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Friday, October 24, 2014

Another good day for the Dow as it gained 127 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Declines can be bought in my opinion.  My November OEX calls are in the red.  They will be sold next week as this trade will probably get stopped out.  I'll probably try and wait for the Fed on Wednesday but the bottom is in and higher prices are coming for the future.  Short term overbought and staying there for the stock indices.  It is surprising how the tone has changed in such a short time.  But like we already know, the market will go where it wants.  GE was up about 20 cents but the volume was very light.  I still like the March calls here if we ever see some pullback.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the session as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU was off 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had minor moves one way or the other on lighter volume.  Earnings out next week for the big three and I'm tempted to try the November calls here now.  However it is probably more prudent to let the announcements pass and forget about the gold shares for now.  I'll think about it over the weekend.  There are potentially positive daily RSI divergences in these stocks though.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Holding a losing trade at the moment but because the volatility has picked up so much, the prices for the index options stay inflated.  The extra week in the November cycle has helped keep the premiums up as well.  I'll need to have some early week weakness for this trade to break even right now.  I do not see any huge declines coming up for the stock indices.  The trend has changed, we will not be retesting the recent lows and longs are suggested.  Still no love for gold and the gold shares.  The small rally we had in gold is now fading.  The fundamentals for gold are still negative.  I can maybe make a case for trying the gold share calls ahead of the earnings next week but there are probably better trades out there.  I'll consider what to do over the weekend.  I'll also try and not talk myself into doing something stupid.  But you never know.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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