Friday, June 13, 2008
The Dow had a good Friday the 13th, up 165 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Strong at the open, fell back and then rallied back to the highs for a change. Is the decline over? Perhaps. I do think we will need to test the recent lows next week and we'll see if they hold. Summation index still pointing down. I will probably try the OEX puts at some point next week, when I feel we are short term overbought. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU rallied 2 points, mainly on FCX. ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed on light volume. I did have an order in for some ABX calls early but canceled it later on. Might try again on Monday. But there hasn't been much interest there lately. With a week to go it may not be the smartest play even with the buy signal. The dollar continues strong so the fundamental picture has changed for now. But things can change on a dime and the gold shares are short and medium term oversold. We'll see. GE had a very interesting day ending up flat on extreme volume. It sold off and came back. Could it be the bottom for GE? It too is very oversold both short and medium term. Perhaps I will look at some July calls there. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as well as I could have. A week to go on the June option cycle. There will be opportunities next week but the time frame will be compressed. Timing in and out will be even more critical than usual. Short term trades are tough for me but I will probably give it a go. Right now I'm looking at perhaps some gold share calls or some OEX puts. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. My feeling is that we will hit the summer doldrums after next week. This could be the last decent trading period for a while. But I could be wrong. For now, it's the weekend and time for a break.