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Monday, May 02, 2005

Not bad volume for a Monday with the Dow up around 60 points. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We are reaching the moment of truth for this thing. We are 50 points away from the downtrend line that began 2 months ago. If we can get through that on good volume then the decline will be over for now. If we get turned away then there is more downside to sideways action. The Fed meets and announces tomorrow. All eyes will be on that and that will be the catalyst until Fridays employment report. As usual, I don't have a clue. GE was up a nickel today on light volume and that trade appears to be dead for good now. Dumb move. Gold lost over $5 today but the XAU was positive. I'm thinking about it. The dollar didn't do much. The longer term gold charts are all oversold and I an thinking of a play there. If the economy slows down the dollar should get weak again and that would bode well for gold. But the long term trend line has been broken and the volume today was nothing to write home about. I'm keeping an eye on it. Oil got back above $50. No plays there. There is always a possibility that tomorrows Fed announcement will be a non-event. It's happened before. Perhaps the market will wait for Fridays data. We'll see...

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