Tuesday, May 31, 2005
Back to work Tuesday with a loss of 75 points on the Dow. However the volume was light and the advance/declines were actually positive. I think it was end of month profit taking. Of course I don't know for sure but it sure seems that way. GE was down an touch and looking at those charts doesn't do much for a trade there. The dollar rallied strongly but gold didn't move much. In fact the XAU sold off hard early and then came all the way back. Something is happening here but I just can't put my finger on it. Gold should have gotten killed today but it didn't happen. It is puzzling. I have missed this move in the XAU but the volume is there and I suppose I'll be looking to get long on any decent pullback. We'll see. I'm not so sure about the OEX but I'm leaning to the long side. It's a tricky call one way or the other. I really don't have anything decent on my radar screen. Perhaps the best course of action will be to remain on the sidelines until I can get my head together. It's coming around but I still don't like the outcome. However I at least have to be honest with myself. I didn't expect anything like what has happened with me mentally lately. It just sorta came out of nowhere. I'm dealing with it but it will probably take some more time. It can't be helped. It just goes to show you that you never know what to expect. More tomorrow.
Friday, May 27, 2005
Up 5 points on the Dow in a pre-holiday session. Volume was extremely light and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Ho hum. The XAU zoomed 3 points on good volume due to the failing health of the leader of Saudi Arabia in my opinion. Gold itself was only up a buck. So I have missed a golden opportunity and it pains me. There is nothing I can do about it now. But still when chances like this come around and you don't get in on them it is very frustrating. Yes, there will be other trades down the road. But between missing the May expiration OEX trade and now this, I can't express in words my disappointment with myself. If trading truly is the focus than it really has to be. I can not let outside influences dictate my commitment to the business. Emotionally, it just can't work that way or it will lead to more periods like this. And this isn't why I'm involved in the markets. I really don't know what to say. I've got to somehow pull it back together and get on with it. How I will do this, I don't know. I can't sit on the sidelines forever. These are really troubling emotional times for me. It just doesn't make sense. But it is what it is and I have no choice but to keep on going and see where it leads. Perhaps the weekend will clear things up. I doubt it...
Thursday, May 26, 2005
Up another 80 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. We are now moving into holiday mode. The next 2 trading sessions shouldn't mean much. Just staying overbought at this point. Gold was down a touch on a revised GDP which was stronger. Gold shares were weaker on light volume. Perhaps I will do something there. I'm looking to go out to July. But it might be too late. GE did not move much higher today with the market and that always gets me thinking that the move isn't reliable, short term. Still trying to get my mind right to do what's necessary. It's getting better as I come to grips with the inevitable reality. It's all up to me. I think it's getting better but the focus is not there. I am lucky enough to be sitting it out for now. Some markets close early tomorrow so expect a light volume nothing affair tomorrow. Same tune for comeback Tuesday after Memorial day.
Wednesday, May 25, 2005
We lost 45 points today on the Dow. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was light. I did at one point put in an order for some GE June calls. GE lost a little ground today. But I canceled the order. There is no clear signal and I'm anticipating some more weakness in the market near term. The XAU continued to rise and the volume on the gold shares is pretty good. I'm going to have to wait there, since I really have missed that move. Like I said earlier, it would probably be better to wait until after the holiday weekend to take on a trade. I'm not really looking at anything else right now. Just trying to stay calm and not do anything stupid.
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
The Dow lost about 20 points on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. We remain overbought and this could go on for a while. But it won't last forever. The Nasdaq has been up 8 days in a row. It has been over 5 years since that happened I think. Gold did not move, the dollar was higher but the XAU rose 2 points. I have probably missed that move. I am extremely disappointed. I was there at the bottom and didn't do anything. It is frustrating. My mind needs to be focused but that just hasn't been the case. I just can't help it. This is one of the rare and I mean rare times in my life where the concentration just isn't happening. I do know why but I do not want to put it in print. That said, I will try and do my best here but I do know that going forward will be difficult for now. I will try and make the best of it and not get too disappointed but it is tough. The game is hard enough as it is. You throw in some outside influences and it becomes downright impossible. That is why I have scaled back here. That doesn't make it right or any easier to take. But it is what must be done with the circumstances as they are. Opportunities are being missed. That hurts. But to take on any risk here might be a bad move. I thought my head was clearing up but I guess it will take a little longer, hopefully.
Monday, May 23, 2005
The Dow was up 50 points for a Monday. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. We are overbought and staying there. I think it is a good sign for the next few weeks. That said, we are due to pull back here and now. The last hour saw some selling and I think it will continue for the next few days. There doesn't seem to be a lot of sellers anywhere at the moment but that should change with a little weakness. Gold was down and the XAU up. I will be looking at ABX for July calls. That should give them enough time to work. The dollar was down today. Mixed signals. But I think the gold shares have sold off enough and I will be keeping an eye on them. GE is another story. I'm still fresh from getting burned in the last attempt to make money there. So I'm not so sure about GE. Moving along to my mental state, it really isn't exactly where it needs to be. The focus and concentration isn't what it needs to be. I'm trying. I'll have to stay on the sidelines until I can get it worked out. Yes, I'll be watching ABX but I really need to get my act together. I'm thankful at least that I can recognize that there is a slight problem. OK, maybe not slight but still there is something going on that I am having a hard time coming to grips with. I can't be as focused right now. But I need to be, there is no question about that. I certainly will not kid myself that there is nothing going on. There is and I've got to deal with it before I can really move forward with the trades again.
Friday, May 20, 2005
It was a very light volume expiration. The Dow lost around 20 points on negative advance/declines. Gold was down a few dollars and the XAU lost a point. The dollar rallied as Greenspan spoke of a housing bubble which could infer higher rates. Another cycle has ended. I can't say that I did a good job. I may enter a GE trade again if we get some weakness there nearterm. Not sure. Would like to get long gold but again, the trend there has turned and it might be best to stay away. I cannot get anxious. I have got to try and stay patient. Discipline must be exercised. It's hard to do but it must be done. Most likely it would be best to wait until after Memorial Day weekend before putting on the next trade. We also could be entering a period of sideways chop again. The summation index is pointing to the upside though and any plays should be to the longside. For now, the weekend is upon us and I will take it easy. Check the weeklies etc. I also need to look into the ADX indicator. Until next week...
Thursday, May 19, 2005
The market continued higher today, up about 30 points. Advance/declines were positive but the volume was light. I suspect it will keep going higher into the expiration. I have no trades on and won't have any until the June cycle. Gold was down and the XAU dropped a bit. I'm going to wait on that market for now. The dollar was higher. I'm thinking of trying another GE trade if we get some pullback. Not sure. It's just time to be patient I believe. Opportunities here were missed so there is really nothing else to do at this point but wait. Not much else to say about today.
Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Dow soars over 130 points on expanding volume. Breaks through the 50-day moving average with ease. Advance/declines over 3 to 1 positive. Missed opportunity. It kills me. I can't really beat myself up over it but I do. There is no excuse. The focus and attention needed for success just wasn't there. It should have been. Gold did not move up today and the dollar was weaker. But the XAU was up over 2 points at one point today. Another missed move. Why? Just not good enough. Had the right idea and could not take advantage of it. Probably some carryover from the recent losing streak. Confidence breeds success and vice versa. When you're in a bad way it will tend to stay there. Somehow you need to regain what you lost mentally. That's why it is such a difficult game. It is all up to you. The markets are just there. Where I go from here is up for discussion. I can't continue to dwell on what could have been or I will not see what's coming ahead. I will just have to keep on doing the work and take my chances when I deem them appropriate. There is really nothing else I can do. My mind is close to being back where it needs to be but it is not there yet. The ongoing battle within myself continues...
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
The Dow up another 80 points on about 2 to 1 positive advance/declines. What can I say? Volume was a little light but the upside continues. The calls I sold on Friday are now actually in the black. Hindsight is not easy. But I can't get down on myself for doing what I did at the time. At least my ideas are starting to have some merit again. I hate missing out on opportunity though. It reminds you of just how tough this game really is. Gold was up today and so were the gold shares even though the dollar rallied at the end of the day. I needed to be quicker on that yesterday too. Probably just a bounce but I will be looking to get long on weakness. It was blown out to the downside and I would like to see a better base before committing funds. Could have had a double there if my orders would have been filled yesterday. Frustrating at times but that is the nature of the beast. Still 3 days before expiration and I think it will run up until the end. About to reach the 50-day moving average so that will be key as to how high we go. If it busts through there we will be going much higher in no time. So I'm just waiting for something else to present itself as my confidence is returning.
Monday, May 16, 2005
A day late. The Dow soared 112 points today. Volume was OK for a Monday and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Sometimes you're just a little off with the timing. That is what happened on the last trade. It may prove to have been a winner if I had held on to it but at the time it had to be sold. In retrospect I should have moved to the other strike price that was closer to being in the money. But I had already had in the overnight order. The idea and the theory were right but the timing was a bit off. And so it goes. I put in 3 different orders for the XAU to day as it looks like this has reached bottom. But none were filled. My thinking is that the inflation numbers of the next 2 days will be tame and the dollar will sell off some. Again, this is just a guess but the technicals are blown out to the downside on the gold shares and I am just looking for a bounce with 4 days to go before expiration. Gold itself was down around a buck today. All uptrend lines have been violated in these issues and it is important to remember this is a bounce move. Any profit would have to be taken quickly as would any loss. I'm not sure I should even be doing any trades here but I would like to get something done on the plus side. Of course the XAU could keep dropping and that would add up to another loss but this seems as good a time as any to give it a shot. The media is now hyping the fact that metals are being sold off and that usually means it's the bottom. Getting back to the overall market, the summation index perhaps is again pointing upwards after todays action. It's never good to miss a move but at least my brain is getting back together after being out there somewhere for the past couple of months it seems. I still need to work on the discipline and motivation necessary for success. Usually it's not a problem but it has been lately. Perhaps an overnight order for the XAU is what I'll attempt. We'll see...
Friday, May 13, 2005
Interesting day yet a losing one for me. The Dow lost 50 points on increased volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. My OEX order got filled this morning. The market did rally after the purchase but then turned around and was down over 100 points. I had to bail out to cut the loss. Not a lot of money in this trade and it was a 50% loser. Could not afford to hold on with just a week left. Perhaps it was just another dumb move but sometimes you have to take your chances. And who knows, I might put another trade on next week. There is some going on under the surface though and I can't quite put my finger on it. There is a lot of liquidation going on as somebody or something needs to raise cash. Perhaps there is some hedge fund problems about to unfold. The summation index should turn down with todays action and that won't bode well either. Not sure what's going on and perhaps a more prudent course of action would be to sit it out. Gold dropped again today and the XAU fell on increased volume. This is a definite unwinding of positions. The dollar hit a new recovery high and that downtrend is over. I need to remember that. So todays trade was a loser. I'm not going to beat myself up over it because in the game you have got to just keep on going. It isn't easy to do. But it must be done. The weekend is now here. Time to forget about the markets for a couple of hours at least. Crazy game.
Thursday, May 12, 2005
The Dow lost 110 points on increased volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. More hedge fund nervousness. Oil and gold dropped also. My order for calls still did not get filled but it is close. Don't really know if I want them now. But sometimes you've just got to step up to the plate. 6 days until expiration so time is critical. Perhaps I will switch to something in the money. The XAU got pounded on heavy volume as the dollar hit a new high for the year I believe. The money is fleeing that market. I am glad to stand aside. Should have been short really. But I'm not losing any money over there. Sometime later this year that will be a good place to get long. I'll keep an eye on it. I guess I'll see what happens tomorrow but there may be something going on here that I'm just not picking up on. The volume has contracted this week and will have to pick up on the upside tomorrow for my scenario to play out. The expiration week sometimes gets dicey but I am going to stick with my bullish bias. Might be a little early though. Or maybe I'll just sit it out until next week. Tough game.
Wednesday, May 11, 2005
We gained almost 20 points on light volume today. Advance/declines were slightly positive. We were down around 80 when there was a scare at the White House. I tried to get long there and failed. Just was not quick enough. Too much on my mind at the time as I was just not focused enough. It sucks. I do have an overnight order in for some OEX calls but not sure it will work now. Expecting a down day tomorrow to relieve some of the RSI strength. But it is a guessing game at this point. The trade number was better than expected which is what I had anticipated. The dollar rose a bit and gold sold off early then came back. The XAU continued to fall. Might try something there but the volume has dried up and that is not a good sign for that market. GE was higher today and that could be a sign of things to come for the market. Or not. I'm still holding to the belief that we will work higher into the expiration. There was no hedge fund worries today but there is always a chance that could resurface. Summation index pointing up to higher prices and I will work off of that. I will probably get long on any weakness tomorrow unless it's a rout which I am not looking for. The ideal situation would be a retest of todays lows. I can hope, can't I?
Tuesday, May 10, 2005
The Dow lost a little over 100 points today on hedge fund rumors. Supposedly some funds are in trouble due to the GM debt downgrade of last week. Remains to be seen. Volume was light and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Trade data tomorrow. I'm still leaning to buying calls but would like to wait for Thursday or Friday. At least that is the thought right now. Gold didn't move much but the XAU was down almost 2 points on better volume than lately. Hedge fund capital raising? Who knows? I'm thinking that the trade number will be better than expected and gold will fall as the dollar rises tomorrow. Again, just another guess. No real reason to dump the gold shares today. The dollar was just a little weaker today. So we now have 8 days until expiration. There will be some profitable plays here, I just hope I can get in on one of them. It won't be easy. It never is. This is a crazy, crazy game. I'll try to keep it together and take my best shot.
Monday, May 09, 2005
The Dow was up almost 40 points on light Monday volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Just can't keep this market down now for some reason. I'm looking to get some OEX calls but really need to wait for a pullback, even a mild one. I'm thinking perhaps by later in the week I'll get a chance but maybe not. Gold didn't move and the XAU was up a tad on light volume. Oil was up over a dollar today. The overall market did not respond. The dollar was stronger. Critical juncture in the dollar right now. Looks like it wants to break a multi-year down trendline. We'll see. That would not bode well for gold if it happens. I'm going to stick with my get long the OEX before the expiration next week theory. I won't go overboard with the number of contracts. Summation index still pointing up and that's a plus. My mind is again getting focused on the business at hand but it's tough. I've got to somehow reign in the wandering that's going on there and get my act in the markets together. It's really been a battle lately. It's not usually as bad as it has been recently. It is always me versus myself in this crazy game. No doubt about it and that's not going to change.
Friday, May 06, 2005
The Dow gained 5 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I think we are due for a pause. If so, it will give me a shot at some OEX calls. The employment number was stronger than expected. The dollar rose and gold fell. But the XAU hardly moved by the days end. The gold shares sold off early and then made it all the way back. I'm not sure what this is saying. Volume was light there also. Perhaps we are sold out there but I do not know. GE said it would restate its earnings for the past couple of years to the plus side and it could not get going. There are still 2 weeks on the May options. I might get a chance at some type of trade in the next 2 weeks. I have an idea about what to do but doing it is another matter. The weekend is upon us. It will be time to catch up on the charts. Really need to make a good trade here for the confidence factor alone. It is all important. For how you feel about yourself and your ability is what will carry you in this crazy game. My trading has been terrible lately, so a winner is really needed. But you can't force it and you can't wish it will happen. You've got to make it happen. The only way that will occur is with discipline and patience. Will I be up to the challenge? Time will tell. The markets never cooperate with the best laid plans. Tough game...
Thursday, May 05, 2005
The market lost 45 points today on a downgrade of credit for GM and Ford. A couple of weeks ago this would have been catastrophic. But the tone of the markets has changed and so we will look for higher prices. Volume was lighter than yesterday and the advance/declines were positive. Employment report tomorrow. Should be a market mover but how much so remains to be seen. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU was down a touch. The dollar didn't do anything either. I'm keeping an eye on gold here for a possible play for June or July. Shorter term I am watching the OEX for a May trade long. I'd like to see a bit of a pullback to get long but the market never really accommodates you. GE continues lower and that makes me leery of the overall picture. But there are always crosscurrents. The summation index is headed back to the upside so that will be the path of least resistance. Not much else to write today. My head is getting back together and that should lead to profits down the road.
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
The Dow rose over 120 points today breaking the multi-week downtrend line. The trend is up. Volume was heavy and the advance/decline line was 3 to 1 positive. All signs point to higher prices. I'll hope for a pullback to get long since I have obviously missed this move. GE barely moved and the calls I used to own did nothing. I did look at OEX calls last week and did not do anything. I can handle losing money, that's part of the game. But I absolutely hate missing out on opportunities. It eats away at me. Just missed another in gold here. The XAU continues to rise as does gold and I own nothing. I was looking at NEM but the relative strength is in ABX which I had stopped looking at. It is a tough trading time for me. I just booked my biggest loss of the year in that stupid GE trade. The market has broken out and my confidence has broken down. There's still some time this month to salvage something but it won't be easy. Especially the way my mind has been acting of late. I might just stay on the sidelines. Don't know for sure. The dollar was lower today and it looks like it will be headed down from here. Again not sure. Employment report on Friday. Gotta assume that the market will trend higher regardless of the numbers at this point. And so here I am wallowing in my own self pity about dumb moves and lack of conviction. That kind of attitude won't get you anywhere. The battle is always toughest with oneself. That is what must be conquered. It is not as easy as it sounds. It never is...
Tuesday, May 03, 2005
The Dow up 5 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. We bounced around after the Fed announcement. No surprises there, up another 25 basis points. No change in the language. The downtrend line is still intact for now. I dumped the GE calls for about an 80% loss. GE was down over 40 cents on heavy volume but somehow came back in the last minute to be down 15 cents. The same thing happened in the Dow, with it down 40 points and then all of a sudden it was positive at the close. Can't explain that action but it doesn't matter now. I'm out and will go from here. The XAU had another good day and it seems like I have missed that. Perhaps we will get some pullback but I just don't know. Getting back to GE, I just can't explain it. It was a bad trade from the start. It never showed a profit. When that happens it is best just to bail out. Obviously the thinking there was wrong. That said it would not surprise me if it rallied from here. Perhaps today was the final selling. I don't know. If the downtrend line in the market gets broken then I need to be long something. Losses are part of the game but they need to be kept small. I should have left GE a long time ago. The percentage loss here is totally unacceptable. But it is what it is and the markets, the trading, will go on. Hanging on to losing trades erodes the confidence factor and takes your attention away from other things in the markets that I should be paying attention to. You end up losing a lot more than just the money. The mental capital is diminished as well. I need to regroup and get a fresh start...
Monday, May 02, 2005
Not bad volume for a Monday with the Dow up around 60 points. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We are reaching the moment of truth for this thing. We are 50 points away from the downtrend line that began 2 months ago. If we can get through that on good volume then the decline will be over for now. If we get turned away then there is more downside to sideways action. The Fed meets and announces tomorrow. All eyes will be on that and that will be the catalyst until Fridays employment report. As usual, I don't have a clue. GE was up a nickel today on light volume and that trade appears to be dead for good now. Dumb move. Gold lost over $5 today but the XAU was positive. I'm thinking about it. The dollar didn't do much. The longer term gold charts are all oversold and I an thinking of a play there. If the economy slows down the dollar should get weak again and that would bode well for gold. But the long term trend line has been broken and the volume today was nothing to write home about. I'm keeping an eye on it. Oil got back above $50. No plays there. There is always a possibility that tomorrows Fed announcement will be a non-event. It's happened before. Perhaps the market will wait for Fridays data. We'll see...