Wednesday, December 31, 2008
The Dow gained 108 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. End of the year but at least we continued higher, adding on to yesterdays gains. We are short term overbought and a pullback should be expected. Gold was up over $10 today as commodities had a good day all around. The XAU tacked on another 2 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains. Volume wasn't that bad considering. I still like the gold shares. GE was up 40 cents on light volume. My calls are just hanging around. Looks like I may start the new year with a loss. Mentally I'm holding up as my computer has tanked and is out for repair. I will have to hook up the back up tomorrow when we are closed for the New Years holiday. It is a hassle for sure but I am trying not to let it bother me. Looking back on the trading year it was a profitable one but I was so busy today I haven't figured the details. I'll post the results within the next couple of days
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
I am back now on a different computer. The gold shares had fractional losses on light volume. I still think gold could do well going forward and continue to wait for a pullback there. GE was up just a touch on light volume. My calls are going nowhere and it looks like I may have to take the loss there. We'll see how the week ends up. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. My computer is acting up and I will try and fix it tomorrow. The game is tough enough on its own. External problems such as with the computer or the data feed just add to the problems. No need to stress out but it is a hassle. It will be fixed eventually and trading goes on regardless. On to the year end tomorrow.
About 5 minutes to go and the Dow is up over 180 points. Advance/declines are 3 to 1 positive and the volume is light. Expected an upside pop and we are getting it. Doesn't mean much at this point. We'll have to see what follows. Gold was off $5 and the XAU is off about a point. I am having computer problems that make typing almost impossible. I will try and continue the blog on another computer later today.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Another downer to start the week as the Dow lost 31 points on light volume. We were down a buck fifty at one point. Advance/declines were negative. Just a couple of days left in this years trading. It looks like we're in a holding pattern until next year and then perhaps nothing happens then either. But we'll see. I do expect some type of pop to the upside within the next 3 days according to the technicals in my view. Gold was up about 5 bucks today and the XAU rose 3 1/2 points. ABX and GG tacked on a buck and NEM was up 2. Volume was good in the gold shares as international unrest helps its cause. The money is flowing into gold and that has been a theme for the past 2 months. GE lost 30 cents on light volume. My calls continue to lose ground but I'm holding them for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Todays action suggests that perhaps we will move higher near term. However with light volume and another holiday week in store, nothing is for certain.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Another holiday light volume snooze fest as the Dow tacked on 47 points. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Not much to make of todays movement. Gold was up over $20 and the XAU gained 5 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by around 1 1/2. Volume light here as well but the gold shares had more interest than anything else. Geo-political tension between India and Pakistan could be the reason. GE was down a bit on weak volume as well. My calls lost more ground as time decay takes hold. In retrospect, I should have let this week pass before making the trade. Mentally I'm just taking it easy. Perhaps things will get a bit more interesting next week.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
The Dow gained 49 points in a holiday shortened session. Volume was extremely light and the advance/declines were positive. The trading here doesn't mean much. We are in holiday mode. Gold was up about $10. The XAU was flat. Volume weak. GE lost about 1/3 with the same weak volume. My calls are now a bit under water. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not much else to say here on Christmas Eve. Time to relax.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Down 100 points on the Dow today with holiday light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Short term oversold and expecting a bounce. Half day trading tomorrow and then we get the Friday after Christmas. I don't expect much to happen for the rest of this week. Gold lost $9 but the XAU gained over 3. ABX, GG and NEM all higher on light volume. The gold shares are still attracting interest. That's something to be watched. GE was up 1/3 on light volume. The calls I own are about where I got them. I don't expect much to happen here either for the rest of the week. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well enough. Time for an extended break from the game. I'll keep an eye on things and run the numbers but the rest of the week is a wash in my opinion. The major players won't be back until next week or next year. So it's time for a break and then start up again on Monday.
Monday, December 22, 2008
It was a negative start to a holiday shortened week as the Dow lost 59 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. A last half hour comeback limited the damage as we were down over 200 at one point today. We are short term oversold but in a week like this you can't make much of anything in my opinion. I think we drift higher to sideways here but that is just a guess. Moves in either direction can get exaggerated in an environment such as this. Gold was up around $10 today but the XAU dropped 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM all down around a buck or so on light volume. If and when the gold shares get oversold again, I'd be a buyer of the calls. We'll have to wait and see what happens there. GE lost 1/3 on light volume. I had an overnight order in for some January calls and it got filled. I could have gotten a better price but I'll take it. The game plan is to hold the calls for an expected rally at the beginning of 2009. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'm expecting this GE trade to carry over and be the first trade for next year. However adjustments will be made if necessary. I don't expect much this week as I said earlier. So we'll see what happens.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Expiration Friday as the Dow lost 25 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. Once again the breadth has held up here and portends higher prices ahead. So we'll see. The overall market was stronger than the Dow also. Summation index still rising. I am still looking for calls. Gold futures lost $20 but the XAU rose almost 2 points. ABX and GG had fractional gains while NEM rose almost a buck. The dollar was much stronger today as volatility has returned to the dollar index. I still like the gold share calls for January here at some point. GE was up 40 cents on pretty good volume. There was no downside follow through for GE and that's a plus. I did put an order in for January calls but it wasn't filled. Perhaps on Monday I'll try again. However there is always a possibility that we move sideways. Mentally I'm doing OK. It's holiday time for the markets and it's been quite a year. My thinking is that things will slow down for the next couple of weeks. I still want to get positioned for the beginning of next year. That is the dilemma. So I'll see how it goes. For now it's the weekend. Check of the charts of course and attempt to come up with a game plan for next week. I really need to work on the focus and concentration aspects of what I'm doing. If I can manage that then I think everything else will fall into place. Time for a break.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
The market fell down today, off 219 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. However the breadth of the market hasn't deteriorated as it did in the past couple of months. I remain confident of higher prices going forward. I don't think this is the start of a huge decline but I've been wrong before. Summation index still heading higher. I'll be looking for calls. Gold fell today, down about 8 bucks on the futures. It dropped more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell almost 9 points. ABX, GG and NEM all lost about 2 points. Volume was average. The dollar bounced today. I still am a believer in the gold shares. Volume has been strong to the upside. Perhaps the January calls. However, the weekly chart on the gold shares will look bearish unless there is a huge rise tomorrow. GE got killed today on a credit downgrade. It lost 1 1/2 on heavy volume. I still like the January calls there and am keeping an eye on them. Perhaps a purchase there next week for the new year. Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired with not enough sleep last night. After tomorrow, holiday time will be upon us. Volume will be low and the option premiums should decay. That's what usually happens but this has been a pretty intense trading year so who knows? I still want to get some January calls at some point. I'll try my best to pay attention. The discipline and focus required hopefully will return soon.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
No follow through today as the Dow lost 100 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. I think the action today was expiration related. The trend is still up in my opinion. We are working off a short term oversold condition. May get some fireworks into Friday one way or the other. Declines can be bought in my opinion but I've been wrong before. Gold was up $25 today and the dollar continues in free fall. However the XAU lost a point as it may be time for gold to take a rest. ABX was up 3/4 but GG and NEM each lost about a buck. Volume was good again here for the gold shares. I'd like to get the calls here if we get a decent pullback in the next 2 weeks. GE lost 1/2 on average volume. I'm looking to get the January calls here as well, sometime before the end of the year. No rush though. Next week should be slow. Mentally I'm doing OK. I think today would have been a good day to take a chance on the GG puts as we had a one day reversal to the downside for the gold shares. I didn't do it though, as I've been hesitating about everything here lately. But that will eventually change. So we'll see. Otherwise it looks like I'm done trading for the 2008 trading year. I don't foresee anything else at the moment.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
A Fed rally as the Dow gained 360 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. Rates were cut 3/4 of a point and there is nothing left. I did not think the Fed would go so low. There is no ammo left as far as rates are concerned. The volume for yesterdays market was light on the decline. In retrospect, it was a clue. I'm not getting reliable volume readings and I will need to fix that. However, I had chances to get long and did not take them. Gold was up $6 and screamed higher after the Fed announcement. The XAU rose 8 points. The dollar has gotten crushed as the flight to safety ends and rates drop. ABX, GG and NEM were all up by around $2 on heavy volume. I'm still kicking myself for missing this one. The story is clear, get long gold. There are no pullbacks. GE was up almost a buck on good volume. They announced that their earnings forecasts for 2009 remain in place. Had a chance to do the December calls here as well but sat it out. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated at the moment. Opportunities have passed me by again. I need to pay more attention and have some courage. I'm still in a mental funk at the moment. The focus and desire seem to be lacking for whatever reasons. I'll need to get my head on straight and move forward.
Monday, December 15, 2008
The Dow lost 65 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were down about 100 points more than the close but rallied back in the last 1/2 hour. Waiting on the Fed tomorrow. I'm not sure what to expect there. They are calling for a 1/2 point rate cut but that would take us to a 1/2% fed funds rate. Not much left to go after that. I would not be surprised with a 1/4 cut or no cut at all. But that's just a guess. No trades in the OEX for now but I'm leaning short after the Fed announcement. Gold continued strong today on a weaker dollar. Gold was up $16 and the XAU rose 4 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over a buck on good volume. I am thinking of getting some GG puts before the Fed tomorrow. However we came down on the gold shares before rallying at the end of the day so they are not as overbought as they were. My thinking is that the dollar will rally once the Fed is out of the way. A sell the news event for the gold shares. But it is more of a hunch than something that has technical merit. GE lost a bit on light volume. I'm still in the January calls camp there. I think just shooting for the Decembers this week is too much of a risk. We are working off the overbought condition very nicely and it is a matter of timing at this point. But again, anything can happen. Mentally I'm kind of in a funk with no clear decisiveness for a trade really. I've been risk averse for the past couple of weeks. I think it has more to do with not wanting to incur a loss before the end of the year. I also missed the gold trade and it would have been a beauty for December. So on it goes. I may try a Fed play but hopefully won't. The needed focus isn't there yet. As usual it's up to me. Tough game.
Friday, December 12, 2008
The Dow gained 64 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened about 200 points lower and fought back all day from that. The market wants to go higher. Summation index still pointing upwards. No need to fight it. Fed next week and we'll go from there. Gold lost $6 but the XAU rose 2 3/4. The gold shares are leaders here. NEM up over a buck with ABX and GG fractional gainers. Volume was decent. Pullbacks are met with buying. I'd still like to get long here but we remain overbought. GE didn't do much and the volume was light. I still am looking at the January calls here. One week for December options and that might just be a bit too risky. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have used some more sleep. I'd like to get positioned for the beginning of next year with some calls. Perhaps if we get some weakness next week. I'm trying to focus on what needs to be done. I have a couple of ideas and am really thinking of trying a Fed play. I'll need to check the charts over the weekend. It's time for a break.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Back to the downside today as we lost 195 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. Volume was light. I still think you can buy weakness here. We may get some selling into the Fed meeting but I would look at it as a buying opportunity for the January calls. That's my thinking at the moment. So we'll see. Gold was up another $17 today as the dollar has gotten creamed this week. However the XAU lost a point. It was a one day reversal to the downside there. ABX and GG had small gains and were well off their highs. NEM dropped 3/4. Volume was above average. Perhaps the gold shares will take a little rest here. I'm still going to look at the January calls in the gold shares. GE lost about a buck on light volume. I will be getting some January GE calls here at some point. Perhaps early next week. We've rolled over on the daily chart and I'll try and wait for GE to get oversold. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as much as wanted. Option expiration next week and perhaps volatility will return if today is any indication. Inflation data tomorrow and I don't expect any big surprises but who knows? I'm trying to stay patient but at some point you've got to make a move. The focus isn't what it needs to be though but I'm working on it.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The Dow gained 70 points today on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. It was an up and down day as the market decides what it wants to do here. I still feel that we are going higher even if we do have some weakness near term. I would use that weakness to purchase some January calls. That's the game plan at the moment. Gold had a great day, up $35. The XAU rose over 10 points. ABX, GG and NEM all up over 2 1/2 on expanding volume. We are breaking the weekly down trend line in the gold shares. Overbought here but we could stay there. I'm not feeling good about missing this move but there will be others. Friday was the day to get calls here as well. GE was up a touch on light volume. I'm waiting to get the January calls here. That will most likely be the next trade. Mentally I'm doing OK. I get the feeling here that we will be going a bit lower before we start to rise again. I could be wrong. Option expiration is next week so anything goes. Also there is a Fed meeting on Tuesday. I really need to focus here more but I haven't been able to do it. My ideas seem like that they would have worked right now but I haven't done any trades. I don't know what to say about that. Not enough guts and concentration. It isn't an easy game.
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
We were overdue for a pause and we got one today with the Dow down 242 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. I still am in the camp that says we are in some type of longer term rally here. I would be surprised if we just fell apart here and I do not expect that to happen. But I've been wrong before. Gold was up 5 bucks and the XAU managed a 3/4 gain. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on average volume. We are right at the weekly downtrend line for the gold shares and I expect an upside breakout. The dollar was just a touch stronger today. If we break through on the upside in the gold shares I may have to jump on board. Volume will be the key. GE lost a bit over a buck today on average volume. I'd like the January calls here if we get more of a pullback. The daily technicals are still in overbought territory. I'm going to try and be patient but you never know. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I think I have a handle on the market here as we seem to have moved back to a more normal situation. Volatility isn't what it was, lately. Sure, that could change but it is December and people have their minds on other things. I'm sticking with my upside market scenario and will trade accordingly. It seems to me like a market that wants to go higher.
Monday, December 08, 2008
Continuing higher and breaking above a weekly downtrend line. The Dow up 298 points on average volume. Advance/declines 3 to 1 positive. Summation index higher. No sellers at the moment. Dips can be bought until further notice. That's my opinion at the moment. I believe that it's the right one. I'll be looking for calls at decent prices going into January. Gold was up $17 and the XAU rose 7 3/4 points. The gold shares are poised to break a weekly downtrend line as well. ABX, GG and NEM all up around 2 on OK volume. The dollar was weaker today and oil was higher. I may try the December calls here but we'll see. Friday was really the optimum day to purchase. GE was up a buck on good volume as the rally there continues unabated. Sold my calls there way too early but there still may be a chance for January. Any pullback can be bought in GE at this point. I could be wrong but it doesn't feel that way at the moment. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. Should have acted on weakness Friday but did not. The focus wasn't there. The urgency was missing. The market has turned here and I've seen it before. I have somewhat of a game plan going forward but the concentration and discipline are elusive right now. I'll need to get it together before another opportunity passes me by.
Friday, December 05, 2008
It was a Friday turnaround as the Dow gained 260 points on average volume. We were down almost 200 early but came all the way back and then some. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The employment number was bleak with the most job losses in 30 years or so. The market shrugged it off and moved higher. A market that moves up in the face of bad news is going to go higher. I looked at calls to purchase but did not find anything cheap. I will keep looking. Gold lost $13 but the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares did sell off early as well. I had an order in for GG calls but was not filled. I'd still like to go out to January there so we'll see. But that doesn't mean that I won't try a December play. GE is overbought and staying there, up another 35 cents on average volume. I would like to buy the calls back there as well but will not chase it here. If we get a pullback and get down to oversold, then I'll do it. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I expected some weakness, we got it but the trading opportunities didn't look worth it in my opinion. The market appears to be stronger then I anticipated here. I'll have to make the adjustment. 2 weeks in the December cycle left to go. It's the weekend and time to check the charts and take a break.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
The Dow moved lower today ahead of the employment report. We were down 215 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We came back at the end as we were down over 300 at one point. I would expect lower prices tomorrow but the market seems to be acting better here. I'm looking to purchase some calls as I've said before. The weakness can last into Monday perhaps but I expect next week to be higher. That's the idea for now. It will change as the market moves. Gold lost $5 and the XAU dropped 2 3/4. ABX and GG were off 3/4, while NEM gained a touch. Volume was average. I'd like to get long the gold shares going out into January. When to purchase them is the question. Perhaps next week, maybe tomorrow. GE lost around 60 cents on average volume. We are overbought now for GE. However I still feel the January calls can be purchased on weakness. I could be wrong. I may even try the December calls there again. I'll have to check the charts tonight. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well last night. My thinking is that opportunity is here. How to take advantage of it is the question. I may just wait until Monday depending on how tomorrow turns out. So the employment report is the next thing that the market has to deal with. We'll see.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
The Dow continues higher, up another 172 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The price action has been constructive since the Monday meltdown. However I do expect prices to fall in the next 2 days. I would be very surprised if they did not. But what do I know? Summation index heading higher. Employment report on Friday. I'll be getting long on any pull back. Gold lost $12 today and the XAU fell 4 1/2 points. ABX and GG were both off over a buck and NEM lost almost 3. Volume was average. Yes I'd like to get some gold share calls but they did not participate in todays rally and that is troublesome. So I'll hold off for now. GE was up about 50 cents on good volume. I'll probably look to go out to the January calls if it ever corrects a bit. Again, the relative strength is there. The volume is there. GE is going higher. Mentally I'm doing OK. My work suggests lower prices within the next couple of days. If that occurs, it's a chance to get some calls in my opinion. I think that the employment report could be the trigger for a downside move. So we'll see.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Back to the upside as the Dow gained 270 points on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. We opened a couple hundred points higher, came all the way back and then took off again. So volatility has returned. I'm still looking for some more downside this week. But who knows? It's been a crazy game for months now. Yesterday was about the most negative day for the internals as I've ever seen. We've got to be washed out at some point. Gold was up $6 and the XAU gained rose 6 points. ABX and GG were up a buck and change, NEM gained 2. Volume was average. Yes, I like the gold shares again but would like to see a better pull back to get the calls. May not get it. GE was the star of the day up over 2 on extremely heavy volume. Yes, I sold the calls too early but I will be buying them back if we get a retrace in price. The relative strength is very strong in GE at the moment. Overbought for now though but the money still seems to be going there. I'll keep an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept OK. Still trying to be patient and wait for the employment report on Friday. Plenty of time in the option cycle. So we'll see what happens.
Monday, December 01, 2008
It was a rough start to the week as the Dow got clobbered, down 680 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. We were short term overbought and due for a pullback. However with a move like this it's hard to make out what's coming up ahead. Doesn't seem like there is any good news on the horizon but you never know. Employment report on Friday. I'd like to get some calls when the time is right however that may not be until next week. Gold lost over $40 today as it seemed like it was a sell everything to raise capital event again. The XAU shed 12 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around 3 bucks on average volume. Sure, I'd like to get some gold share calls but at what level is the question. Plenty of time left in the December option cycle. GE lost 1 1/2 on average volume. I may go out to the January calls here if I buy them again. I'm pretty sure that I will unless we just go into a free fall again. Can't rule anything out in this kind of market. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Has the volatility returned? Did it ever leave? It's an interesting market to try and trade. However, interesting doesn't necessarily mean profitable. I'm going to try and be patient here but you never know.
Friday, November 28, 2008
A holiday session ending higher as the Dow gained 102 points on light volume. Advance /declines were 2 to 1 positive. Overbought now and I would expect a pullback in the next couple of days. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU gained about a point. The gold shares were slightly higher on light volume. GE was the mover of the day up almost a buck on light volume. I suppose I'll try the calls there again on a pullback. Mentally I'm a bit tired but it is a holiday weekend and I hadn't planned on any trades today. I'm taking it easy and will get back to it on Monday.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Going higher as the Dow gained 247 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index looks like it has put in a double bottom and is now heading to the upside. Getting short term overbought and we will be after Friday. Bad news all around today and the market goes higher. I think that the sellers are gone for now. I'll be looking to buy something on any pullback. Gold lost $9 today but the XAU was up by almost 6 points. ABX and NEM were up over a buck and GG gained 2. The volume was pretty good for a pre-holiday session. The gold shares are the place to be and I'll be there if we get some sort of retracement. Seems like everyone has the same idea here though. We'll see. GE was up around 40 cents on average volume. I'll buy back the calls again if they get cheap. The real question I think at this point is what happens when we start to head lower at some point next week? I'm a believer in the upside for a while though. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as much as usual. It's Thanksgiving and a nice long break from the markets is in order. I think that patience is the key here. There's still 3 weeks left in the December option cycle. Shortened trading day on Friday and then we'll get back to it on Monday.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
The Dow continued higher today, up 36 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. It has the feel of a market that wants to go higher, near term. But it is a holiday week and all the players aren't on the field. Gold was flat after selling off. The dollar was weaker again. The gold shares were mixed and the volume was still pretty good. The XAU was flat. GE was up around 60 cents on good volume. I'm thinking of buying the calls here again since the relative strength is looking good here. Not sure I'll get the chance though. Mentally I'm doing OK. Might try and wait until next week to do the next trade. We'll see. Short post today due to time constraints.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Continuing higher today as the Dow gained 397 points. Volume was lighter than Friday when it was expiration related. Advance/declines were about 7 to 1 positive. Has the low now been put in? Maybe. Perhaps last Thursday was the final shakeout. I'm guessing that it was but I've been wrong quite a lot lately. That doesn't mean we won't head back down again to test it. It's been one crazy game lately. Thanksgiving week can have a positive bias at times. But that doesn't mean anything now. So we'll see. Gold added another $25 and the XAU rose 6 points. ABX up a buck, GG 1 1/3 and NEM 2 3/4. Volume was heavy again. I am a believer in this move. However we are now at the weekly downtrend line for the gold shares. I would expect some pullback here and that could be a chance to get long. There's also a chance that we just keep moving to the upside here but there was some one day reversals put in with regards to ABX and GG. I'm going to be looking to get long there though if the opportunity presents itself. GE was up 1 1/4 on very heavy volume again. The GE calls showed a profit again and I got out. It may be early but the option pricing just hasn't made sense lately. It was a 60% gain. I may try and buy them back again cheaper in the coming days. Or not. If the market continues higher, GE should go along. However I would expect some sideways activity at the least considering we've gone up pretty good in the past 2 days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Slept well enough. It's a holiday week and I expect things to slow down after tomorrow. But with this market, who knows? I'm satisfied at the moment with exiting the GE trade. I can now concentrate on perhaps a better situation. Money has come back into gold and that is where I'm going to look. But you never know. The dollar did get pounded today and oil had a pop. We'll have to see if it was just a one day wonder or the beginning of some meaningful correction in the dollar.
Friday, November 21, 2008
A positive expiration as the Dow got back what it lost yesterday. We were up 494 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. We'll have to see if we get any follow through on Monday but it is a holiday week. It may just be a one day wonder. We were oversold and today relieves that condition short term. So we'll see. It has been such a crazy time that I don't want to go out on a limb regarding the market here one way or the other. I've been quite wrong for at least a few months. Gold had a stellar day, up over $40. A flight to safety play but it sure took long enough. The gold shares went crazy with the XAU up over 18 points in a day. ABX up 6 1/2, GG up 5 1/3 and NEM up 5 1/2. All on incredibly high volume. My order for GG calls wasn't filled. Not sure that I want to chase it here but I'll look to get long on any pullback. The weekly charts look constructive at this point. GE rose over a buck on heavy volume. My GE calls didn't move. Again the option pricing completely makes no sense. I've seen it for a couple of months now. Perhaps I should just get to the sidelines. I'll be looking to exit this trade sooner rather than later. Mentally I feel OK. Missed opportunities seem to be the rule for me lately. I'm getting close but that isn't good enough in this game. The focus is getting better but not exactly where it needs to be. The market environment is dicey at best also. Still, you want to get in on the moves before they occur. I'll keep at it. The weekend is upon us. I'll check things over as usual and get ready for next week.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Crazy times are back or did they ever go away? The Dow lost 445 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 10 to 1 negative again. What can I say? It's a liquidation mode again. Selling brings on more selling and there seems to be no end. Expiration related? Of course some of that is there but it's the raising of cash by selling whatever you have left. The banking system has collapsed but at least they're still open for business. Cash is king. Gold was up over $10 but the XAU dropped a couple of points which wasn't bad considering. GG and NEM managed slight gains, while ABX had a small loss. Volume was very heavy. I have an open order in for some GG January calls. I don't know if it's the right move here but we are oversold. Who knows, I may cancel it tomorrow. GE got killed, off 1 1/2 on insane volume. The volume here has been incredible. I thought GE was a steal at $15. It is now 12 and change. I don't know what to say really. I did buy some GE calls again early this morning. Wrong move again? We'll see. I think we'll get one of those incredible up move days within a week and I should bail out then. But that may not happen. Mentally I'm a bit tired, didn't sleep as much as usual. Not to mention the volatility in the markets. But I'm hanging in there and think that perhaps this trade will work out. Expiration Friday and then a short holiday week. We all need a rest.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
The markets are breaking down again. The Dow lost 427 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. The base that I thought was forming is breaking. Unless we get a dramatic turnaround tomorrow to the upside, there is no base. My opinion was wrong again. The market is proving me wrong once again. How low will we go? We'll see. Gold was up 3 bucks but the XAU dropped almost 4 points. ABX was unchanged while GG and NEM lost around a buck. I'm looking at the gold shares calls again but it's risky. The dollar remains strong with all of the market uncertainty. There was also talk of deflation from the Fed today and that won't help the cause for gold. The Gold/XAU ratio doesn't seem to work anymore. It's a crazy time. GE lost 1 1/2 on very heavy volume. I did have an order in for GE calls but canceled it. Might try again tomorrow but I'm not sure. I'll mull it over tonight. I also had an order in for OEX calls at one point but canceled that as well when the market broke through support. 2 days for the November option cycle and I really should not try anything at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day. It could get ugly. There may be some opportunities though. Hopefully I'm up for the challenge. There is nothing wrong with the sidelines though. Cash looks like it's king again. The selling seems like the liquidation we've seen since September. Everything goes just to raise cash. That seems to be the mode that is continuing.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
We ended the day up 151 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were negative though. Volume picked up a bit from yesterday. We were off over 150 at one point but came back late in the day. I did want to pick up those OEX calls but didn't. I still might give it a shot but we are running out of time and the risk is high. May not stop me though. Still forming a bottom here in my opinion or at least moving sideways. The longer it takes to form, the better the rally should be if we get one. Gold lost $9 today and the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all were little changed on lighter than lately volume. No trades right now but I'm still looking out to January there. GE was little changed after being lower earlier. Volume was heavy. I may try the December calls here. Technically looks OK to do it but like I said yesterday, the trades look more like they are in a feel mode than anything else. What does that mean? We're in a very different market period with extreme volatility. It affects the way things operate. Credit markets are still frozen. There is no velocity of money. Until that changes it will be even more difficult than usual to trade. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. Trying not to do anything stupid here yet I'd like to make some money. Next week will be a wash with the holiday. 3 days until expiration. We'll see.
Monday, November 17, 2008
A downer Monday as the Dow lost 223 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Still trying to hold on here and I'm still a believer in that. It could be time to try the OEX calls for expiration week. Not a solid signal and more of the seat of the pants play. We'll see. No need to do anything else stupid this month but you never know. It still seems as though we are getting liquidation of whatever will sell, for whatever reason. We'll take it day to day for expiration week. Gold was little changed but the XAU dropped 4 points. ABX and NEM lost about a buck with GG off 2. Volume was average. Thinking about getting long gold again for January. Plenty of ideas here but will wait for the technicals to give the say so hopefully. GE was up a touch on average volume as well. Sold off and came back on the day. GE is at 15 and change. From a long term perspective I don't think you can go wrong there. Is GE going belly up? Are you kidding? In a couple of years you will look back and say it was a buy of a lifetime. Perhaps. It isn't Lehman Bros. That's just my opinion. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'd like to make some money this week. I don't want to do anything stupid though. I'm leaning towards the long side. But I could be wrong. Nothing wrong with staying in cash on the sidelines. We'll see what happens.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Back to the downside as the Dow lost 338 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We opened lower, fought back to show a gain and then dropped hard in the final hour. It's back to crazy time in the market. I'd like to say I know which way this thing is going to go but I don't. I'm sticking with the theory that we are forming a bottom and the lows will hold. It could be just a sideways affair though. Gold was up over $30 on the futures today but most of the gains in the gold shares came late yesterday. The XAU lost 4 1/2 points. ABX and GG lost about a buck, with NEM down 2. Volume was good. I may go out to January on the gold shares via calls in the coming weeks. We'll see. Just a thought at this point. GE lost a buck on heavy volume. May try the calls again here as well. But it's a tough call. The markets are in a strange place. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. I'm moving on from the last trade and missed opportunity. It's all I can do. One week left for the November option cycle. May try something next week but I'm not completely sold on the idea. Big economic summit this weekend but I doubt anything will come from it. As usual, I'll check the charts and go from there. For now it's time to step back and take a break.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Oversold and a bounce as the Dow gained 552 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We were down 300 points halfway through the session and took off from there. The lows have held once again. They will probably break eventually but now is not the time. We're still in the base building sideways mode for now. Gold futures were down over $10 on the day but rallied in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 9 1/2. ABX and GG were up around 3 on heavy volume, NEM gained 2. The gold shares had a one day reversal as well. The dollar was weaker today and oil gained a bit. It looks like today was the day to get long. GE gained 50 cents on insanely heavy volume after trading below $15. That was incredible. I wanted to get some OEX calls again but did not. Mentally it's a frustrating time. I wanted to get some OEX calls when we were down 300 and didn't. Again I did not do what needed to be done, when it needed to be done. It's a trading funk to be sure that started when I did not exit the GE trade on time. Now selling yesterday for a small loss carried over into today and I could not muster up the courage to get long when I know it needed to be done. These are things that must be worked on. The market is trading crazy again but there are opportunities to be taken advantage of. I haven't been up to the challenge as yet. So we'll move on to tomorrow and go from there.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
It's back to crazy time in the markets as the Dow lost 411 points on increasing volume. Advance/declines were 10 to 1 negative. There were no buyers. The summation index has turned around. Do I still think we are forming a bottom? Is the bottom in for now? I certainly thought is was but if we don't hold here now, then I was wrong again. We'll see. Tomorrow should be interesting. Gold lost around $15 and the XAU shed 8 1/2. ABX off over 2, GG and NEM down about 1 3/4. All had decent volume. The dollar gained just a bit and oil was at its lowest level this year. It looks like we are back in the sell whatever is worth something mode. GE lost a buck and a half on extremely heavy volume. The pricing on the options is not making any sense again. The calls I own only lost a penny. No matter, I dumped them for a 50% loss. That was a terrible trade and it could be the last for this year. Not a lot of money there but the tactics were horrible. I did not do what I needed to do when it needed to be done. I'm working on it. I bought another heathcare issue today and that's it for my longer term stock purchases. Mentally I'm feeling a little better, slept well. Still not all the way back as I continue to fight off a cold. The market is even more confusing that usual. If it doesn't hold up here, it will get even more uglier than it's been. And it's been pretty ugly. I did not know what was going on when we collapsed before. The technicals did not work. It has the feel of that again. So we'll see.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Lower from the start today as the Dow dropped 176 points. Volume was low again. The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. The summation index may be stalling here but I don't think it's anything to worry about. Oversold for sure at this point. I still think we are base building. I do not expect a break of the recent lows but I could be wrong. Partial holiday today so we'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold lost the $12 it gained yesterday. The XAU fell 5 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all fell over a buck but the volume was light. I'm not looking at doing anything there at the moment. GE lost 60 cents on good volume. My calls are in the red and staying there. They might make it back to break even. It depends on how the week plays out. I'm not holding on forever here though. This trade was already done wrong. Mentally I'm tired and still not feeling OK. Making the best of it. I bought another stock for a longer term hold today, EMKR. This is an alternative energy play. They have a patented solar technology that is more cost effective for commercial use. Could have gotten it cheaper, as it fell apart today but what can you do? We'll see where it goes. Otherwise I'm going to try and get some rest. I would expect to start to head higher here, near term.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Opened higher and closed lower to start out the week. The Dow lost 73 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We opened up a couple of hundred points but that was it for the upside. Getting to the point of short term oversold soon. Tomorrow is a bank holiday so the volume should be light again. Getting back to normal on Wednesday is my guess. The tone in the market is negative again. I do expect a decent upside move at some point this week. Gold was up $12 today and the XAU rose 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a buck on average volume. HL didn't do much again. No plays in gold at the moment. GE lost 40 cents on light volume. The calls I own are under water. I should be dumping them at some point this week if my brain is working properly. This is a trade that should be over. Mentally I'm not feeling well and it takes away from what I need to do here. I've got another cold and I'm far from 100% health wise. But the markets move on. I did have one of my orders filled for one of the stocks that I was watching. I now own some THC. It's a healthcare play and a long term hold for now. I'm looking at some alternative energy plays as well as another healthcare firm. We'll see. Not much else for today, I'm going to try and get some rest.
Friday, November 07, 2008
A bit of a bounce back as the Dow gained 248 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. Bad news on the employment front and we rallied anyway. Volume was lighter than yesterday though. Summation index still heading higher. Sideways to higher for the market here in my opinion. We just fell about 1000 points in 2 days but I don't think we will be heading much lower. We'll see. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU added 3 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher between 1/2 and 1. Volume was lighter than lately. No trades there. I do own HL which is getting pounded lately. It's a long term hold for me unless they go out of business. GE was up around 1/2 on light volume. The calls I have are where I bought them. I'll be looking to dump them next week hopefully, depending on the price movement. The premiums still are not moving in tandem with the stock price. It's been that way for a while. I still haven't figured that out. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. Not much else to say here. Not a good week trading, as I didn't do what needed to be done, when it needed to be done. I'm working on it. The weekend has arrived and it's time for a break. I'll check the charts and get ready for Monday.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Continuing to the downside as the Dow dropped 443 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative. Has the volatility returned? Perhaps. Employment report tomorrow and that will be a mover. Which way is the question. I don't know. However I don't believe this is the start of another leg down to new lows. But I could be wrong. Gold lost 10 bucks and the XAU fell 8 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around 2 points on good volume. The dollar saw some strength on a flight to safety I'm guessing. I'm laying off gold for now. GE lost about a buck and a half on heavy volume. Tuesday was the day to get out. My calls are back to where I bought them. I'd buy them again here if I didn't already own them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A bit disappointed that I couldn't do what was necessary earlier in the week but that's my own fault. The battle within goes on. Otherwise just waiting for tomorrow morning and we'll go from there.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Settling out for the day as the Dow lost 490 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative today. We were overbought and a decline was in order. I don't think it's the beginning of the end. Summation index still heading higher. Obama was elected as expected. The employment report on Friday is the next event. I can't see that as being a positive but you never know. So we'll see. Gold lost $15 and the XAU shed 3 1/3, which wasn't bad considering the decline in the overall market. ABX and NEM lost ground but GG was higher on the day. Volume was average. I'm not looking at any trades for the gold shares at the moment. GE lost around 80 cents on average volume. The calls lost some ground and should have been sold yesterday. Going out to December should help the cause. The volume pattern looks favorable there but todays price action wasn't. However the option pricing there remains dicey. I still haven't figured it out. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as well or as long as needed. Again, the focus and concentration needed to be successful is huge. It's probably more important than a lot of other things when it comes to trading. Of course the technical analysis and other market work must be done. But if you can't do what you have to do, when you have to do it, it won't matter. It's at times a battle with yourself and there is no getting around that. I'm still working on it.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Overbought and staying there as the Dow gained 305 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. I expected a pull back and it didn't happen. We went straight down, will we head straight up? Not forever. Summation index higher and I think we can all agree that a bottom is in. I'd expect some follow through tomorrow morning but after that we need to take a rest. Perhaps the employment report will be the catalyst for that. Gold had a stellar day as the dollar got pounded. The yellow metal rose $30 and the XAU tacked on 12 points. The bottom has been seen there as well. ABX, GG and NEM all rose around 3 bucks on good volume. What can I say except that I missed this move in the gold shares? Frustrating to be sure but it's the nature of the game. Too late now for this part of the move. GE had a good day, up 1 1/2 on heavy volume. The options aren't moving much though. It continues to be puzzling. I'm pretty sure that I'm going to dump the calls I own tomorrow and try and buy them back cheaper in a few days. That's the thought process at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trading is the toughest game in the world. I can't think of anything more challenging. The effort required to be successful is beyond most and at times beyond me. At least I know the facts about that and don't try and fool myself. I've missed some good opportunities lately but I also haven't been in a position to let myself succeed. That is changing as I now hopefully have the proper mindset and time to do what is required. We'll get the election out of the way and go from there.
Monday, November 03, 2008
A waiting game as the Dow lost 5 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are overbought and due for a pullback. The market is waiting on the election results and the employment report. But at least we are getting into a more normal market mode. Any retreat in prices can be bought in my opinion. Gold was up around 8 bucks today but the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM didn't end with much of a change one way or the other on light volume. Wouldn't be surprised to see a pull back here as well. GE lost about 1/4 on light volume. The options went up in price which again, makes no sense. I'm holding for now but will be looking to get out. I think it is a legitimate play though. Mentally I'm doping OK, slept well enough. I am looking at some longer term trades in individual stocks as I mentioned before. However It looks like I've missed the moves because they have all rallied strongly from their lows. If we get a pull back in these issues as well, I will give them a shot. At the moment I'm stuck in HL which releases its earnings tomorrow. I bought it twice on the way down and it is a loser at the moment. No hurry there but the entry timing was way off. And so it goes.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Ending the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 144 points on what looks like lighter volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. I thought there would be some selling today but it wasn't enough to bring the markets down. Summation index higher and the markets remain overbought. Again, the worst is over for now. I'll be looking to get long when we get oversold. Gold lost $20 today and the XAU dropped 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM all lost over a buck on lighter volume. The dollar was stronger today. I think we've put in the bottom for the gold shares but that doesn't mean we couldn't go sideways for a while. I'm not looking at any trades there as of yet. GE was up a touch on average volume. The calls I own are still slightly in the black but the price movement of them continues to be a problem. I'll have to try and figure it out over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing fine, slept well enough. October 2008 was quite a month for volatility and though it has slowed a bit, it is still out there. I think we are heading higher but to what levels is the question. As I stated earlier, I am looking at some individual stocks for longer term plays. They have moved up here though and I do not want to chase them. That said, I feel we are moving into a favorable period for being long. The weekend has arrived and it's time for a break. I'll check the charts over the next couple of days and take it from there.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Another positive day as the Dow gained 190 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. End of the month tomorrow and I think we'll see some selling. But I could be wrong. Summation index has turned around to the upside again and hopefully will continue in that direction for the bulls. The bottom is in for now as I have said repeatedly lately. The question is if we get a decent rally or just move sideways. Time will tell. Gold dropped $15 today as the dollar stabilized. However the XAU gained 4 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher at least a buck or more on good volume. It looks like the fall in the gold shares has ended as well. The Gold/XAU ratio is still way out of line so there is room for the gold shares to move higher. I'm staying away from there for now though. GE was up a touch on average volume. The GE calls are still in the black but we are short term overbought. The price action on the options has been screwy lately also. I'm going to hold them until the beginning of next week and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Haven't had the focus that I need lately but that is changing. I've also been looking at some individual stocks to purchase on a longer term basis. However, that isn't the same as trading so I'm not so sure. Looking at it though. We'll get through Halloween tomorrow and go from there.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Kind of an up and down day as the Dow lost 74 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The Fed lowered rates by a half as expected. Sell the news action? End of the month coming up. Where we go from here is the question. I still think we're forming a base here. Gold was up around $15 and the XAU rose 7 3/4. ABX and GG were both up over 2 on good volume. NEM was down a touch after yesterdays great move. I don't know if this is thee bottom for the gold shares but the volume was pretty good today. GE lost about 40 cents after being higher earlier. Volume was heavy. I'm still trying to understand the option pricing there. The GE calls I have are still in the black but the price movement is puzzling. Base building here as well. Mentally I'm a bit tired did not sleep as well or as long as needed. Data feed issues again and I hope today straightened things out for good now. Regardless, the markets go on. Credit issues remain but it isn't the same day to day bailout picture as it was before. I think the worst is over for the stock market for now.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
An oversold bounce was expected but this wasn't. The market soared 890 points on what I'm thinking was good volume. I've been having trouble getting the correct NYSE volume again. Advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive. We've formed a base in the last 3 weeks and I believe that it will hold for now. But you never know in a crazy market like this. Fed announcement tomorrow. I don't think it is as important as usual because the credit mess has taken on a life of its own. So we'll see. Gold was off a couple bucks but the XAU followed the overall market higher, up over 8 points. ABX up over 2, GG up 1 1/2 and NEM up almost 5 before its earnings announcement. There have been so many false up moves for the gold shares in the last few months that it is hard to believe that this could be the one that's for real. The Gold/XAU ratio is so blown out that the gold shares could rise 100% and it still would not be back to normal levels. The dollar did lose some ground today but only time will tell if it's the beginning of a sustainable trend. GE was higher by 1 3/4 today on heavy volume. My GE calls for December were finally filled but the options didn't do much even with a move of almost 2 points. Not exactly sure about what is going on in the option premiums but I think this is a trade that could work. Mentally I'm doing fine, slept well. Back in a trade again and I think I'll play it close to the vest this time around. My last few trades have been disasters but I'm feeling better about this one already. Which really doesn't mean anything. The market will go where it wants. So we'll get past the Fed tomorrow and go from there.
Monday, October 27, 2008
An up and down Monday as the Dow tanked late and ended the day down 203 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. We are at the bottom of the base that we have been building for the last couple of weeks or so. I still believe that we will hold up here and not collapse again. I could be wrong. Fed meeting this week for whatever it's worth. We're oversold short and medium term after todays action. End of the month at the end of the week too. Should be interesting. Gold was up over $10 today but sold off in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 6 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down over 2 bucks on good volume. The dollar continues higher and oil continues lower offering no support for gold. I don't know what to say there really. Liquidation of whatever is left to sell continues. GE was off a touch on heavy volume after being much higher earlier. That doesn't bode well for tomorrow. I still have the open order for December calls out there. Might get filled tomorrow. Do I still want them? Probably. But these are crazy times and the price movements I've seen in the GE options don't make sense lately. I'm willing to give it a try though. Mentally I'm feeling tired. Did not get as much sleep as needed. I'm looking at some stocks for long term buys here. Of course it hasn't worked out with HL but who knows? Health care and the solar industry is getting my interest at the moment. We'll see.
Friday, October 24, 2008
The Dow lost 312 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative. Still building a bottom here in my opinion. I'm thinking that Monday will be a positive day because we have moved back to oversold on a short term basis. But you never know. Gold was up over $15 today. I am having computer issues again so the quotes are not up right now. The XAU was higher today, as was ABX, GG and NEM. GE was down on heavy volume. I'm leaving in the open order for December calls there. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. The computer problems should be over by Monday morning, hopefully. You can't expect to be able to trade when there are data feed issues. It's hard enough when things are going normally, technology wise. So on it goes. I'll take a break over the weekend. Check the charts, if possible and go from there. I've got my on on some stocks to purchase for what I believe will be a playable rally in the coming months. But I could be wrong. It may just be a sideways affair until we head lower again next year. Time for a rest.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
It was a back and forth day and the Dow ended up 172 on average volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. Today could have been the final retest of the lows but only time will tell on that. Could we break down here? I'm saying we won't but anything can happen. However, I still feel we are forming a bottom. Gold continues its slide, down another 20 bucks. The XAU was off 3 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all shed at least a buck and the volume was very heavy. The Gold/XAU ratio is in double digits. Unheard of. I don't know what to say there because it is incredible. GE was off a bit but was much lower during the trading day. The volume there too was extremely heavy. I'm leaving in my open order for calls there. We did hit a new recent low in GE today. However I'm sticking with the bottoming scenario. Mentally I'm doing OK. Interesting times in the market this week. There is an extra week on the November option cycle as well. We'll see what happens tomorrow but the thinking here is that we will be heading higher.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Settling things out on a negative day as the Dow loses 513 points. The advance/declines are at least 6 to 1 negative on heavy volume. A retest of the recent lows? That's my story and I'm sticking to it. But in this environment, who knows? I do feel we are building a bottom here though. May take a while. The market, as always, will go where it wants. Gold continues to the downside, off over $30 today. The gold stocks have been obliterated. ABX and GG shed 3 or more. NEM lost 4. Volume heavy. Is there no end in sight? The dollar has had a tremendous safe haven rise since last month. Oil continues lower as well. Deflation? We'll see. GE lost over 1 1/4 on heavy volume. It didn't help the December calls that I'm looking to purchase. The price actually went up as the volatility premium returns to the prices. It makes some sense but it's a different kind of option market at this point. One of which I'm not familiar. I'm leaving the order in but I may change my mind tomorrow. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. Still having computer and information feed issues. That doesn't make the trading any easier. We will have to see where the market goes for the rest of the week and take it from there.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
To the downside today as the Dow lost 231 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Volume has slowed from what it was but it is average by pre-collapse standards. Sure, we can go up and down for a while as the market forms a bottom here. Summation index continues higher. The worst is over for now in my opinion. Gold got trashed again, off over $20. ABX, GG and NEM were all down 2 or more on average volume. Nothing doing there for now. GE was up 20 cents on good volume. Up on a down day. The relative strength is there. I'm keeping in my open order for December calls. However it could be that GE is already going to move to the upside. I'm not going to chase it. Mentally I'm doing OK, having some computer issues. Feeling better but cannot push things here. If the GE trade comes to me I'll do it. Otherwise I'll be looking for the usual signals for the OEX which haven't appeared since we fell apart. I'm thinking things will get back to somewhat normal which should help with the overall trading. But you never know.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Continuing higher on a Monday as the Dow gained 411 points on average volume. Advance/declines are about 5 to 1. This should turn the summation index around as we begin to move higher on that index. The bottom for now is in. That's my opinion as it has been for a few days. That's not to say that I'm correct with that prognosis, it's just what I think. The market will go where it wants. Gold was up a couple bucks but the XAU rose over 9 points. ABX and NEM up over 3 points, with GG up 2 1/2. Volume pretty good for all as well. The gold shares either have to go up or the price of gold down to get the Gold/XAU ratio back to something resembling normal. I'd love to try and trade it again but I'm staying away for now. GE was up about a half on heavy volume. I like GE to the upside here. I'm keeping in my open order for December calls. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. A new option cycle and I've noticed some of the volatility premium is being sucked out of the option prices today. As we get back to a more normal market atmosphere, the option prices will shrink. That has to be taken into consideration. The game never gets any easier. Earnings will be coming out and that will be an individual stock mover for the next few weeks. On to tomorrow.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Option expiration Friday as the Dow lost 127 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened lower, had a nice gain and then closed down for the day. We are forming a bottom here as far as I can tell. That's my guess at this point and I'm sticking to it. Sure we could go down to the lows again but I feel that they will hold this time around. So we'll see. Gold had another bad day, off over $15. The XAU was down 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all down on good volume. Will gold come back? We're under $800 now. The dollar is the place where money is flowing. I guess I'll have to be patient with the HL shares that I own but I don't expect any rallies there anytime soon. It looks like a wait until next year scenario there. GE lost 1/3 on very heavy volume. I adjusted the open order that I have for December calls. I still think that is a trade that will work. But sometimes GE moves sideways for months at a time. And I always think every trade will work but we know better than that. I'm willing to give it a try though. Mentally I did not sleep long enough and haven't been 100% for a couple of weeks now. I am feeling better but not all the way back yet. There's work to do over the weekend. Charts must be checked. Reading must be done. The game never stops. I do think that the worst is over for now. Perhaps a rally will take place or it could be a few months of sideways action instead. Time will tell. For now it's the weekend and time for a break.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
The post is a bit early today as I have other commitments. We are up almost 400 points at the moment. Volume is good and the advance/declines are negative. Weakness can be bought in my opinion and the worst is over for now. I could be wrong. It is expiration week so anything goes tomorrow. Gold got killed today, down $35. The XAU is off about 7 as we speak. ABX and GG down over 2, with NEM off 1 1/2. Volume extremely heavy on the gold shares. The Gold/XAU ratio sets new records everyday it seems. This can't go on forever. But who knows? Gold could be signaling deflation ahead and that is a possibility. If that's the case the gold shares will be dead money. Time will tell and I really don't have a handle on it at the moment. GE is up 1/2 on extremely heavy volume. I'm leaving in the open order for December calls but at this rate it will not get filled. I should cancel it before the weekend. I do believe that calls are the way to go there for now. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well. Still not feeling good either. It wasn't a good time to be ill but when is? I'm going to tread lightly here for now until I can assess the damage and come up with a game plan going forward.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Back to the downside and that is to be expected. The Dow dropped 733 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were about 9 to 1 negative. We are going to retest the lows. Whether or not they hold is the question. I think they will and I'm sticking with that forecast. However anything can happen in an environment such as this. It is options expiration week and that intensifies the moves both up and down. I'm a believer that the lows of last Friday will hold. Gold was flat but is rallying in the aftermarket. The XAU got clobbered again, down 12 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all off about 2 points on average volume. I'd love to get some gold share calls here but an looking elsewhere at the moment. GE lost over 1 1/2 on heavy volume. This is where I'm looking. I'm in no hurry but I am leaving in an overnight order for December calls. It will take a big decline to hit the price I've put in so we'll see. I'm not expecting the market to crash. It already has in my opinion. Mentally I'm doing as good as I can. Still not feeling well and that clouds things for now. It has been quite a month so far and no one knows what the future will bring. So we'll see what happens.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
A bounce around day after yesterdays huge rise. The Dow ended down 76 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. Yes, it's not going to be straight up from here but I'm sticking with the belief that the worst is over. Any retest of the lows can be bought in my opinion. I could be wrong but in this case I don't think so. Gold lost a few bucks and the XAU was up almost 3. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher and the volume was good there. I still like the gold shares but have no trades in the works for now. GE lost 1/4 on very heavy volume. I'm still thinking December calls there. However at the moment, I'm inclined to just let this week pass. Mentally I'm still in a fog with the cold or flu. Not a good time to be trading, especially in a market like this. I'm not feeling up to it. There will be other trades down the road. It is a tough enough game when you're feeling well. Option expiration week as well. So I'll have to be patient and try to get back to normal. Forcing the issue here would not be a good strategy. On to tomorrow.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Finally a rally and a big one at that. The Dow had its best day ever, up 936 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 15 to 1. Dead cat bounce? No. We've seen the lows for this move down. We may have a retest but in my opinion it will hold and we've seen the worst for now. And it was pretty bad. But it's done. I do think that next year or later we will see lower lows but that is in the future. I'd say the final low will be in the fall of 2010. But that's way ahead of myself. For now I'd expect follow through tomorrow and then we'll head back down. But that's a guess. Gold lost another $15 today and the XAU rose 4 points. The gold shares were mixed with ABX off about 2, GG off 3/4 and NEM up 1 3/4. NEM has been the leader, so I would expect strength in the gold shares tomorrow. I dumped the remaining GG calls for the same 80% loss. It's time to move on. I did not recognize the extreme market conditions in time to do anything correct. If I did recognize them, I didn't react quickly enough. It was s series of dumb moves. I had chances to get out but did not. It's nobodies fault but mine. I'm still a longer term believer in gold here. The Gold/XAU ratio is still far out of whack. It will return to some sort of normalcy eventually. GE lost 1/2 on good volume. I don't know what to think about that. The market goes crazy upside and GE goes down? Not trades there. Mentally I'm still slow and not feeling up to par. I still have a cold and it is slow to move on. I am however finally flat and out of the market. My guess is that I'll stay that way until I'm feeling better. Finally some common sense. Costly though. It should be an interesting week but I'll have to watch from the sidelines.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Yes, it's a crazy time in the markets. We were down over 500, up almost 300 and closed off 128. Volume was heavy. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. I think we are near the bottom. Perhaps a retest of the lows on Monday and a rally from there. That's my guess. We are as oversold as it gets. But who knows? In this type of atmosphere, anything goes. Gold got clobbered today, down $30 after being up $30. ABX, GG and NEM were all off 4 to 5 dollars on heavy volume. I dumped half the GG calls for an 80% loss. Probably should have sold them all but I do expect a huge rally at some point next week that will bring everything higher. I could be wrong. I really needed to be up early and things might have worked out better but I'm still sick. You can't expect good results if you're not up to the task. Definitely a bearish move for gold. GE was higher by about 1 3/4 today on insanely heavy volume. I think you have to get some calls there because that trade could work. What I didn't like was the options in December that I'm looking at barely moved even with a decent move in the stock. So we'll see. Perhaps I'll try it on weakness Monday. Mentally I'm spent. Tough enough to play the game when you're feeling good, which I'm not. I really should have just bailed out of whatever trades I had the day I felt ill. But it's always easy to look back. I will try and take it easy over the weekend but there are a lot of things to do. I do need a rest though. There is no making sense of what is happening at the moment. The sidelines are not a bad place to be. Cash is still King in my opinion. Time for a break.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Wrong again. I was looking for some type of rally here and it definitely didn't happen. Oversold and staying there which as todays action suggests, is dangerous. The Dow lost 678 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 10 to 1 negative. It's as oversold as it gets. What I'm asking myself today is why haven't I been short? Incredible amounts of money are being made there and I missed it. Preoccupied with the gold trade? Too many other things going on outside of the markets? Feeling ill? No sense in looking back now. Even if I had owned some puts, I would have sold them long before today. But as I've said before, the normal technical analysis just isn't working in this type of environment. Gold lost $20 today but has rallied in the aftermarket. ABX lost 3/4, GG down 1 1/2, NEM off 3. All down on good volume. Now exactly how much longer am I going to hold out of the money GG calls with a week to go? I am getting as crazy as the market. Gold itself has held up well here but the gold shares just aren't keeping up. The premise was correct it seems but the trading vehicle was wrong. GE was off over a buck and a half on extremely heavy volume. Do the earnings tomorrow even mean anything anymore? I would like to have the guts to buy some GE calls tomorrow. Or lack of brains. GE is not going out of business and it's under $20 a share. We will see a bounce eventually and that is when you can take your profits. Sounds good in a reasonable market. Which this isn't. Mentally I'm tired and still not feeling well. Maybe being sick is a blessing in disguise since I haven't done anything stupid like buy OEX calls lately. I'm getting better though. Where do we go from here? Well the decline won't last forever. It's gone a lot further than I imagined. I'm thinking if GE is weak tomorrow morning I'll look at the December calls. But that's a guess just like anything else in trying times like these.
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Down, up, down, up, down as you get the picture of todays action. The Dow lost another 189 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. I still feel an oversold rally is imminent. Tomorrow? Friday? Yes I do think that is in the cards. The Fed cut rates today and so did some other countries around the globe. That won't unfreeze the credit markets but at least it shows that they're trying. These are some interesting times indeed. If I had any guts I'd buy some OEX calls on weakness tomorrow. Gold was up another $25 today and the XAU finally got into the act, up almost 18. ABX, GG and NEM all gained around 5 bucks and the volume was extremely heavy. Half the GG calls are back in the black. We are seeing 15% to 20% moves in stocks for just one day. It is insane. Only 7 days left for the October option cycle. However todays action in the gold shares, with the accompanying volume, says there is more room to go on the upside. I really need to be careful. GE was up 1/2 on good volume and the earnings are out on Friday. That is going to be market moving. Which way is the question. Mentally I'm slow and still not physically up to par. The wrong time for an illness, that's for sure. Some type of cold or flu but the markets don't care. I'll fight through it as best I can. Looking at some individual stocks that I'd like to hold for a few years but they too could be cheaper in '09 or '10. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
The song remains the same as the Dow lost another 508 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. We are probably going to have a decent bounce here in the next 2 days. We are short term oversold. That doesn't mean we can't drop another 500 tomorrow. But a short covering rally at least should be in the cards. Gold was up $20 today but the XAU was 1 1/2 down and closed near the lows of the day. ABX was up 1/2, GG up 1 1/4 but NEM was down 1 3/4. NEM has been leading the way lately. Volume heavy as it has been. GG calls dead for the most part. GE was down a buck on crazy volume. Makes sense in a crazy time. Mentally I'm in a fog as I am ill. Got some kind of cold or flu last night and it has knocked me out. Not really what I need right now but that is the reality of the situation. Short post and I need some rest. Cash is still King.
Monday, October 06, 2008
OK. We are now in the most crazy market situation in quite some time. I'd say it's a once in a lifetime type thing but it was nuts in 1987 too. We closed down about 350 points on good volume. We were down almost 800 at one point. Advance/declines were around 15 to 1 negative again. How long we will go on like this? Who knows. It is a good time to be out of the markets unless you're short. Because there is no rhyme or reason as to what is going on. The technicals just are not working in scenarios like this one. Gold was up over $30 on the futures and the gold shares tanked. The XAU lost over 6 1/2 points and at one point was even about 10 points lower than that. ABX off 2, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM off 1. All on very heavy volume. GG calls=dead. Well not completely but they are blown out and less than 2 weeks to go. The Gold/XAU ratio that I talk about is setting new records every day now. Blown out. GE was off 1/2 on insane volume. Again, was much lower, under $20 at one point. Incredible. Mentally I feel OK, slept good enough. I don't know what else to say at this point really. Unprecedented times. Cash is King. Don't try to be a hero. Perhaps I'll listen to what I write here for a change.
Friday, October 03, 2008
OK, we finally got the bailout done. The market opened higher and closed lower for a one day negative reversal. The Dow was down 157 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. So now what? I certainly don't know. It is a volatile market and one that is unlike what we normally see. It isn't an easy trading environment. If I had any brain in my head, I would get flat and wait it out. Anything could happen. Gold lost another 10 bucks. The XAU gained a point after being much higher earlier. ABX and NEM had fractional gains after being much higher earlier. NEM was up over a buck. Volume was good. The GG calls are losers. However the Gold/XAU ratio is off the charts. That is the only thing keeping me in this trade at the moment. The buy signal is strong. So much so that I bought some more HL stock. Call me crazy but that's what I did. GE lost 60 cents on insanely heavy volume. Is GE going out of business? I sincerely doubt it. However is could be a sign of worse things to come. Mentally I'm tired and did not sleep as much as usual. It has been an intense week of market movement and it does take a toll. You begin to wonder if it's all worth it when it gets like this. There's always the sidelines I keep telling myself. I have the feeling that next week I'm going to listen. Perhaps. So on we go. What happens next week is anybodies guess. We sure didn't close on a positive note today. But it's all just a guess even more than usual at the moment. Yes, the weekend is upon us. A look at the charts. A time to regroup and come up with next weeks game plan. But most of all a time to rest considering the week that was.
Thursday, October 02, 2008
It was back to the downside today as the Dow lost 348 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 6 to 1 negative. Waiting on the bailout vote and who knows what happens after that? It is a crazy and volatile time. We are going back to test the lows I guess. But it is just that, a guess. Because these are some strange times indeed. Gold lost over $40 today and continue a touch lower in the aftermarket. The XAU was obliterated, down 20 yes 20 points in a day. ABX and GG both lost over $6 today. That's 20% of their value. Unheard of but there it is. NEM dropped 4 1/4. Volume was extremely heavy on the gold shares. Of course the GG calls are under water. However I bought some more. The Gold/XAU ratio is so out of whack that the buy signal is screaming. It probably wasn't the smartest thing to do. So we'll see. I can't believe the drop in the gold shares today but it happened. I don't know what it means. The dollar was stronger today but it's been up more than this and the gold shares haven't fallen apart like today. Again, it is a crazy time in the markets. GE lost 2 1/3 and the volume was astronomical. I mean it was 10 days volume compressed into one day. If it is a forerunner of things to come then we are going to collapse again. The volatility is off the charts. Mentally I feel pretty good, slept well. I don't know what else I can say here to fully grasp the uniqueness of the situation. It's unprecedented really. I now think that I should just listen to myself and get on the sidelines for a while. There is nothing wrong with that. Cash is King. It's not impossible to trade this kind of market but it isn't necessary either. When nothing makes sense perhaps it makes sense to do nothing.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
We spent the day bouncing around with the Dow closing down 20 points on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. Waiting for the Senate bailout vote tonight. The market is hostage to the bailout problem and it's a different type of trading atmosphere. No OEX trades for now. Gold was up $6 in the futures market but has sold off pretty good since. ABX and GG were both slightly higher after being up much higher earlier. NEM had a slight loss. Volume was good. The action in the gold shares today was negative for sure. The GG calls are barely profitable. The dollar was higher today. However, I believe we are at or near resistance for the dollar at theses levels. So we'll see. GE lost over a buck on insane volume. GE is issuing more common stock, never a good sign for the stock price. Warren Buffet said he would be investing in GE at this point. So it too bounced around but closed lower. I'm staying away from it for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired again, did not sleep as good as I could. So we go on to tomorrow still uncertain of what exactly is going on here. The sidelines aren't a bad place to be. Anything could happen at this point. There really are no clear technical signals and the volatility is extreme. Still plenty of time in the October option cycle. So we'll see what happens. Employment report on Friday if anybody cares.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Up and down as the roller coaster ride continues. A 485 point snap back on the Dow today with good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Now a deal is coming, supposedly. I'm sure one is, one way or another. What the market does is another issue. It's a tough trading environment to be sure. A lot of premium in the options and whipsaw moves. I'll have to wait on trying the OEX at this point. The risk is higher than usual at the moment. Gold was down $15 on the futures and continued to sell off in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 1 3/4. ABX and GG each lost a couple bucks on decent volume. NEM dropped 1/2. I bought some GG calls. Not completely oversold technically but I wanted to give it a go. I'm expecting the dollar to fall later this week when the employment report is released and the deal is done for the bailout. I could be wrong but that should support gold. The Gold/XAU ratio is still solidly in the buy zone. So we'll see. GE came back and was up around 2 3/4 on heavy volume. The options barely moved considering GE was up 10%. That is what is meant by an overload of premium in the options. If the underlying instrument moves 10% and the options barely move, that isn't the type of situation you want to get into. If and when things settle down, perhaps GE will be a viable play. Earnings out on October 10th there. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So what happens next? We will get this bailout deal out of the way and then it's back to earnings and data as market movers. The summation index is back in the negative but it's not going to stay there too long in my opinion. So I would guess we go sideways to higher in the coming months. However longer term I suspect we are still in a bear market. But it's all just a guess in the game. And as recent events have shown, anything can happen.
Monday, September 29, 2008
So we are in melt down mode as the Dow lost a record 777 points on what must be extremely heavy volume. Advance/declines were 15 to 1 negative. They rejected the bailout plan in Washington today. So it's the panic of 2008. It's not as bad as 1987 when we were down 22% in one day. We would have to drop 2000 points in a day to equal that. Trust me, the world is not coming to an end. Some type of plan will be enacted and the market will rally back. I'm not saying the the overall trend isn't down for a while. It is. For a couple years maybe. But that doesn't mean it's going to be straight down. How can you profit off of what is happening now is the question. Gold was up $5 on the futures and another 20 after the futures closed. The XAU lost 5 1/4 though. ABX continues to amaze with its relative strength, up 1 1/2 on very heavy volume and was higher than that. GG was flat on heavy volume and NEM lost 1 1/2. Volume heavy there as well. I still like the gold shares and have an order in for some GG calls overnight. However as soon as a bailout deal is done, money will leave gold in a hurry. So it's a tricky play. I have an idea of what I want to do so we'll see what happens. GE lost $2 on heavy volume. Not the crazy volume that we saw last week and that may be telling. I'm looking at the calls there, going out to November. There will be some type of snap back rally in GE between now and then. Timing will be key, as usual. But I think there will be money to be made there. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good, slept well enough. These are interesting times, no doubt about that. However the idea is to make money, so that is what must be concentrated on. There is risk galore, don't deny that. As I've said before there is nothing wrong with waiting things out on the sidelines until we get back to normal. Cash is King. This is a tough trading environment to be sure. However there is also opportunity if you can take advantage of it. Tomorrow should be interesting.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Opened lower and closed higher today for a one day bullish reversal in the Dow. We gained 121 points on OK volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative though. So we are still waiting for some kind of government bailout. It will get done it is just a matter of when. The market reaction to that will be telling. It looks like a rally would take place but that 's just a guess. Trying to trade it isn't the smartest thing to do. No decent signal for the OEX as yet. Gold rose around $6 today but the XAU dropped 3 points. ABX was up 1/2, GG lost a buck and NEM fell 1/2. Volume heavy there again. ABX continues to show incredible relative strength among the gold share issues. Perhaps that will have to be the next play. I'll be looking to buy weakness if there is any early next week in ABX or GG. GE was off 1/3 on average volume. Nothing doing there for now. Mentally I'm doing OK. Remained on the sidelines this week and that was the idea. Now next week I will be looking to do something. What that is exactly remains to be seen. The weekly gold share charts will not be looking bullish after this weeks action. So caution is advised. A lot of uncertainty out there on all fronts at the moment. We'll see what happens. Oil was lower today and the dollar a bit higher. Now what happens there after the bailout? A lot of questions but no answers for now. Nothing wrong with waiting it out really but you won't make any money. However you won't lose any either. The weekend is upon us and a break is in order.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
A bailout deal is close was the news today and the Dow rallied 196 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. So who knows what happens tomorrow. It's a crazy time in the game. We were up over 300. It is practically impossible to trade the OEX here with all the volatility. As I've said before the normal technicals just don't work. So it's the sidelines for now on the OEX. Gold lost $13 and the XAU fell 4 points today. ABX lost 1 3/4, GG off 2 and NEM dropped 1/2. Volume was pretty good again. I'm still trying to be patient there and todays action shows why. We are still overbought on the gold shares and I will try and wait until next week to get some calls. And even then it may not be the right play. So we'll see where the gold market goes from here. GE was up 3/4 on heavy volume. A lot of premium in the options there at the moment. I'm going to have to tread lightly for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Patience isn't easy but sometimes it must be done. I would like to let this first week of the option cycle pass and take it from there. So far so good on that count. I will probably wait and see how the market reacts to this bailout before taking any positions. I'm looking to get long the gold shares at some point here as I've said before. I haven't had a decent signal one way or the other in the OEX for quite some time. Eventually that will change. Until then I'll try and sit on my hands.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
The Dow lost 29 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. It was pretty much a sideways type of day. All eyes are on the Federal government and the passage of a bailout bill. Of course it's being held up while they talk about it for a while. But something will get passed and we'll have to wait and see the markets reaction to that. Gold was up a couple bucks today and the XAU gained 1/2. ABX and GG were up about a buck each and NEM lost 1/2. Volume was good but lighter than it has been. I'd still like to get some gold share calls again for October but there hasn't been a pullback. Oil was weaker and the dollar stronger but GG and ABX continued higher. I'll try and be patient. GE lost 1/3 on good volume. No trades there for now but I'm leaning towards the calls. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept a bit longer. So it's a waiting game for now. Not the easiest thing in the world to do but that's where I'm at. If we continue lower in the OEX it will set up a buy signal by Monday. The data releases are taking a back seat to the ongoing debate about the bailout. Interesting times indeed. Technically the market could go either way here. We'll see. The gold shares are overbought but haven't pulled back as of yet. Perhaps they won't. I'm keeping an eye on them. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Continuing lower with the Dow off 161 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Waiting for the bailout package from Congress at this point. Summation index lower. Can't really say what is going to happen with the market at this point. It's all a guess as we are in uncharted territory. Anything could happen. Gold lost $17 on the futures but is coming back in the aftermarket. The XAU dropped 4 1/2. ABX and GG lost 3/4, while NEM fell 1 1/2. All had heavy volume again. We're overbought here and I would like to give the gold shares some time before getting long again. The options are full of premium with the volatility and length of time remaining in the October cycle. So it's a sit and wait game for now. GE lost 1 1/3 on good volume but not the crazy kind of volume we saw last week. I'll need to check the chart there. Could be signalling the overall market heading lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Well I'm at the point where I'll have to be patient for the gold shares here. The dollar is oversold and was a bit higher today but it could have more to go on the upside, hopefully. Oil pulled back too. The stochastic on the gold shares is overbought, so I would expect some type of retreat. But in this type of environment, anything can happen. Plenty of time, so there's no rush but the entry is going to have to be correct. So we'll see what happens.
Monday, September 22, 2008
The roller coaster ride continues as the Dow lost 372 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The volatility to the extreme continues. Was the end of last week just an expiration related event? Do we now go down to new lows from here? Summation index will turn back to the downside with todays action. I don't have the answers. We are in an unprecedented era for the markets. Time will tell where this all ends up. It's a tough trading environment out there but there is money to be made. Risk is high though. There's nothing wrong with waiting until things return to some semblance of normal. Gold took off to the upside by over $40 today. ABX up 3, GG up 4 and NEM up 2 1/2, all on heavy volume. Incredible moves of over 10% in one day again. I am looking to get some gold share calls again if we get some type of pullback. I really don't want to chase it here. The dollar got pounded today and oil was up over 10% as well. I'm trying not to worry about selling out of my gold position early because it's done and over with. You always have to make adjustments and see things where they are now, not yesterday. There's still money to be made in gold in my opinion. GE lost 40 cents on lighter volume than we've seen lately. The premium in the options is off the charts with all the movement lately. I'll have to stay on the sidelines for now there. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. The game plan for now is getting some gold share calls again on any pullback. I'm trying to be patient but you never know. The XAU/Gold ratio is still way out of proportion. It's in the buy zone and has been for weeks. Either gold has to come way down or the XAU has to rise. Gold does not look like it is going to drop anytime soon with all that is going on in the world today. So I'll look to the gold shares for now.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Today the US government changed the rules. It will now bail out everything and everybody in the name of... Really, I don't know. The Dow rallied on extreme volume, up 368 points. Advance/declines were 7 to 1 positive. What a wild week. This should turn the summation index back to the upside. It is hard to trade the indices when things get like this. In fact, it's basically impossible. The volatility is too much. More luck than skill. Gold lost over $30 on the futures, rallied a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU was higher by over 7 points though. ABX up 2 3/4, GG up 1 and NEM up 2. All on good volume. ABX is showing the most relative strength here. I put in an order for some GG calls, was not filled. I may switch to ABX. However I'm waiting for some type of pullback in the gold shares now. GE was up almost 2 on insanely heavy volume again. Too late for the calls here. Mentally I'm tired. Did not sleep much last night. It's been quite a week. Yesterdays volatility in gold led me to get out but there is still more room to go on the upside there in my opinion. The weekly charts on the gold shares look like they have put in a bottom. The weekly OEX chart has put in a hammer bottom on the candlesticks. So the end of the world for the indices has been averted or postponed. It's time for a needed break from all the market madness. I'll be checking things over the weekend and getting ready for Monday. But for now some rest.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Volatile days are upon us. The Dow rose 410 points today on what I expect was extremely heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The market moved up a few hundred points in the last hour on the Treasury secretaries comments of another bailout. Bear market rally? My guess is that it was. A one day wonder until proven otherwise. Gold went crazy again, up $50 on the futures. However it began to sell off on the Treasury announcement. The XAU finished flat and the gold shares had one day reversals to the downside. ABX and GG were off on the day but the quotes are not reliable due to the volatility. Volume was the heaviest that I've ever seen it. NEM lost over 3 points. All the gold shares were higher early and closed much lower on the day. I dumped all my GG calls. Some had a 15% gain and the rest had an 85% gain. I was lucky to get out alive. That said I am looking to buy back the calls cheaper, perhaps even tomorrow. I don't think the rally in gold is over. GE was up 1 1/2 on insane volume again. I'm looking at the calls here on any type of pull back. It may be too late. Due to the volatility the options are very expensive. But I think getting long there will work. Mentally I'm tired and not feeling well. The markets don't care how you feel. It's been a crazy week so far and I suppose tomorrow will be no different. Expiration and we'll see what happens. I'll be checking things tonight but I think getting long gold again is the correct move at the moment.
Another decline today as the Dow lost 450 points on extremely heavy volume. It's a free fall. Advance/declines were over 12 to 1 negative at least. Summation index continuing lower. How low will the market go? Usually lower than you think. It looks like we will go down all the way into expiration at this point. You'd like to think there are some bargains out there but at the moment the world thinks every company is going under. They aren't but to tell where it all ends is impossible. Gold caught fire today as it finally became a flight to safety play. It rose $70 on the futures and continues higher in the aftermarket. The XAU rose over 10 points and is right at the daily down trend line. Another day like today and we will be through it which would be quite bullish. But it hasn't happened yet. ABX, GG and NEM all gained over 3 points on insane volume. It is a crazy time in the markets, I can't emphasize that enough. The GG calls have come all the way back from the dead and there is still over 4 weeks to go. However things can turn around and head back the other way overnight. That's what kind of game it has become. GE lost 1 1/2 on incredible volume. It's a panic sell for sure but you just don't know when it will stop. I would like to get some GE calls and am seriously looking at that as the next play. It's risky though but what isn't at this point? Mentally I'm tired again, did not sleep well. Really would like to get a good nights sleep. I've seen these kind of free falls in the overall market before. You don't want to get long too early. You also want to take the profits if you get any pretty quick. The volatility gets intense. As crazy as it sounds, it's kind of fun too. Well, at least it's not boring. We'll see about tomorrow.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Opened lower and closed higher for another one day reversal today. Not that it means anything in a market like this. The Dow was higher by 141 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. No follow through to the downside on a closing basis but these are crazy times. Fed stood pat on interest rates and the market rallied. Interest rates won't change the carnage that is happening at the moment. Things will change and be volatile day to day. I'm looking for weakness on Thursday but that is a guess. The sidelines are probably the best place to be at the moment. Risk is high. Gold lost around $6 but the XAU rose 2 1/2. The opposite action of yesterday. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1/2 and NEM up over a buck. Volume heavy again. The gold shares followed the overall market. Oil was down again and the dollar was stronger. Things just aren't following the normal patterns at the moment. Makes for tough trading. GG calls still in the red and probably not coming back. GE opened about $3 lower than where it closed. Amazing. It ended up 1/2 on insane volume again. I can't touch it at the moment in a market like this. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well again. Expiration week and volatility at an extreme. I think we'll head back down this week before any stabilization but who knows? Trading in this type of environment is extremely risky. There will be better times to take chances. Yes, the profits now could come quickly but so could the losses. The normal technical analysis doesn't work when we get like this. There is nothing wrong with waiting for a better trading situation.