutral technical condition. Gold was flat today and the XAU lost over 3 points. ABX dropped 3/4, GG lost 2/3 and NEM fell a buck. Volume was light. I did place an order for GG December calls but it wasn't filled. Gold held up well today despite a very good up move in the dollar. I think that perhaps a short term gold share trade could work. The technicals are very oversold on a daily basis for the gold shares. A bounce is due. There's only 3 days left though. I might try to do it again early tomorrow morning. I have to mull things over tonight. It's risky. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept more. The question is whether to try this gold trade or not. I'll monitor things overnight and go from there. I still like the January gold share trade and may just look for an opportunity there. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Monday, December 14, 2009

We started the week off with a gain as the Dow rose 29 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We're getting short term overbought here but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. We are at the top of the trading range. Will we break out to the upside? Stay tuned. Fed on Wednesday could be the catalyst. Or not. That is the type of market environment at the moment. Perhaps I'll try the OEX puts but I doubt it. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rose 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. Oversold here but still not at the rising trend lines. I don't think I'll be trying anything for December but I'll have to see what tomorrow brings. Running out of time for sure but it is possible that the Fed will be a catalyst here as well. The dollar was a bit weaker today. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. So we have 4 days left which is enough time for a short term trade, which really isn't my best type. It would probably be best to stay on the sidelines but we'll see. I still am in the mindset of getting some January gold share calls. The technicals are oversold on a daily basis, neutral on a weekly basis. Let's see what happens on Tuesday.

Friday, December 11, 2009

We continued higher today as the Dow gained 65 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It's been a lackluster move to the upside so far. Expiration week coming up and it could have the usual positive bias. We are still in the trading range though and moving back up towards the top of it. With the holidays fast approaching I can't see any big moves coming up in the near term but anything can happen I guess. Gold futures lost $6 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 3 2/3. ABX off 1 1/2, GG off 1 and NEM off 1/2. Volume was light. Nobody was rushing in to buy as was the case just a couple of weeks ago. The dollar had another good day and closed the week near the highs. We are getting close to an uptrend line for the golds shares. I'll be getting some GG or ABX calls when we get there. I'm not ruling out the Decembers if we get there early next week. But most likely I'll be going out to January. There is no guarantee that the uptrend line will hold but we should see at least a bounce there. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The Fed next week will be the main focus and that isn't until Wednesday. Trading the December options will be risky. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. There may or may not be opportunity. We could just move sideways as well. But it's the weekend now and time for a rest.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

The Dow continued to the upside with a gain of 68 points today. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We opened higher and traded sideways for the rest of the day. So it continues. The major averages are stuck in a range and we wait for the breakout. My guess is that we're going to move to the upside eventually. But it is just a guess. The medium term indicators are move oversold than overbought. Gold stabilized, was up $5 today and stronger in the aftermarket. The XAU was only up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves both ways on light volume. I still may try something for December but am leaning towards the January gold share calls. The dollar was a touch higher today. The gold shares are oversold here but I'd like to wait for next week to do something. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. 6 days until the December expiration, so the risk is high. We've got the Fed next week as well. I don't expect any surprises but you never know. We could also just meander around in the trading range as we have been. We'll see what happens Friday and go from there.

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

A bounce to the upside as the Dow gained 51 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We traded down to the low end of the sideways channel and have bounced up. The market has been in this trading range for almost a month. Once it breaks out one way or the other, it should be a big move. It's probably best to wait and see what happens. Once we break out then it's just a matter of getting on board. Gold was down $20 on the futures but came back in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 4 1/2 points. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1 and NEM up 1 1/3. Volume was average. I did leave in an overnight order for some December ABX calls but it wasn't filled. We'll see what kind of bounce we get here. The dollar was a bit weaker on the day. We're oversold on the gold shares. I still like the January calls and will be getting some here soon. Next week could be the best time but we'll see. It's possible I'll try Decembers again if things line up right. Mentally I'm feeling fine. One of the problems to deal with here is that things could really slow down at the end of the year. After next weeks expiration the volatility could shrink. That won't help the option prices. I don't know what will happen but it would not surprise me if we moved into a lackluster trading pattern. So that must be considered going forward as well. We'll see if we can build on todays gains tomorrow.

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

It was a downer Tuesday as the Dow lost 104 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Still in the sideways channel but near the lower end. Will we break down here? I don't know. Getting short term oversold but not there yet. Maybe it's a chance to get long the December OEX calls. Maybe not. I'm indecisive here so unless there is a solid signal, I'm on the sidelines. Gold continues to fall, down $20 and dropping in the aftermarket. ABX down almost 2, with GG and NEM off 1 1/2. Volume was average. The dollar had another good day. Oversold here for sure and I'm thinking about perhaps playing the bounce that will inevitably occur. However I am going to buy some January gold share calls when the XAU hits my downside target. We are almost there already which concerns me. But I'm going to give it a shot. Next week would be ideal but if we get there this week, I'll be buying some calls. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. My thinking is that the decline or sideways movement we are seeing now is setting up for a January rally. But that's a guess. The market will go where it wants. I may leave in an overnight order for some gold share calls. I'll be checking the charts tonight.

Monday, December 07, 2009

The Dow was up a point today as we closed about in the middle of the days trading range. In other words, indecision. Volume was nothing special and the advance/declines were positive. The S&P along with the NASDAQ were lower. We will break out of the trading range eventually and it's probably a wise move to wait until that happens. Which doesn't mean that I will of course. However I have no OEX trades in mind right now. Gold continued lower, off $5 on the futures and lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 3 points. ABX and NEM had fractional losses after being lower early. GG lost about a buck. Volume was pretty good again. I'd expect a bounce here soon but don't think that I'll try and play it. I'm going to look at the January calls. That should be the next trade as of now. But you never know. The dollar bounced around today and closed lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 9 days in the December option cycle. I'll look things over again tonight but I don't see any decent signals at the moment. Not a lot of data out this week. We've got the Fed rate decision next week. So it still looks like a time to be patient for now. We'll see.

Friday, December 04, 2009

An interesting day as we opened higher, gave it all back and then some, only to return to the upside by the end of the day. The Dow gained 22 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment report was much stronger than expected which caused markets to move with volatility. We are still in a sideways trading range with regards to the S&P, even with all the gyrations today. No OEX trades still. I don't have any good signals yet. Perhaps before the December expiration. Gold got hammered as the dollar rose on the employment news. Gold lost about $50 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 10 1/2. ABX off over 4, GG and NEM fell 2 3/4. Volume was heavy. I still like a January trade in the calls here and will be looking for an entry point in the next 2 weeks. Perhaps the game has changed here for a while. I'll check the charts over the weekend. Gold did go parabolic and a drop was to be expected. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. Now the employment report is out of the way. The overall market has been stronger than the Dow and that could be a sign of good things to come on the bullish side. We will break out of this trading range eventually one way or the other. I'll be looking over the charts this weekend and take it from there. For now, it's time for a break.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Opened higher and closed lower and that isn't really a bullish sign as the Dow lost 86 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are still moving sideways. Tomorrows employment report could be the catalyst to get us out of this trading range. Or not. I have no OEX trades on my radar. We are not overbought or oversold here, just muddling along. Gold was up another $5 today but the XAU fell 4 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around a buck on average volume. The dollar was a touch higher. I'll get long the gold shares on a pullback. That is the game plan for now. No hurry though as we are very overbought here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So was today a precursor of what the markets reaction will be to the employment report. Stay tuned. So far we haven't broken through the long term downtrend lines on the S&P. When we do it will be quite a rally but it hasn't happened yet. Perhaps at the beginning of next year but that is a guess. The market will go where it wants. On to tomorrow.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Kind of a sideways day as the Dow lost 19 points. The overall market was stronger. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. Fed minutes were released but they were not a market mover. I think we're in a holding pattern until the employment report on Friday. I have no OEX trades in mind. Gold continues higher, up $12. The XAU rose 4 1/4. ABX was up almost 2, GG up over a buck and NEM was the laggard finishing flat on the day. The dollar was a bit higher. Gold has gone parabolic and the money just continues to flow there. The volume is really good on the rallies. How high can it go? Who knows? I think that I'll just get long the next time the indicators move toward oversold since they never really seem to get there. Perhaps. I do want to have some calls before the beginning of next year because my thinking is that the new year money will flock to the precious metal. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. The market and summation index have been moving sideways for a few weeks. Perhaps the employment report will break us out of the range. Some of the major indexes are also at long term resistance. If we move to the upside it should be significant. So we'll see what happens. The market also shrugged off the Dubai bad news and that is bullish. Perhaps the OEX calls are the play. I'll mull things over tonight.

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

It was a positive start to the new month as the Dow gained 126 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to frustrate me as it is moving basically sideways. There's nothing I can do about that. Perhaps I should have realized that the money flow would be coming into the markets. The Dubai event was not sustainable to the downside. It's always easy to look back and say what you should have done. Doesn't matter. The markets keep moving along. Gold had a great day and crossed $1200, up 17 on the day. The XAU rose 9. ABX up 3 1/3, GG up 2 3/4 and NEM up 2. All on heavy volume. Missed that window of opportunity as well. But gold is so overbought at the moment that it can't end well when it does. But who knows? The dollar lost ground again. As oversold as the indicators are in the dollar, they are just as overbought for gold. I don't plan on doing anything there after todays action. Mentally I'm not feeling 100%. Could have slept better. It seems as though I am just waiting for next year at this point. That may not be the best plan of action. However I don't have a good feel for what's going on at the moment. I'm not going to press things. If there's a decent signal one way or the other in the December cycle, I'll act on it. Otherwise I'll wait it out.

Monday, November 30, 2009

The Dow gained 35 points to close out the month of November. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. So perhaps that is it for the fallout from Dubai. We'll see. I don't expect any big rally from here but you never know. Beginning of the month positive money flows should affect things for the next couple of days as we wait for the employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for now. Gold was up $7 today as the dollar lost a bit of ground. The XAU had a fractional gain. The gold shares were mixed with fractional gains and losses for ABX, GG, NEM. Volume was light. My next trade should be here but I would like to see some consolidation or pullback first. I'm also leaning towards going out to the January calls. Time will tell. Nothing doing for now. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. We're moving into December and I have pretty good losses for the year. There will be no miracle trades to save the day. I'm looking forward to the new year and a fresh start. I still may make another trade before the year ends but things will have to line up just right. I don't have any clear signals at the moment but that could change. On to tomorrow.

Friday, November 27, 2009

What was supposed to be a quiet holiday shortened session was anything but as the Dow lost 154 on very light volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The country of Dubai is threatening to default on its debt. World markets had a tough day on Thanksgiving and the US market mirrored that today. I don't know what it means for Monday but the summation index should be heading south after today. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend. Gold took a hit as well, down $18. The XAU fell 7 1/4. ABX and NEM dropped 1 1/2, while GG lost 2. Volume was light. All were off even more early. The dollar was higher but not as much as you'd expect with a flight to safety move. I'll need to look at these charts over the weekend as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, trying to get some rest. But obviously with the recent Dubai development, there is much to do. Is this an opportunity to get long or is this the beginning of a long awaited sustained move to the downside? That's the question of the moment. I'm still going to relax for a couple of days and then see what happens Sunday night when the world starts up again. This is probably some type of opportunity. Taking advantage of it is the trick.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Another slow day as the Dow gained 30 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Holiday tomorrow and a shortened session on Friday. It's a waiting game. I'm leaning towards getting some OEX puts with such light volume here lately. We'll see. Gold continues it's climb to the sky, up another $20 as we approach $1200. The XAU gained 5 points. ABX and GG were up a buck , while NEM tacked on 1 1/2. Volume was light. The money continues to go into gold. You cannot fight that. The dollar was weaker today and broke its near term support. We are very overbought in the gold shares and the gold market but there hasn't been any drop. That won't last forever. I'll be taking a look at the gold shares as well. Mentally I'm in stand by mode. There isn't much else to do this week. Relax and try to come up with a game plan for the December option cycle. But there's no hurry.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

The Dow lost 17 points today in light trading. Advance/declines were negative. Just marking time here in my opinion. It's a holiday light week. No trades on the horizon with regards to the OEX. Gold was up a buck and even higher in the aftermarket. The XAU lost a point and change. ABX off 3/4, GG down almost a point and NEM fell 1/4. Volume was average to light. The dollar was flat today. I'd like to get long the gold shares again at some point. I just don't know when that point will be. The money continues to flow into gold and you can't argue with that. However at some point the money will flow out and fast. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm remaining patient here as there is no rush to put on a trade. So it's just a wait and see environment. Tomorrow should be slow with light trading again.

Monday, November 23, 2009

The holiday week started on a positive note as the Dow gained 132 points. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive and the volume was light. We were oversold and due for a bounce. I don't think it's going to be much more than that. Major overhead resistance is in play now. We will either have a drop here or move sideways in my opinion. We'll see what happens. Gold set another new high today, up $17. The XAU rose 2 3/4. The gold shares were mixed with ABX dropping a touch, while GG was up fractionally and NEM gained a point. Volume was average. The gold shares have been lagging the price of gold lately. I'm going to hold off on the calls for now. The dollar was weaker today and is basically moving sideways like the overall stock market. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better. I'm in a wait and see mode at the moment as I do not plan on taking on any positions this holiday week. It's a time for me to be patient. I'll try my best.

Friday, November 20, 2009

We closed the week with a loss of 14 points in the Dow. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. Pretty quiet despite the expiration. Short week coming up and I don't expect a lot of movement. My guess is that the upcoming week will have a positive bias. Summation index heading lower in a sideways band. No OEX trades in the near future. Gold was up $5 and higher in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar was higher. The gold shares and gold itself are overbought. I'll be looking for a pullback to get long. Perhaps the January calls. But nothing anytime in the next week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. It's a time to be patient in my opinion. Just let Thanksgiving week pass and go from there. I could be wrong but that will be the game plan. It's the weekend and time for a break.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Dow lost some ground today as it fell 93 points. It was worse than that but you can't keep this market down so it seems. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. We're still in a sideways mode in my opinion. The summation index should move back to the downside with todays action. We're going to be oversold here with regards to the market soon if not already. No time to be taking on any big or even small positions. Holiday week to follow. Gold sold off and came back, finishing the day flat. The XAU gained a point. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The dollar was higher today. There's no keeping the gold shares down at this point. They sold off and came all the way back. Good relative strength compared to the overall market as well. It won't last forever but that is the scenario at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No trades on the horizon at the moment. I think that I'll let next week pass and take it from there. Perhaps the gold shares if we get a pullback. Expiration tomorrow and we'll see how it goes.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Tried to sell off again and the Dow only lost 11 points. Advance/declines were negative again and the volume was nothing special. Moving sideways here basically but that could change soon. Not that I have any idea of which way we'll go. Summation index still heading higher. No OEX trades in the works and I'll consider it a victory if I don't make a trade before Fridays expiration. Gold ended up a couple of bucks but was higher early. The XAU lost 2 3/4. ABX lost 1 1/3, GG off 2/3 and NEM dropped a touch. Volume was average. These shares really need to take a rest and I am no longer looking at the calls there. For now that is. If we get a decent pullback then I am ready to try that trade again. The dollar lost ground today as it is also basically moving sideways here as well. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired today. Just a couple days left before the expiration and then a holiday week. I think it's time to be relaxed and take it easy. Perhaps there will be a good trade for the December cycle but there is not reason to put it on now. No clear signals and most everything is overbought. So I'm going to try and sit tight for now.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Opened lower and closed higher as the Dow gained 30 points. Nothing seems to stop the market at this point. Volume was weak however and the advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading higher. There's usually a positive bias during expiration week and we've seen that so far. I'm trying not to make a trade here but I am leaning to the short side. Risk is very high with 3 days to go though. Gold also sold off and came back to be unchanged on the day. The XAU was up a point. ABX gained a buck, GG was flat and NEM rose about 1/2. Volume was light. The dollar had a bounce and the gold shares hung in there pretty well despite that. I'd love to try something on the long side here as well but again, there's only 3 days to go. So hopefully I'll just ride this week out on the sidelines and go from there. But you never know. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well again. Trying my best to not do anything stupid here. Holiday week coming up as well. Patience is king at the moment. The stock market continues higher and it looks like that is the path of least resistance. Volume hasn't been that good lately and that would be a concern going forward if it doesn't pick up. So we'll see.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Expiration week begins with a decent gain as the Dow was up 136 points. Volume was average while the advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index will be back to the upside and the path of least resistance will be higher. Unless something dramatically changes in the near term. I have no OEX trades in mind here. Gold made another new all time high, up $22. The XAU rose 5 1/4 points. All the gold shares that I follow here were higher with NEM leading the way, up 1 1/4. ABX was up over a buck and GG remains the laggard gaining 2/3. Volume was average. The dollar continues lower and there is nothing to stop the long gold trade from working at this point. We are extremely overbought on gold though both short and medium term. We should at least see some sideways action here soon. That could be the opportunity to get long some January calls. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I'll try and not do anything stupid this week but you never know. The short term time frames are not my best. That said if something catches my eye I may put on a trade. But the risk is high and perhaps the sidelines will be where I'll stay. Thanksgiving week coming up next so there will be no rush to try the December options. We'll look for follow through in the market tomorrow.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 93 points. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive and the volume was light again. Moving sideways for now as the market decides which way to go. Option expiration week coming up. It's a tough call just which way we will go here. The prudent thing to do is to stay on the sidelines until there is a decent signal. That's the way I'm leaning right now. Could change over the weekend. Gold was back up as well, $10 to the plus side. The XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX and GG gained a buck, while NEM led the way again, up over 1 1/4. Volume was average for lately. Not sure I'll try the gold share calls here now but you never know. The optimum time has passed really. The dollar was back down today. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. With 5 days to go on this option cycle, the trading gets compressed and that really isn't my best time frame. But what is, this year? It looks like we could just have a sideways period next week. The summation index is not trending at the moment either. The smart thing to do could be just wait and see. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing. So I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. Time for a couple days off and some rest.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Finally a little decline as the Dow lost 93 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index should be pointing down now again. Perhaps we are just starting to work off the short term overbought condition. Expiration week looms though. The smart play for me here is probably to stay on the sidelines. That doesn't mean I will though. Gold took a drop too, down $8 on the futures. The XAU fell almost 5 points. ABX and GG both lost over a buck while NEM led the way down, off 1 1/2. Volume was average. If I'm going to try the gold share calls, this could be the place to try. I may leave in an overnight order. It's risky though. The dollar had a good day and that figures into the mix. 6 days left on the November options. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. We've gotten some decline today. The question is whether it's just a short term move before we head higher next week or something else. I'll have to look at things tonight and figure out if a trade here is worth the risk.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Dow continues higher, gaining another 44 points. Volume remains on the light side. Advance/declines were positive. Just how much higher will we go before we at least get some type of pullback? Not much in my opinion but I'm not looking to get short here. There obviously is plenty of money around looking for a home. Expiration week coming up as well and that usually has a positive bias. Gold was up $15 today but the gold shares lagged. The XAU rose a point. NEM was up 3/4 but ABX and GG only had fractional moves. All were much higher early. Volume was average. I might still try the gold share calls if we get a pullback. Or not. The dollar opened lower and closed higher. But it wasn't dramatic and the trend there is still down. Mentally I'm feeling better, slept OK. 7 days until the November expiration. The market is overbought here and staying that way. I don't think getting some OEX puts here is the correct play but I could be wrong. Perhaps on a short term basis. I'm on the sidelines for now.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

The Dow tried to sell off today but instead gained another 20 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. We're still overbought here but that doesn't mean we won't stay that way. No OEX trades for now. I'd look for some weakness near term. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. But the market will go where it wants. Gold was up a buck and the XAU rose 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all moved fractionally on good volume. The gold shares tried to sell off and came back as well. I still may try the gold share calls for November again. We are overbought here as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Did not feel well last night and took the last half of today off. Luckily the market didn't do much today. Still not feeling 100%. Will try and rest up tonight and get back at it tomorrow.

Monday, November 09, 2009

Powering to the upside to start the week as the Dow gained 203 points. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive however the volume was light. This rally has everything but volume but you cannot argue with price. Todays action should turn the summation index higher and the trend will be to the upside. We are short term overbought here. But I would not try to short things here. Gold was up another $5 today and the gold shares soared with the XAU up 7 points. ABX and NEM were up around 1 1/2, while GG was the star of the day, up 2 3/4. All on heavy volume. The trend here is up but we are short term overbought as well. If we get any pullback I'll try the gold shares calls again for November. The dollar got clobbered today and that trend remains down. Money is and has been flowing into gold. That's the play for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept longer. It looks like we will head higher into the November expiration unless something dramatically changes here. I am lamenting getting stopped out of the GG trade. I did have a feeling of it possibly being a super trade and it could have been. But I have to move on and I am. It's happened before. It does let you know that there are excellent money making opportunities in the game. That's why we play.

Friday, November 06, 2009

The Dow gained 17 points today after the employment report. Volume looks to be a bit light again and the advance/declines were about even. The employment report has come and gone. It really didn't do much to the market when all was said and done. The summation index is trying to turn around here. We'll see if it does. Overbought now on a short term basis. Gold continues to the upside gaining another $6. The XAU rose 3 points. ABX and GG gained about a buck. NEM up 1 3/4. Volume was good. The dollar didn't do much. The gold shares are overbought as well but continue higher. I'll try the calls again if we get any type of pullback. Money is flowing there. Mentally I'm a bit tired today. I did have a winning trade this week but it should have been much better. There's still 2 weeks to go on the November options and I'll probably try something else. But you never know. I need to do the work over the weekend and get ready to be focused on next week. My thinking is we will get some type of pullback in the overall market next week and then head higher into the expiration. Barring some unforeseen event. The weekend has arrives and it's time for a break.

Thursday, November 05, 2009

A pre-employment report rally as the Dow gained 203 points on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. I expected a wait and see type of day but no. Does this bode well for the report tomorrow? We'll see. Summation index trying to turn back up. Perhaps the decline is over. Still 2 weeks left on the options for November. We'll have to see if there is follow through tomorrow. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU rose a point. ABX and GG had fractional moves to the upside, while NEM was flat. Volume was lighter than usual. The GG earnings had a muted effect. I may try the gold shares one more time here in November. If we get a bit of a pullback in gold. Could be risky though. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. With the action in the overall stock market this week it appears that the decline is over. Once the summation index turns up we should move to new recovery highs. I'm not sure gold will follow, considering we gained 200 points today and the gold shares barely budged. So there's things to think about as usual. I was considering trying some GE calls here as well. But let's see tomorrows report and reaction first.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

We opened up strong and rallied after the Fed but then gave most of it back. The Dow gained 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up well over 100 points a couple of times. The Fed said nothing new so now we wait for the employment report on Friday. Summation index still pointing down but it might be trying to turn up soon. The overall market was weaker today as we flip flop with that scenario day after day. Gold had another good day and another record high. We were up $8 in the aftermarket. The XAU only gained 1 1/3. The gold shares were mixed with ABX and NEM up about a buck on strong volume. GG was the laggard and lost 1/4 on good volume. GG was weak all day ahead of the earnings and I was stopped out of the GG call trade. I moved the stop up after seeing the weakness. I kind of wish I still was in the trade. The dollar was weaker today and should head even lower. Gold is rallying strong. GG was weak all day and my stop was barely hit. The trade gained about 150% but I feel it could and should have been much more. Who knows, I may try it again before expiration. Not sure why GG was the weakest of the bunch but that's the one that I owned and you just have to deal with it. We'll see how it reacts to the earnings. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. The market remains volatile here. Might stay that way for a while. I wouldn't expect much movement tomorrow ahead of the employment report but anything can happen. I'll try to put the GG trade behind me and move on. It was one of the rare winners for this year.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

It was pretty much a sideways day as the Dow lost 17 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. It looks like we are waiting on the Fed tomorrow. Summation index still heading lower. Technically we're still a bit oversold on a short term basis but I believe anything can happen here. The internals are the opposite of yesterday, with the overall market stronger than the Dow. So we'll see what the Fed says and how the market reacts. Gold had a stellar day and broke out to a new high, up $30. The XAU rose 10 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over 2 1/2 on heavy volume. All of a sudden the gold shares are looking better. A nice move higher on expanding volume and that is bullish. My GG calls are now firmly into the black. The dollar was higher today and it didn't matter to gold. We're not overbought on the gold shares yet but now the problem is just how long do I hold onto these calls. We've still got 2 1/2 weeks on the options. Looks like I'll be holding on to the calls through the earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept more. I still think that the market is in a precarious position here. And that will affect what happens in the gold shares. However todays action points to higher prices near term. I also can make a case for a much higher target for the gold shares here that would turn my trading year around. But that's a stretch. None the less, it is a possibility.

Monday, November 02, 2009

Volatility has returned as the Dow was up well over 100 points, gave it all back and then some, only to return to the upside. We gained 76 points on the first day of the month. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was pretty good. The overall market was not as strong as the Dow and that isn't bullish going forward. Summation index still pointing down. We've got a Fed announcement in a couple of days and the employment report on Friday. It could be one of those fasten your seat belts type of week. The trading becomes compressed, with violent moves in both directions. It could be that kind of week. Gold had a good day, up almost $20 and near an all-time high. However the gold shares did not follow with the XAU only gaining 1 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on heavy volume. They were up good early and gave it all back. That really isn't the type of price action that is bullish either. My GG calls are still slightly in the black. Anything could happen. The gold shares are following the overall market. The dollar sold off early today and also came back when the market tanked halfway through the day. This GG call trade is becoming hard to hold on to. Plus we have the earnings out after the close on Wednesday. At this rate I am probably going to wait for the earnings. But I'm not sure. The technicals are still oversold but they could just stay there. It never gets easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. The markets are starting to act a little crazy again. It makes for tough trading. There's no reason why I can't just get out of this trade and hit the sidelines. Except for the fact that you don't make any money that way. But you don't lose any either. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 250 points to close the month. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. This is not the scenario that will help my GG trade but it wasn't unexpected. Yesterday was just an oversold bounce. We closed near the low today so Monday should be interesting. Summation index still heading lower. Volatility has really picked up which should help the option premiums keep their value for a while. Anyway the trend in the overall market has changed to being down instead of up. Stay tuned. Gold sold off early but came back to be down a touch in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 5 1/2 points following the stock market. ABX and GG were down over a buck, while NEM gained 1/3. Volume was heavy. The dollar was higher today and it's possible that we are seeing a multi-week bounce there. Flight to safety trade coming back? Who knows? My GG calls almost got stopped out today but came back as did the precious metal. In retrospect I should have just sold them yesterday and perhaps even at some point today near the close. They are up just a bit. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. I'm getting the feeling that the market is speeding up here. As in the volatility has picked up so that trades must be done in a shorter time frame. At the rate things are moving I will be stopped out of the GG trade before the earnings come out on Wednesday night. So I will have to come up with a distinct game plan for early next week with regards to this trade. There will be a lot to think about over the weekend. For now it's time for a rest but there's much work to do.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Well we got the bounce as we were pretty oversold. The Dow rose 200 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Now the question is was this just a one day wonder? I'm inclined to think so. We will need to move sideways for a while before we head back up again in my opinion. But my opinion hasn't been worth much this year. Another scenario would be to continue the decline in earnest after today. End of the month tomorrow and Monday begins a new one. We'll have to see what kind of money flows appear. Gold bounced as well, up $16. The XAU gained 7 points. ABX up 2 1/2, with GG and NEM tacking on 1 1/2. Volume was a bit better than lately. My GG calls are in the black as the dollar was a bit weaker today. This GG trade is tricky. Earnings are not out until next Wednesday. I don't know if I want to hold on until then. On a daily basis there is room to move up from oversold but the shorter term indicators are already overbought. GG lagged today and that wasn't a good sign. I'll ponder things tonight. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. It was a nice bounce but where do we go from here is the question. Trading never gets easy. I may wait until Monday on the GG calls but I'll have to adjust as time goes on. Perhaps I will have to wait on the earnings. We'll see.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Continuing to the downside with the Dow losing 119 points. Advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative and the volume picked up to the downside. Oversold and staying there. I get the feeling that the tone of the market has changed. We should have had some type of bounce by now. Perhaps it is end of the month shenanigans but it seems like something more. Summation index solidly pointing down. Get OEX puts on a bounce? Perhaps. Gold lost $5 and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell over 8. ABX, GG and NEM were all off 1 1/2 on increased volume. My order for GG calls was filled. The stop-loss order has been put in. Now I'm not so sure I even want to be in this trade. However we are oversold, earnings for ABX and NEM are out tomorrow along with the GDP report. That may not mean anything though if we continue to slide. The dollar has found some buyers lately too. I may be exiting this trade sooner rather than later. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I am determined not to lose more than 50% on any trade from here on out. This had been implemented before but I would override it. No more. This will save me from the inevitable huge losses that occurred when I couldn't admit that I was wrong. The market goes where it wants and I think we're witnessing that right now. Tomorrow will be key. Deeply oversold and we need to see some upside.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Kind of a sideways type of day as the Dow gained 14 points while the overall markets were weaker. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. Summation index still pointing lower. Oversold here so I would expect at least some type of bounce soon. GDP on Thursday and that will be a mover in my opinion. Is it too late for some OEX puts? we'll see. Gold lost $7 in the futures market but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 2 1/4. ABX and NEM were flat, while GG lost 3/4. All on average volume. Earnings on Thursday as well for ABX and NEM. The dollar had a slight gain today. Oversold on the gold shares here and that has been a buying opportunity for the past few months. I'm leaving in an open order for the November GG calls. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. We are getting very oversold on the McClellan oscillator and I would expect at least some type of bounce soon. I'm getting the feeling this decline may be more than what we have seen lately but I've been consistently wrong this year. This could just be an end of October phenomenon. We'll know soon enough.

Monday, October 26, 2009

A weak start to the week as the Dow lost 104 points. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. Getting to oversold here but the summation index is still pointing down. Is this the expected correction that I've been looking for? I've said that before. The overall trend is still up for now but that could change. We've got the end of the month coming up at the end of the week. I think the GDP number this week will be the biggest data point. No OEX trades for now. Gold took a hit, down $13 on the futures. The XAU lost 6 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1 1/2 on average volume. ABX and NEM earnings out on Thursday. The dollar was higher today. There is a lot of talk about the dollar beginning to rally here, for whatever reasons. This happened a few weeks ago as well and then the dollar hit fresh lows. I did place an open order in for some GG November calls. We'll see what happens. Oversold in the gold shares here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying to gauge if this is the time to make a trade. The open order that I have placed is much lower than where the option price is at the moment. Not much risk in leaving it open for now. We'll see what Tuesday brings.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 109 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Moving sideways for now and deciding which way to go I suppose. Summation index still pointing down. Can't say I have a good feel for what's about to happen here but I'm leaning towards the lower prices argument. But who knows? We'll see the reaction to the data out next week. Gold lost a couple bucks as the dollar had a bounce. The XAU lost 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally lower on light volume with GG leading the way. Some earnings out next week. I may try the gold share calls next week. Just about getting to short term oversold there. I'll mull things over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing OK. On the sidelines and rewriting my trading rules. Still 4 weeks on the November options so this was a good week to just sit tight. I'll be checking the charts for the next couple of days and take it from there. For now it's time for a break.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Back to the upside as the Dow climbed 132 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The summation index rolled over yesterday so todays market action is puzzling. My inclination is to not believe the rally but that hasn't been the case for quite some time. We are still in a sideways channel here for the major indices. No trades on the horizon at the moment in the OEX. Gold lost $5 today as the dollar stabilized. The XAU didn't do much. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. If anything, I might try the gold share calls. Earnings out next week for ABX and NEM. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It looked to me as though the Dow was stronger than the overall market today. The advance/declines were not as strong as you would expect for a market up over 100 points. Perhaps it's a warning sign. So I'm really in no hurry to put on a trade here. I'm going over my trading rules and will be making some changes. That is something positive, hopefully, that has come from this years trading account carnage. We'll get through Friday and go from there.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

The Dow fell apart in the last hour and closed with a loss of 92 points. We were higher for most of the day. Volume looks a bit better than lately and the advance/declines were negative. Perhaps the summation index is about to fall off of the ledge. Time will tell and it will tell soon. We are long overdue for a sustained decline. But who knows? we could turn around tomorrow. Still overbought on a medium term basis. Gold was up $5 on the futures but the XAU was little changed. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. All were up over the course of the day and sold off near the end of the day as well. I'm looking at the gold shares but no trades are imminent. The dollar hit fresh lows and that is the same old story. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. No rush to trade here as my many losses this year have caused me to re-evaluate my trading methods and I'm in the process of coming up with some changes to my rules. Following the rules is tougher than making them. However the discipline that has been lacking in my trading this year must be addressed. As well as the excessive risk taking. I'm working on it.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

The Dow lost 50 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We're moving sideways at the moment. Is it a pause before we move higher? That's been the case for quite some time. We are almost at some important long term down trend lines. We will need to see volume pick up in order to break through them. I'm not sure that will happen. The summation index is moving sideways here as well, possibly forming a ledge. The market usually breaks down if that is the case. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was flat on the day, while the XAU lost almost 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around a buck on light volume. The dollar was higher today. There's nothing to suspect that the up trend in gold is in danger at the moment. I'd like to get long the gold shares at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No rush to take any positions. I'd have to get a good signal one way or the other in order to do something. Not that the signals I follow have worked out for me this year. I'm on the sidelines until further notice.

Monday, October 19, 2009

The market continues to climb as the Dow gained 96 points. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive and volume looks to be a bit light. We are at some long term weekly downtrend lines in the major indices. If we break through to the upside, it's going to be more of the same up, up and away. Hasn't happened yet but at this rate, nothing is bothering the market. We'll see what happens this week. A lot of earnings reports due out. Gold was up $6 and moved higher in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves to the upside on light volume. The dollar hit fresh lows. This song and dance remains the same. Again I wonder that this can't go on forever. But it is for now. No sense in fighting the trends. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. No trades on the horizon. An extra week in the November option cycle. We remain overbought and that hasn't produced a sustained drop in quite some time. So I'll be on the sidelines until further notice. Perhaps try something in gold if we get a pullback. But I've said that before.

Friday, October 16, 2009

A little downside today as the Dow lost 67 points on expiration Friday. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. We got some poor earnings reports from IBM and GE. At least they were viewed as poor regardless of what the numbers were. We were way overbought anyway. Summation index is moving sideways at this point. I can't say that I have a good grasp of what is going on, as I have had many losing trades this year. We can't stay overbought forever though. Gold was flat and so were the gold shares. The XAU was up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other. Volume was nothing special. The dollar was up a touch. Gold is overbought as well. I'd still like to get long here at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Another expiration has passed as we move to the November cycle. There is an extra week on the November options, so I'll be in no rush to put on a trade. I may be done for the year anyway. I'll look over things this weekend and go from there. It's time to take it easy and enjoy the weekend.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Moving yet higher as the Dow gained 47 points. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was average. Overbought on a short and medium term basis. The summation index is starting to move to the upside. I can't imagine that this can last much longer but I've been wrong all year long. Expiration tomorrow. Gold took a drop today, down $14 even with the dollar a bit weaker. The XAU fell 3 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all lost around a buck or so one way or the other. Volume was light. The inflation data today was benign which doesn't help the price of gold. It's been quite a run in gold as well. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. No trades on the horizon as I could be done for the year. Possibly breaking through to the upside of long term weekly downtrend lines. I'll need to check the charts. Volume hasn't been anything that great on this rise but you cannot deny the price movement. We'll see how we close out the week.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

The Dow took off to the upside today, gaining 145 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. I dumped the OEX puts for yet another loss. It was around an 80% loss. This is shaping up as my worst year ever, since the early days when I did not have a lot of money and would blow up my account on a regular basis. Overbought and staying there. It looks like we are breaking a long term downtrend line on a weekly basis. That is bullish. Just how high can we go? Gold was flat and the XAU as well. ABX, GG and NEM were little changed on light volume. The dollar continued lower today. Inflation data out tomorrow morning. The gold shares did not participate on the upside today and with the dollar weaker that is a surprise. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. It was another losing trade closed today. The story of my year. I'm down over 30% so far for this years trading. That could be it for me this year. Nothing is working at the moment. It's only the middle of October. I guess I'll have to take a step back and re-evaluate where to go from here. My confidence is shot at the moment. That doesn't help things. We'll see what happens tomorrow but we can't go up forever, can we?

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

We sold off early and came all the way back today as the Dow lost about 15 points. Volume was average while the advance/declines were negative. 3 days to go and my OEX puts are running out of time. However I am committed to waiting for Thursday at this point. Some data out tomorrow including the FOMC minutes. Still overbought here but that hasn't meant anything lately. Intel earnings after the bell today as well. We'll see. Gold continues with its breakout, up another $7 on the futures. The XAU rose 3 points. ABX and GG were up about 1/2 on average volume. NEM rose a bit over a point. The dollar fell again today. Everyone seems to want to be long gold now. That won't last forever. No mistaking that I missed that move though and had plenty of chances. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm somehow still believing in this OEX trade but time is running out. However I've been wrong so many times this year it could just be another false hope. I'll know in the next couple of days.

Monday, October 12, 2009

A somewhat quiet Monday as the Dow gained 20 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. I almost bought some more OEX puts today. This has been an extremely light volume rise over the past 6 days. I do not trust it to be real. My OEX puts are losers but I do believe we will be getting a decent decline between now and the close on Thursday. I purchased too early. That's my belief at the moment. Now I could be wrong and we could break out to new recovery highs again. We'll see what happens going forward. Gold continues higher as the dollar dropped today. The precious metal was up $8 today but the XAU lost 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all about unchanged on light volume. Overbought here but that hasn't meant anything for gold lately. I'd like to get long if we get a pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good. The stock market is short term overbought here and just about medium term overbought as well. I really think puts are the way to go this week, even with the expiration positive bias factor. Today was a partial holiday so we'll see how things go tomorrow when all the players have returned. No real data until Wednesday. 4 days to go on the October option cycle. I suppose that I am going to hold these puts until Thursday barring some blow-off rise tomorrow. Anything can happen in this game.

Friday, October 09, 2009

The Dow closed at the high of the day and high for the week. The Dow was up 78 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. My OEX puts are in the red. Too early I suppose. There's a bank holiday on Monday as well. I am still not a believer in this advance in the Dow. The volume is light. I could be wrong and probably am considering the year I've had. Short term overbought here now but that doesn't mean that it can't last another day or so. This trade is in trouble. Gold lost a bit today, down $7. The XAU lost around a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. That implies that the trend is still up. The dollar had a good day but the gold shares did not sell off that bad. Overbought here as well but perhaps the gold shares will move higher for the October expiration and I'm afraid that the overall market could do the same thing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'll need to figure out where to put the stop loss order in for this OEX trade so I don't get completely killed again. It's frustrating but what can you do? Expiration week is upon us and it usually has a positive bias in the beginning. I smell another losing trade. It's the weekend and I'll check the charts and go from there. Time for a rest.

Thursday, October 08, 2009

The Dow gained 61 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. We are getting short term overbought but that doesn't mean we can't stay there. However, I did purchase some OEX puts today. I believe that the volume so far this week has been light and we will roll over to the downside. The summation index did move back to the upside today and that could be a caveat. So we'll see what happens. The ideal scenario would be to hold these puts until expiration. Gold had another good day and continues to make record highs. It was up over $10. The XAU gained 2 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. I would have thought that these issues would have done better considering the move in gold. The dollar hit a fresh new low for this downside leg in the index. That looks like it was the trade to be in really. But what can you do? Gotta keep moving on. There will be other opportunities there. Mentally I'm feeling pretty tired. Did not sleep enough. Well, now I'm in another trade and hopefully I'll manage it better than the last one. The market will do what it wants. 6 days on the October option cycle. We'll see how it goes.

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

The Dow tried to sell off today but came all the way back to end the day off by 5 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were positive. My order for OEX puts was not filled overnight and I canceled it near the close. I will probably come up with another overnight order but I'm not sure that the short side is the way to go just yet. That said, the summation index is moving to neutral. We aren't short term overbought yet but we're getting there. I'll ponder things tonight. Gold was up another $4 and the XAU gained 2 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. Obviously gold was the place to be. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep long enough. 7 days left in the October option cycle. There is a chance that we just run up to new recovery highs here as well. I may stick with my original scenario though and look for some downside soon.

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Another good day for the markets as the Dow gained 131 points. Advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive while the volume was average. We've gotten a decent bounce and if my prognosis for lower prices is correct, that should be about it. However the possibility remains that I could be wrong and the decline is over. In that case we will be going on to a new recovery high. The summation index has not turned around yet so I'm sticking with the bearish case for now. I have an open order in for some OEX puts. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold had a great day, up over $20 to a new all time high. The XAU rose 10 points. I cannot believe how many times I have missed out on gold. I was there but did not have the conviction to just get long. I really need to work on that. ABX up 2, GG up 2 1/3 and NEM up 3 all on good volume. The dollar fell again and is at support. If it doesn't hold, gold will go much higher I think. However if the market turns around here and starts to fall again, the dollar will see some buying. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So gold is taking off and I'm not in it again. The weekly gold share charts looked bearish and the market just turned around. However the daily dollar chart was overbought. At any rate, where we go from here is what matters. I'm sticking with the bearish OEX scenario for the October option cycle. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Monday, October 05, 2009

We got the expected bounce today as the Dow rose 112 points. Advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive and the volume was average. It's now when things get interesting. Is this just a bounce in a decline or the start of another leg up? Answer that correctly and you' ll make some money in the next 2 weeks. I'm inclined to think that it's the former and I'll be looking to get some OEX puts this week. But that's not etched in stone. Gold had a good day on the US dollars decline. The precious metal gained $13 and the XAU rose 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a buck with GG leading the way. Volume wasn't impressive though. If my overall market weakness scenario is correct, then the gold shares will be dropping back once again. I like the gold shares still though but the weekly charts look bearish. So I'm on the sidelines there even though I put in an overnight order for some GG calls last night. Obviously it wasn't filled as the gold shares rose from the start of trading today. Mentally I'm doing OK. Slept well enough. As I looked things over this weekend it appeared that gold could be in for another short term rise here. However it looks like gold is leading the gold shares and that is never a sign of a longer term move. At least not in my experience. We'll see what happens there. I'm going to be looking at getting some OEX puts on Wednesday. That is the game plan at this point. Market action will dictate whether that trade is worth doing when the time comes.

Friday, October 02, 2009

We sold off early and tried to come back all day but the Dow closed with a loss of 21 points. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was average. Considering how weak the employment report was, it could have been worse. However we are pretty oversold here and a bounce is expected here in the next day or so. We are also at the 50 day moving average on the OEX so some type of support can be expected here. I don't think it will last though. Summation index still pointing down. Gold was up a few bucks on a weaker dollar. But it wasn't the expected rally after a weak employment report. The XAU was off about 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. They were higher early. The weekly charts look bearish for the gold shares but I did put in an order for some GG calls today and it wasn't filled. I may try again next week but we'll have to see. I need to check things out over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 weeks left in the October cycle and I'd really like to try something here. The market seems to have gotten pretty weak all of a sudden. I'm going to have to continue to believe that rallies can be shorted. If we even get a rally. So perhaps trying anything from the long side here isn't a good idea. I'm going to study the charts over the weekend and come up with a game plan for next week. For now, it's time for a break.

Thursday, October 01, 2009

Well, the decline began in earnest today as the Dow lost 203 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. Rallies can be shorted. We are pretty oversold here so a bounce is in order but it will be short lived in my opinion if it happens. Summation index pointing down. I did end up putting in an overnight order for some OEX puts but it wasn't filled. I'll wait for some type of bounce and try again. Employment report tomorrow. Gold lost $8 today and the XAU fell 7 1/2. The dollar gained some ground today. Flight to safety already? ABX lost 1 3/4, GG dropped 1 7/8 and NEM off 1 1/2. All on average volume. The gold shares are at support here and a break would not be good for the bullish case. I'll be keeping an eye on them. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. So the employment report will be tomorrows focus and we go from there. I have no idea what the number will be but it is the markets reaction that will be key. I don't plan on putting on any trades tomorrow but you never know.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

The market is trying to make up its mind here as the Dow lost about 30 points on end of the month good volume. Advance/declines were negative. The market dropped hard early and then came all the way back. That isn't really negative action. Summation index still heading lower. I'm in a bit of a quandary as to what exactly to do here. I'm still leaning to the downside but I may wait until the employment report actually comes out before I make a trade. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up $15 on the futures. However the XAU only managed a 2 point gain. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. The dollar was weaker and oil had a good day. So what should I do with the gold shares? If my downside scenario proves correct, there will be a cheaper entry point for a long side trade. If not, it looks like I'll miss it again. Mentally I'm a bit confused as to what to do here but I'll be giving it a lot of thought tonight and tomorrow. Could this just be another sideways consolidation before we move higher again? Or is it really going to be a correction? These questions have to be answered. Staying on the sidelines is also an option but the least desirable. There's absolutely no money to be made doing nothing. Of course you don't lose anything either. More tomorrow.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

No follow through to the upside as the Dow lost 47 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. I'm still leaning to the downside once we get tomorrow out of the way. I'm looking at the OEX puts again before Fridays employment report. That is the game plan for now. Anything could happen however. Gold was flat today but the XAU rose 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up a buck and change on average volume. The dollar was up a bit. I don't know what to make of the action today in the gold shares. End of the month positioning perhaps? I still like the gold shares and perhaps if we get them down again I'll give them a try. I'll be looking at the GG October calls. If my prognosis for the stock market to fall here happens, then it will give me a chance to pick up some of the gold share calls. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm trying to remain patient here and it is working so far. I'll need to check the summation index later tonight. I get the feeling that I am going to put on some sort of trade before Friday. What that trade is, is the question.

Monday, September 28, 2009

A Monday rally as the Dow gained 124 points on what looks like light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. Are we going to move to new recovery highs this week? I wish I knew. I'm still leaning to the downside here and may purchase some OEX puts again. Wednesday would be the day to buy them unless we just rocket up from here. Employment report out on Friday. Beginning of the month positive money flows start this week too. I haven't decided what to do just yet. Gold gained a couple bucks today, while the XAU was up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were flat today on light volume. They all were higher early. The charts don't look all that promising for the upside here but I still like the gold shares. Not just yet though. That could change by the end of the week. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. There is some indecision here on my part. I'm going to have to let the market tell me what to do. I don't trust light volume rallies and that is what today looks like. The summation index hasn't turned around yet either but that doesn't mean it can't. Also rallies that are sharp and appear out of nowhere are more of a bear market phenomenon. So there are some crosscurrents happening as far as I'm concerned at the moment. I'm going to try and stay patient.

Friday, September 25, 2009

The Dow continued to the downside with a loss of 42 points on average volume today. Advance/declines were negative. We are short term oversold here and I would expect a bounce early next week. It's what happens after that bounce that will determine what we are dealing with here. Summation index to the downside but we will have to see if it sustains that. I think it will. But we'll see. Gold lost $7 today and the XAU fell 2 1/3. ABX and NEM had fractional losses, while GG led the way with a loss of 7/8. Volume was average. Oversold on the gold shares as well but I'd like to wait to get some calls here. I'm looking at the GG calls for October. Might be a tough play though if we really get an overall stock market decline. I'll consider things over the weekend and go from there. Mentally I'm doing OK. I was able to let this week go by and that is a plus. I'll have to check the charts over the weekend and come up with something for next week. Previous declines have been met with sustained buying to new recovery highs for quite some time. We'll have to see if it is different this time. The longer term down trend lines stalled the rally here. Perhaps that is the difference. I think if we get a light volume rally early next week it could be a shorting opportunity. That's why I'm holding off on the gold share calls. We'll have to wait and see how the week unfolds. For now it's a couple of days off to rest and regroup.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Continuing a bit lower today as the Dow lost 41 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today and that's a switch from what's been going on. The summation index will now be trending lower. Getting to short term oversold. I'll vote to short the rallies now. The longer term down trend lines look like that they will hold for now. Gold lost $15 today as the dollar showed strength. ABX and NEM had fractional losses, while GG dropped over a buck. Volume was heavy in ABX, average for GG and NEM. I might get some gold share calls next week. Getting oversold on a short term basis. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well or long enough. So is the rally over? I think it is but I haven't been on target with much all year. I'm going to let Friday pass and then get some type of game plan for next week.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

A little downside for a change as the Dow lost 81 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The Fed said nothing new and we rallied but then the bottom fell out as everyone headed for the exits. 80 some points isn't much though when we've come so far already. We are up against those long term down trend lines. We'll see if there is any follow through tomorrow. Gold lost a buck today but sold off in the aftermarket. The XAU dropped 5 1/4. ABX down 1, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM fell 1 1/2 all on average volume. The dollar bounced around today and oil was weaker. I still like the gold shares and will be keeping an eye on them here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept longer. One day isn't a trend but this could be the beginning of something more sustained to the downside. It is long overdue. But we will have to wait to see what happens. It isn't easy being patient as I've said before. I really think that the best course of action for me here is to wait until next week to attempt to do something. What that something is, remains to be seen. I'll look for downside follow through tomorrow.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

It was back to the upside as the Dow gained 51 points today. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive on average volume. A waiting game on the Fed announcement tomorrow. I don't expect any surprises but you never know. Gold had a good day as the dollar lost ground. The precious metal gained $10, while the XAU rose almost 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a buck on average volume. All were higher early and pulled back which was the exact opposite action of yesterday. I still like the gold shares but will let this week pass. That is the game plan for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Not much else to say here. We've had quite a run-up in the stock market and at this point it feels like it will never go down again. But we all know better than that. The summation index is about as high as it gets. It will not continue higher forever. We'll see about the Fed tomorrow.

Monday, September 21, 2009

The Dow lost 41 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. No news to speak of really. Waiting for the Fed announcement on Wednesday. No OEX trades on the horizon for me at the moment. I would expect the market to head lower but I've been expecting that for a while. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU dropped 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. They all were off more than a buck early. The dollar gained a bit of ground today. I'd like to get some gold share calls at some point here. Exactly when is the question. A new option cycle has begun so I could just wait it out this week. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It's been a pretty slow Monday. The Internet was down here early but I had no open positions, so it wasn't a factor. There is a G-20 meeting this week but those meetings usually have a lot of talk but no real action. I don't expect any revelations from the Fed announcement in a couple of days either. So I guess it's time to be patient and look for something that presents an opportunity. I think it could be in the gold shares if there's a pullback. Time will tell.

Friday, September 18, 2009

The Dow gained 36 points today on expiration Friday. Volume was average while the advance/declines were positive. How long can the rally last? Summation index heading higher but it's about as high as it gets. Overbought and staying there as well. I certainly don't have the answers at this point. Rolling into the October option cycle. I'm staying on the sidelines for now. Gold lost 3 bucks and the XAU dropped 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all off around a buck on average volume. The dollar was a touch higher today. My thinking is that my next trade will be in the gold shares. That's the idea for now. Could change of course. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. So I booked another sizable loss this week and am moving on. Or trying to at least. The trading is never easy but that is the nature of the beast. We are just about at some long term down trend lines in the major indices and we moved back up here pretty fast. I cannot believe that we are just going to continue higher here through these trend lines without some type of consolidation or pullback. But I have been wrong on my market prognosis a lot this year. I'll look things over this weekend and take it from there. For now it's time to step back for a couple of days and clear my mind heading into next week. A break and some rest should do the trick.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

The Dow took a pause today as it lost 7 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was expiration heavy. It has been quite a run and who knows if it is over? However we are approaching some key down trend lines on the major indices and the summation index is about as high as it ever gets. So we'll see what happens. We certainly have gone quite some time without some sustained selling. Gold lost around $6 on the futures. The XAU dropped 3 points. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was off over a buck. Volume was pretty good. The dollar lost more ground but not much. I think my next trade will be in the gold shares. It was a valid break out to the upside in my opinion. GE closed lower today on very heavy volume and perhaps it will lead the way lower from here or at least sideways for the stock market. GE has been very strong as of late. Mentally I'm moving on from the latest horrible trade and looking forward to getting it right the next time. You take your shot and move on in the game. It hasn't been a good trading year as I've stated here numerous times. There's still the 4th quarter to go and I'll try my best to get things right. Expiration Friday tomorrow.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

The market relentlessly continues higher as the Dow gained 108 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Very overbought and staying there. Everything that I thought was supposed to happen, didn't. Summation index heading higher but we are getting up to where it should turn around again. But who knows in a market like this? I'm on the sidelines and staying there for now. Gold moved higher, up $13 as the dollar sets new lows for this down leg. The XAU gained 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume. I suppose I should have just paid attention to the gold market. I will from here on out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Is the rally here an expiration related event? We'll find out in time. Often times September starts out one way in the first half and then does just the opposite in the second half. It's half over today so we'll see what happens from here. Not much else to report from here. Losing will do that. It's a confidence game a lot of the time. Right now I have none. I'll have to regroup. When the technical signals don't work, then it's time for me to step aside. We'll see how the week closes out.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Continuing higher as the Dow tacked on another 56 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and volume was average. I could not wait any longer and sold the OEX puts I had for an 85% loss. It was not a good trade to say the least. Even though I expect tomorrow to be a negative day, these puts were so far out of the money by now that it would not have mattered. Unless we get some type of collapse in one day and I doubt that. I almost bought some other OEX puts today but I figure with the loss that I just took, it might be best to lay low for a while. Tomorrow should be a down day and I can't fathom any other scenario. Gold was up $5 and continued higher in the aftermarket as the dollar got even weaker today. The XAU gained 4 points. ABX was up 1/2, while GG and NEM both gained over a buck. GG led the way. Obviously I should have gotten some gold calls on that first 2 day pullback but I was preoccupied with the OEX trade. Mistakes are rampant for me in this trading year so far. GE had another huge up day on heavy volume. Is GE returning to bellwether status? Who knows. Mentally I'm not feeling so hot. Losing trades will do that. But you've got to move on. Today would have been the day to get some OEX puts. I really believe that. That fact that I did not represents yet another thing that needs to be worked on. 3 days left before expiration and I am quite convinced tomorrow will be weak. My work points to it. But after just having booked a loss, I didn't have the guts to try again. The battle is always with oneself. Right now I'm losing that battle.

Monday, September 14, 2009

An interesting expiration Monday as the Dow gapped down at the open only to come all the way back and end the day up 21 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. My OEX puts are almost worthless. I'm still a believer of a decent downside move by Wednesday but it won't be enough to save these puts. It's painful but it's all part of the game. Overbought and staying there as the usual positive expiration week bias takes hold. It's just another mistake of the many for me this year. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU fell 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on lighter than lately volume. The dollar didn't do much today. I'm laying off gold for now but I still like it longer term. I will note that GE was up pretty good percentage wise today on heavy volume. It's lending support for an already overbought market. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not feeling good about another losing trade though. My prognosis was wrong and there was a chance of that happening as usual. Perhaps I should have waited for a better technical set up. I think what happened was that after a good trade I felt that whatever I did next would work just as well. Obviously that was not a good line of thinking. I'll have to guard against that in the future. In retrospect, I could have just held on to the OEX calls that I bought and made even more of a profit. Hindsight is always correct. On to Tuesday.

Friday, September 11, 2009

A quiet 9/11 as the Dow lost 22 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. I am still holding my OEX puts at a loss. Normally I would have dumped them already but I firmly believe that we will be heading lower at the beginning of next week. Probably not enough to make the puts I have profitable but perhaps I can get a better price to cut the loss. It is going to be expiration week so we'll see what happens. We are still short term overbought. Gold was up $10 and closed above $1000. The dollar hit a fresh new low today. The XAU gained 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume for lately. The gold shares should have done better today. At least that was my thinking. I still like them longer term and will be looking to buy if we get some weakness. Overbought here though so I'm trying to be patient. Mentally I'm doing OK could have slept more. So we head into expiration week and I'm holding a losing OEX trade. Summation index heading higher and I am bucking that trend. Not a good thing. I'll check things out over the weekend but there is a glaring negative divergence on the RSI for the major averages. I believe we will break down from here and it will be bigger than is expected. It may not happen next week but it should before the month is out. Or things will turn around and we will head to 10000 on the Dow. But I don't think that is the scenario ahead. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's time for a break.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

The market remains in rally mode as the Dow gained 80 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. My OEX puts are dead. Summation index heading higher and the market closed on its high. Overbought and staying there. You can't fight that. Another mistake in trading, perhaps because I had just done a decent trade I hurried into the next one. 6 days to go on these options but I'm not optimistic. Gold was flat today but the XAU rose 5 points. The gold shares had dropped 10% in 2 days. Volatility has returned there. ABX, GG and NEM were all up a buck or more. Volume was extremely heavy in ABX but not much for the others. I suppose that I'll go back to thinking about getting long the gold shares. May have to go out a couple of months though. I don't think it would be prudent to try the September cycle at this point. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So we head to the end of the week and I'm in a losing trade that is running out of time. Not the best of situations. I'll have to see how tomorrow unfolds and go from there.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

The rally continues as the Dow gained 50 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. My OEX puts are losing money. I canceled the stop loss order and it would not have been hit today. Perhaps my prognosis was wrong, at least that seems to be what the market it saying here. Today was the day to purchase the puts in my opinion and I almost bought some more. But sanity returned and I'm taking enough risk here as it is. Perhaps I should have payed more attention to the move in GE, which sometimes is a leader. It has gone up big for 2 days on heavy volume. We'll see. Gold was down around $3 on the futures and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 4 1/2. ABX announced a restructuring deal which will dilute the share price by issuing more stock. It fell 2 1/2 on extremely heavy volume. GG was off 1 1/2 and NEM fell about 3/4. Volatility has returned with a vengeance to gold. I'd be thinking of getting long GG here if I wasn't involved with the OEX trade. Perhaps. The dollar fell again but gold didn't rise so we're getting some crosscurrents here again. Mentally I'm doing OK. It's looking more and more that this OEX trade was not timed properly and it may be prudent to just get out. We are about short term overbought here though. Timing is always key with the indices and I believe that I was a day early. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

The Dow continued to the upside by 56 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. I suppose I should have held those OEX calls for another day. But it doesn't matter now. I bought some OEX puts today. It is a risky trade but they all are. The summation index will move to the upside today but I think that it will be a sideways move before we head lower. I could be wrong. The option premiums on the puts remained higher compared to the calls for the OEX. We'll see what happens. Gold was up a couple bucks but opened much stronger. We were over $1000 but pulled back. The XAU gained 1/4 after being up 7 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses after being much higher. The volume was heavy and it was a one day reversal to the downside. The dollar was weaker but gold could not hold its gains. Oil was higher as well. I don't know what it all means but I will get long the gold shares as we snap back to the breakout point. It won't be easy though. I'll have to go over things later today. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. So now it's the OEX puts to keep an eye on. The stop-loss order is already in. This may not have been the best set up technically but I believe it could work until the market proves it otherwise. That could be as soon as tomorrow.

Friday, September 04, 2009

The upside continued today as the Dow gained 96 points. Advance/declines were almost 4 to 1. The volume was light however. It could be holiday related or it could be that this is just a bounce. My thinking is that it's the latter. But who knows? We'll find out going forward. I did sell the OEX calls I bought yesterday for a 60% gain. Finally a trade that I did some things correctly. We could move higher on Tuesday but I'll be focusing on getting short. Gold lost a buck but it has been quite a week. The XAU followed the overall market and was up 2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on lighter volume. If we get some type of pullback, I'll try the gold share calls. The breakout is for real in my opinion. There is also a chance we just go straight up for the September option cycle as well. I really needed to be quicker there and perhaps more focused. The dollar lost some ground today. The employment report showed less job losses than expected which helped the overall market. But I get the feeling a lot of participants were leaving early for the last long holiday weekend of summer. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept better. A decent trade helps things going forward as well. I'm sticking with the prognosis that the decline isn't over and I'll be looking at the OEX puts next week. Plenty of things to look over during the long weekend. For now it's time for a break.