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Monday, October 13, 2008

Finally a rally and a big one at that. The Dow had its best day ever, up 936 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 15 to 1. Dead cat bounce? No. We've seen the lows for this move down. We may have a retest but in my opinion it will hold and we've seen the worst for now. And it was pretty bad. But it's done. I do think that next year or later we will see lower lows but that is in the future. I'd say the final low will be in the fall of 2010. But that's way ahead of myself. For now I'd expect follow through tomorrow and then we'll head back down. But that's a guess. Gold lost another $15 today and the XAU rose 4 points. The gold shares were mixed with ABX off about 2, GG off 3/4 and NEM up 1 3/4. NEM has been the leader, so I would expect strength in the gold shares tomorrow. I dumped the remaining GG calls for the same 80% loss. It's time to move on. I did not recognize the extreme market conditions in time to do anything correct. If I did recognize them, I didn't react quickly enough. It was s series of dumb moves. I had chances to get out but did not. It's nobodies fault but mine. I'm still a longer term believer in gold here. The Gold/XAU ratio is still far out of whack. It will return to some sort of normalcy eventually. GE lost 1/2 on good volume. I don't know what to think about that. The market goes crazy upside and GE goes down? Not trades there. Mentally I'm still slow and not feeling up to par. I still have a cold and it is slow to move on. I am however finally flat and out of the market. My guess is that I'll stay that way until I'm feeling better. Finally some common sense. Costly though. It should be an interesting week but I'll have to watch from the sidelines.

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