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Friday, September 11, 2009

A quiet 9/11 as the Dow lost 22 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. I am still holding my OEX puts at a loss. Normally I would have dumped them already but I firmly believe that we will be heading lower at the beginning of next week. Probably not enough to make the puts I have profitable but perhaps I can get a better price to cut the loss. It is going to be expiration week so we'll see what happens. We are still short term overbought. Gold was up $10 and closed above $1000. The dollar hit a fresh new low today. The XAU gained 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume for lately. The gold shares should have done better today. At least that was my thinking. I still like them longer term and will be looking to buy if we get some weakness. Overbought here though so I'm trying to be patient. Mentally I'm doing OK could have slept more. So we head into expiration week and I'm holding a losing OEX trade. Summation index heading higher and I am bucking that trend. Not a good thing. I'll check things out over the weekend but there is a glaring negative divergence on the RSI for the major averages. I believe we will break down from here and it will be bigger than is expected. It may not happen next week but it should before the month is out. Or things will turn around and we will head to 10000 on the Dow. But I don't think that is the scenario ahead. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's time for a break.

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