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Thursday, November 15, 2012

The general malaise continues as the Dow fell 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Very oversold on all levels here and I would expect a snap back tomorrow or Monday.  I doubt it will be anything sustainable but at least we'll take a rest from the drop.  If that doesn't happen we may actually simply collapse but I do not think that will occur.  However we have to be aware that it could.  The market as always goes where it wants.  The McClellan oscillator is deeply oversold and it doesn't stay that way for long.  So we'll look for some type of rally attempt and go from there.  GE was up a nickel as it tries to hold on at it's 200 day moving average.  Volume was good.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell today as the futures lost $16.  The US dollar continues to meander, with not much price action.  The XAU dropped another 4 1/8.  ABX fell 2/3, GG off 1 1/3 and NEM lost 1/4.  Volume was good on the gold shares.  I bought some more of the January ABX calls and averaged down my original cost.  This is something that usually doesn't work.  However I am a believer that this trade will work out.  I could be wrong and have been wrong a lot this year.  The charts for ABX look ugly to the downside.  It very well could be the falling knife syndrome.  But when nobody else wants something it is sometimes the right time to buy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting times in the marketplace right now.  The stock indices have broken down.  There can be no denying that.  We are due for a bounce and it should come soon.  I would not be a buyer of stocks for the longer term until sometime next year.  Gold has held up rather well so far during this decline but the gold shares have not.  However there is a lot of tension in the Middle East at the moment and gold hasn't rallied.  That could be a problem for the gold bulls going forward.  We'll see.  We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.   

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