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Wednesday, October 01, 2014

More downside to start the month of October as the Dow fell 238 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  It looks like we will now fall apart with respect to the stock indices.  The summation index is going to go through the zero line.  This is what was a possibility but now will become reality.  The small stocks continue to show relative weakness and that is a negative.  How low will we go?  I'm guessing to the 200 day moving average at least.  That is the 1900 level on the S&P 500.  Up trend lines have now been broken.  So keep an extra eye on things as they develop here.  Could get ugly but it will be interesting.  GE lost almost 1/2 on good volume.  Not sure how far GE will go down but lower from here for sure.  GE wasn't a precursor this time around.  Gold found a slight bid but closed off of the highs and was only up a few bucks.  The US dollar barely moved today.  The XAU was off a few cents after being higher earlier in the session.  ABX and GG had slight fractional gains, while NEM lost a few cents.  Volume was OK.  My ABX calls are still in the red and about to be stopped out.  Gold and the gold shares remain unloved.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now we will see just how far this thing goes down.  It should be in a hurry, as that's how the market goes when the technicals collapse.  The question is will they run things down all the way to expiration this month?  It will be hard for me to hold on to the October OEX puts that long.  I'll have to look for support levels and then decide what to do when we get there.  The 200 day moving average for the OEX is around 840.  Gold has no takers despite the turmoil.  Perhaps $1200 can hold but that's simply a guess on my part.  I've been wrong about the direction of gold for most if not all of the year.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US equity lead down overnight.  And we haven't even gotten to the employment report on Friday.

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