A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower. The Dow rose 140 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending lower. The overall market was down, with the NASDAQ losing 200 points. The S&P 500 had a slight loss. The short term indicators there are mostly oversold. Stocks are having a problem gaining any traction to the upside lately. Inflation data due out on Wednesday should be benign. I'm still interested in the SPY September puts but will wait for some kind of move higher in the near term before trying them. Gold was up another $28 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher an interest rates a bit lower. The XAU was up 4 1/8, while GDX added around 3/4. Volume was average. Gold and the gold shares have had quite a run in past few weeks. The short term indicators for GDX remain extremely overbought. This condition cannot go on forever. However we are not about to fight it. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today which fits an overall down day for stocks. The short term indicators here are back to pointing up. Not sure where the VIX heads next. Now into the September option cycle and premiums are high. It's the last full week of trading in August and many players are getting in their final summer vacations. We are in no hurry to put on a position right away. We'll see if our patience pays off. Europe and Asia were generally lower to start the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Buyers returned on expiration Friday as the Dow climbed 517 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. The Dow led the way higher and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Still waiting on the NASDAQ to confirm the most recent highs in the Dow and S&P 500. The short term indicators for the S&P are still moving lower. Not sure how long that short term buy signal for the S&P we just got will last. Prefer to try the SPY puts once we get back to an overbought technical condition. Gold keeps rolling along as the futures gained $106. The US dollar finished little changed again and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU rose 13 1/8 and GDX added 3. Volume continues to be good here. GDX is extremely short term overbought but in rallies like this one it doesn't matter. Money is coming into the gold shares and declines are viewed as buying opportunities. We will wait for some kind of pullback before attempting to buy the GDX calls. If one doesn't occur we will continue to look for an entry point for the SPY puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and the short term indicators here have now turned lower. I'm not sure where the VIX is heading next. Just over a week left in August as summer is winding down. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Rolling into the September option cycle but there's no hurry to do anything at the moment. We'll get some inflation data in the middle of next week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the downside today as stocks cannot seem to gain any traction. The Dow fell 703 on lighter volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to trending lower. The Dow led things down but both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had decent losses. The short term indicators on the S&P are now heading lower and are at the mid-range level. There is strong near term support at the break out level of 7600. The longer term up trend line comes in at 7550. If for some reason those levels don't hold then we will be in for more downside. Getting close to a short term buy signal on one of our indicators for the S&P. Gold is the place to be as the futures added another $38. The US dollar finished about flat and interest rates rose. The XAU gained almost ten points, while GDX was up 2 1/2. Volume is still good to the upside here. GDX remains overbought on all the short term indicators. The medium term indicators still have room to go. Looking to try the GDX September calls if we see any pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and the daily chart looks like it wants to go higher. The short term indicators here are moving higher and are no longer oversold. It looks like volatility is going to make a comeback. I also still like the idea for the SPY September puts. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Minor gains were posted today as the Dow rose 119 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. We had a small gap up at the open, rallied for a couple of hours but then sold off for the rest of the session. None of the major averages could keep the lions share of their intra-day gains. For some reason stocks cannot find any traction here during expiration week. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to turn sideways. Gold jumped as the US treasury secretary indicated that they would be buying more bonds to keep rates down. The precious metal futures were up $146 to over $4500. The US dollar got clobbered and longer term interest rates dropped. The XAU climbed over 32 points and GDX was up around 8 1/2. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up in overbought territory. The pullback to the broken down trend line that we were looking for never happened. The gold shares simply took off to the upside and never looked back. GDX is up over 30% in 2 1/2 weeks. The gold shares have far outperformed gold itself. Not sure how much longer that can go on but I'm still a fan of the GDX September calls if we see some selling in the gold shares. However the ideal timing for this trade was missed by us once again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an upside market. The short term indicators remain in oversold territory. I'm not sure where this indicator heads next. Still remaining on the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY and GDX options. Asia and Europe were mostly lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The selling continues today as the Dow dropped 116 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. We had a big gap down at the open and then traded sideways for the rest of the day. The overall market fared much worse than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way down. We are still waiting for the NASDAQ to confirm the new highs made by the Dow and S&P 500. If that doesn't occur we will be heading lower. The short term indicators on the S&P have turned lower but remain overbought. I am considering the September SPY puts but the premiums are pretty high. The mood of the market seems to be changing here. Gold was down $74 on the futures. The US dollar was slghtly higher and interest rates slightly lower. The XAU fell 10 7/8 and GDX dropped 2 7/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are still overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which is what to expect with a down market. The short term indicators here are moving higher but most remain in the oversold range. The VIX is still well below the 20 level. Three days left in the August option cycle and we'll remain on the sidelines for now. Considering the SPY September puts and the GDX September calls at the moment. Asia was mixed and Europe generally down overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Starting expiration week on a down note as the Dow fell 272 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. Most stock markets opened higher and closed lower. We got another signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. This signal hasn't worked lately but we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. The Dow and S&P 500 led things lower today. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down but remain overbought. No SPY option trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $39 on the futures. The US dollar finished a bit lower and interest rates just a bit higher. The XAU added 7 points and GDX was up 1 7/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. I am looking at the September GDX calls but am still waiting for some kind of pullback before purchase. Markets rarely cooperate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that coincides with a down market. Still short term oversold on the measures here. I'm not sure where the VIX is headed next. Not a lot of economic data due out this week as we continue to travel through summer. Haven't heard much about the US/Iran conflict lately but that could change on a moments notice. Waiting for the next decent technical signal but at this rate it could be a while. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye out for any overnight developments.

Weakness for much of the session as the Dow fell 107 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending higher. Retail sales came in less than expected but after a brief pop the market was lower and sideways for the rest of the session. It had the feel of a Friday in the summer with not much action and players away from their desks. We could be getting this for the next couple of weeks in August but we'll see. Small losses for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The short term indicators continue to trend sideways in overbought territory for the S&P. Option expiration week coming up and we'll see if it has the usual positive bias. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU gained 6 3/4, while GDX was up around 1 2/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up in the overbought range. I canceled my open order for the GDX August calls as we are running out of time in the August option cycle. Might try the September calls there but would have to see some sort of pullback first. Will try not to force the issue here because if summer doldrums trading mode takes effect it makes the options game that much tougher. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was lower again today and that does not fit with a down market. Extremely oversold on some of the short term indicators here. Not sure what's next for the VIX but it has been hanging around in oversold territory for two weeks. That won't last forever. Five days left in the Auguust option cycle so the risk is high there. Not sure that I'll be taking on any trades next week but you never know. The bulls remain in charge for now. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to see what I can come up with. Asia and Europe finished mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Moving up on lighter than expected inflation data but the Dow only gained 69 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. The NASDAQ led the way, up over 200 points. The S&P 500 had a decent gain of fifty for a new all time closing high. It appears to be breaking to the upside from the recent sideways activity. The short term indicators here remain overbought and staying there. No overhead resistance and the bulls are in charge. Gold dropped $63 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were lower. The XAU was off 10 points and GDX lost 3. Volume was pretty good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have moved lower but remain overbought. Perhaps this is the beginning of the awaited pullback towards the broken down trend line that we've been looking for. I still have my open order out there for the GDX August calls but with only six days left in the August option cycle I might have to move out to September. We'll see how things go tomorrow and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a touch and that doesn't fit with an overall positive day for stocks. Oversold and staying there is the story here. We are still waiting for the NASDAQ to confirm the new all time highs for the Dow and S&P. Also waiting on the TRAN to confirm the move higher for the Dow. Asia was mixed and Europe lower again. Retail sales out on Friday and we'll finish the trading week tomorrow.

Most stock markets moved higher but the Dow lost 21 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving sideways. Inflation data came in at the consensus, which wasn't what I expected. Thankfully we did not own the SPY August puts as there was a big gap up at the open followed by a sideways drift for the rest of the session. We did receive a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two trading sessions. We'll see if we get that move tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way higher again today and that remains a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still overbought and staying that way. Now joined by the medium term gauges as well. Not sure how much longer this can last but can be longer than expected during rally phases. Gold up another thirty bucks today. The US dollar was higher today, while interest rates finished relatively flat. The XAU was up 3 1/8 and GDX added 7/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought like the overall market. I did place an order overnight for the GDX August calls but it will take some selling to get filled. I'm leaving the order out there but may have to switch to the September option cycle going forward. We have yet to see GDX make a pullback to the down trend line that it broke. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an overall up market. Still oversold and staying that way. The bulls are in charge. More inflation data on the docket for tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe a bit lower overnight. I'll keep watch on this evenings developments.

Just another slow day in the summer as the Dow fell 184 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues sideways. Modest losses for most of the major averages with the NASDAQ leading the way. Inflation data tomorrow should get things going one way or the other. The S&P 500 is tracking sideways for now but that should end tomorrow. The short term indicators here are still running in place on the the overbought side of the ledger. I canceled my open order for the SPY August puts as it wasn't going to get filled. I did not want to pay up for the puts even though that is the trade that I feel makes the most sense here. We'll see. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were just a touch lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are still overbought. If the markets do drop tomorrow on higher inflation the gold shares will probably go with them. I still like the idea of the GDX August calls on a near term pullback. I may even place an order for them overnight. We are waiting for some kind of move lower back towards the down trend line that was recently broken in GDX. Hasn't happened yet. Perhaps will have to wait and try the September GDX calls here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. The short term indicators here simply remain oversold. We'll see how the markets react to tomorrows data and go from there. The US/Iran conflict has been quiet lately but that won't last. Europe was mixed and Asia lower with the exception of Japan. All eyes on tomorrows inflation report.

Another slow summer Monday as the Dow dipped 61 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to track sideways again. The NASDAQ led the way lower but the losses were small for all the major indices. It appears to be a waiting game on the inflation data due Wednesday and Thursday. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are traveling sideways in overbought territory. I did place an open order for the SPY August puts but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there. It will take some gain in the S&P to be filled and that may not happen before Wednesday. It would be a short term trade and out before the end of the week if it gets filled. Gold continues to shine with the futures up another $48. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/3 and GDX added over 1/2. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought on the daily indicators. Any pullback here would perhaps give us a shot at the GDX August calls as buyers have returned to this space in force. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was higher today which fits a down market. The short term indicators remain oversold. The VIX is well below the 20 level as the bulls are in charge. I will have to decide tomorrow if I want to pay up for the SPY August puts. Probably not is my feeling at the moment but we'll have to wait and see. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to begin the trading week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Buyers returned today as the Dow rose 151 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to trending higher. The jobs report was weaker than expected and we had a gap higher at the open. There was some back and forth during the day but stocks remained positive throughout. The NASDAQ was the leader and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and closed at a new all time high. The short term indicators here are now moving sideways in overbought territory. The sell signal we received turned out to be short lived but that was not unexpected. There is no overhead resistance for the S&P. Gold continued its run higher as the futures were up $103. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 23 1/2, while GDX climbed almost 6. Volume was heavy again to the upside. GDX is short term overbought and will probably stay that way. Gold and the gold shares had a tremendous week to the plus side with huge gains. GDX was up 20% in just a week, breaking through down trend lines that were in charge. I still like the idea of the GDX calls on a pullback but the lions share of the gains have most likely already been made. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as taking the big loss in the gold share calls last month probably helped deter me from trying them again last week. There was an opportunity and I let it slip through my hands. It has happened before and it will probably happen again. The market doesn't care. The VIX was lower to a new six month low. It remains very oversold on the short term indicators but can stay that way during rallies. I will be going over all the charts this weekend but I do have a trade in mind already for next week if the market cooperates. Inflation data will be out on Wednesday and Thursday of next week. If the market continues higher early in the week and the NASDAQ does not break out to a new all time high I'll be looking at the SPY August puts. It would be a short term trade to be entered prior to the inflation numbers. Market rarely cooperate though. Plus we remain at the mercy of the next headline out of the US/Iran conflict. Asia was once again mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Hanging around on a summer Thursday but the Dow got clocked to the tune of 464 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. Waiting on tomorrows jobs report. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted minor losses. The short term indicators for the S&P are starting to trend a bit lower in overbought territory. My guess is that the past two days were spent digesting the big previous gains. We'll know more after tomorrows price action. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. The short term indicators on GDX are now overbought. I'll consider the August calls here for GDX if we get some near term decline towards the recently broken down trend line on the daily and weekly charts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a negative market. The short term indicators for the VIX remain oversold. I'm still not sure what comes next for the VIX. At this point it appears that we'll let tomorrow come and go. Then we will focus on next week and a possible trade there. Still at the mercy of the next US/Iran conflict headline. Asia and Europe were mixed overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the employment report tomorrow.

Back to a mixed picture as the Dow rose 263 points to close at another record high on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trending higher. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted losses on the session with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The Dow along with the S&P 500 and other major indices have recently posted record highs. The NASDAQ however has not. This is a fly in the ointment for the recent rise. I expect that it will work itself out and the NASDAQ will post new all time highs soon. But if it doesn't we'll need to watch out. The S&P had a one day downside reversal today as it opened higher and closed lower. The short term indicators here are beginning to stall in overbought territory. One of the indicators that we use is now flashing a sell signal for the S&P. There is a chance that the S&P will return to the breakout point of 7600 but that would be viewed as an opportunity to try the SPY August calls. Gold soared as the futures climbed $154. The US dollar was lower and interest rates slightly lower. The XAU gained 22 1/4 and GDX jumped 5 3/4. Volume was heavy to the upside as GDX got above the down trend line on its daily chart that has been in effect since the beginning of the year. The short term indicators here are pointing up but are short term overbought now. Any decline in the gold shares can now be bought. If we see a snap back to the line that was broken, the GDX August calls will be in order. We believe that todays high volume break out above the down trend line for GDX is for real and will now chase this move if given the chance. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a wide range but finished the day lower. The short term indicators for the VIX are moving sideways in oversold territory. During rallies the VIX can remain oversold for some time. We'll see how it goes this time around. Waiting on a so called peace agreement for the US/Iran conflict and Fridays employment report. Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Powering higher to record levels as the Dow gained 907 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that's a plus. New all time closing highs for the Dow and S&P 500. The S&P has broken out to the upside from the sideways congestion zone. The short term indicators here continue higher and are almost overbought. There is no overhead resistance now for the S&P so we will have to see how far it can go from here. Gold was up $43 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates were lower. The XAU was up 8 3/8, while GDX added 1 7/8. Volume was just shy of average. The short term indicators for GDX are still trending higher. GDX has now broken above the down trend line on its weekly candlestick chart. However the week isn't over yet. The daily chart still has the down trend line in effect. A close above 79 would be a positive sign there. Obviously we've missed out on the calls for GDX but we'll see where things go from here. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today and that does not fit with a huge move higher in stocks. The short term indicators here are starting to move sideways in oversold territory. I'm not sure what comes next for the VIX. The conflict in Iran along with earnings continue to be on the forefront of trading for now. There is still plenty of time in the August option cycle. Europe was up and Asia mixed overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Big gains for stocks today as the Dow climbed 693 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 posiitve. The summation index is trying to turn higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 was up 110 points. The short term indicators for the S&P are moving up and some have room to go before hitting overbought territory. This index is knocking on the door of new all time highs and at this rate will hit them tomorrow. I have to admit that my prognosis for the SPY August puts here is wrong. Todays market breadth was much better and it appears that the S&P will break out to the upside of the recent 3 month congestion zone on the daily chart. That doesn't mean that we won't try the puts at a later date but it does mean that we've missed this move higher. Gold was flat on the futures. The US dollar finished flat as well and interest rates dipped. The XAU was up about 7 1/2, while GDX gained around 2 points. Volume was pretty light here as the interest in the gold shares remains tepid. The short term indicators for GDX are back to moving up with room to go. GDX is once again close to breaking the down trend line of its weekly chart. That would be a major positive if it happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today. Some of the short term indicators here are starting to trend sideways. Not all are oversold yet. I'm undecided about what's next for the VIX. More earnings this week and the jobs report on Friday. However the market remains hostage to the next headline on the US/Iran conflict. More bombing would probably send things lower and an agreement of a peace deal would send things higher. The reality of the situation is that we don't know what will happen next. We will stick with the technicals and can say that if the S&P breaks out here it would be bullish for stocks. Asia was mixed and Europe higher with the exception of the FTSE to begin the trading week. I'll keep watch on the overnight developments.