Wednesday, August 31, 2005
We got the beginning of a rally today with the Dow up around 70 points. The volume expanded, which is a good sign and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We are heading higher. OEX calls can and should be purchased. They will run it up in the beginning of September. Gold was up over $3 and the XAU gained over 2 points. The volume wasn't that great but the price movement was in the right direction. I have some open GTC orders for NEM. Don't know if they will be filled, perhaps I have missed this move. We'll see. Markets are still coming to grips with the effects of hurricane Katrina. I really need to get it together and pay attention right now. There is money to be made. My mind has been slow since the last bad trade but that needs to be set aside and trading must begin anew. Mentally I've got to get it together now. Employment report on Friday. Gotta get long something I believe. Trying my best but need some sleep here too. Tough game and I've got to be ready for it.
Tuesday, August 30, 2005
I did not get here yesterday due to time constraints. It was an up day on light volume. Today we were down around 50 points but it was much lower earlier. Oil touched $70 a barrel. Advance/declines were negative but not so much so and the volume picked up a little. I think we need to get higher here. The beginning of September should be OK I think. We should have fell off a cliff today and we didn't. I think it is setting up for a rally. Gold got killed, down $7 today. But the XAU did not sell off much, a little over a dollar. I'm thinking there is nobody left to sell. I have an order in for some September NEM calls. We'll see. My plan is really to get some October gold calls at some point. But I could be wrong. Last week of summer so next week should start to get interesting. Employment report on Friday. Mentally I'm recovering from oral surgery and all is going well for now. I'm feeling better. Market-wise I need to focus again and cannot let outside influences interfere with my trading. Discipline must be adhered to. The next three months of trading will be key for the year. No more stupid mistakes. There is money to be made out there. I've gotta do what it takes to be successful. It's well worth it.
Friday, August 26, 2005
The Dow lost another 53 points today on light volume again. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. No rally and no bounce. It is not a positive time for the markets. No trades for now in the OEX. Gold was down over a dollar and the XAU was down a touch on light volume. Hard to get a gauge of where the markets are headed with the summer light volume here. Beginning of September could be key. I'd like to get long gold again next week. I'll have to see how it pans out. Mentally I'm not where I should be to make a serious play. I will get there though. Discipline must and will return now. It has to. Still kind of out of it after the oral surgery but that is no excuse. The weekend is here and I will rest up for next week and try to position myself before Fridays employment report. Gotta get it back together and get moving forward again.
Thursday, August 25, 2005
The Dow gained 15 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are still oversold and I'm expecting a bounce. But who knows? Gold didn't do much, up a tad. The XAU gained 3/4 of a point but the volume was weak. I had oral surgery today and am not feeling up to par. I will not trade during this time but I am looking. Not feeling ready to take on the game so I really shouldn't. Gold is looking interesting to me. Perhaps at least a bounce is due there also. But I've got to rest. So that's what I'll do.
Wednesday, August 24, 2005
The Dow lost about 85 points today and the volume picked up. Not exactly a good sign going forward. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 85 market would indicate. I'm looking for a bounce with this oversold condition. If we don't get one then there will be trouble. But I'm not looking for a crash. Near term support was broken and we'll see where the next support comes in. Gold was down 3 bucks and the XAU lost a couple points. Uptrend lines have been broken so everything there to the long side will be on hold. I think I'll look to go out to October. Don't know what to do now, still smarting over that last stupid trade. Gotta be patient though. I'll find another good one out there eventually. So it's the sidelines for now. Perhaps around Labor Day for the next move. Can't say for sure. Dentist tomorrow, perhaps a late post.
Tuesday, August 23, 2005
The Dow lost 50 points today on summer volume which wasn't much. Advance/declines were negative. No catalyst to go higher here but we are oversold. Might just be drift until Labor Day is over. Gold was up over a buck with the XAU down a tad. No volume there either as interest in anything just isn't there right now. I think there will be some opportunity but now doesn't seem the time. NEM is at support at $40. Will be interesting to see if it holds. I still want some calls there but must be patient for now. Not much else to say. Really in the summer doldrums. Mentally I don't feel as sharp as I can be but who knows. Just trying to take it easy here and wait for the next trade.
Monday, August 22, 2005
The Dow rose 10 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive and there was some volatility today. Not expecting much this week at the moment however we are right at support and the market just can't seem to make up it's mind where to go. Gold was little changed as was the XAU. I do want to try there again and maybe soon. Looking to get long. Nothing else on the horizon as the summer comes to a close in 2 weeks. Would like to do something right here for a change and will be keeping an eye on things. Mentally still hurting from the last poor trade but will try that much harder on the next one to right the ship. Can be done and the discipline for success must return now. Nothing else for today.
Friday, August 19, 2005
Dow up 4 points on positive advance/declines and light volume. Gold was down but the XAU did not move which could be a good sign. Uptrend lines still intact for the gold shares but gold itself has broken through the support at $440. Don't know what I'm going to do there. Short post today and the weekend is here. Will need to take a breather after this weeks fiasco.
Thursday, August 18, 2005
The Dow gained 4 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Looks like a nothing expiration with some chop at this point. Lackluster action and hard to make any money. Gold did nothing today and the XAU was down a touch. NEM was up and I could have gotten a better price today if I had waited. But what else is new? I had to bail out when I did and it was stupid. A panic sell to complete a horrible trade. Yes I'm still back there at yesterday, lamenting my ineptitude. Really no excuse for the way that trade went. Sold out at the low at the end of the day like an idiot. Could not really risk an overnight hold again. Was a day late in realizing that capital must be preserved. Idiot. Cannot allow gains to be turned into losses. How stupid is that? Do not know what else to say at this point. Looking towards September to get things right again. Really a blow to confidence and that is critical in the game. Gotta just forget it and move along but it won't be easy. Has to be done though or more bad trades will follow. I can't let that happen. I'll try and take some time off to get my head together but I can't promise anything. Lousy feeling. Don't want to repeat it...
Wednesday, August 17, 2005
A horrible day for me. The Dow ended up 37 points on negative advance/declines. Volume was average. Oil lost over 2 bucks and that gain was all the market could manage. Summation index still pointing down. The story for me was gold which got clobbered and lost over $6. Of course that killed my NEM options and I just had to bail out at the close with a loss. This after a substantial paper gain just 2 days ago. I blew it. I was greedy and stupid. I did not follow my own rules for success. I got what I deserved I guess. What happened? Greed. I should have had a stop-limit order in to protect some of the gains. For whatever reason, I did not. Why? Because I am an idiot. The signs were evident yesterday that this trade needed to be closed. I did not heed them even though I saw them. What sense does it make to pay attention when you don't even listen to what you hear? And what you see and what you know? Ridiculous. I am pissed and mad at myself for being so dumb. What a moron I was and am. How could I let myself do such a stupid thing? I am searching for answers. All the signs were there to get out and I just couldn't do it. Greed kills. Why was I so greedy? I don't know. I should have been happy that I was able to get this thing to triple. But no, that just wasn't enough for me. And to not have a stop-limit order in after a gain? What am I, an idiot? Apparently so. I really don't know where to go from here. I'm ashamed at myself for doing such a dumb thing and my confidence is shot. It will take some time to recover but I must. I've got to look deep inside and find some answers. It is hard to face the facts but this trade was totally mismanaged from the start. I had too much money in it. Bought the first bunch of options too soon. It just wasn't a smart move from the start. But to have such a huge gain evaporate before my eyes in a couple of days? It hurts to be so stupid. I need to find the reasons for my ignorance. Greed is one thing but to not follow the rules and listen to the market is another. I don't know what happened and I don't know where I go from here. Better just step aside and let things cool down before I do something stupid again. It really amazes me how dumb this whole deal was. If I can't have the discipline to heed the warnings when there are good profits to be had then I really don't now what I'm doing in this game. Pitiful. I really don't know what else to say. It's days like this that make me question why I am even in the game. You just gotta be good enough and sometimes you aren't. But trades like this will kill you. There is nobody to blame but myself. It's a lonely and pathetic feeling. I can't dwell on it forever but right now there is nothing else I can do or say. It's over but it will affect me for a while and I really can't let it. This is a bad feeling and I don't want to have it again. I haven't done anything as stupid as this in many years. I don't know why. The greed got me I guess. My mind is shot now and I don't know how long it will be before it comes back. Soon I hope but who knows? That's enough for today...
Tuesday, August 16, 2005
The Dow lost 120 points as volume picked up from yesterday. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. Oil didn't move but the inflation number was a touch higher. Getting oversold here but they might just keep it down into expiration. Looks like we are breaking some support here too. Gold gained back what it lost yesterday but the XAU could not rally. This is not a good sign. I am still holding the NEM calls and they are still showing a profit. But perhaps today was the day to sell them. We opened higher and closed lower and that too isn't good. Volume also increased to the downside. I'm thinking it has to get going tomorrow or I blew it. Had a nice profit and there is still a chance a good gain can be had. But we are near short term support here also and if it is taken out I'm gone. We'll see what happens tomorrow but it isn't as promising as I had hoped. Perhaps today got all the sellers out but I'm not so sure. Should have listened to the signals but something tells me they will still run it up into the expiration. We'll see.
Monday, August 15, 2005
The Dow gained 34 points on positive advance/declines. Volume was Monday light. Inflation data out in the next 2 days. Oil was a bit lower. No trades and there are 4 days left on the options. Summation index still pointing down I believe. Gonna hafta sit out on the OEX most likely. Gold lost almost 4 bucks and the XAU was down around a point. NEM lost ground as did all the gold shares but they came back in the last hour. Volume wasn't as strong as on the recent advance so I'm sticking with the thought that there will be some strength at some point this week into the expiration. I could be wrong. The NEM calls are still in the black and decidedly so. I'm looking at an exit above $42 if I can get it. We'll see. Out by Thursday at the latest perhaps sooner. I'm trying to do the right thing here but the game isn't easy. Mentally I'm doing fine and I've been getting enough rest also so all systems are go for a decent end to this trade. Tomorrow could be another down day and it wouldn't bother me unless the volume picks up. That's it for today.
Friday, August 12, 2005
Market down 85 points on light volume today. Advance/declines almost 2 to 1 negative. Thought the volume would have been more here with expiration week coming up but it could be one of those quiet ones. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU was up a bit. Overbought here for sure and the question of when and where to sell the NEM calls is forefront. I think we need a pause here for sure but then what? I'm thinking higher prices but how soon. With 5 days left the exit timing will be crucial to the profit on this trade. Volume confirms the move up but how long can it stay overbought? Even with a nice gain the work never stops. I will look at it closely over the weekend and develop some sort of gameplan for next week. I would like to relax a bit over the weekend though. No OEX trades for now as the market actually came back in the final hour before selling off again. So I'm not so sure there. Oil at another new high but when that starts to correct and sell off I think the market will take off to the upside. But for now a little rest is in order...
Thursday, August 11, 2005
The Dow rose over 90 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The overall market did not seem to be as strong. So I'm not believing this rally for now. Might possibly look for a short here. Oil got above $66. Gold soared over $8 and I don't know why. However it confirms that the breakout was valid. The XAU was up about $4. NEM rose over a dollar on heavy volume. It is for real. All my NEM calls are profitable. Now must decide when to get out and where to place the stop-loss order. It never gets any easier. We are about overbought on the RSI indicator but the stochastic has further to go. Weekly allows for more room also. NEM barely through the weekly downtrend line. The XAU broke through earlier so I have to figure NEM will too. 6 days to go on these options. I'm thinking we can get to $42.50 but I'm certainly not sure of it. Trade number tomorrow and after a day like this it won't matter much. I'll expect some profit taking. I'm also thinking gold is signaling inflation that has yet to appear. We'll see. My mind has many things on it but I've got to focus on this trade for now and forget about everything else for now. I should be able to do that, I hope. The game is never concise and exact. You've just got to do the best you can and be happy with that. Don't shortchange yourself or second-guess things. Just give it your best shot and see what happens. Tomorrow looms...
Wednesday, August 10, 2005
The Dow was up over 100 points today but couldn't hold it and ended down 20 points. A one day reversal on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. Interesting as oil touched $65 a barrel. Gold was up a little and the XAU rose over a point. The NEM calls are now showing a profit but I am very concerned about this trade. The volume was OK but not all the gold stocks rose with good volume. NEM did and that's a positive but... The trade number is on Friday. That I suppose will make or break this trade. NEM has an overhead downtrend line that comes in at $41 and that will be key if we get a rally. I am worried though and have to make some decisions about where to go from here. Of course looking back, it would have been nice to purchase some OEX puts this morning but I didn't. I was too busy watching the XAU. The summation sell signal is a valid one. Pay attention. Might still get a chance to get some puts for a play next week. Or perhaps we are just in a sideways pattern for the market. Tomorrow should be a nothing day for gold as we wait for Friday. I'll be hanging on...
Tuesday, August 09, 2005
The Dow rose 79 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 75 market would indicate. I think the trend is down and a signal has been given by the summation index. OEX puts can be bought on any more strength I believe. Gold did not move and neither did the XAU. The calls for NEM are hanging in there but any adverse move tomorrow and they're done. Not sure where that is going now but I'm still gonna go with the breakout scenario. A better idea might be to scale out of this on any upmove to protect capital. Hard to say. Fed rose another quarter point and the statement was the same old thing. Next news is on Friday with the trade number. I have no clue as to what that will be. Mentally doing OK. I'd really like to do well here but the market rarely cooperates with what one wants. I'm getting back into the reality of the game and that is good. I'm keeping up with the work that needs to be done. Tomorrow perhaps is the key, we shall see...
Monday, August 08, 2005
This lame site never posted my Friday blog. I bought some more NEM calls on Friday as it fell again. Not sure if that was such a great idea. Today the Dow lost over 20 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The Fed meets tomorrow and that should be interesting. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU fell about a point. NEM was down and this is getting the feel of a loser. I am also over-leveraged to compound the situation. Anything can happen but it looks like maybe the breakout won't work. It had a the right factors going for it though. But so did the last trade that didn't work. That is just what makes this the most frustrating and difficult thing to do. I suppose I can look to cut the loss here now. Perhaps tomorrows Fed will bring some support to gold but who knows? Maybe I should just take the rest of the summer off. I don't think NEM will be coming back at this point. We'll see.
Friday, August 05, 2005
The Dow lost over 50 points on OK volume. The overall market fared much worse. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is flashing a sell signal as it is now solidly pointing down. Gold was little moved and the XAU lost about a point. I purchased more NEM calls on this pullback. I may have bought too many but I am a believer in the breakout. The volume supports it. But you never know for sure and I will be keeping a close eye on it. 2 weeks to go. The calls purchased today stayed unchanged but the previous purchase is showing a loss. I'll check things over the weekend and get back at it on monday. Mentally I'm doing fine and regaining the lost focus of the past few months. Discipline must return to be successful in the game. I really need to do my homework and concentrate on this trade for now. It just has to be done. But for now it's time for the weekend break...
Thursday, August 04, 2005
The Dow lost 87 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The summation index should be turning down here. Employment report tomorrow. No OEX trades for now. I did pick up some NEM calls as it fell back today. Don't know if this is the smartest thing to do but it appears to be a breakout. I have an order for some more if it falls again tomorrow. Gold was up a bit today. It seems to be overbought but perhaps will stay there as happens in good upmoves. But it could be wrong also. The trade is already underwater. We'll see what happens. I am tired and really need to get back to focus. I think this trade will be OK before expiration, which is in 2 weeks. Risky, yes. I'll have to be quick to take a profit. Easier said than done sometimes. Tomorrow I'd like to see NEM come back on good volume. But that's a hope and not reality. The XAU has broken out though and so has gold. NEM should follow and that is the basis for this trade. More tomorrow...
Wednesday, August 03, 2005
The Dow gained another 13 points today and the volume was good. Advance/declines were negative though. The real action was in gold. Gold was up another 3 bucks but the XAU soared almost 4 points. An unheard of move considering it has been just hanging around for days. Needless to say I have missed out. NEM was up over 2 bucks on very heavy volume. It's a breakout. I have an order in to buy some NEM August calls. Doubt it will get filled but I'm a believer in this move. I will try and get long now for August. I am extremely disappointed that I did not get some calls sooner. But I cannot afford to sit here and beat myself up over it. I will try and make some money off this move if I can. I have had extreme computer problems lately and that is contributing to my overall lack of discipline. Perhaps this wasn't the best time to upgrade. I have been more stressed out here than any other time this year. It isn't a good thing. Plus I've been lazy on paying attention which I normally would not do. I haven't been getting enough rest either. I know what it takes to be successful and I need to get back to that or this won't work. No excuses mind you but this hasn't been the best of times for me. The business has got to be run efficiently on a day to day, week to week basis. Anything less is unacceptable. That said, I will go from here and make the best of it. I will get this computer thing straightened out and refocus my efforts. It's gotta be done...
Tuesday, August 02, 2005
Dow up 60 on good volume. Advance/declines 2 to 1 positive. It all looks good but we are getting some divergences in the McClellan oscillator. The new highs also have not taken out the previous number. I'm patiently waiting for a signal. Gold didn't move today but the XAU finally came to life, up over a point. ABX up on good volume and I think that will be the next play if it allows me to do it. We shall see. Just got back from a hike and that will be all for today.
Monday, August 01, 2005
The Dow lost 17 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive though. The Naz and the S&P were both higher. Leaning towards higher prices with this kind of action. Gold tacked on another couple of bucks but the XAU did not budge. It's been like that for days. Volume was light again as there seems to be no interest in the gold shares. GE was weaker again. I'm still on the sidelines and will be for the near term. Still waiting for a good signal from somewhere. Mentally just not there yet and that has to change.