Sunday afternoon. The dollar looks weaker as do the stock index futures. The ABX short trade is stupid. Yes, there is a divergence but I gotta be honest with myself. I did that trade after hearing somebody on CNBC say that gold had reached a top. I never do stupid things like that and I honestly don't know why I did it at the time. It's totally foolish. Yes, ABX rallied on light volume on friday and that isn't bullish. But I am actually waiting for a pullback to get long ABX or some other gold shares. There is no reason to try the short side. You have to go with your own judgement or convictions in this game. Nothing else is acceptable. What made me all of a sudden toss away my usual good judgement and enter a trade like that? I don't know. You've always got to be on guard against yourself. It is a most difficult thing to do. But sometimes you just blow it and that is what I have done with this trade. I should probably just get out in the morning and move on. That could be the best thing to do. Even if it makes some money it still sucks as a trade. Gold is moving up, with a pause here and there. Like I said, it was dumb and now I'll just have to suffer the consequences of my actions. There are no excuses in this game. You just move on and hope that the mistakes don't repeat themselves. They won't if you have any sense about it. But it is an ongoing battle and I try my best. You just have to have confidence in yourself and your ideas. Believe in yourself, that's the key. Don't let others influence your decisions and choices. Do the research and go with your own conclusions. Your thoughts and ideas are just as good as the rest of the players in the game. In fact they are probably better because you've been playing for quite a while and have seen a lot of things. So hang in there, stick with it and good things will happen.
Friday, October 29, 2004
The weekend has arrived. Dow up 22 points on lighter volume today. Advance/declines were positive. Gold was up over $3 today. ABX and NEM were up also but the volume was lighter than it has been lately. I made a trade. I now own some ABX puts. The negative divergence is still there and I am taking a shot here. Not a lot of money at stake here. We are at the top of the trend channel. Not sure what the exit goal will be. GDP was under 4%, how could it not be. The dollar fell but not by much. There is the election to get through. GE was up a tad, the long term options remain in the plus. I still have the open order for Pfizer. Lots of crosscurrents here but decisions must be made and trading must go on. The election looms large. Hopefully we will have a definite winner by wednesday. If not, I think the market will fall. I'm thinking of putting some more long term money to work in the mutual funds early next week. We are overbought on the Dow and OEX though. I'll need to see some weakness. I might get back here this weekend after I've had a chance to unwind from the week.
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Not a lot of movement today. The Dow was up 2 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about even. It is good to see that the volume has come back into the market. We are somewhat overbought here and a pullback before the election is expected. Tomorrow we have the first GDP report for the 3rd quarter. Around 4.5% is expected but I can't see it coming in that high. We'll see. Gold did not move much today but the XAU was off a point and a half. ABX and NEM were both down. Still a negative divergence on a couple of gold share charts. That may prove worth standing on the sidelines for now. The dollar was down a little today. GE was up a tad and the January options are showing a profit. I'm holding these for the long haul barring some unforeseen event. Pfizer was down today and I am leaving the open order active. Oil was down another buck and a half. China raised its interest rates which was a mild surprise. More tomorrow...
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
This site is having problems again. Might have to find a new one. Market up big again on good volume. Dow up over 110 points with 2 to 1 A/D's. GE up along with PFE. I'm leaving the open order for PFE although it looks like I missed it. Timing was right on but the option never got to my price on the ask. Gold was down a bit today but the gold stocks went down regardless of good earnings from NEM. Oil got clobbered and the dollar was up a tad and that didn't help the gold shares. There looks to be a negative divergence on some of the golds now and I am thankful that I didn't chase the move. That is something to remember, don't chase the move. GDP is out on friday and the dollar will move on that. I'll try to stay on the sidelines I suppose. Still plenty of time on the November options. My thinking is that this move in the market is real and I will look to perhaps add some more money to my mutual funds on any pullback. Long term money doesn't have to be timed as accurately but every little bit helps.
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Still a half hour to go today. I have to leave early so the post must be done now. The Dow is up over 100 points on good volume. Advance/declines are 2 to 1 positive. GE is up around 50 cents. I still have an open order for December Pfizer calls but the stock is up again today and it doesn't look like it will be filled. I'll keep it open for now. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU was off a little as is ABX and NEM. The earnings came out on ABX today and they were not as good as expected. It sold off at the open but has since come back. There is a potential bearish candlestick pattern there today. I'm holding off for now. But the volume keeps coming into this issue and I would like a position in November calls, hopefully in the next 2 weeks. The money coming into gold has been pretty good so I've got to believe that it will continue to push higher. Dollar weakness is the key and that chart looks pretty bearish but could be due for a bounce. It is not easy to sit on the sidelines but chasing moves is not something that I feel confident doing. Patience is the key and I've got to wait for a pullback. If that doesn't happen there are always other games in town. But the volume is saying that gold shares are heading higher and I 'd like to take advantage of that. It's never easy, this game of trading. But the rewards for being astute are there for the taking if you're good enough. We'll see...
Sunday, October 24, 2004
Sunday. It looks like the dollar is continuing to get killed over the weekend. This should bode well for gold. I need to find a way to get a position. However, it is much too late. My only hope is for some type of pullback, remote as it seems. I am now looking to go in another direction. I have checked out Pfizer in the drug group and have an order placed for some December calls. They are priced for the stock to fall a bit more here but it has already been smashed. The technicals are blown out to the downside and a bounce is certainly due between now and December. If Bush wins the election, and that's no certainty, then these shares should rise and the calls also in value. I'm not looking for the usual home run here. Just a simple bounce trade, hopefully, with a 100% profit. I am not taking a huge position here. It is very modest. But I think the idea is feasible and that it will work. I will have to remind myself that this isn't going to be a big winner. It is so tough to do. The overall market looks like it wants to continue down on monday also. I will be playing golf before the close so tomorrows posting perhaps will be late or not at all. The time changes in a week so one last round of golf before that happens. Also balance is important when dealing with the markets. You really need a break once in a while so you don't burn out. Your mind needs to rest so it can stay fresh. It is much better to trade with an open and clear mind than with one that has been so consumed with trading that it fails to see anything else. Don't get me wrong, the work must be done and kept up on a daily basis. But there is also time to take a break and get away from it all. You will need to know when you need to do it or else your trading will suffer. You can't run your brain at 100 miles per hour constantly without risking burnout. As much as I love to trade I also understand that there is more to it than just that. Balance is essential.
Friday, October 22, 2004
The Dow got pounded today, down over 105 points. Volume was good. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. I think the market is pointing to a Kerry victory. Just a guess but that seems to be what the market is saying. Gold was off 30 cents today. ABX continues to move higher on good volume. My GTC order did not get filled and I canceled it. ABX has moved away from me. NEM was down today a few cents and I am looking to go there, if possible. The XAU was up a few cents. ABX earnings on tuesday and NEM earnings on wednesday. I have no idea what to expect but I wish I were long both. Cannot chase the move though. It's not easy. GE was down today and my way out January options didn't move. Perhaps I'm early on this. Don't know. Still lamenting not being long some gold shares. The dollar continues to weaken. I'll hope for a pullback in gold next week to get long. The shares are up against the top of the Bollinger bands so I think the upside is limited for the next couple weeks. Not completely overbought but getting close. OEX is breaking to new recent lows. Not a good sign but the technicals are oversold. Extra week on all the options makes it difficult also, pricewise. It's hard not to beat yourself up when you see the moves you were expecting yet have no positions to take advantage. It's not about the money. Really, the money doesn't matter. What matters is your performance. How you deal with the markets. You've got to live up to your own expectations. This has to do with how you trade and not how much money you make. Success is measured on your own terms, not a monetary figure. That may be hard to understand but that is the bottom line...
Thursday, October 21, 2004
Dow down 20 points today on heavy volume again. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive though. Uncertain what is going on here but I'm going to put some more long term money to work in my mutual funds tomorrow. Tradingwise, no OEX trades for now. GE moved up today. I wanted to change the price on my GTC order today because it appeared GE was breaking an uptrend line. When I went to the site to change it, lo and behold, my order had just been filled. So I now own some January GE calls. Eons of time on this trade. Gold was off 50 cents, ABX fell a little and NEM was up. The XAU was up slightly. I placed a GTC order for some November ABX calls, trying to get ahead of the earnings report next week. I don't like chasing it here but do not want to be left behind if this move keeps going. Do not know if it will get filled and may possibly cancel before the weekend. The dollar has been getting killed this week and quite frankly, I would have expected a better move in gold. But we are at long term resistance there. However if it breaks through, I do think it has a chance before the November expiration, then the gold stocks will rally pretty good. This is just a guess as are all things in this game. Some are more educated guesses than others. It is hard for me to remain patient and I struggle with that issue on a daily basis. Control of yourself is the key to getting things done properly. The battle within continues...
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
The Dow down 10 points today on good volume again. The volume has picked up here for some reason lately. Advance/declines were positive. The market had sold off but came back some. GE was down and I now have a GTC order in for the January calls. Plenty of time for this trade. I don't normally go out so far in time so we'll see what happens. Gold was up another $3 today. The XAU went along this time, up almost 3 points. I did put an order in for some ABX calls since my other GTC order had not been filled. The price moved too far so I canceled the GTC and went up to the next strike price. After not being filled for an hour or so I checked the charts and although I do like this idea, it looks like I have missed the move this time. ABX has already gone up a dollar. Perhaps it will come back and build a better base. I canceled the order. I would like to be long before the earnings next tuesday but it has already started to move. We'll see what happens. NEM was up over a buck today on heavy volume. So the money continues to flow into these issues. I'll try and find a way to follow it. No OEX trades for now. Premiums too expensive. Summation index still pointing down but the McClellan oscillator looks oversold. That's it for today.
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
Interesting day, however I was stuck in jury duty. I managed to see the close in the jury hall when I was able to change the channel on the TV. The Dow ended down around 60 points and would have been worse if IBM wasn't up over $3. It was up 50 when I left early this morning. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was actually heavy. Indicators are getting oversold but I don't know if today's volume was climatic or perhaps the beginning of a protracted downturn. It was a one day reversal for sure. GE was down and the January calls are getting down to where I'd like them to be. But it looks like GE has more to go. Gold was up over $4 today but the XAU could not even rise a point. This doesn't bode well for the gold shares. However ABX was up over 40 cents on good volume. NEM barely moved. Mixed and now uncertain in my mind for sure. I am leaving my GTC ABX order open. Perhaps I will move to NEM. I don't know. When the XAU can't get going with a good move in gold it makes me wary. Perhaps ABX can come back to it's uptrend line. That would be the ideal scenario. Or maybe this is the beginning of the next move up. I don't know and will wait it out for now. Trading is tough, make no mistake about that. An extra week on the options might let me be timid here and allow for more decision time. But if the time is right, the price is right. It has to be. It may not be exactly what you want to pay for it, but if the move begins you wanna be with it. Unsure what the action today in ABX means. Things will be back to normal and I'll be in touch with the market as usual. You really must be dedicated to the game I believe, to gain an edge. It is better to stay in a normal routine when watching the market. It is easier to spot the common and the uncommon. Hard to say what the market is saying here but I think it is headed down for the Dow. The gold market is tougher. I'd like to see a lazy pull back to $415. Wishful thinking...
Monday, October 18, 2004
Monday in the markets. Dow up over 20 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Lots of data out tomorrow with inflation and housing reports. I'm thinking the market can rally a bit here but I'm not convinced it can sustain it. We'll see. Gold was off a couple bucks today. The XAU was down around 1 3/4 points. ABX and NEM were both down but not much on average volume. I placed another GTC order for some ABX calls. We are getting near the uptrend line and I am banking on it holding. ABX announces earnings next tuesday and I'd like to be long before that. It is oversold on the daily charts also. Gold is around $415 and needs to hold $410. If not I will assume a downtrend is underway. GE was up today but the technical picture is mixed and not giving a solid buy signal yet. Would like to see it pull back before committing to the January calls. Not much else on the radar screen. With a 5 week option cycle the prices are expensive. However if a legitimate signal appears it must be acted on. I've got jury duty tomorrow so I will be unable to follow the markets as usual. Hopefully it will only be for one day.
Friday, October 15, 2004
We got a small bounce today with the Dow up around 35 points. Volume was expiration heavy and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. OEX calls could have been purchased today for a profit. I stayed on the sidelines. Gold did not move much today, it was up a little. The XAU was up quite well though, almost 2 points. These two have disconnected recently and haven't been in sync. I don't have a reason but would guess it has something to do with the expiration this week. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume. I will purchase some calls on one of these issues next week. I'd like to get a good price but they are expensive with a 5 week option cycle for November. If and when they get to their up trend lines I will be purchasing calls. I still believe the trend is up for now and that this theory will work. I will hope for a pullback in gold to around $410 and see what happens there. It's a tricky play. The dollar has gotten weaker this week and that seems to be the key for gold. We had a good sell-off in the precious metal and it has come back. I interpret that as bullish and hopefully correctly so. Like I said, I'd like to see the options get cheaper and then make a purchase. Patience, yes. But I don't want to be left behind either. GE was up a tad today but I think the market has lower to go here and will take GE with it. I'm still looking to January there. The weekend has arrived...
Thursday, October 14, 2004
Markets continued down today, the Dow off over 105 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were negative but not as much as yesterday. I really wanted to buy some OEX calls today. There is a buy signal on one of my indicators. The McClellan Oscillator is oversold at -121 also. There is only one day left. It would have to be a quick scalp trade. I had to battle myself not to do it. I suppose I really need a longer time frame to be confident. Perhaps another time I would have done it. But risk has got to be managed. Gold was up around $5 today. However the XAU did not move along with it and was only up fractionally. That is never a good sign for the gold stocks. I canceled my open order for November ABX calls. I still want to buy them but will wait it out for now. NEM and ABX were up slightly today on light volume. GE was down again, no trade there yet. Oil was higher again. Eventually oil will drop and the market will take off to the upside. I should be putting some more long term money to work in my mutual funds before that happens. Hopefully...
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
The Dow lost 75 points today as oil hit new highs. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was good. So much for buying calls on the OEX. I almost did. However one must remember one of the golden rules. Don't try to get long when the summation index is pointing down. Especially when it is just starting down. Perhaps after it has been in a downtrend for a while you can try to step in but not at the beginning. Gold was off a couple bucks but the XAU got hammered, down almost 3 points. It was down more than 4 at one point. NEM was down around 50 cents but really held up rather well considering. The volume was huge. ABX was off 60 cents and I put in an order for some November calls. Far from the price right now but I'm expecting a bottom to form and that should take a while. There is an uptrend line that hasn't been violated and when it hits that line I would like to be filled. If the line doesn't hold then I will get out with a small loss. But I expect the line to hold. NEM possibly will be the better play this time and I will keep an eye on it. GE was down and I'm still looking out to January there. The basic materials got slammed today and I am guessing it might have been option related for the big boys. I was wrong in which way they'd run it. Final presidential debate tonight and perhaps something will happen. Dollar was higher. I'll try my best to sit on the sidelines before the expiration but you never know.
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
This site has been screwing up lately. The Dow was basically unchanged today, down around 4 points on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were negative. I don't have a clear signal but would like to buy some OEX calls. I'm trying to do the right thing which in this case may be to do nothing. Gold got killed today, down $7. The XAU was off almost 3 points and NEM was down over a dollar. ABX lost ground also. Perhaps my feeling that the gold stocks would be run up into the expiration was wrong. It's looking that way now. Oil sold off today also and all the commodities seemed to take a hit. I'm still looking to get long for November and ABX has pulled back to the $21 breakout point. Lots of time but I will have to wait for the technicals to give a signal. Patience will be key and it usually is. GE was unchanged. The summation index is pointing down now so it's tough for me to make a commitment to the long side. Anything can happen expiration week though.
Monday, October 11, 2004
It was Columbus Day today so the trading was light. Dow up around 25 points, advance/declines slightly positive. I'm leaning for some calls into expiration if we get a pullback in the next couple of days. If not I'll try to stay on the sidelines. Gold was down around a buck. The XAU was down all day but made a late comeback to be down only 3/4 of a point. ABX was down a nickel and NEM was off a little, both on light volume. I'd like to roll out to the November calls on ABX but don't want to be early. Timing, as always, will be the key to profitability. I still think gold has a ways to go. And I still believe the big boys will run these issues up into the expiration on friday. The calls today didn't get cheap enough to buy though. GE was up and that bodes well for the OEX call speculation. Not really looking at anything else right now. Am wondering if there will be a terrorist attack before the election. Haven't heard a lot about that lately. Markets should be a little more active tomorrow...
Friday, October 08, 2004
We waited all week for today's employment number and it came in weaker than expected. The Dow lost 70 points on lighter than usual volume. Advance/declines were about even. I am now looking to get some OEX calls for expiration week. Why? We had every excuse to really sell off today but did not. I think we will see some rally next week. This will be a very short term trade if it happens. With the weak data, the dollar slid today and gold was up around $5. The XAU was up over 2 points but closed on its low. NEM and ABX were up also but not as much as you would expect. The volume was low compared to what we have seen lately and they both also closed on their lows of the day. It could have been a banner day for the gold stocks but they are extended here. I'll look to get long on a pullback in the next couple of weeks. GE has in line earnings and sold off around 30 cents. I'm still in the market for January calls when the price is right. Time for the weekend and a thorough check of the charts before attempting to trade next week.
Thursday, October 07, 2004
Down 114 points on the Dow today and it closed near the low of the day. Volume was good and the advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. I don't own any OEX puts. In retrospect, I should have purchased a few at the close yesterday. There was a short term signal on one of my own indicators. But I did nothing, probably because I was too busy second guessing the sale of my ABX calls. It is always a battle amongst myself. Gold did not move today but the XAU was down almost a point. NEM and ABX were also down but on light volume. I might possibly get some NEM calls for expiration week if things work out that way. I'm looking for ABX to pullback to around 21 and I am going to go out to the November options on that. GE was down today and I did not buy any calls for the earnings report tomorrow. Employment number tomorrow and it will all trade off of that. If today is any indication, it will be a weak number. But we'll find out tomorrow. The ABX trade ended up 240% and the profits were big because I owned twice as much as planned. My account is back in the black and barring some real stupid trades on my part this will be a good year. I am now in the position of having to search for a new trade. Patience and discipline are needed. It's always hard for me. 6 days until expiration and I will probably try and do something. I'll check the charts tonight and take it from there.
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
The Dow continues to climb, up over 60 points today. Even with crude oil hitting a new high. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was OK again. I'm laying off the OEX puts for now. I bailed out of my ABX calls today. I fear that I may have gotten out too soon. They do have 7 days left on them and the XAU closed strong, near the highs of the day. I sold half of them in the morning and then decided to just get out of the whole position. Gold didn't move much today and ABX was up a dime on good volume again. NEM was up 30 cents. The technicals are all way overbought on ABX and have been for a few days. I don't know how much longer that situation could go on. The profits were pretty good, I had twice as much as originally intended. But I can't help but think that this issue will continue to get run up into the expiration next friday. If we do get some type of pullback in the next couple of days I might be tempted to purchase some NEM calls for the last few days. That remains to be seen. Perhaps I could have just held on to half the position to see where it might lead. GE was up today and I was considering some calls before the earnings come out on friday. However the technicals really weren't clear on a buy signal and I haven't been watching it as closely as I should for a trade. Trading is tough. It is not an exact science. It is difficult and it seems I always second guess my moves. Honestly, I was happier with my exit on the recent failed OEX trade last friday than I am with my actions on this trade. I just have the feeling that ABX will ultimately go higher before the expiration. We'll see. Employment number on friday. Will possibly get short tomorrow.
Yesterdays blog never printed. Quick recap. Gold bounced back over $4. The XAU was up 2 1/2 points, NEM up over a dollar and ABX up around 60 cents. The Dow was down about 40 points. Advance/declines were even and the volume was OK. ABX is overbought and I expect some type of pullback. It is probably time to sell but there are 8 days left. The employment number looms large on friday. I'd like to get some OEX puts again but am not totally convinced. I'll be back with todays report later. Hopefully this will print.
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
A mixed market today with the Dow off around 40 points. The OEX and SPX barely moved and were off slightly. The Nasdaq was up a tad. Volume was lighter than yesterday. I really would like to get some OEX puts but am holding off. And fighting myself to do so. I'm thinking the employment numbers on friday will be good to help Bush in his re-election bid. That's just a guess but who knows? The technicals are overbought at this point but could work that off by friday. Sidelines for now. Gold bounced back over $4 today. The XAU was back up 2 1/2 points, NEM was up over a dollar and ABX rose around 60 cents. These are all waaay overbought. There has got to be a pullback. The volume on ABX continues to be robust to the upside and there are 8 days to go on the options. As long as the volume keeps up I'm gonna stick around. ABX just broke the resistance at 21. It should pullback and then resume to the upside. I can't believe it's gone this long. The options have tripled. But nothing has been banked yet. I still haven't gotten the RSI exit signal but it could be soon. It has been a great run so far. My thinking is that the big boys will run gold up into the October option expiration. Again it's just a guess but the volume has been more than I've seen all year practically for ABX. Of course it's nice to have a profit but it will be better to trade it properly in the long run. It's never easy. Tomorrow is another day...
Monday, October 04, 2004
The Dow was up over 20 points on good volume for a monday. Advance/declines were positive. We are getting overbought here and I expect a pullback. I'd like to try the OEX puts again if I can figure out the proper timing. If we rally into fridays employment report, then I'll get short ahead of the report. If not I guess I'll be on the sidelines. Gold got clobbered today, down 5 and a half dollars. The XAU was only off a little more than a point. ABX was somehow unchanged. ABX is holding up well in the face of bad news. This thing has got to go down one of these days. It would actually be better if it did to work off some of the overbought condition. It's at the top of its Bollinger bands on the daily and weekly charts. Volume was solid again today. Money continues to come into this issue. I have know idea why. I'm staying with it for now but it is a tricky call. It is acting very good though, I can't deny that. NEM was only down around 30 cents here today. GE didn't move much. I'll be looking for a spot to buy those OEX puts again but I know I have to be very careful. We'll see what happens.
Friday, October 01, 2004
The Dow zoomed to the upside, up around 110 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Unfortunately my open order for OEX puts was filled right at the open. I caught the high in the contract for the day. In hindsight, I should have canceled the ticket yesterday. The beginning of the quarter money poured in today. I made a mistake. I should have seen it coming. Perhaps my concern for gold took my complete attention away from the OEX. It is a difficult game. I need to get better. I sold the OEX puts for a loss near the close. No sense in holding on, although the time factor would be in my favor. I took a 55% loss in one day. Luckily for me I did not have a lot of money involved with this trade but it is a loss none the less. Not a good way to end the week and approach the weekend. Gold didn't do much today. The XAU was down around a point. NEM was down a little. ABX did not move. The volume slowed on the decline. That's usually a good sign. However ABX has not pulled back, which I would like to see before we get going to the upside again. That's a best case scenario. 2 weeks to go for that one. It is up around 100% at this time. I'm looking for some more upside before exiting. Might get back here this weekend.