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Monday, November 19, 2012

Today we saw the bounce that we were waiting for as the Dow climbed 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 8 to 1 positive.  The reasons could be anywhere from the "fiscal cliff" positive thoughts or the European mess suddenly sorting itself out.  Doesn't matter.  We were technically in an area that should of seen a bounce earlier than this, so it was bound to show up sooner or later.  Where we go from here is what matters.  Today had everything but the volume but it is a holiday week.  We'll see if we can build on this for the rest of this week.  GE had a gap to the upside and gained 1/2 on the day.  Volume was average.  The 200 day moving average held for GE, unlike the major averages.  Does that mean anything?  Perhaps.  Maybe GE will show better relative strength moving forward.  Gold had a decent day as the US dollar was weaker for a change.  The precious metal futures rose almost $20.  The XAU gained 4 7/8.  ABX up 1/2, GG added 1 1/8 and NEM higher by 2/3.  Volume was light.  I would have liked to see ABX move better with such a good day in the markets but was not to be.  My ABX January calls are still in the red.  I'm willing to give this trade some time to work as we are still oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a rally so we will have to see how the rest of the shortened week plays out.  The volume was light and we don't trust light volume rallies.  So we'll see.  Gold continues to outperform the gold shares and that isn't a positive going forward.  I will say though that if ABX can hold up here in the next couple of weeks, there is a chance that this trade will work itself out.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what goes on overnight and take it from there. 

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