Friday, June 20, 2008
A June swoon into the expiration as the Dow lost 220 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. We are short term oversold. I'd expect some upside early next week but the market is in treacherous territory. We are testing the lows of March and there is a chance now that I think they may not hold. The summation index is approaching the zero line and the market could fall apart. I'm not saying it will but when we get to the zero line, the chance of a sharp decline is out there. Of course things could hold here and we start a nice summer rally. I really don't know. The TRIN figures aren't really blown out to the downside yet and that worries me. We'll see what happens. Gold was relatively flat today and so was the XAU. ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally higher on average volume. The buy signal is in place and I probably should act on it. I would like to see a bit of weakness first because we are short term overbought in these issues. But you don't always get what you want in this game. The chart patterns look more like short term tops. If we get some weakness in the gold shares early next week, I'll look to pick up some calls. GE lost 1/2 on good volume. Down, down we go in GE. Oversold, staying there and no end in sight. I guess it is leading the markets down after all. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trying to figure out if today was the beginning of the end or just an expiration event. Haven't seen any panic yet so there might be more room to the downside to go. I'm pretty much determined to get some gold calls. The dollar reversed this week and could be heading lower, which would support the gold price. However physical gold has moved up but the gold shares haven't done much. There's always some type of dilemma. But now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Rest up over the weekend and get some kind of idea what to do on Monday.