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Wednesday, October 13, 2004

The Dow lost 75 points today as oil hit new highs. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was good. So much for buying calls on the OEX. I almost did. However one must remember one of the golden rules. Don't try to get long when the summation index is pointing down. Especially when it is just starting down. Perhaps after it has been in a downtrend for a while you can try to step in but not at the beginning. Gold was off a couple bucks but the XAU got hammered, down almost 3 points. It was down more than 4 at one point. NEM was down around 50 cents but really held up rather well considering. The volume was huge. ABX was off 60 cents and I put in an order for some November calls. Far from the price right now but I'm expecting a bottom to form and that should take a while. There is an uptrend line that hasn't been violated and when it hits that line I would like to be filled. If the line doesn't hold then I will get out with a small loss. But I expect the line to hold. NEM possibly will be the better play this time and I will keep an eye on it. GE was down and I'm still looking out to January there. The basic materials got slammed today and I am guessing it might have been option related for the big boys. I was wrong in which way they'd run it. Final presidential debate tonight and perhaps something will happen. Dollar was higher. I'll try my best to sit on the sidelines before the expiration but you never know.

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