Monday, June 30, 2008
End of the month and a bounce was due. The Dow ended up 3 points. That isn't much. Volume was heavy again and the advance/declines were negative. That doesn't bode well going forward. But we'll see. We did try to rally but it failed once again. I've been expecting one of those 2 to 3 hundred point short covering up days. It isn't happening. It could get even uglier here. I hope I'm wrong about that. The gold futures were off 4 bucks. The XAU rose 3/4 after selling off during the day. ABX was up 1/2, while GG and NEM had fractional losses. All had heavy volume. The dollar was a bit higher today. I'd still look to get some gold share calls on a pull back to the breakout point if that happens. But I'm afraid that trade was missed. I still have the GE calls that I played for the bounce that hasn't happened. GE was up around 40 cents on good volume. It still a long way from where I need it to go. Earnings out July 11th and perhaps I'll be stuck until then. Hopefully not. Mentally I'm doing what I can really. Need to see the dentist and that should happen tomorrow. Troubling here that the market can't get anything going to the upside. Really need to get higher here, lower oil would help. But the market will go where it wants. We'll see where it goes tomorrow.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Down another 105 points today as the carnage on Wall Street continues. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was heavy again. We are as oversold as it gets. The market will go where it wants but even in the worst of market times, it bounces from here. So I'll have to say we'll have a pretty good up move in the beginning of next week. But that doesn't change the fact that the market has dropped pretty good and longer term there is no end in sight. Presidential election years aren't normally like this. But I suppose that these aren't normal times. Gold was up another 15 bucks and the XAU rose 6 1/2 points. ABX, GG were up 2 and NEM up a half on heavy volume. An incredible break out to the upside and I'm an idiot for not jumping on. I really don't know what else to say there. My trading has taken a turn for the worse since the beginning of the 2nd quarter. I'm stuck in GE now which lost another 1/4 on heavy volume. I'm going to have to cut the loss there as my timing and my thinking were way off. It's beyond frustrating but at least there isn't much money in that dumb trade. It still doesn't change the fact that I missed what I wanted and then took on some stupid trade instead. Mentally I'm spent. Slept well but now I have teeth issues and my dentist is out until Tuesday. So in addition to coping with the markets, my mouth is messed up. Missing opportunities really gets me worked up. I will need to make adjustments. Of course I could not have predicted the move in gold would be so dramatic and so rapid. However I should have reacted to the facts better. Even so, I think there will be a chance to still make some money there in July but the prime opportune time has passed. I'm going to try and just relax this weekend. Of course I'll check the charts but I really need to take a break. I'll try to get to the dentist on Tuesday and go from there. Short week next week with July 4th on Friday. For now it's licking my wounds and trying to forget about the markets for a while.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
We fell apart today as the Dow lost 355 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative. We are as oversold as it gets. The market moves on its own merits, the data today didn't matter. I think we are going to get a very big bounce within the next 2 days so I bought some GE calls for a scalp. Hopefully GE goes along for the ride. I don't think it will be the beginning of an uptrend but I believe it's an opportunity. I could be wrong. Gold soared today, up over $30. Of course I'm kicking myself for not owning some gold share calls but we are breaking out here and you can buy the pullbacks. Could get one next week. ABX and GG gained 2 1/2 on great volume. NEM up 1 3/4 on good volume too. Almost just went ahead and bought some calls there today but I'll wait for the first move back. Oil surged and the dollar was weaker. My weak dollar scenario seems to be working at the moment and that is leading to help the decline in the overall market I think. GE lost a buck forty on heavy volume. I didn't put a lot of money in this trade. The calls are off a bit from when I got them today. I'll be out by Tuesday if my brain is working. Perhaps even tomorrow. Mentally I'm a bit tired. Was up early today and did not get the usual amount of sleep. These are interesting times to be sure. The Dow seems to be leading everything else lower. One thing is certain. We got a high volume breakout to the upside in gold. It should last for the July option cycle. There is still time to make some money there but the ideal entry has passed. We are deeply oversold on the stock indices. They will bounce and soon. If not it will be something very ugly to remember. But I'm calling for a bounce and playing that via GE. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
We were up, down and all over the place today. The Dow ended 5 points higher on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We were up over 100 points after the Fed left rates unchanged. But we couldn't hold the gains. We really need to see some more upside here in my opinion because we remain oversold. The overall market was stronger than the Dow but we came off the highs there as well. So we'll see what happens. I took a look at the OEX calls but didn't buy any. Gold lost about $9 on the futures but came back in the aftermarket. The XAU sold off early and came all the way back to be up 1/2. Another gold share buy signal was rendered. I had an order in for some ABX calls but wasn't filled. ABX was down 1/2, GG and NEM were flat after selling off early. Volatility picked up in the gold issues. The dollar fell after the Fed announcement. Oil was off as well. I'm thinking of leaving in an overnight order in ABX but it's risky. GE rose 40 cents on heavy volume. Perhaps we are finally putting in a bottom there. I'm not trading it here though. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. My thinking is that I should have just got some gold share calls when the buy signal appeared again. However at this point it may be better to wait for the shares to pull back again. Perhaps it is just another missed opportunity. You really need to take a stand one way or another at some point. I'm having trouble with that at the moment. There hasn't been a decent long term trend for gold lately and the sideways movement can be frustrating. Sooner or later it will break out but the timing of that is the question.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
The Dow lost 35 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We are due for some positive action. We opened lower, went positive and then fell back. I don't want to say crash but we need to move to the upside. The Fed meeting is 2 days so the announcement will be tomorrow, not today as I stated yesterday. That should be some type of catalyst one way or the other. I'm hoping that we will start to build a bottom here because if we don't... Technically oversold here. Gold rose $4 and the XAU dropped a point. ABX was flat, GG lost a bit of ground and NEM was up 2/3. Volume was light. The dollar lost a bit of ground ahead of the Fed. So now what with the gold shares? ABX and GG are both showing dojis on their respective daily candlestick charts. That isn't bullish. I still would like to be a buyer of the gold shares on the next buy signal though. GE was up 1/4 on average volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I feel OK. We all know that it's a tough game to play. Patience is required. The July option cycle has just begun. I'm going to stick with my gold share scenario for now. I'll purchase some calls on the next signal provided we are oversold. There's also a chance that gold could break down through the support at about $870 and then all bets are off. I don't think that's going to happen but it could.
Monday, June 23, 2008
We ended up where we started today as the Dow was flat. Volume was good but the advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. That usually doesn't bode well for the bullish case going forward. We are oversold though on a short term basis. The NASDAQ was weaker but the S&P 500 was unchanged. I don't really know what to make of things here but we really need to head higher or we're in bigger trouble than I thought. The Fed announcement is tomorrow and we should move off of that. I don't expect any movement in the funds rate and neither does anyone else. Gold was hit today, down over $15. However the XAU rose 2 points. Go figure. The dollar had a good day too but the gold shares sold off early and came all the way back. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher but the volume was nothing special. The buy signal for the gold shares appears to be valid but it has worked its way off now. I think today may have been the day to get your calls there. I probably should have. It makes no sense for the gold shares to rally in the face of a gold sell-off and a dollar rally. My thinking is that the sellers are gone for now. But I could be wrong. It was a one day reversal to the upside though. I'm going to try and be a buyer of something if the gold shares pull back a bit. GE was flat on average volume. Can it stay oversold forever? I looked at some calls, they are very cheap. Not thinking it's the best way to go but who knows? Mentally I feel OK, slept well. My mind is on the gold shares. I think the Fed will try and come out with a hawkish statement to support the dollar tomorrow. However when that is over, I think the idea of a weak US economy will take center stage driving the dollar lower. That's my guess at this point. The fact that the XAU didn't break down today leads me to believe that is the place to go. I could be wrong but that is going to be my focus going forward.
Friday, June 20, 2008
A June swoon into the expiration as the Dow lost 220 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. We are short term oversold. I'd expect some upside early next week but the market is in treacherous territory. We are testing the lows of March and there is a chance now that I think they may not hold. The summation index is approaching the zero line and the market could fall apart. I'm not saying it will but when we get to the zero line, the chance of a sharp decline is out there. Of course things could hold here and we start a nice summer rally. I really don't know. The TRIN figures aren't really blown out to the downside yet and that worries me. We'll see what happens. Gold was relatively flat today and so was the XAU. ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally higher on average volume. The buy signal is in place and I probably should act on it. I would like to see a bit of weakness first because we are short term overbought in these issues. But you don't always get what you want in this game. The chart patterns look more like short term tops. If we get some weakness in the gold shares early next week, I'll look to pick up some calls. GE lost 1/2 on good volume. Down, down we go in GE. Oversold, staying there and no end in sight. I guess it is leading the markets down after all. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trying to figure out if today was the beginning of the end or just an expiration event. Haven't seen any panic yet so there might be more room to the downside to go. I'm pretty much determined to get some gold calls. The dollar reversed this week and could be heading lower, which would support the gold price. However physical gold has moved up but the gold shares haven't done much. There's always some type of dilemma. But now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Rest up over the weekend and get some kind of idea what to do on Monday.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
A bit of a bounce today as the Dow gained 34 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about even. We were getting pretty short term oversold, so some kind of upside was to be expected. I don't think it will last right now but you never know. I looked at the OEX calls but didn't do anything. I'll wait on the OEX. Gold was up $10 today but the XAU fell 1 1/3. Gold is dropping in the aftermarket. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower after opening higher. A one day reversal to the downside and the volume increased. Not a good sign if you're looking to get some gold share calls as I am. I'm still getting a buy signal there and I will probably pick up some calls next week. ABX or GG most likely unless things just tank out for gold here. The dollar didn't do much today but oil was down pretty good. GE was flat on average volume. Oversold there for quite some time and not even a look at going higher. It can't stay down forever can it? Perhaps it is a foreboding sign for the overall market. But perhaps not. Mentally I'm doing OK. Already looking to the July option cycle. I'm thinking that this decline has about run its course. I think tomorrow will be a down day as I said yesterday. But we are about to get a positive divergence in the McClellan oscillator if we don't just collapse here. So perhaps next week we will put in a trading bottom. As usual the market will go where it wants. There is also a chance that the summer doldrums will be upon us and sideways will be the norm. At any rate, I'm going to keep an eye on the gold shares and take it from there.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Continuing to the downside as the Dow dropped another 131 points. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. If I were a short term trader, I'd be looking for a bounce tomorrow. I think Friday will be a down day though. It looks like we will test the lows from earlier this spring. My guess is that they will hold for now but it's just a guess. Anything could happen. Gold was up 6 bucks today and continues higher in the after-market. The XAU rose 1 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally higher. However the volume continues light. Got another buy signal for the gold shares today. I would like to act on it but the volume is keeping me out. However I am looking at the July calls now for those 3 issues. That looks like it could be the next trade now. GE lost over 60 cents on heavy volume. As much as I'd like to get the July calls there, I might just have to sit it out. This is a falling knife that is burrowing into the ground at this point. But we'll see. Maybe I'll take a stab at it, pun intended. Mentally I'm doing fine, slept OK. Staying out of the June option cycle which really gave some good opportunities to the downside. I just wasn't sharp enough to take advantage of them. 2 days left before expiration. Looking to July now and also interested in how this week ends. I'm thinking up tomorrow and down on Friday.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 109 points. Advance/declines were negative and volume looks to be average. I was hoping for a little more upside before getting some OEX puts but it wasn't to be. The prudent thing to do at this point is to step aside. If we do come back in the next 2 days, I might try something for Friday. But there isn't much time and the risk is higher than usual. Gold was little changed today as was the XAU. ABX up 1/3, GG up 3/4 and NEM flat on the day. Volume was light here again as interest in the gold shares has waned. Perhaps I'll try something for the July cycle. Who knows? GE was off a dime on good volume. Yes, I'm looking at the July calls here but I'm not completely sure about that either. GE has been hammered down for weeks now without as much as a bounce really. But I suppose that's when you want to be buying. We'll see. Mentally I feel fine, slept well. I don't see any real good set-ups at the moment. It's tough remaining on the sidelines but sometimes that is what you have to do. GE is about the only thing that looks like it might be a possibility. Another scenario is that we just meander around and move sideways for quite some time. The summation index remains to the downside, as downside energy remains in the market. Summer rally coming up? Perhaps if oil takes a big drop. For now it's just a wait and see attitude.
Monday, June 16, 2008
A lighter volume expiration Monday as the Dow lost 38 points. Advance/declines were positive. It has a feel of a market that wants to go higher. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. I'd still like to get some OEX puts sometime this week though. Loads of data due out tomorrow, including inflation. I'm on the sidelines for now and may just stay there all week. But we'll see. Gold was up around $12 today and the XAU rose 3 points. The gold shares were higher early but sold off. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a buck but the volume was light. Buying the ABX calls on Friday would have worked. The dollar was weaker today and oil sold off near the end also. As much as I'd like to play gold here, I'm backing off for now. GE was down about 20 cents on very heavy volume again. I don't know what is going on there but the volume recently has been incredible. Not too mention that it is very oversold and staying there. I'm thinking about getting some July calls. It can't stay oversold forever. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'm trying not to force things here. My thinking is that if we stay higher early in the week, we will sell off later. There's only 4 days left in the June cycle. Any trade here would have more risk than usual however, if an opportunity presents itself I'll give it a shot. Not with a lot of money considering the time remaining. So we'll see how the market reacts to the data tomorrow.
Friday, June 13, 2008
The Dow had a good Friday the 13th, up 165 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Strong at the open, fell back and then rallied back to the highs for a change. Is the decline over? Perhaps. I do think we will need to test the recent lows next week and we'll see if they hold. Summation index still pointing down. I will probably try the OEX puts at some point next week, when I feel we are short term overbought. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU rallied 2 points, mainly on FCX. ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed on light volume. I did have an order in for some ABX calls early but canceled it later on. Might try again on Monday. But there hasn't been much interest there lately. With a week to go it may not be the smartest play even with the buy signal. The dollar continues strong so the fundamental picture has changed for now. But things can change on a dime and the gold shares are short and medium term oversold. We'll see. GE had a very interesting day ending up flat on extreme volume. It sold off and came back. Could it be the bottom for GE? It too is very oversold both short and medium term. Perhaps I will look at some July calls there. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as well as I could have. A week to go on the June option cycle. There will be opportunities next week but the time frame will be compressed. Timing in and out will be even more critical than usual. Short term trades are tough for me but I will probably give it a go. Right now I'm looking at perhaps some gold share calls or some OEX puts. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. My feeling is that we will hit the summer doldrums after next week. This could be the last decent trading period for a while. But I could be wrong. For now, it's the weekend and time for a break.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
We had a good start to the day, up over 170 at one point. We gave it all back and then snapped back at the end on some Microsoft news. The Dow gained 58 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. We were oversold and due for some upside. The question is, is that all there is? We'll probably find out tomorrow. Inflation data out tomorrow and we'll move off of that. Gold lost another $10. The XAU lost over 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM all lost ground but came back from their lows. Volume was light. There is a buy signal now for the gold shares. However the momentum is to the downside. I might try something though. The dollar was back up today. Oil sold off and came back at the close. GE was lower by 3/4 on heavy volume. Is GE pointing the way down here? We'll see. Mentally I'm tired, busy day. I really think we need to see some more upside for the overall market here before trying a short play. It also might be too late for that. There is nothing wrong with remaining on the sidelines. The gold shares are looking interesting with the signal. But it's risky there too. But when isn't it? I'll take a closer look at things tonight and go from there.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Back to the downside as the Dow lost 206 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. Getting pretty oversold at this point but there is no indication that the downside is done. Summation index continuing lower. We are just below 610 on the OEX, which was my original target. How far down are we going? Can't say that I know but now it seems as though the powers that be will run this thing down into the expiration. If we do get some short covering, I might try the OEX puts. Gold came back over $10 today and the XAU gained 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains and were higher earlier in the day. Volume was lighter than yesterday. As crazy as it sounds we are close to a buy signal for the gold shares. I am thinking of leaving in an overnight order in case we drop at the open tomorrow. I'll check the charts and go from there. The dollar fell pretty good today and the volatility there lately is puzzling. Oil was higher and gold followed this time. I can't say that I have a solid grasp of what is going on at the moment. GE dropped 1/2 on good volume. No trades there. Mentally I feel OK, considering that I have missed this downside move. Slept good last night. There will be opportunity here, with the market dropping out of bed. I might go out to the July or August gold calls. We'll see. It could be that we just keep heading lower too. I'll need to keep an eye on things and not be afraid to take a stand if I feel that the time has come. But it won't be easy.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
A hang around day as the Dow was up 6 points on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. Not a good sign for the bulls. We were both higher and lower on the day and finished right in the middle as the market decides what to do here. Summation index continuing lower and I'd like to try the OEX puts if anything. But I'll need to see some strength in the form of another short covering rally. Fed beige book tomorrow and we should move off of that. I'll remain on the sidelines for now but I do see myself engaged in some type of trade before expiration. Gold got clobbered on the higher dollar today, losing over $25. The XAU got creamed, losing over 8 points. ABX down 3, GG down 2 3/4, NEM down 2 1/4. Volume was heavy. So much for my idea of getting ABX calls. Sometimes your ideas are just flat out wrong, which was the case here. I am fortunate that none of my buy orders were filled in the past few days. The dollar reversed last weeks losses and is heading higher at the moment. Gold will not be going back up in that kind of environment. I will wait for a buy signal. GE was up 1/4 on average volume. Not much to make of what is going on there. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well. It seems as though my view of the markets here is not consistent with what is actually happening. The trend is down but I haven't made any money from it. There is still a chance before expiration but it won't be easy. Perhaps I'm still uneasy from the last losing trade but that was quite some time ago now. I'm going to continue keeping an eye on things and go from there. I'll do my best to try and not force things in the near term. I still think we are heading lower before expiration.
Monday, June 09, 2008
We stopped the carnage for a day as the Dow gained 71 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. It seems as though we are just hanging around waiting for the next fall. Who knows? Maybe I'll try buying some OEX puts again. Summation index heading lower. We have the Fed beige book coming out this week along with retail sales and inflation data. So we will be moving around I suspect. So we'll see. Gold lost a bit of ground but the XAU rose 1 1/2. ABX was flat, while GG and NEM had fractional gains. Volume was lighter than Friday. I had an order in for the ABX calls again but it wasn't filled. Oil was off over $4 and the dollar rallied quite strongly. Gold held up pretty good considering. I'd kind of like to see some pullback in ABX to put on that trade but that is probably wishful thinking. GE was flat on good volume. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. Where we go from here now is the question. I think we are heading lower overall, perhaps lower than my original target of 610 for the OEX. There really aren't any reasons to buy here. Perhaps another short covering rally but that would be about it at this point. 9 days to go on the June cycle. I will try and not do anything stupid. The gold shares are what I'm looking at right now. But I'm not completely sold on that idea anymore after todays dollar action. But it's a long week and anything could happen. I'll check things tonight and go from there.
Friday, June 06, 2008
Today even more interesting than yesterday as the Dow lost 395 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1. The near term support on the indices was broken and we're headed lower. I guess I should have stuck with the OEX put scenario but it's always clear in hindsight. In no way did I expect a close to 400 point down move after gaining over 200 points yesterday. Unemployment rose a lot and now the fear of recession is back in the picture. The summation index had flattened out but it will be moving lower after today. In the wake of all of todays action, I did put in an order for some ABX calls as gold rose over $20. The XAU rose 3 points. ABX and GG were up around a buck fifty on good volume. NEM managed 40 cents to the upside. The dollar lost more ground and oil was up $10. Normally I would not chase a move but I think gold will rally in the next couple of weeks as the market drops. Todays employment report should weaken the dollar further. In theory of course. Anyway the order for calls wasn't filled but I'm ready to try again on Monday. GE lost a buck on heavy volume. Just yesterday it looked like it was trying to rise from the bottom. So much for that. Mentally I'm OK I suppose. Didn't sleep all that great but enough. Where we go from here is the question and I think that the answer is lower. I'll check out things over the weekend as usual. Monday should be very interesting as well. I'll come up with some type of game plan and take it from there. For now, it's time for a break.
Thursday, June 05, 2008
I must say I was surprised to see a rise of 214 points in the Dow today. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive and the volume was good. I canceled the open order for the OEX puts and was thankful that I didn't chase the move down. Short covering today for sure but it was even more impressive than that. With oil up over $5, the market continued higher. Luckily the medium term oversold condition stopped me from buying the puts. Where do we go from here? The overall market was always stronger than the Dow on the way down and that was puzzling. Perhaps it was telling you that the decline didn't have legs. We'll see. I'll have to wait for a signal but I would guess that we're going higher. Gold was down over $5 but the XAU followed the market, higher by 5 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all up a buck or more and the volume picked up. The gold shares followed oil and the weaker dollar but gold itself didn't. Don't know what to make of that. I'll try and be patient there. GE was up 1/2 on average volume. It's still oversold but could this be the beginning of something to the upside? I'll have to check the charts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying not to do anything stupid here. Still over 2 weeks on the June option cycle. I'll try not to force things here. There is now room technically for the market to go either way. However todays action certainly looks like the beginning of a multi-day move to the upside. We'll see. Employment report tomorrow.
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
We lost 12 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were higher early, sold off and came back. That seems to be the scenario for this water torture type of decline so far. I still have an open order in for some OEX puts but it's getting late for that I think. The market is just hanging around too much. Usually, when we go down, we just go down. So I'm thinking we are going to get some type of massive short covering rally in the near future. I will probably cancel that open order before Fridays employment report. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU dropped 3 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down. NEM not so much. Volume continues light there as players have found other places to go. Same stronger dollar, weaker oil story today. GE was flat on lighter volume. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well. I still think there is room on the downside overall but I don't think it's set in stone. We are trending down but sideways as well. It is a tough environment if you are not already short. It is close to being short term oversold but the medium term is starting to work off the oversold condition. Still plenty of time before expiration. I'll try my best to be patient and not do anything stupid. But you never know.
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
An interesting day as the Dow was higher early, sold off pretty hard half way through the day, came back pretty good and sold off again. We ended down 100 points on heavier volume. Advance/declines were negative. Still medium term oversold and not doing much to alleviate that. It makes me apprehensive about the OEX puts. But I still have an open order to get some if we hit the price that I'm willing to pay. But it's a mixed bag at this point in my opinion. I'd like to see some short covering or something to the upside before the employment report on Friday. Technically oversold too on a number of indicators. It's hard to get short under these conditions. Gold lost over $10 and the XAU fell 3 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all down on light volume. Lower oil and a higher dollar probably to blame there. I have no plans at the moment for the gold shares. Eventually they will get interesting again. I have no decent signal as yet. GE was flat on good volume. Not seeing any help from GE lately as to the direction of the market. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not happy about missing the down move here but what can you do. It seems as though I get more upset with myself missing moves than I do losing money. That makes no sense. Summation index continues lower, gotta respect that. So we'll go on to tomorrow.
Monday, June 02, 2008
Still settling things out for the day as the Dow lost around 135 points. Advance/declines are over 2 to 1 negative and the volume looks light but it isn't final as of yet. We were off over 200 at one point and made a comeback. I'm leaving in an open order again for some OEX puts but I'm not completely sold on the idea. We held near term support today and are medium term oversold in my opinion. I don't see any big decline until the oversold condition is worked off. That could happen in the next few days, so I'll keep an eye on it. Summation index will be pointing down, telling me puts are the way to go here. The ideal scenario is strength into Wednesday and take it from there. Gold gained 5 bucks while the XAU was basically flat. The XAU was higher earlier but sold off with the market. ABX was flat. GG and NEM posted small gains. Volume in the gold shares was light. I'm staying away from there for the time being. GE lost 1/3 on good volume. Oversold here as well, both daily and weekly. You'd expect GE to start heading up, considering the technical condition. But it isn't happening. Could that be the harbinger of things to come in the overall market? I certainly don't know. Mentally I feel fine, slept well. As much as I'd like to get some OEX puts here, I am going to wait and see if we get a couple of up days this week. The employment report on Friday will most likely be the big mover, one way or the other. If we get a light volume rally from here, I would feel better about getting the puts. However the market, as always, will do what it wants.