Thursday, June 30, 2005
The Dow lost 100 points on increased volume. Not a good sign. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 100 market would indicate. But you can't argue with the price action. Fed raised another 1/4 point. Might be end of quarter profit taking. We'll see tomorrow. Things should slow down for the next 2 trading sessions due to the July 4th holiday. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU lost a point and a half. NEM and ABX got clocked and the NEM calls lost most of their profit. Bearish candlestick pattern now on these charts and I will have to make a decision tomorrow depending on the price action. Yesterday could have been the last blow-off gasp to the upside for these issues. Don't know but it is possible so that scenario must be counted. Weekly charts are about overbought so that's another factor. I'll decide tomorrow I guess. Always easy to look back but let's not waste time with that. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good. I've come to grips with what has happened to me lately and that's a good thing. Gotta use my head on this one and not be such a drama queen. I'll try and make it work but if it doesn't I'll be thankful for the opportunity. I can only control my own thoughts and that is what I'm going to do. Try at least but now I actually think I can do it. The first half of the year is over and although I made many mistakes and had to deal with some major mental stuff, I did pretty good. I did miss some great opportunities and I'll try to do better in the second half on that. More tomorrow...
Wednesday, June 29, 2005
The Dow lost about 30 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive though. This implies higher prices in the days ahead. The Fed announcement is tomorrow and the end of the quarter. Could get interesting. Gold did not do much today but the XAU rallied strongly, up over 3 points. We are at a major downtrend line and if we somehow get through it there will be higher prices ahead. NEM was up over a point and so was ABX. The calls I bought yesterday are in the black. However the move in ABX is much higher percentage-wise and those options are doing really well. ABX did show better relative strength but I did not expect it to move like it did today. The volume was heavy also, telling me that it's for real. NEM volume was not all that impressive. And so it goes. ABX is very overbought here. NEM is not as blown-out on the technicals. If I had any guts or brains I would have bought some of each as I originally did a week or so ago. But there are no guarantees in this game. Crazy as it is. Guess I'll just wait for tomorrow and mull over where to put the sell-stop. Mentally I'm doing better as I suppose I will just let things go where they will and not press the issue as I thought I might yesterday. That seems to be a prudent course of action at this time. That too, could all change on a moments notice. I'll try and relax tonight and when tomorrow is over there will be a long weekend to look forward to.
Tuesday, June 28, 2005
Got the bounce today with the Dow up 115 points on OK volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Now it's a waiting game for the Fed on Thursday. Is this the beginning of another leg up? Time will tell. Oil get clobbered today and that was a good enough reason for a rally. Gold was down over 3 bucks today. The XAU sold off about a point. I bought some July NEM calls. NEM got down to the trend line and the price was what I wanted to pay. We'll see if it holds up here. Not sure as the technicals remain overbought. ABX seems to have better relative strength here but the options were expensive. So we'll see how this trade goes. Tomorrow could be the end of it already if the trend line doesn't hold. Back to the overall market, OEX calls could have been bought yesterday and sold for a profit today but it wasn't much. Just a few hundred dollars. In retrospect perhaps I should have scalped it but I didn't. It is always easy to look back but that was a nice set-up. Mentally I'm just slugging through it. Feeling better but still uneasy as how I will handle what's going on. Perhaps no action would be the best plan at this time but I would really like to get some answers and move on one way or the other. We'll see.
Monday, June 27, 2005
The Dow lost 7 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. Really expecting a bounce here but for how long I don't know. Summation index pointing down but we are oversold on a short term basis. Gold itself lost a little ground today. The XAU was down a point. I'm still looking to get long here but I'm not exactly sure it will work as much as I thought last week. I'm going to give it a go anyway. I'll look at NEM at $38.50 which is about 75 cents away. Could be tomorrow. However the technicals are overbought and that makes me wary. Tough call but the previous volume pattern implies higher prices. We'll see. Back to the overall market I would like to get some OEX calls for a short term play but the risk/reward doesn't seem to warrant it. It's hard to stay on the sidelines sometimes and this is one of those times. Fed meeting this week and an announcement on Thursday. That comes into play also. So it never gets any easier in the game as the questions continue with no solid answers. Mentally I'm getting it together slowly be surely. I suppose what I need to do is see things as they are and not as I would like them to be. It's not really what I want to do though. But it's got to be done. It will clear things up so I can devote my mind to what needs to be done here. Choices have to be made. I can only control what I'm doing. This game is tough enough as it is. I don't need the mental baggage that I'm carrying right now. What can I say? It has got to be dealt with before it gets any worse. Perhaps this week will be it. It's up to me I guess but that doesn't make it easy.
Friday, June 24, 2005
Down another 123 points on the Dow today on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. I don't really know what is going on here but the breadth hasn't supported a move down like this. We are oversold here also on a short term basis. But the summation index is rolling over and that is a worry. I'm on the sidelines. Gold was down a couple bucks today but the XAU was higher. The volume wasn't all that great but there seems to be no sellers. I really want to get long here but am not sure about the technicals at this point. We remain in overbought territory. I will probably do something next week but you never know. Gold has been in a disconnect so there is nothing to cue off of at the moment. On the sidelines here also. I have nothing else on the radar screen right now. Mentally I'm just taking it day to day as my mind again is wandering off to la la land. I am trying to get a handle on it but it seems like it is impossible. I did not expect something like this to happen so I am having trouble dealing with it. It is very important to get this straightened out one way or the other. I have to be honest with myself. It is affecting my trading. I cannot run away from it, it's always there. It has got to be dealt with and sooner rather than later. What can I say? Emotions are part of the game. They have to be handled effectively. But this is something that really has me questioning a lot of things. My feelings really need to be addressed. How to go about that is a question with no answer right now. I'm working on it.
Thursday, June 23, 2005
Well, I guess I was wrong about the market wanting to go higher. We lost over 165 points today on good volume. Oil at $60 was supposedly the culprit. Advance/declines were only 2 to 1 negative though. So I don't think it's the beginning of the end but who knows. It might be enough to turn the summation index lower. Gold was up 4 dollars at one point. The XAU opened higher and was up 2 points at one point also. But it too sold off and was only up half a point. I canceled my NEM calls and now have no open orders. I'm still a believer that the gold shares will go higher and I'm waiting for an entry point. Probably will put it off until next week after I check things this weekend. But we'll see what tomorrow brings. The end of the month is coming up next week also and that should influence money flows. How? I don't know. As for the market, I think we will hit oversold rapidly and the decline won't last long. That's another guess too. Mentally I'm feeling good and am ready to do what has to be done to make the next trade a good one. We'll see.
Wednesday, June 22, 2005
The Dow lost about 12 points today in listless trading. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. It's a going nowhere market at this point. I'm staying on the sidelines as far as the OEX goes. Gold was down a touch but really isn't doing anything either. The XAU was down half a point. I've got an order in for some NEM calls but it is not close to being filled. Volume was light there also. I'm not really looking at anything else. Plenty of time on the options so there is not rush. Would like to see NEM trade sideways to down and then get filled. But that's a dreamers world. I'll keep an eye on it and do what has to be done. I'm a bit tired today but still focused on what has to be done. My mind is not in the way at the moment.
Tuesday, June 21, 2005
The Dow lost about 10 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. Not doing much here as the doldrums seem to have begun early. But it is the first day of summer. Gold sold off overnight and then came back during the day. The XAU sold off early also and then ended up positive. I placed some orders for July gold calls for NEM and ABX. GTC orders and I think I'll cancel the ABX because the chart looks better for NEM. Obviously they were not filled yet. I want to be careful and not over-leverage this position because you never know. As good as the charts look, in this game anything can happen. But for some reason gold seems to be strong here and holding up well. I think it, like the overall market, wants to go higher. Mentally I'm feeling good. Nothing clogging up my brain for now and the necessary focus is back. I think I'll be OK. You've got to remember, it takes a lot to be successful in the game. You can't put forth a less than best effort. The competition is fierce. There are no free rides. Success requires so much more than most people know. That's why there are so few who can actually do it I guess. I'm trying my best to do the right things. It isn't easy. Almost time for a mid-year review.
Monday, June 20, 2005
The Dow lost 12 points on average volume today. Advance/declines were negative. I was away for most of the trading day today. Options have just expired so I was able to get away. Gold did not move today but the XAU lost a point and a half. I am going to look to get long gold again. There is a gap to fill within the next 2 points on the XAU and I will get long there when that happens. And if it happens. There are head and shoulders bottoms on some of the gold shares that I follow. The volume patterns are consistent with that. We have disconnected with the dollar. I will determine the measuring objectives tonight and place the orders accordingly. I truly believe that these trades will be successful. 4 weeks and counting. I'd like to see a pullback in the metal itself for it too is overbought. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. I can only control things that have to do with me. Other people will do what they do. How I react to situations is the key. There really isn't much I can do about how other people think. My mind is back on track for trading. Perhaps the latest winning trade has something to do with that. But I can't beat myself up over things that I cannot control. My mind got lost for a little while and I was surprised when I had those feelings again. It had been such a long time, I really wasn't prepared or expecting anything like that. But I guess it's over now. I will say today I realized how lucky I am to be able to successfully trade out of my living room instead of going to a job that I despise or have to work hard at. I am very thankful and fortunate to have the ability that I have. I work hard at what I do but to be able to do it is truly amazing. Again I am thankful for what I've got.
Friday, June 17, 2005
The Dow was up about 45 points today on heavy expiration volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We continue higher as expected but I wouldn't be surprised at a pullback now that the options have expired. We are overbought and may have a divergence on the McClellan oscillator. Gold was up another 2 bucks today and the XAU gained half a point. NEM made up another 30 cents or so. I did leave some money on the table but I did not think the overnight risk with one day left warranted holding on to it. It was a tough call but I think I did the right thing and would probably do the same thing again given similar circumstances. But for some reason I am never satisfied with the results unless they are perfect, which they never are. I am always trying to get better at the game. That's the way I am. I'm not going to beat myself up over this trade but... Could and should I have put more money into it? Yes, with proper risk safety nets. At the time of the beginning of the trade, I was just trying to get focused back into the game. Having just missed a couple of great opportunities the month before, I was just trying to take advantage of a perceived idea. My mixed up emotional state that had been hindering me for the previous months was beginning to fade. I was getting a better grip on that. But it hasn't completely gone away. I'm working on it. Perhaps I'll have more to say about that over the weekend.
Thursday, June 16, 2005
The Dow was up 12 points on average volume as we make our way to Friday of expiration week. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive though. I'm still thinking upside here but no trades for now. The story today was gold as it broke out to the upside as I had hoped and was up $7. The XAU tacked on 3 points and NEM was up over a dollar on good volume. I sold my calls near the end of the day. I was waiting around trying to squeeze as much as I could from this trade and then just got the hell out. It isn't worth it for the last nickel or dime. But I always try and get the most I can out of my trades. It's the only way that I know how. There is still tomorrow but I wanted to get out because you really never know what can happen. Yeah we could be up some more tomorrow but I'll take what I got. Of course I wish that I had put more into this trade but that is always the case when they are winners. The profit was around 740%. The timing getting in was excellent as I can usually do that right. Getting out? We'll see what happens tomorrow. I will now wait for a pullback, hopefully, and look to get long again. There appear to be head and shoulders bottoms on all the gold shares and we have just broken out on good volume. I'm a believer here. We have also disconnected with the dollar which I'm sure has thrown some people off. So I will look for more profits in gold ahead, as the weekly charts are not overbought yet. I am pleased to have done well here but I was very close to getting stopped out yesterday near the end. It would have still been a money maker but not nearly as much as holding on was. Do not place the stop too close should be the lesson here. However you always want to protect profits before they become losses. Not an easy game, never is.
Wednesday, June 15, 2005
The Dow was up 20 points on better volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were down early and came back. Still in a tight range and we will break out one way or the other. Still leaning to the upside. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU gained back what it lost yesterday. NEM was a bit higher on lighter volume. I probably should have sold out today. But there is a chance we will breakout right here so I placed a stop-loss order and left it at that. The XAU gapped up and then hung around. This trade will be profitable unless we gap down tomorrow, which is possible but I'm not thinking it will happen. Or we could gap up again and through the resistance. Or nothing will happen and I'll get stopped out at a profit. At least I had the brains to put in the stop-loss order. There are only 2 days left. Hectic but this is where the money is made sometimes. And lost. Could have maybe got some OEX calls but the risk is even more than this NEM trade. I'm out tomorrow, one way or the other.
Tuesday, June 14, 2005
The Dow gained 25 points today on light volume again. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The inflation data was good but we didn't get much of a rally. I still want to believe in the OEX calls here but with 3 days left it ain't gonna happen. The Bollinger bands are contracting on the chart so some will happen here soon. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU suffered, losing a point and a third. NEM was lower by a half on lighter volume than the preceding rally. My calls got clobbered, losing half their value. Ouch. I'm still a believer here too for higher prices but now I'm not so sure. The disconnect with the dollar doesn't give me anything to cue off of except the price action. And time is running out. We also have been pushed back by a downtrend line on the metal itself and I'm not sure we will get through it this week. If we did it would be wonderful for the calls. But that's a big if and I can't go by that. It could be that this is all there is. I'm trying not to get greedy and the technicals for the XAU and NEM are overbought. I had better use some common sense. However a down open tomorrow spells trouble. This is were we find out what kind of trader it takes to be successful. My thoughts now are that a stop-loss order should have been in place as is the rule. But for some reason I didn't do it before the close yesterday. So whatever I get I deserve. Mistakes are costly and greed is terrible. There are no excuses. It really gets dicey when the time is short. But it is what it is. We'll see what tomorrow brings...
Monday, June 13, 2005
The Dow was up about 10 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were much higher early on and then fell back as the price of oil rallied 2 bucks. I am not sure of what the direction will be for the expiration week but it doesn't look very dramatic at the moment. Of course that could all change. Inflation data out tomorrow and Wednesday. Gold was up another couple of bucks today and the XAU rallied 3/4 of a point on good volume. NEM was up almost 50 cents. Now is when it gets interesting. It looks like NEM wants to take a rest here along with the gold shares. But the volume has been so good, it is hard to want to exit this position right now. However there are only 4 days left on these options. Decisions must be made and hopefully the right ones. I'm leaning towards holding on until later in the week unless the technicals really deteriorate. But by then it could be too late. This is what makes the game so tough. Gold has also decoupled from the dollar so I really don't know what is pushing it higher here. But I do know the volume has come in so I'm thinking this is for real. There are also possible head and shoulder bottoms on the gold shares, including NEM that look intriguing. We are right at the necklines. We'll see.
Friday, June 10, 2005
The Dow ended up about 10 points on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. We were down for most of the day and then came back near the end. I did not get any OEX options. There isn't a clear signal yet. Might not get one before expiration. The trade number came out, it was about in line with expectations. Gold didn't do much early and the XAU was off a bit. However gold rallied a couple of bucks after that and the XAU took off. Up over 3 points. The gold shares moved higher on good volume. I guess it was a doji on the candlestick chart after all. NEM was up over a buck and the calls I bought yesterday have tripled. The entry timing was excellent this time out. I can't get too excited though because there is a week left and the exit must be timed good as well. It will be a moneymaker unless there is something dramatic over the weekend. There is talk of China floating their currency. That would most likely be positive for gold though. Not sure, don't know and will be checking the technicals over the weekend. The dollar was higher and that is something that has changed with relationship to gold. Can't figure it out but will try and follow the money. Still trying to get back the focus that has been successful for me in the past. Not an easy thing to do. I will try and relax over the weekend and get back to work here on Monday. It pays to be patient and pay attention. Not easy but it works...
Thursday, June 09, 2005
The Dow rose 25 points today on good volume of late. Advance/declines were positive. Very choppy action this week. Looking for something to break one way or the other. I still think the bias is to the upside. Trade number tomorrow. I bought some June NEM calls today. Looking for a play on the number tomorrow. Sort term oversold and we'll just have to wait and see. Not a lot of money in this one but a positive result is needed to get back on track. Tomorrow will be the key. I don't know how long that I'd like to hold this. Will bail out at 50% loss or so. The XAU opened lower and closed higher which might bode well for tomorrow. Looks like a possible doji on the candlestick chart also. None of it matters if tomorrow is down though. I don't usually do the short term stuff but I need to do something. Got the price I wanted for the calls and that's a plus. I need to get my mind right and it's not going well today. Really need to face up to what is going on and deal with it. The mental game has got to be solid and right now it's not. It really came out of nowhere and if it works out than all will be fine but if it doesn't then there will be trouble for a while. I've got to do something about it though because I really can't go on like this. I'm really not sure how to go about it but will give it my best shot and hope for good things. It's all I can do.
Wednesday, June 08, 2005
The Dow lost 6 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. It seems like we are in a drift. I would like to try something before expiration though. Greenspan tomorrow and then the trade number. Gold was up a touch today. The XAU opened higher and was up over a point early but the volume was light. It ended up down a quarter as there really was no interest. I'm thinking of getting some calls before the trade number but I am really not sure it will work. If I do it, it won't be a lot of money. That is for sure. GE was higher and then got weaker also. I'm staying away. We are at a point here where I think which ever way it moves near term will not hold and there will be a reversal before expiration. That is the feel I get from the indicators. I could be wrong and perhaps the prudent thing to do will be to stay out. I can't force it and there is no reason to. Discipline and patience have their rewards sometimes also. Anyway we'll see what happens tomorrow and if I do anything here.
Tuesday, June 07, 2005
Did not get back here on Monday as I was playing golf. The market didn't do much and the Dow was up around 5 points. Summertime already? Not quite. Today the Dow gained a little over 15 points but was up over 100 at one point. Advance/declines were positive as they were yesterday. Volume perked up a little today compared to recent activity. Todays action suggests a pullback is at hand. It wasn't good to see the gains diminish. Perhaps this will give me a shot at getting some calls before expiration. We will have to see how it sets up. I haven't gotten any real good signals lately. Perhaps that is about to change. Gold shares have begun to fall back again on good volume. I will look at the ABX July calls again and buy some if the price is right. The dollar rally seems to have stalled here but the dynamics of the dollar and gold have changed recently so I need to be careful. Almost bought some GE calls again but have held off until now. The weekly chart on GE doesn't suggest a lot of upside here. I'm trying to be patient. I do not want to get caught in some chop, as the market just may end up spinning its wheels here. Greenspan is speaking on Thursday night, just ahead of the trade number. So things are about to get interesting. Whether or not I have what it takes to take advantage of it is another story. Mentally I'm fine and back where I need to be. Nothing has been resolved as of yet but I am learning how to deal with what's going on and I feel everything will work out for the best. I am trying to remember that the market has to be in focus and just because things are happening outside of here doesn't mean I can't keep up with my work. Perhaps I am using outside influences as an excuse for why I have missed the latest opportunities. That is possible. I realize that the discipline and commitment required to be successful is necessary and I am trying my best to keep it. That doesn't mean that there won't be times when I stray from what's needed. But I must pay attention and keep at it. The work doesn't stop, the markets don't wait and if you want to be in the game you had better grow up fast. I'm learning...
Friday, June 03, 2005
The Dow lost over 90 points today on light volume. I suppose that could be considered the move from the McClellan oscillator. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 90 market would indicate. I'm still going to look to get long here somewhere. I did place an order for GE calls but canceled it when it wasn't filled. I do not think that I will do that trade. The XAU was up a bit and so was gold. But so was the dollar for that matter as these markets have changed their relationship with each other. Why? I don't know. Perhaps the selling in gold has ceased for now with no talk of hedge fund problems. It's just a guess. I think my next trade will be in the OEX as I will look to get some 570 calls. The uptrend remains intact from what I can tell so that will be the play. I am still looking to go out to July on the ABX calls. The weekend has arrived and I'll check the charts and go over the numbers. I really haven't seen any good set-ups lately. Sometimes you've just got to be patient. I almost made a dumb trade today. But I didn't. I would like to do something before the June expiration but I will not force the issue if possible. Perhaps the sidelines is the best place for me at the moment.
Thursday, June 02, 2005
I was away today and did not see the daily action. The Dow was flat but the S&P rose a couple points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was OK. There should be a big move in one of the next 2 sessions. The McClellan oscillator was unchanged and that usually portends a good move one way or the other. The technicals of today suggest an upmove but there are no guarantees. Gold had an interesting day with the metal itself up 7 dollars while the XAU was down. That usually isn't a good sign for the gold shares but we'll have to wait and see. I will be looking to take a July position in ABX if the price gets down to where I think it will work. I do not have any OEX trades planned for right now. The employment report is due tomorrow and I will take it from there. The trend is up. Mentally I seem to be on my way back. My mind is clearing up and I now realize that I just have to get on with it. There is nothing else I can do. Moving forward is imperative to successful trading and really that's what it's all about. While my thoughts haven't been focused lately, it is time to get back into it. Forgetting missed opportunities would help. And whatever other pipedreams I had in my mind have got to go. Things just won't be as easy as my brain pretended that they would be. It was foolish on my part to waste my time thinking like that. It definitely cost me a couple of really good trades. I just don't know what I was thinking. That hasn't happened to me like that before. Just gotta move on and forget about it. Daydreams are a waste of time sometimes. Lack of discipline could be one of the causes. I need to work on it. It isn't something that happens overnight. I had it before but it just slips away sometimes when the mind wanders. Not much else to say about that. The market is no place for fantasy.
Wednesday, June 01, 2005
Dow up 80 points on decent volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The trend is up, we're going up, that's it. Nothing more to say. Try and get long on weakness. Gold didn't move much but the XAU was up good again. Same story there. Heading up, going up and that's it. I don't know why. Perhaps the strength in the dollar is leading to money pouring into dollar denominated assets. That's my guess. But price action tells the story. The summation index is heading up and the market will follow that. I'm sorry that I am not taking advantage of this move the way I would have liked but these aren't normal times for me mentally so I'll just do the best that I can. I can do nothing more. Employment report on Friday. I have a meeting tomorrow that will last all day and I will not be following the markets as normal. It is a rare occurrence. But since I have no open positions so it won't really affect me. That's it for today.