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Tuesday, November 13, 2012

We opened lower, climbed out of that hole to be positive most of the day, only to roll back down in the final hour.  The Dow fell 59 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Oversold, staying there and that is not a good sign.  The summation index continues lower.  We closed below the important line in the sand level of 1380 on the S&P 500.  So I would have to say that we need to watch out here for a big decline.  Perhaps things can turn around tomorrow but it doesn't feel like it.  Caution would be the word that best describes the current stock market environment.  GE lost almost 1/4 on average volume.  Here too we are breaking to new lows for the move.  It looks like we are heading to the 200 day moving average at around $20.  The gold futures fell 6 bucks today as the US dollar again didn't do much of anything.  The XAU fell 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell at least 1/2 or more on light volume.  These issues have the same I'm going lower feel to them as the overall market.  I'm still leaving in my open order for the January ABX calls.  Could be another mistake but I will check it out again tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices tried again to rally today and failed.  That is troublesome.  The smaller stocks have already broken down below their 200 day moving averages and perhaps now the larger caps will follow.  Tomorrow could get interesting.  Gold has held up rather well lately but the gold shares have lagged.  Sometimes when nobody wants something, it's the time to step up to the plate.  The gold shares are oversold technically.  I'm willing to take the chance here but I may be early.  We'll see.  I'll keep an eye on developments overnight and go from there.   

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