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Thursday, October 09, 2014

The volatility is extreme.  The Dow fell 335 points today, which wiped out yesterdays advance.  The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative.  Volume was heavy.  If we get follow through downside then I will have to say going through the zero line on the summation index will cause the rapid decline that has been envisioned here.  If we head back up tomorrow then who knows?  Anything can happen at this rate.  Of course I'm hoping we get more downside as my OEX October puts are back to having a nice gain.  The fact that we could not hold the gains of Wednesday is bearish.  But anything can happen in this game.  You need to keep an eye on things going forward.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume was average.  Perhaps the March calls can be had at a good price soon.  However I would not attempt anything until after the October earnings report.  Gold was up almost $20 on the futures but most of that was from the aftermarket yesterday.  The US dollar was up today as well.  Flight to safety?  The XAU gave back 3 1/8.  Now I am not so sure of the rebound in the gold shares.  ABX off 3/8, GG fell 7/8 and NEM shed almost 1 1/4.  Volume was heavy here again.  Yesterday I thought that the decline in the gold shares was done for good.  Today I'm not so sure.  I'll have to consider it tonight though.  Gold is seeing a bid here and the gold shares are following the overall market lower.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  The computer problems aren't helping things.  Tomorrow should be another interesting day.  Technically we're in a vulnerable spot for rapid downside in my opinion.  The market is trying to make up its mind here.  I'm not saying that we will see an October crash but the conditions are there.  They rarely are.  Caution is advised and keep an eye on things that you would like to own for the longer term.  Gold and the gold shares are out of control and have been.  The technicals ceased working there at the beginning of September.  They are way oversold but who says they can't go lower?  Maybe yesterday was just a dead cat bounce for the gold shares and gold.  I don't know.  I will be once again looking at the January calls though.  The overnight markets should be rocking and rolling.  We'll see how the week wraps up tomorrow.  

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