Monday, June 23, 2008
We ended up where we started today as the Dow was flat. Volume was good but the advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. That usually doesn't bode well for the bullish case going forward. We are oversold though on a short term basis. The NASDAQ was weaker but the S&P 500 was unchanged. I don't really know what to make of things here but we really need to head higher or we're in bigger trouble than I thought. The Fed announcement is tomorrow and we should move off of that. I don't expect any movement in the funds rate and neither does anyone else. Gold was hit today, down over $15. However the XAU rose 2 points. Go figure. The dollar had a good day too but the gold shares sold off early and came all the way back. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher but the volume was nothing special. The buy signal for the gold shares appears to be valid but it has worked its way off now. I think today may have been the day to get your calls there. I probably should have. It makes no sense for the gold shares to rally in the face of a gold sell-off and a dollar rally. My thinking is that the sellers are gone for now. But I could be wrong. It was a one day reversal to the upside though. I'm going to try and be a buyer of something if the gold shares pull back a bit. GE was flat on average volume. Can it stay oversold forever? I looked at some calls, they are very cheap. Not thinking it's the best way to go but who knows? Mentally I feel OK, slept well. My mind is on the gold shares. I think the Fed will try and come out with a hawkish statement to support the dollar tomorrow. However when that is over, I think the idea of a weak US economy will take center stage driving the dollar lower. That's my guess at this point. The fact that the XAU didn't break down today leads me to believe that is the place to go. I could be wrong but that is going to be my focus going forward.