Pageviews past week

Friday, November 30, 2012

Another choppy session as we were negative for most of the day.  The Dow managed a gain of 3 points on better than average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We basically ended the month in a holding pattern.  The summation index continues higher but we remain overbought in the stock indices.  We've had an OK rise since the lows of November but I don't see any big moves one way or the other coming up.  But what do I know?  The market as always will go where it wants.  I think we need to see some kind of decline before we can move higher.  GE was flat on the day with average volume.  The short term up trend line remains intact here.  Gold fell again today, off $16 on the futures.  The US dollar finished trading unchanged.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was flat on the day.  Volume was light.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  I'll need to see some positive price movement from ABX in the beginning of December or this will be another loser.  Oversold on a weekly basis for ABX.  The daily technicals are about mid range.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are on to December.  The so called fiscal cliff is all over the media but it is just talk.  We need to listen to the markets.  Overbought right now but we could stay that way if this rally is for real.  The jury is still out on that.  We should see some positive beginning of the month money flows for stocks.  Gold had a negative week and we will need to see it turn around next week to negate the bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly candlestick chart.  That is something to keep an eye on.  Plenty of economic data out next week topped off by the Friday employment report.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

A choppy session today as the Dow finished the day with a gain of 36 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought both short and medium term on some of the technicals for the stock indices.  The over the counter stocks are outperforming at the moment and that usually means higher prices going forward.  However we need to work off some of the overbought condition before going higher in my opinion.  I do not think that this will be a straight line up, it rarely is.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  No trades in GE for now.  The gold futures rose $10 today as the US dollar was slightly weaker.  The XAU was up 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on very light volume.  Not much action in the gold shares today as we are just trying to close out the month here.  My January ABX calls remain in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  November will close out with the trading tomorrow.  A lot of price movement during the month but not much progress either way for the stock indexes.  We'll have to wait and see what happens in December.  Gold is going to end the month with very little progress as well.  The gold shares however, were well off of their best levels for the month.  This relationship needs to change if the January ABX call trade is going to turn a profit.       

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

It was a one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow gained 107 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I was expecting a bit more weakness than what we have seen.  But I could be wrong and often am.  We should move off of the GDP report tomorrow.  End of the month coming on Friday.  The technicals for the stock indices are heading to overbought.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  We got the same type of intra day reversal here as well.  We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow.  Gold took a hit today.  The futures were off over $25.  The US dollar closed a bit lower after being higher early on.  The XAU followed the overall stock market higher by 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  One day doesn't make a trend but it was nice to see from the bullish angle that the gold shares outperformed the precious metal for a change.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A bullish reversal for the stock indexes today.  We'll see if it can carry over for tomorrow.  I don't think that we have seen the end of the near term weakness yet though.  We'll see.  Not a good day for gold but I am still in the bullish camp here going forward.  Perhaps it will turn around tomorrow.  That's a guess as usual.  However the technicals for gold have turned down on the daily chart.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and wait for the GDP revision tomorrow morning. 

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Heading lower today and that isn't unexpected as the Dow fell 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We are working off the short term overbought condition of the stock indexes.  I would guess that the recently made lows would hold any decline but that is just a guess.  The summation index is still moving in a positive direction.  I feel as though we are simply taking a rest here but I do not expect any huge rally anytime soon either.  GE was off almost a 1/4 on lighter volume.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar posted gains today.  The XAU dropped 3 3/4.  ABX off 3/4, GG fell 1 7/8 and NEM shed 1/3.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  The ABX January calls that I own continue to lose value.  Plenty of time for this trade to work out and I will hold these options at least into December.  However I would like to see the price direction turn around at some point this week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple of down days to start the week and I would not be surprised if the weakness continued just a bit more.  We could be moving into a sideways trading range but only time will tell on that.  Gold fell a bit today but we are still above the rising trend line that began at the beginning of the month.  I would prefer to see the gold stocks taking the lead here but it hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, November 26, 2012

We are expecting some weakness near term and we got some today as the Dow fell 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  It was a mixed bag though because the NASDAQ actually closed higher on the day.  We were off over 100 points on the Dow during the session.  The summation index is now headed higher.  I still think we will get some more downside at some point this week.  After that, who knows?  Not a lot of data out this week but we will get the 1st revision to the 3rd quarter GDP report.  GE was flat on the day but the volume was pretty good.  We held the 200 day moving average here and that's a positive.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost a couple of bucks.  The XAU sold off early but only lost 1/3 on the day.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1/3 on light volume.  The gold shares are following the overall market at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'd expect the stock indices to take a rest this week but I could be wrong.  The rally last week was on light volume and that is not a positive going forward.  We do have the end of the month coming up on Friday.  Gold is probably due for some backing and filling as well.  I would like to see the gold shares take the lead here but it hasn't happened yet.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.   

Friday, November 23, 2012

It was a very interesting half session today as the Dow roared ahead by 172 points.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and the volume was extremely light.  Not your typical holiday half session plodding along.  It was however, a very light volume levitation all week.  Not to be trusted in my opinion.  I would not be surprised by some type of pull back early next week.  I would expect it.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume wasn't too bad.  Perhaps that bodes well for the overall market here.  That's a guess as usual.  No trades in GE for now.  Gold had a decent day as well on a weaker US dollar.  Perhaps there will be some good news out of Europe soon.  That could be what the dollar is signaling.  At any rate, the precious metal futures were up over $20.  The gold shares lagged again though as the XAU only gained 3 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on very light volume.  My January ABX calls are still in the red but by not as much.  I'll be holding on to this position at least into next month barring a catastrophe.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A nice upside week for the stock indices but the volume was anemic.  It's hard to trust light volume rallies.  But who knows?  Maybe this is the beginning of something sustained for the bulls.  I think the jury is still out though.  I'm not looking for a good year for the overall stock market next year but I'm wrong as much or more than I'm right lately.  Gold has started to move higher, perhaps back to the resistance at $1800.  I need to see the gold shares take the lead here though, for the ABX trade to work out.  Plenty of time for that trade but there is the possibility that we'll see plenty of end of the year tax loss selling there.  Just a guess as usual.  It's a holiday weekend as time to put the markets aside for a while.  We'll get back to it Monday morning. 

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

A drift higher as the Dow gained 48 points on holiday light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index should now be moving higher.  Not much to make of todays action.  You have to simply sit tight and wait for next week for the markets direction.  We are getting short term overbought on some technical indicators but not all.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  It is again the same wait around type of action.  We'll see more of the same on Friday.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures as the US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU gained 2 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1/2 and the volume was light.  The gold shares did better than the metal today but you can't read much into that during a week like this.  My ABX January calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is looking like a positive week for the stock indices but the volume is light.  So I would expect some negative action perhaps sometime early next week.  I'm not saying that we are going to fall apart or anything like that but we are not going to go up in a straight line.  Gold has held up OK this week but I'd like to see another run at $1800 soon.  I'll be holding on to the ABX January calls into December and then we'll see where things go from there.  Enjoy the holiday. 

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

A day to digest yesterdays gains as the Dow lost 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The market sold off during the session when big Ben Bernanke spoke.  Hard to get a good grip on what is going on this week since it is a holiday week and lightly traded.  You really just have to hang around until all the players return next week.  GE was flat on the day with the same light volume.  Gold dropped a bit, off $10 on the futures despite a flat US dollar.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were little changed or off just a touch.  Volume was light.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just 2 trading days left in the week and we'll close early for Fridays trade.  It is a time to simply sit tight.  The time premium will decay for the options.  I don't expect a lot of movement in the stock indices until next week barring some type of unexpected event.  It is a time to relax, go over the charts and your trading ideas.  Preparation for next week would be the prudent course of action for now.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Today we saw the bounce that we were waiting for as the Dow climbed 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 8 to 1 positive.  The reasons could be anywhere from the "fiscal cliff" positive thoughts or the European mess suddenly sorting itself out.  Doesn't matter.  We were technically in an area that should of seen a bounce earlier than this, so it was bound to show up sooner or later.  Where we go from here is what matters.  Today had everything but the volume but it is a holiday week.  We'll see if we can build on this for the rest of this week.  GE had a gap to the upside and gained 1/2 on the day.  Volume was average.  The 200 day moving average held for GE, unlike the major averages.  Does that mean anything?  Perhaps.  Maybe GE will show better relative strength moving forward.  Gold had a decent day as the US dollar was weaker for a change.  The precious metal futures rose almost $20.  The XAU gained 4 7/8.  ABX up 1/2, GG added 1 1/8 and NEM higher by 2/3.  Volume was light.  I would have liked to see ABX move better with such a good day in the markets but was not to be.  My ABX January calls are still in the red.  I'm willing to give this trade some time to work as we are still oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a rally so we will have to see how the rest of the shortened week plays out.  The volume was light and we don't trust light volume rallies.  So we'll see.  Gold continues to outperform the gold shares and that isn't a positive going forward.  I will say though that if ABX can hold up here in the next couple of weeks, there is a chance that this trade will work itself out.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what goes on overnight and take it from there. 

Friday, November 16, 2012

The market is trying to hold in here but the rally attempt has been weak so far.  The Dow rose 45 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  Those numbers will move the McClellan oscillator from the deeply oversold condition but the accompanying price movement was tepid.  We have a holiday week coming up and there is really no reason to buy stocks.  I would like to see more of a decent snap back before I believe the decline is over.  Hasn't happened yet.  The technicals remain oversold.  GE didn't do much again on average volume.  Hovering around the 200 day moving average here.  Gold didn't do much today but the US dollar closed up for the day after being much higher during the session.  The XAU gained 1 1/3.  ABX and NEM had fractional gains, while GG had a fractional loss.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My ABX January calls are underwater.  It looks as though I have bought these calls too early.  Plenty of time for this trade to work but it already has the feel of a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that the stock indices went lower into the expiration today before bouncing back a little.  That was a possible scenario discussed earlier.  Where we go from here it what matters now.  The December options have an extra week on them.  We're still oversold on the technicals and still haven't seen a good rebound.  That is a problem going forward.  Gold has held up pretty good here but the gold shares have gotten pummeled.  This relationship has to change if the ABX call trade is going to work for me.  The fact that we have a lot of recent Mideast turmoil and the price of gold hasn't rallied is troublesome for the bullish cause.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend and the charts must be checked as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Thursday, November 15, 2012

The general malaise continues as the Dow fell 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Very oversold on all levels here and I would expect a snap back tomorrow or Monday.  I doubt it will be anything sustainable but at least we'll take a rest from the drop.  If that doesn't happen we may actually simply collapse but I do not think that will occur.  However we have to be aware that it could.  The market as always goes where it wants.  The McClellan oscillator is deeply oversold and it doesn't stay that way for long.  So we'll look for some type of rally attempt and go from there.  GE was up a nickel as it tries to hold on at it's 200 day moving average.  Volume was good.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell today as the futures lost $16.  The US dollar continues to meander, with not much price action.  The XAU dropped another 4 1/8.  ABX fell 2/3, GG off 1 1/3 and NEM lost 1/4.  Volume was good on the gold shares.  I bought some more of the January ABX calls and averaged down my original cost.  This is something that usually doesn't work.  However I am a believer that this trade will work out.  I could be wrong and have been wrong a lot this year.  The charts for ABX look ugly to the downside.  It very well could be the falling knife syndrome.  But when nobody else wants something it is sometimes the right time to buy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting times in the marketplace right now.  The stock indices have broken down.  There can be no denying that.  We are due for a bounce and it should come soon.  I would not be a buyer of stocks for the longer term until sometime next year.  Gold has held up rather well so far during this decline but the gold shares have not.  However there is a lot of tension in the Middle East at the moment and gold hasn't rallied.  That could be a problem for the gold bulls going forward.  We'll see.  We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.   

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Oversold and staying there is never a good combination for the bulls.  The Dow is now in the fall apart mode as we lost 185 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  No positive expiration week bias this month.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator has broken down from the -150 level.  We will now probably see a washout decline and then a snap back rally.  Within the next 3 days or so, if I had to guess.  The S&P 500 couldn't hold the 200 day moving average and followed the over the counter stocks through that level.  The game has changed and did so about a month ago.  GE fell 2/3 on heavy volume.  We've reached the 200 day moving average here.  Probably won't hold here as well.  It obviously isn't a time to own stocks and probably won't be for a while.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and fell back a few bucks in the aftermarket.  The US dollar again had very little change on the day.  The XAU followed the overall market lower and dropped 8 1/4 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost over a dollar and change on good volume.  The gold shares continue to under perform gold itself.  My open order for the January ABX calls was filled.  It is already a loser by about 20%.  Plenty of time for this trade to work itself out.  However if the overall liquidation mode continues, the gold shares will continue to fall as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much lower can we go here?  Probably lower than most think at the moment.  We may just run down into the expiration on Friday.  Rallies will most likely be sold into from now on.  Any compelling reasons to own stocks here?  The psychology of the market has changed.  Gold still is holding up rather well.  The Gold/XAU ratio is clearly in the buy zone for the gold stocks.  But we saw this before earlier this year and it did not work.  I was looking at IAG for a possible candidate for the January calls as well.  It missed on earnings last night and was clobbered today, off 20% in just one session.  Perhaps my idea on the gold shares is off the mark here as well.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

We opened lower, climbed out of that hole to be positive most of the day, only to roll back down in the final hour.  The Dow fell 59 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Oversold, staying there and that is not a good sign.  The summation index continues lower.  We closed below the important line in the sand level of 1380 on the S&P 500.  So I would have to say that we need to watch out here for a big decline.  Perhaps things can turn around tomorrow but it doesn't feel like it.  Caution would be the word that best describes the current stock market environment.  GE lost almost 1/4 on average volume.  Here too we are breaking to new lows for the move.  It looks like we are heading to the 200 day moving average at around $20.  The gold futures fell 6 bucks today as the US dollar again didn't do much of anything.  The XAU fell 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell at least 1/2 or more on light volume.  These issues have the same I'm going lower feel to them as the overall market.  I'm still leaving in my open order for the January ABX calls.  Could be another mistake but I will check it out again tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices tried again to rally today and failed.  That is troublesome.  The smaller stocks have already broken down below their 200 day moving averages and perhaps now the larger caps will follow.  Tomorrow could get interesting.  Gold has held up rather well lately but the gold shares have lagged.  Sometimes when nobody wants something, it's the time to step up to the plate.  The gold shares are oversold technically.  I'm willing to take the chance here but I may be early.  We'll see.  I'll keep an eye on developments overnight and go from there.   

Monday, November 12, 2012

A semi-holiday today as the banks and bond markets were closed for Veterans Day.  The Dow drifted all session and finished the day basically unchanged on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Still trying to hold or bounce from the important 1380 level on the S&P 500.  Where we move from here will be worth watching.  Still oversold on the short term technicals for the stock indexes.  GE fell 1/8 on the same very light volume.  No trades there for now.  The gold futures were flat on the day and off a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar didn't do much today either.  The XAU however fell 2 3/8 as it is now under performing the precious metal itself.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on very light volume.  I'm leaving in my open order for the January ABX calls.  Not sure if it will get filled at the price that I'm willing to pay.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week and all the players should return tomorrow.  The Dow transports rallied today and perhaps the overall market will follow tomorrow.  Summation index still heading lower though.  It's anybodies guess as to what happens this week.  We'll watch the overseas markets tonight and go from there. 

Friday, November 09, 2012

The market tried to rally today but when it was all said and done the Dow only managed a gain of 4 points.  Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator is trying to hold in at the -150 level, which has been the stopping point in momentum since June.  The stock indices remain oversold on a daily technical basis.  Expiration week is coming up.  It remains to be seen if the usual positive bias will be in effect this time around.  I'd simply be guessing if told you where we are heading next for the S&P 500.  We are right at the 200 day moving average and this is where the battle will be to stop the decline.  It has held so far.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  No trade there for now.  Gold gained $5 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU was off 2 1/2 though.  ABX down 3/8, GG and NEM dropped 3/4.  Volume was light.  I've left in the open order for the ABX January calls for now.  I may switch to IAG.  The technicals for gold itself are short term overbought now, while the gold share technicals are mid-range.  I'll have to ponder this idea once again over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the US election out of the way but the market not only didn't care, it sold off.  Probably because the outcome only guarantees more of the same political infighting that has gone on since the beginning of politics.  The stock indexes are technically oversold and staying there.  That is not bullish.  Perhaps expiration week can start to turn things around but I don't know.  Gold caught a bid this week and that has stopped the month long decline.  Whether or not this is the beginning of another attempt to the $1800 level remains to be seen.  The gold shares lagged this week.  With only 5 days to go in the November option cycle, I won't be trying any trades on that short of a duration.  The December options have an extra weeks time on them but one of the week there is a holiday week.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and make some sense of things.  Friday afternoon is here and it is time to start to enjoy the weekend. 

Thursday, November 08, 2012

What a time to take a couple of days off, which I rarely do but was already committed to.  A brief recap of the 2 days I missed posting the blog.  Tuesday saw a 133 point rally in the Dow as the election uncertainty was going to finally pass.  The gold futures rallied as well, over $30.  The XAU didn't rally as much though.  Wednesday saw a nasty sell-off for stocks as the Dow fell 312 points.  Gold was flat on the day and the XAU rallied slightly again.  Which brings us to today.  The Dow followed through to the downside and that isn't good sign if you're bullish.  The Dow dropped another 121 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The S&P 500 is at its 200 day moving average.  I would expect some attempt to stabilize here but who knows?  We are in a liquidation mode for whatever reason.  We will have to see how long this lasts.  The McClellan oscillator still has more room to the downside before we get to the snap back stage.  So it is time to keep an eye on things for sure.  GE dropped 1/4 on average volume and broke to new recent lows.  The 50 week moving average comes in at just below $20.  Not trades here for now.  The gold futures had another good day in the flight to safety.  They rose $12 as the dollar had slight gains as well.  The XAU only moved up 1 1/4.  ABX and GG up 1/4, while NEM was flat.  Volume was average here.  Before I took off for a couple of days, I did place an order for some ABX January calls.  It wasn't filled.  The major gold shares are not moving as much here as I would expect.  Perhaps the recent earnings reports have kept traders away.  I may move over to a second tier gold producer such as IAG.  At least the percentage moves here lately have been better.  I have left the ABX January call trade open though, to see if it will get filled.  I'm still considering if this is a viable idea considering we've had a decent move in gold for the past few days and the major gold shares haven't participated.  Mentally I'm pretty tired, haven't slept well for a couple of days.  The stock indices have the look and feel as if they are simply breaking down here.  I'm not sure how long this will last but I don't think that it is done just yet.  7 days to go in the November option cycle so perhaps we will drop into that.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold has moved up this week but the gold shares haven't followed as much as they should.  No hurry to trade there either I suppose.  We'll keep and eye on how the foreign markets react to todays drop and go from there.

Monday, November 05, 2012

A bit higher on Monday as the Dow gained 19 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  It's a waiting game on the election at this point.  Perhaps we'll see a rally when that unknown has passed.  The technicals are still more oversold than overbought on the stock indices.  At this juncture, things could go either way.  If I had any real conviction, I'd try something here but I don't.  GE was up 1/8 after opening lower.  Volume was light.  The technicals appear to be turning up here.  Gold bounced back a little, up $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU fell over a point though.  No love for the gold shares.  ABX off 1/4, GG up 1/4 and NEM shed 1/3.  Volume looks to be about average for the gold shares.  I'm still considering the gold share calls for January.  It may take a while to build a base though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is simply a time of wait and see for the stock indexes here.  Wednesday will be an interesting session.  Regardless of who wins the election the markets will move on.  Nobody wants the gold shares here.  That should tell us something.  It's usually the time to buy unless we simply continue the recent free fall.  Obviously I have no conviction one way or the other there.  That said, I'll be trying the gold share calls again at some point.  I'll be away from my desk for the next few days due to a previous commitment.  I may or may not be able to post remotely.  Tomorrow should be slow again and then we will key off of the markets reaction to the election results.  I'm expecting Obama to win and we'll see how much of that is factored into prices already.  However I could be wrong and have been a lot this year.

Sunday, November 04, 2012

Friday was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 139 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index started heading lower again.  We will really need to see things turn around rather quickly or we could be heading towards new recent lows for the stock indices.  The technicals remain oversold and that will be a problem if we don't start a rally here.  We got a bounce but there was no follow through.  The employment report was a bit better than expected but it didn't mean much to stocks.  Next week should be very interesting.  GE was flat after opening higher and the volume was a little better than average.  No trades here for now.  Gold got pounded lower on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost $40, which was the biggest one day loss in quite a while.  The XAU fell 8 1/8.  ABX off 1 1/3, GG dropped 2 1/4 and NEM led the way down by 4 1/2.  Volume was heavy in the gold shares as traders headed for the exits in a hurry.  I think the prevailing wisdom here is that the US dollar is starting a longer term rally here and the commodity complex is going to head lower.  That's my guess as to what occurred on Friday.  Whether or not that is true only time will tell.  Of course I'm still reeling from the ABX November call trade but I'm  willing to take a look at the gold share calls again for January.  However the drop at the moment is so steep that I will have to reassess this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes need to hold on here or it could get ugly.  Still oversold and we should have had more upside than the bounce on Thursday.  Perhaps we will get some rally this week but the market will go where it wants.  Gold is in a down trend.  There is a bit of support where we are right now but much more at $1625.  The charts of the gold shares look ugly to the downside.  I'll be away from my desk starting on Tuesday.  I may or may not be able to provide the daily market updates until Thursday or Friday.  I might be able to post remotely but we'll see.  Enjoy the rest of the weekend.  

Thursday, November 01, 2012

The expected upside showed up today as the Dow gained 136 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Perhaps the market knows something about tomorrows employment report.  Or not.  Technically we needed a bounce and we got it.  We'll have to wait and see if it is the start of something more.  GE gained 1/4 on average volume.  Perhaps we are trying to put in a base here as well.  No trades there for now.  Gold lost a few bucks as the dollar didn't do much again today.  The XAU fell 1 1/8.  ABX was the story of the day as it got clobbered on a poor earnings report.  ABX down 3 7/8, GG up 1/8 and NEM fell 1 1/3.  Volume was extremely heavy on ABX, about average for the others.  My ABX November calls were a complete 100% loss.  ABX gapped down at the open and blew past my stop loss order.  I never seem to do well with the short term trades and this was no exception.  I wasn't expecting anything like this but the market as usual will go where it wants.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to see if we get any follow through to todays rally in the overall market tomorrow.  If so, we could be at the beginning of some type of rally here.  If not, it will be more of the same sideways activity pre-election.  So we'll see.  Gold seems to be in the same stand by mode.  I'm not sure if I'll try the gold share calls again.  I'll have to try and regroup from todays debacle.  I might go with the GDX for the next gold trade as the single stock risk would be less.  Trading a basket of the gold shares vs. a single company in theory has less risk.  We'll see.  Perhaps I simply expected ABX to have the same upside movement that GG had on its earnings release.  We'll get the employment number tomorrow and go from there.