Friday, October 31, 2014
Another incredible run to the upside today as the Dow gained 194 points on heavy volume to finish the month of October. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. We are once again hitting all time highs in some of the major stock indices. I certainly cannot explain it but as I say here a lot, the market goes where it wants. No real declines to get long but perhaps that will change in November. Technically overbought and staying there. No OEX trades in mind at the moment. I guess the next big events will be the election on Tuesday and the employment report a week from today. GE was only up 1/8 today on average volume. GE did not participate as much in todays rally. I still like the March calls here eventually. Gold got clocked again today as the futures fell over $25. The US dollar had a very strong session on the heels of a weak Japanese yen. The XAU dropped 3 1/8. ABX lost 3/8, GG was down 1 1/2 but came all the way back to be slightly positive. NEM got smashed on the earnings report and lost 1 1/2. Volume was extremely heavy for the gold shares today. I keep thinking that we have seen the blow out downside washout for these stocks, yet they keep going lower. I did put in another order for the January ABX calls but it wasn't filled. The action in GG today was interesting for at least in this stock, traders are saying enough is enough. I'll probably try ABX again on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Small losses in the last two OEX trades but I can live with that. At least I executed the trades as planned and did not deviate form my trading rules. The stock indexes have come roaring back from the lows of mid October. I do not see any barriers in the way of higher prices from here for a while. Wear above the old resistance in both the Dow and the S&P 500. The good volume confirms the breakout. I'll be taking a closer look at the charts over the weekend. Gold has broken its support at the $1180 level and I don't know how low it can go. Perhaps all the way back to $1000? I'd be guessing if I said I knew. The gold shares are so blown out here that I am pretty sure I will be attempting the calls next week for the January option cycle. Plenty of charts to look at there as well. It was a crazy month of October in the markets. I don't expect a repeat of that anytime soon but you never know. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, October 30, 2014
A huge upside move for the Dow today as it gained 221 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. The Dow outperformed the overall market. The summation index continues higher. I cannot explain this huge rebound but you cannot argue with price. I got stopped out on November OEX puts but not without drama. The ticket should have been filled earlier in the session but the price action was strange. I may need to switch to the SPY options because they have much more liquidity. Anyway the loss was 30% and my entry here was poor. The overbought condition was not relieved with a decent decline and that wasn't the best trading idea for me. I prefer the OEX because it moves slower but if the options trade like they did today I may have to seek more liquid options. GE was basically unchanged but did move around a lot today as volatility returned. I still like the March call idea here. Gold continued lower today as the futures fell over $25 with the losses from yesterdays aftermarket thrown in. The XAU got clobbered and shed almost 5 points. We are reaching levels not seen since the financial meltdown in 2008. The dollar was a bit higher today as well. The earnings came out for ABX and GG but nobody liked them. ABX and NEM lost 1/2, while GG dropped almost 3. Volume exploded to the downside. This should be the final washout, with the volume expanding so much. I did place an order for the January ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I will probably try this trade again tomorrow. This is really an incredible decline for the gold shares. Perhaps getting long is the wrong idea again but there will not be a lot of money involved. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Another losing trade but there wasn't much capital involved and the stop loss came through eventually. It looks like the V bottom is in place for the major stock indices. The trend is up and declines, if they occur, can be bought. Three weeks left in the November option cycle. The market remains overbought but the rise continues. End of the month tomorrow. Gold lower. Silver lower. The gold shares decimated. The old saying says the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets. It's a tidal wave of blood for gold right now. I'll probably try the January gold share calls tomorrow. However this trade will not have a lot of money involved. We'll see. We'll see what happens overseas tonight and go from there.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
We bounced around today and the Dow finished with a loss of 31 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. We did sell off after the Fed but came back for the rest of the session. The summation index continues higher. My November OEX puts are in the red. The stock indices are still overbought but it hasn't led to any type of sustained decline. The trend is up and I need to exit this trade. The entry point was early and I doubt it will get back to the buy price. We'll get the GDP report tomorrow, perhaps that will provide some movement. GE was off about 1/4 on average volume. Hanging around the 50 and 200 day moving averages here. Gold fell about $20 on the futures with the aftermarket loss thrown in. The US dollar had a strong session once again. The fundamentals for gold remain bearish. The XAU fell almost three points. ABX off 2/3, while GG and NEM fell around a buck. Volume was above average to the downside. When you think that the gold shares can't go any lower, they still do. Earnings due in the next couple of trading sessions but I doubt now that it will matter. I guess I'm lucky that I didn't try the gold share calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A small spike in the VIX today but it didn't end up amounting to anything by the close. You just get the feeling that the market will now churn its way higher from here. No retest of the recent lows from what I can tell. End of the month coming up on Friday. I'll have to consider selling my OEX November puts before they get stopped out. The strategy was to wait until the Fed today. That passed without ant meaningful decline. Unless we sell off tomorrow, there won't be much reason to hold on. The gold shares are getting down to levels that I did not believe were possible. My thought is that they could even go lower. I'll eventually try the January calls though. When is the question. We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and go from there.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Powering higher as the Dow gained 187 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The stock indices continue their straight line move up from the lows. I got stopped out on the November OEX put trade for a 45% loss. I then preceded to move to a closer to the money strike price for the November OEX puts and purchased them. This was a mistake as the market simply continued to move higher. I have the stop loss order in and it will probably be hit tomorrow at this pace. I think that I have fallen in love with the idea to be short for the Fed announcement and that isn't the way you need to trade to be successful. We are short term overbought but it hasn't led to any type of decline. The trend is up and calls are what you should be buying. GE was up 1/3 on better volume. Perhaps the time to get the March GE calls has passed. Gold was flat on the session and the US dollar was off a bit. The XAU gained 1 1/4 as the gold shares finally rose when gold did not. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. Perhaps the gold share calls before the earnings was the better trade here. But it doesn't matter now. I'm in what I'm in. Mentally I'm not happy with todays trade. I really should have just moved to the sidelines and waited for a better technical set up. The trade won't lose a lot of money but the inability to do what is necessary is the problem. I think also I was anxious just to have another trade going and that is a recipe for disaster. The battle usually lies within oneself and I lost that battle today. The TRAN hit an all time high today so overall higher prices are coming. The small stocks are acting great here as well. There is nothing near term to derail this rally. Perhaps the Fed won't mean anything at all tomorrow. Waiting on the gold share earnings but the trend is down and the fundamentals are lousy. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Monday, October 27, 2014
A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 12 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative though and the S&P 500 showed a loss. The small stock indices were mixed. The summation index continues higher. Waiting on the Fed seems to be the general theme but there isn't anything new expected there. My November OEX puts are losers. I should get rid of them this week, either getting stopped out or dumping them. I'm going to hold them until the Fed on Wednesday. Short term overbought on the stock indexes but we are not seeing any pullback. GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light. Holding off on the March calls for now. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was off a bit today but gold did not move up. The XAU fell 1/3. The gold shares are low and they just keep going lower. ABX, GG and NEM were all down 1/4 or more on light volume. Earnings due for these three starting after the close on Wednesday. As much as I'd like to try the near term calls for the gold shares here, I am going to try and fight myself to just not do anything. However these stocks are due for at least a bounce at some point. Oversold and staying there but a case can be made on the daily charts for a positive RSI divergence. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We had a nice bounce in the stock indexes and the Fibanocci retracement levels have all been taken out. The trend is up. There has been no pullback and no retest of the lows. It appears that a V bottom is in place. The weekly stock index candlestick charts are showing a bullish pattern. Declines, if they occur, can be purchased in my opinion. Gold continues to go nowhere and the gold shares are decimated. When the carnage ends is the question that hasn't been answered for months. It doesn't pay to try and guess in this game. The technical indicators stopped working here a while ago. I'll try my best to stay on the sidelines. The fundamentals remain bearish for gold. We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and see what happens on Tuesday.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Another good day for the Dow as it gained 127 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Declines can be bought in my opinion. My November OEX calls are in the red. They will be sold next week as this trade will probably get stopped out. I'll probably try and wait for the Fed on Wednesday but the bottom is in and higher prices are coming for the future. Short term overbought and staying there for the stock indices. It is surprising how the tone has changed in such a short time. But like we already know, the market will go where it wants. GE was up about 20 cents but the volume was very light. I still like the March calls here if we ever see some pullback. Gold was up a couple bucks on the session as the US dollar was a bit weaker. The XAU was off 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had minor moves one way or the other on lighter volume. Earnings out next week for the big three and I'm tempted to try the November calls here now. However it is probably more prudent to let the announcements pass and forget about the gold shares for now. I'll think about it over the weekend. There are potentially positive daily RSI divergences in these stocks though. Mentally I'm doing OK. Holding a losing trade at the moment but because the volatility has picked up so much, the prices for the index options stay inflated. The extra week in the November cycle has helped keep the premiums up as well. I'll need to have some early week weakness for this trade to break even right now. I do not see any huge declines coming up for the stock indices. The trend has changed, we will not be retesting the recent lows and longs are suggested. Still no love for gold and the gold shares. The small rally we had in gold is now fading. The fundamentals for gold are still negative. I can maybe make a case for trying the gold share calls ahead of the earnings next week but there are probably better trades out there. I'll consider what to do over the weekend. I'll also try and not talk myself into doing something stupid. But you never know. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Zooming back to the upside as the Dow gained 216 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Good earnings propelled the market today. We broke the recent down trend line in the S&P 500 today. It really looks like a V bottom has been put into place. My November OEX puts as now losers. The probability of this trade returning to profitability is not good. Although still short term overbought, todays action in the stock indices negates yesterdays decline. We'll have to see how the week closes out tomorrow. GE was up 1/4 on average volume but came well off of the highs for the session. Trying to get through the 50 and 200 day moving averages here. Gold was off $16 on the futures. The US dollar had a slight gain today. The XAU was up 1/3. ABX and GG were little changed, while NEM shed over 1/2. Volume was slightly above average here. Earnings due soon for the gold shares and I don't see anything positive coming from that. But who knows? They are overdue for some type of rally. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It's been quite a rally off of the lows from last week. It doesn't look or feel like a retest is in the cards this time around. Longs are favored. I'll probably hold the November OEX puts until the Fed meeting unless we see a sharp decline before that. Doubt it. Gold is stalling at the 50 day moving average. The gold shares remain oversold. I'm still considering the January gold share calls but would like to wait until after the earnings are reported. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 153 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We were positive early in the day and that created a short term overbought condition. I do not think this is the beginning of a downside move like the one we just saw. The summation index is now heading higher. We did get back to the declining tops line on the S&P 500 and have been turned away. I did get some November OEX puts this morning and they are in the black. However this should be a short term trade, probably around a week or so unless something major develops. I do not think that we are going to go all the way back down to test the recent lows. I could be wrong. GE was off 1/4 and the volume was average. I'm looking at the March calls here. Gold was down $6 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was up on the session again. The XAU fell 2 3/4. ABX and NEM were off by about 1/4, while GG dropped 7/8. Volume was average. Perhaps this will be the final washout for the gold shares but that is a guess as usual. The trend remains down for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So the next trade has begun and the entry was good. We got some strength in the morning and I was able to get my order filled. The stop loss order is in place to contain the loss if we rally. I'll be keeping an eye on the technicals but this trade should not last long. I will be looking to switch back to the November OEX calls perhaps next week. The only caveat with this trade is that the option premiums have so much time left that the price movement on them is muted. The gains, if any, will certainly not be like the last trade. The overall market and the small stocks are acting better than the Dow so far. Gold is still unloved. The gold shares are being sold off again. This story never seems to change. Eventually it will. We'll see what kind of reaction to todays decline we see in the foreign markets and take it from there.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
It is hard to believe that a week ago the market looked like it was at the end of the world. Today the Dow soared 215 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. We are right at the down trend line that began a month ago in the S&P 500. I did place an order for some November OEX puts but it wasn't filled. It has been a straight line up for the major stock indices since the lows of last week. The TRAN has already moved above its declining tops line. So is the idea of getting some index puts here the wrong one? Could be. I'll think about it again tonight but perhaps strength tomorrow will be the opportune time for purchase. GE was up 3/8 and the volume was average. Right back to the 50 and 200 day moving averages here. The down trend line here has been broken as well. Gold rose $7 on the futures and the US dollar was higher today as well. Not sure what to make of that. The XAU was only up 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. Once again gold is moving higher without the gold shares and that isn't bullish. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. It has been an incredible turn in price for the stock indexes. The summation index has turned around as well. Longer term it appears that a decent bottom has been put in. Shorter term is a bit tougher. We'll be short term overbought with any positive action tomorrow. I'm leaning towards trying the November OEX puts for a short term trade. I'll consider this idea once again tonight. The foreign markets seemed to have turned here as well. Perhaps waiting for a pullback to get long is the better course of action here. We'll see. Gold and silver have stopped going down but it certainly isn't the kind of price action that gets anybodies attention. Staying on the sidelines there for now. We'll watch what happens today after the bell, check the overseas action tonight and get ready for tomorrow.
Monday, October 20, 2014
The Dow rising only 19 points today does not tell the story as the overall market was much higher. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The small stocks and the S&P 500 were considerably higher. The summation index has turned back to the upside. Do we try and trade a move back to test the lows? What if there is no retest and this is a V bottom? Plenty of questions as usual. I think that if we get to short term overbought on the technical indicators later this week, I'll try the November OEX puts. If not, then I will look to buy the November calls at some point during this option cycle. That is the game plan at the moment. GE was up almost 1/4 on average volume. I still like the March calls here and will look to pick some up on a pullback. Gold rose $5 on the futures today. The US dollar Was lower on the session. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on lighter volume. Gold itself is short term overbought here and the gold shares did not go along for the ride. No trades here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The Dow was held back today by a huge loss in IBM. The other major stock indices are bouncing nicely. Waiting for the next set up here basically. Perhaps by the end of the week. The ideal scenario is to keep moving higher on light volume to set up the OEX puts. Gold has had a nice bounce but the fundamentals there are still negative and could be for a while. No such rally in the gold shares but they did stop moving lower. Patience could be the best idea there. we'll see what happens in the overseas markets tonight and take it from there.
Friday, October 17, 2014
A very positive expiration bias as the Dow zoomed 263 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index back to the upside. But it doesn't necessarily mean that we will be going straight back up. It looks like the next trade could now be the November OEX puts when we get back to the new down trend line. It could be sooner than that but we will have to see what the stock indices do from here. Option premiums for November are high. GE had a gap to the upside and gained 1/2 on good volume after the earnings announcement. We did come off of the highs for the day though. I still like the idea for the March calls here and will be looking to get them on weakness. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day. The XAU was off 2 1/4. ABX and NEM were lower by 1/3 and GG fell almost a buck. Volume was average. The gold shares look poised to go even lower here. Maybe we'll see one last shake out for the gold shares here when the earnings come out. That's a guess as usual. No trades here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. That was quite a week for the stock indexes. The small stocks performed better than the big caps. We will probably test the lows made this week at some point but the decline is done in my opinion. The short term technicals have turned back up. The fear level shot up and we did get a high volume washout on Wednesday. That doesn't mean the market can't go lower as it always goes where it wants to. It simply means the odds favor higher prices going forward according to the technicals. My trading tactics this week left much to be desired. That said, at least I had a winning trade. After last months blow out, over-leveraged losses to the downside, it was good to see something positive. My timing for that idea was unfortunately off by a month. However I can tell you two things that remain true in the game. You have to believe in yourself and you can never give up. Gold continued higher this week but the gold shares certainly did not follow. That usually isn't bullish and probably isn't in this case either. So it is probably best to remain on the sidelines here. Plenty of charts to ponder over the weekend as I try and come up with the next trading idea. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Not as volatile today as the Dow fell 24 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive though, as the overall market was stronger than the Dow. Trying to find a bottom for now in my opinion. The summation index may start to turn back up here. The short term technicals are trying to turn around as well. I'm looking at the November OEX calls now for the next trade. The other choice is to wait for a return to the newly formed down trend line and then buy some puts. Not exactly sure which to do. We'll let the expiration happen tomorrow and go from there. GE was flat on the session and the volume was heavy. The earnings out tomorrow will be the driver perhaps for the overall market as well. No idea what to expect there. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished the day basically unchanged. The XAU was flat as well. ABX and GG were up 1/4, while NEM was flat. Volume was average. The gold shares haven't moved up with gold and that isn't bullish. No trades here for now. Mentally I'm still kicking myself for yesterdays lousy trade execution. But it doesn't matter now. You've got to keep moving forward in this game. It isn't always easy to do. The battle is always against yourself. I'll try and do better the next trade. The markets really don't care about you. But you have to care about yourself. I'm expecting some near term upside once we get through the expiration tomorrow. The technicals point to that. However the option premiums for November are high due to the recent volatility and the extra week in the cycle. So I'll probably tread lightly. Gold has found mild interest here but not the gold shares. Earnings due there at the end of this month. I can't think that there will be any good news there but who knows? We'll see if the overseas markets can put a halt to their free fall tonight and brace for option expiration tomorrow.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
It was an extremely volatile session in the stock market today. We opened down over 200 points in the first ten minutes. The market then made its way back to being less negative for an hour or so. We then sold off hard and midway through the day were off 450 points. The VIX climbed above 30. But then the Dow made another comeback and finished the day off 173 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. This is the blow off session that I was looking for. Unfortunately I did not trade it well. I did get rid of the October OEX puts but I did not get the best price that I could and should have. My intra-day tactics were poor. Once again I was not up to the task. It is a humbling game at times. The profit was 750% but it could have been better. The low is now in. That's my opinion. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was extremely heavy. I'm still going to wait for the earnings report on Friday before I do anything here. The March calls are the trading idea here. Gold found a bid and the futures rose ten bucks as the US dollar got crushed. The XAU was flat however. ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional losses. Volume was average. With such a crazy day in the stock market, the gold shares didn't have any sustained interest. That isn't bullish. Especially with the dollar getting hammered. Not sure of what to make of that. No trades here for now. Mentally I'm feeling pretty tired. It has been a while since we've seen this kind of volatility. The comeback today was impressive and for that reason along with the extended oversold technical condition, I feel confident that the low today will hold up going forward. We may drift our way back down there over the rest of the month but it should hold. That is around the 1820 level on the S&P 500. The extreme volume constitutes a shake out to the downside in my opinion. I simply did not take full advantage of it and I had my opportunities. My entry for this trade was very good. My exit was poor. Even making whatever money that I did doesn't matter if the trading tactics can't be executed properly. Perhaps I'll feel different about that tomorrow but I doubt it. I should have had a better game plan for the day and written it down. When the market gets crazy like today, that's probably a good idea. But it doesn't matter now. Still a couple of days in the October option cycle but I won't be making any more trades this week. Perhaps some November index calls will be in order. I do expect to back and fill for a while here though. Gold found buyers but the gold shares remain stagnant. That is not a positive. Perhaps I will lay off trading gold for the rest of the year. The stock indices had a downside blow off today and I think that the lows are in. Notice todays chart of the RUT. I'll be looking for November calls perhaps on a retest of todays lows. We'll see how the foreign markets react to todays market activity overnight and see what happens tomorrow.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Another crazy session as the Dow was up well over 100 points but closed with a loss of 5 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive and the overall market was stronger than the Dow. That's a positive. The summation index continues lower though. Option expiration week and only three days to go. Plenty of earnings coming out and we've got some economic data due for the rest of the week. We started out strong and continues to build on that but then faltered during the second half of the session. I still have the October OEX puts but I really should sell them tomorrow. They will be profitable. GE was up 1/8 after being much higher early on. Earnings out on Friday and I will let that get out of the way before thinking about taking a position. Gold was up $4 on the futures despite a stronger US dollar. Flight to safety money is my guess there. The XAU gained 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all gained around 1/4 on average volume. These issues also were higher during the session and then came back. The gold shares seem to be following the overall market here. No trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling tired, not enough sleep. The small stocks are starting to act better but it's all relative I suppose. I'm not sure that we're out of the woods yet with respect to this decline. I'd like to see a washout session to be sure and we haven't had that yet. I don't know if we'll get it by expiration Friday, if at all. We are no doubt overextended to the downside and have been in a waterfall type decline for a few days. Oversold, staying there and through the zero line on the summation index. I can only guess at downside targets from here. Gold has found some buyers here but I don't know if it has staying power. I'm in no rush for the January gold share calls yet. I've got to stay focused on the OEX for now. Retail sales, inflation data and the Feds beige book due tomorrow. Volatility will no doubt be on the menu. We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight and go from there.
Monday, October 13, 2014
Continuing lower as the Dow fell 223 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were only 2 to 1 negative though. The summation index is still moving lower. We finished near the lows of the session again and that's not a positive. But the small stocks held up relatively better. My October OEX puts are showing good profits. Only four days to go in the October option cycle. I will have to sell them soon. However the market is in free fall. I think it could go on for a couple of more days but I could be wrong. Oversold and staying that way for the stock indices and that is not bullish. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good. GE helped lead the way lower. Earnings due on Friday. I'm looking at the March calls here. Gold found buyers again as the futures rose $8. The US dollar was lower today. The XAU gained 1 1/4 but was higher early on. ABX was flat, while GG and NEM were up 1/3. All were higher during the trading day. Volume was around average. I'm looking at the January calls here, perhaps with NEM. However it's possible I may just step aside and not do anything. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility has shot up and that makes the trading tougher than usual. The technicals are oversold on the major stock indexes. It is really getting dicey. Almost 100 S&P 500 points lower in three trading sessions. I don't know how low this will go but we kind of need to see a blow out downside session to put an end to it. Was that today? Hard to tell with a moderately negative A/D line. I'd still advise caution for now. Gold may be trying to find a bottom here and the gold shares as well. But the fundamentals for the precious metals really haven't changed and they aren't positive. Earnings due out at the end of the month foe the gold shares. But I suppose the focus is now on the stock indices and how much longer the decline will last. The 200 day moving average was taken out today on the S&P 500. A 10% correction here would take us to the 1800 level. I don't know if that will happen. We do seem to be going straight down at the moment. It was a partial holiday today and all the world markets will be back at it tomorrow. We'll keep an eye on the overseas action and see what happens tomorrow.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Downside continues as the Dow fell 115 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The negative reaction to the break of the zero line in the summation index continues. The summation index also continues lower. The small stocks got clobbered again and are still leading the way lower. That is a negative. I do not know how long that this decline will last but there are only five days left in the October option cycle. My October OEX puts are solidly in the black. When to sell them is the ongoing question. GE was down 1/2, volume was heavy and we have taken out the recent low. If GE is a precursor, it spells more trouble for the stock indices. Solidly below the 50 week moving average here now. I'm looking at the March calls but will wait to make a purchase. Gold finished the session a bit lower on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session. The XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses after being higher earlier. Volume was average. The gold shares are following the overall stock market lower. I'm not exactly sure what to do here so it would be wise just to stay out. The gold shares are very cheap but who is to say that they can't get cheaper? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The market is indeed falling apart at this juncture. How low will we go? It is something to consider over the weekend. We closed near the lows for the day and that isn't a good sign. I'm guessing that next week should be pretty interesting. Oversold on the short term and almost there medium term. I still think it's a time to be cautious. As I said yesterday we may not crash but falling apart every day is an option to that. Plenty to consider over the weekend. Gold held up this week but who can say if that will last? The fundamentals of a stronger US dollar combined with the looming threat of higher rates isn't and hasn't been a positive for gold. However, if the roughly $1200 level holds, then the gold shares might be a trade for the calls. Hasn't happened yet. The gold shares have been blown out to the downside for weeks and they keep going lower. We are at an interesting point for the stock indexes. The Dow has held up a lot better than most. We're heading lower and the question is how far and how fast? Keep an eye out for your longer term buys because this month will be the time to make them. The timing, as usual is the hard part. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to hopefully be prepared for Monday morning. Monday is a partial holiday in the US and some foreign markets will be closed. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, October 09, 2014
The volatility is extreme. The Dow fell 335 points today, which wiped out yesterdays advance. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. Volume was heavy. If we get follow through downside then I will have to say going through the zero line on the summation index will cause the rapid decline that has been envisioned here. If we head back up tomorrow then who knows? Anything can happen at this rate. Of course I'm hoping we get more downside as my OEX October puts are back to having a nice gain. The fact that we could not hold the gains of Wednesday is bearish. But anything can happen in this game. You need to keep an eye on things going forward. GE was off 1/2 and the volume was average. Perhaps the March calls can be had at a good price soon. However I would not attempt anything until after the October earnings report. Gold was up almost $20 on the futures but most of that was from the aftermarket yesterday. The US dollar was up today as well. Flight to safety? The XAU gave back 3 1/8. Now I am not so sure of the rebound in the gold shares. ABX off 3/8, GG fell 7/8 and NEM shed almost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy here again. Yesterday I thought that the decline in the gold shares was done for good. Today I'm not so sure. I'll have to consider it tonight though. Gold is seeing a bid here and the gold shares are following the overall market lower. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The computer problems aren't helping things. Tomorrow should be another interesting day. Technically we're in a vulnerable spot for rapid downside in my opinion. The market is trying to make up its mind here. I'm not saying that we will see an October crash but the conditions are there. They rarely are. Caution is advised and keep an eye on things that you would like to own for the longer term. Gold and the gold shares are out of control and have been. The technicals ceased working there at the beginning of September. They are way oversold but who says they can't go lower? Maybe yesterday was just a dead cat bounce for the gold shares and gold. I don't know. I will be once again looking at the January calls though. The overnight markets should be rocking and rolling. We'll see how the week wraps up tomorrow.
Wednesday, October 08, 2014
Another crazy day in the neighborhood as the Dow turned things around on the Fed minutes and blasted off to the upside. It gained 274 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. We are back to a bullish pattern on the daily S&P 500 candlestick chart. Although the summation index is heading lower, after today it appears that this indicator will turn up in the next few sessions. The volatility is pretty rampant right now. Today was a combination of actual buying combined with a lot of short covering. My October OEX puts are still in the black even with todays powerful upside. They have lost the bulk of their profit though. Only seven days left for this trade. GE was up 3/8 and the volume was good. A lot of stocks are showing a bullish turnaround after today. GE is one of them. No trades in mind here for now. The gold futures were down in the regular session but took off in the aftermarket for an $8 gain. The US dollar was lower on the Fed minutes. The real story here was the one day reversal in the XAU as it soared 5 1/3. ABX up 3/4, GG climbed two points and NEM rose a buck. Volume was good. Any pullback can be bought here in my opinion. It appears that the roughly $1200 level on gold will hold. This morning was the perfect time to purchase the gold share calls. Mentally I'm in trouble. My computer and its back-up crashed today midway through the trading session. I was able to temporarily restore the connection to my accounts but usual procedures were not available. I now have to purchase and install new trading equipment. This is certainly not the ideal time to deal with that. The major stock indices appear that they will be able to hold on after todays price action. Once again unless there is a dramatic turnaround tomorrow, prices should move higher from here. It is a crazy game sometimes. But we have to go with what the market tells us. Keep a close eye on the McClellan oscillator and summation index. The summation index should turn around by the end of the week. The move in the gold shares today was incredible. There still might be a chance to try the calls there but we will have to be patient. Sometimes, things can turn on a dime. We saw that today for the gold shares. The reality is that really nothing has changed from yesterday. But money moves around regardless. We should see more follow through upside for the stock market tomorrow. I would also expect the overseas markets to rally overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, October 07, 2014
So here we are. The Dow fell 272 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower and has gone through the zero line. This is what we have been waiting for. No reason for the decline as the technicals have taken over. How low will we go? Who knows? I'd guess to at least 1900 on the S&P 500. The recent positive candlestick pattern on the S&P has been negated. We don't get in this zone very often but it does get interesting when we do. So keep a very close eye on things this week. There will be opportunity because next year should be pretty good for the stock indices. What I'm saying is that if you are looking to purchase stocks with a longer term horizon, the next couple of weeks will be when to really take a look. GE fell 3/8 on average volume. I'm looking at the March calls here but not to purchase just yet. Gold was up $5 on the futures as the $1200 level tries to be the stopping point. The gold shares did not follow as the XAU lost 2 7/8. The US dollar was off just a bit. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around 60 cents. Volume was good. The gold shares are so hammered that it is really hard to believe. I'd like to try the calls again but it seems like that strategy has never worked for me this year. It is probably best just to wait for some kind of positive divergence with the technicals and then maybe give them another try. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Things should continue lower here for the major stock indices. My October OEX puts remain in the black. When to sell them is the next challenge. The 200 day moving average comes in at around 845. Unless we get a complete turnaround tomorrow, we're heading lower and probably in a hurry. Gold is starting to stop going down but the gold shares remain weak. That could be a factor of the overall stock market decline and probably is. I'll have to fight myself not to try and trade them with calls once again. But you never know. We'll see if the foreign markets continue their decline overnight. Tomorrow should be an interesting session.
Monday, October 06, 2014
A flip flop session and a slight one day reversal to the downside as the Dow fell 17 points on average volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. Although we have a bullish candlestick formation on the daily S&P 500 chart, I still think things could go either way. The summation index has not turned around to the upside yet. This week should be pivotal for market direction. The small stocks were relatively weaker today also. We are still right at the down trend line beginning in mid-September for the major stock indices. A break through this line will be the all clear signal. If not, lower prices are coming. GE was off almost 20 cents on average volume. Still below the 50 and 200 days moving averages here. Gold found some buyers as the US dollar has its worst session in months. The precious metal futures were up $14 and back above $1200. The XAU rose 1 1/4. ABX barely was higher, while NEM and GG added 1/2. Volume was OK for the gold shares. I said that I would not trade the gold shares again this year and that is probably what I will do. However if I do see a divergent set-up here eventually, I might give them another try. Just as the US dollar had a parabolic run up, gold has has a precipitous drop. But as usual, one day doesn't make a trend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm still holding my October OEX puts and they are still showing a profit. The only reason to continue to hold them here I've already spelled out. But let us not forget that we are practically at the zero line in the summation index. This doesn't happen very often. If we break the zero line here the market will go into free fall. I'm not saying that will happen but the chance is there and it rarely is. This week should tell. No reason for the drop in the dollar and the rise in gold today. One has been overbought for an extended period and the other just the opposite. The markets move where they want. The gold shares didn't do much today and we would like them to be leaders to have a good feeling about gold moving higher. We'll keep and eye on the action overseas tonight and see what tomorrow brings.
Friday, October 03, 2014
Quite a session as the Dow rallied on above average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The jobs number was high and the market took off from the open. The summation index hasn't turned around yet but it is about to with more positive action. I assumed that the zero line on the summation index would be taken out with a steep decline. After today, it looks like the zero line will hold and contain this recent decline. The daily S&P 500 candlestick chart now has a bullish bottoming pattern on it. The banks stocks are doing well here and there can be no extended decline when these stocks are doing well. GS would be an example of that. My October OEX puts are still in the black. I can thank a good opening spot for the position for that. I will have to exit on a retest of the lows of this week, if that occurs. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light. I do think the earnings here will be impacted by the recent rally in the US dollar. So I am waiting on getting some March calls for next year. Gold broke through the $1200 level today as the bear market for metals hits new lows. The US dollar soared on the day and is parabolic in nature. The XAU fell 3 1/4. ABX and NEM dropped 1/2, while GG fell a buck. Volume was good for the gold shares to the downside again. The price dropped past my stop loss order for the ABX January calls that I own early this morning. I simply sold them at the market when that happened. That is another of the new risk management rules I've put in place. If the price goes past the stop loss price, just get out at the market. This won't happen often but it could occur. The loss here was just a bit over 50%. I don't know how much lower the gold shares can go but this is beyond ridiculous. Oversold, staying there and it looks like gold wants to go to $1000 after today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. All of the major stock indices are showing positive daily candlestick charts after todays action despite recently breaking their up trend lines. We are also right up against the down trend line for the S&P 500 that began in mid-September. I expect that line will be broken to the upside next week. The only thing that would change the positive outlook would be a very negative week next week. I do not think that will happen. Some of the technical indicators got to levels this past week that contained previous declines. It seems as if they have contained this decline as well. Speaking of declines, gold and silver continue a relentless move lower. The gold shares as well. It all seems to be US dollar related. I will probably not trade gold again this year. I've lost way too much money there already. I was pleased that I simply sold off the losing ABX call position today. I actually did what I was supposed to do for a change, even if it was for a loss. I did not move the stop lower even though the contracts don't expire until January. So at least I did something right this year. Now I will have to decide how to get rid of the October OEX puts. I'll debate that over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, October 02, 2014
A pretty good comeback today as the Dow was down over 100 points and made it back to finish the day with a loss of 3 points. The advance/declines were slightly positive. Volume was heavy again. The summation index continues lower. My guess is short covering today ahead of tomorrows employment report but who knows? Rallies appear out of nowhere in down trends. And we are still in a down trend. Almost at the zero line on the summation index. The small stocks acted better today but one day doesn't make a trend. GE was off a few cents on average volume. No trades here for now. Gold was little changed despite a drop in the US dollar. The XAU gained 2/3. ABX was flat on the session, while GG and NEM had fractional gains. Volume was good here. Nothing to change the persistent selling in gold and the gold shares. Oversold, staying that way with no end in sight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Tomorrows price action will be pretty important. If we rally there is a chance that the decline is over. But I don't think that will occur. I think that we are in a multi-week decline and things will get worse to the downside before they get better. I really don't think the numbers tomorrow mean as much as the price action afterwards. We are short term oversold on the stock indices. However in downturns the markets simply remain that way. So we'll see. Gold has stayed above $1200 so far but there hasn't been any rally attempt yet. The gold shares remain weak. This is like a broken record. The foreign markets got slammed last night. Perhaps todays action in the Dow will help out there. But there is trouble in the streets of Hong Kong and that isn't going away soon. Interesting times. So hold on to your seats folks as tomorrow should be a very volatile session.
Wednesday, October 01, 2014
More downside to start the month of October as the Dow fell 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. It looks like we will now fall apart with respect to the stock indices. The summation index is going to go through the zero line. This is what was a possibility but now will become reality. The small stocks continue to show relative weakness and that is a negative. How low will we go? I'm guessing to the 200 day moving average at least. That is the 1900 level on the S&P 500. Up trend lines have now been broken. So keep an extra eye on things as they develop here. Could get ugly but it will be interesting. GE lost almost 1/2 on good volume. Not sure how far GE will go down but lower from here for sure. GE wasn't a precursor this time around. Gold found a slight bid but closed off of the highs and was only up a few bucks. The US dollar barely moved today. The XAU was off a few cents after being higher earlier in the session. ABX and GG had slight fractional gains, while NEM lost a few cents. Volume was OK. My ABX calls are still in the red and about to be stopped out. Gold and the gold shares remain unloved. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So now we will see just how far this thing goes down. It should be in a hurry, as that's how the market goes when the technicals collapse. The question is will they run things down all the way to expiration this month? It will be hard for me to hold on to the October OEX puts that long. I'll have to look for support levels and then decide what to do when we get there. The 200 day moving average for the OEX is around 840. Gold has no takers despite the turmoil. Perhaps $1200 can hold but that's simply a guess on my part. I've been wrong about the direction of gold for most if not all of the year. We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US equity lead down overnight. And we haven't even gotten to the employment report on Friday.