Wednesday, February 28, 2007
The Dow came back up 52 points today. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was the 2nd most ever if not the 1st. All that volume and all we could manage was 52 points. I think we will need to test the low of yesterday at least. Interesting times but tough to trade at this point. I did want to get some OEX calls but the options didn't move much today. Gold was down around $15 but the XAU came back over 2 points. Volume was heavy and ABX did not participate to the upside. So there are crosscurrents there at the moment. I think if I do something there it will be going out to April. But we'll see. Mentally I'm doing fine. I've seen bigger one day declines then yesterday. They're usually buying opportunities but I want to wait this out for a while I think. No trades at the moment but of course I'll be looking.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Well, so much for the OEX calls. Or, maybe not. We had an event today, the Dow down 416 points on the heaviest volume ever. It was a mini-crash. Advance/declines were over 6 to 1 negative. There was a sell-off in China and panic set in. There is something going on here and of course I can't possibly know what it is. Somebody does and it will all come out later I suppose. The put buying had been pretty good for about a week now. Usually that sets up for some type of rally and that is what I was looking for. However in retrospect it was the smart money knowing in advance what China was about to do. China made a reference to starting to charge capital gains taxes and away we went. Markets around the world plummeted. We will most likely see some follow through tomorrow. I am really looking at getting some OEX calls anyway because there will be a bounce. The trouble is you just don't know when it will happen. Tomorrow? Before the end of the week? Next week. Oh it will happen for sure, it's just a matter of when. I'll look at the charts tonight and probably buy some calls at some point this week. Tomorrow most likely unless it's a repeat of today. The volatility has spiked big time. Premiums for all the options are inflated. There is opportunity though. Gold was down only a couple of bucks through it all today but the XAU lost over 10 points. The volume was heavy as you can imagine. I did put in an order for some ABX calls in the last hour as things started to come back a bit in that issue. But I now see that gold is off over $20 in the aftermarket and that won't bode well for the gold shares tomorrow. I might have to re-think things here and go out to April. However there will be a snapback here as well, I just don't know when. So there is a lot to ponder tonight as I try to come up with a gameplan for the rest of the week. Mentally I'm doing OK for now. I'm a bit tired but I will need all my stamina to handle the goings on here for the rest of the week. Hopefully the McClellan oscillator will give some clues later this afternoon. Other technical indicators will be blown out by todays heavy negative action. I have seen things like this before. It is either going to be a quick shake-out type of event or the beginning of a major move down. The money flows at this time of year are positive so I really don't think this will be a drawn out affair. But you never know. There may well be things below the surface that haven't come to light yet. It will be interesting at any rate. There will also be opportunities for those able to take advantage of them. I will try to be one of those traders.
Monday, February 26, 2007
No time to blog today due to other commitments. We are down around 13 points with a minute to go. Advance/declines are slightly negative and the volume is pretty good. Gold was up 3 bucks and the XAU rose a point and three quarters. The volume was good and it seems like there is no keeping gold down. I am still thinking of getting some OEX calls tomorrow. I expect a down day and that should do it for me. But we'll see. More tomorrow.
Friday, February 23, 2007
The Dow lost 38 points on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. It was a down day all day today. We are around the 50 day moving average on the OEX. I'd expect some more weakness early next week but then a rally. That is my scenario right now but I'll have to check the charts over the weekend. I'm thinking of getting long on Tuesday at the moment. Gold was up over $3 but the XAU did not follow and was off a quarter. Both ABX and NEM sold off again on heavy volume. They could be due a rest here. Gold and the gold shares are overbought on a longer term level but keep going higher. I'm not sure what to do here now so it's the sidelines. That could change over the weekend. Not much else to say here today. Not any data out. Mentally I'm feeling good and looking forward to the next trade. Timing is everything it seems. It never is easy either. I'm going to enjoy the weekend and get back at it on Monday.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
The Dow lost 52 points on what looks like extremely light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Not any news out and the overall market was stronger than the Dow again. I don't know what it means and have no OEX trades at the moment. Gold was down a buck and the XAU moved around a bit but ended little changed. ABX came out with decent earnings and ended up selling off on heavy volume. I was fortunate to be in NEM which had good earnings too but rose 3/4 on very heavy volume. It did sell off during the day but I sold my options early for about a 45% gain. Both of these issues are overbought and I would expect them to take a rest here. It looks like they have moved as much as they can for now. The earnings came out good and gold moved higher by $20 yesterday. There is no more good news to come out and move these things higher right now. That is my thinking at the moment. I will perhaps look to get long again when they pull back. NEM is also at some key long term resistance. So I'll try and be patient. Mentally I feel good about bailing out of this trade today. It was a short term thing and I played it that way for a change. I really could have made some good money if I had looked at NEM earlier yesterday instead of ABX. But I salvaged something and that was a good thing. You have got to keep moving and make adjustments to be successful in the game. Especially on the shorter term deals. I'm a bit tired now but will rest up tonight. I'll have to look to next week for the next trade unless something turns up before then.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
The Dow lost 48 points on light to average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, implying higher prices ahead. The OEX puts I wanted yesterday would have been OK but they never really gained that much. Even bad inflation news couldn't keep the market down. The NASDAQ ended higher. The action was in gold which soared $20 today. Incredible. The XAU was up over 5 points. I had an order in early for some ABX calls before the market took off. It wasn't filled. I felt terrible. The earnings are out tomorrow. Both NEM and ABX were up over a buck on heavy volume. I really missed out. So I bought some NEM calls near the close. I had to pay a lot for them but we'll see what happens. It looks and feels like a breakout to me. I hate chasing moves though and these shares are overbought for sure. ABX has had better relative strength but the options that I wanted tripled today. This may not be the greatest trade in the world and tomorrow will tell a lot. If the earnings are decent and we rally at the open I will probably just dump them. But we'll see. It really could have been a great trade if my order would have been filled early. This is the second day in a row when I was there at the right time but the order wasn't priced by me right I guess. It's hard to say. You've got to be able to adjust and recognize exactly what is going on. It isn't easy to do. Anyway gold is at a recent high and I'm wondering if we will try and get to $700. Also NEM is at a longer term down trend line and if it can get through with volume then this trade will work. We'll see what happens tomorrow...
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
The Dow rose 19 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are short term overbought. I tried to get some OEX puts but my order wasn't filled. Inflation data out tomorrow. If we get a rally in the morning, I might try the puts again. We'll see. My hope was for a surprise number to the upside on inflation and a market drop. The fact that my puts didn't get filled leads me to believe that we will have a down day tomorrow. It's a guess. Gold was off about $12 today as oil was weaker. The XAU was off 2 1/2 points which really wasn't all that bad considering. In fact ABX and NEM were both down for the day but closed near their highs. Earnings out on Thursday. Do I want to get long here? I do but the charts are rolling over here. Perhaps the earnings won't matter. Also if we see weakness in the markets, the gold shares could go with it. I'm not sure what I'm going to do but maybe I'll throw a little money at the calls tomorrow. Mentally, I feel fine and I got plenty of rest last night. I have somewhat of an idea of what I'd like to do here, so we'll see what happens. Most likely, I should short any strength tomorrow. As for gold, I might have to let it go here. We'll see...
Friday, February 16, 2007
We didn't do much today for expiration. The Dow was up a couple of points on light volume. Advance/declines were even. I'd like to get some OEX puts for the rest of this month. That is the idea today. I will maybe pick some up when we re-open on Tuesday. We are just about short term overbought. I'll have plenty of time to consider things over the weekend. Gold was up around a buck and the XAU fell a point and a half on light volume. Earnings next week for ABX and NEM and I would really like to have some calls before then. But the technicals are blown out to the upside and have been for a while. Perhaps February was the cycle for this. But I can't help but think the earnings will be good and the stocks will break out. There is nothing changing the direction of gold at the moment either. It is moving higher. The inflation data was benign today. Housing starts were weaker. The dollar was up a touch, which was a mild surprise given the data. So I will have to consider everything over the weekend and take it from there. Mentally I'm a bit confused as to which way to go but my ideas have been correct lately but that means nothing going forward. I'll just have to try and sort things out over the long weekend and get ready for Tuesday.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
The Dow rose 23 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. I stayed out of making an OEX trade. I would like to buy the puts but there really isn't any good signal. Expiration tomorrow and I'll be on the sidelines. A long weekend is approaching also. We are moving to overbought but aren't there yet. Gold was little changed but the XAU rose a point. There is no quit in the gold shares right now. ABX and NEM were both up fractionally and the volume was OK. I almost got some ABX calls for next month but didn't. We are so overbought here but it remains resilient. Earnings out next week. Same for NEM. I might give it a try, the fundamentals are there. The problem is that we have already moved up a lot. We'll see. Mentally I'm not in a good place, having missed out on some good gains this week. It is frustrating but I've got to just keep moving on. It's all I can do. Inflation data out tomorrow. Trading is the most difficult and challenging thing to do sometimes. I recognize this but it doesn't make it any easier. I guess you've just got to keep on moving and see what happens. I'm somewhat pleased that I did not try and trade the last day here. But it pales in comparison to what I should have been doing this week. I'll go from here.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
The Dow climbed another 87 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We are breaking out to new highs in the Dow. There are only 2 days left for the options in the OEX. I am thinking about getting some puts tomorrow, if and when we get short term overbought. Although this isn't the best trade in the world, I believe that it could work. Or I might just sit it out. We'll see what the movement is. Gold was up about $4 today and the XAU rose a point. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume. This is the place to be. The dollar fell today after Fed head Big Ben turned into Gentle Ben. I am going to get some March calls on the next pullback. I think we are due for a rest in these issues before the earnings releases next week. We'll see. But gold just continues to move higher and I think the fundamental case for a weaker dollar is now intact and I am sorry I didn't buy in sooner. I also would have made a ton of money if I would have just held on to the ABX calls I purchased earlier. But there is no looking back really because it won't do any good. Mentally, most of my ideas have been right on lately so I am probably going to take a stab at the OEX puts. I also think the longer term is bullish for gold. Of course that could all change tomorrow but I doubt it. So we'll see what happens.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
I had computer problems again at the open today. That's it. I'm on the back-up computer and I will not be using the other computer again. I will be shopping for a new one. End of story. I don't have time for computer hassles anymore. I should have bought one before when there were problems. The Dow rose 102 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. I could not get any calls this morning. I will now be looking at shorting this thing tomorrow or the next day. However I might just step aside and let the expiration pass. We'll see. The Fed head actually speaks tomorrow so we'll see what that brings. Of course I'm disappointed for not getting the calls but they were way too expensive yesterday. Gold was up a buck today and the XAU rallied 2 1/2. The dollar fell on weak trade data and oil was up. ABX was up on good volume. I could have gotten the calls cheap yesterday but did not. I thought about it but did not pull the trigger. I really need to get my focus back in the markets. There have been numerous opportunities that I have seen but not taken advantage of. Mentally I'm just not fast enough right now it seems. My ideas are good but transferring that to making money isn't happening. I've just got to hang in there because good things will happen if I can make them happen. Hard to say what the rest of the week will bring. Lots of data, that's for sure. I'm not believing the rally today. I will get some OEX puts if we continue to rise. I think that it's probably too late for the gold shares but we'll see.
Monday, February 12, 2007
The Dow was down 28 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are oversold. I do believe that we will bounce within the next couple of days. I am looking at OEX calls but they are still expensive. However I will look to buy some if we get more weakness tomorrow. It's expiration week. There is definitely a chance to make some money. Gold lost 5 bucks today and the XAU was down a point and a half. The volume on the gold shares was light. ABX and NEM both showed losses. I want to get long the March calls but there is a chance that February will work one more time. This is a much tougher call however because gold is not oversold. The dollar was weaker today and oil got clobbered, leading to golds weakness. If these trends continue, gold will correct. I would like to be long going into the earnings on the 22nd. I've said that before. However we have come back to the moving average lines in ABX and NEM so this could be the spot. I am leaning more towards the OEX trade though. But if the market rallies it will most likely take the gold shares with it. The trade number comes out tomorrow and that should do something to the dollar and gold. Also the Fed head, Big Ben is speaking the next couple of days. My guess is that he won't say anything to rile the markets and we will get the anticipated bounce. I could be wrong and usually am. Mentally I'm doing OK. The next trade will be important but it has to be short term if it is going to be for the February cycle. Tough call and it usually is.
Friday, February 09, 2007
It was an interesting day. The Dow lost 57 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Again, as with the last gold trade, I sold my position a day too early. Each time I made profits but they could have been so much better. It's a frustrating game sometimes. My ideas are right on though so I at least have that going for me for a while. We're short term oversold now and should bounce. I'll think about getting some calls over the weekend. I should have been paying more attention today as opportunity was there. We'll see about next week. Gold had an interesting day as well. It was up $9. It is very overbought. However the XAU sold off after an early rise and was slightly negative for the day. That should not happen on a day up big on gold. So there is a divergence in place. This might actually be a shorting proposition but I'm bullish longer term and will look to buy the gold shares on weakness. ABX and NEM were up on good volume at the close, after selling off. The dollar was stronger today too, so there are a lot of crosscurrents going on in this market. The weekend is here and there will be much work to do. Expiration week is upon us and there is a lot of data coming out. I'll have to be ready and develop some type of gameplan. It will be a long weekend after expiration also. Earnings on the gold shares will be out on the 22nd. So there is plenty to think about for the next trade...
Thursday, February 08, 2007
The Dow lost 29 points on good volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. We were down 60 at one point but the market just doesn't want to go down here. I dumped the OEX puts at a small profit. It didn't turn out the way I expected and I didn't feel good about the way the market was reacting. This was a short term trade anyway so I am glad that I'm out but I might want to try again before expiration. We are overbought on a longer term level. Where I should have been was gold which was up over $5 today and continues to rally in the aftermarket. The XAU tacked on 2 and 1/2 points. Both ABX and NEM were higher on good volume. These issues and gold are overbought and staying there. I want to get in here somehow but it really could be too late. Even going out to March looks expensive but I did want to own something before the earnings come out. Trading is tough. It is never easy. Days like today are hard. But you've got to hang in there and keep at it. There will be good trades if you pay attention and stick to it. At any rate I would not be surprised if the overall market went down here shortly. I think the only thing keeping it up right now is the positive expiration bias. I don't think I want to hold anything over the weekend but we'll have to see how tomorrow does.
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
The Dow was pretty much unchanged today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up around 30 then down around 30 and ended up where we started. I did buy some OEX puts. I am already not so sure about this trade. Perhaps I am early but my intermediate term work puts us overbought. The stop-loss order is already in. This is a short term trade and I will be out before the end of the week unless something dramatic happens. I will probably be out tomorrow, one way or the other. Gold was off a little over a buck today and the XAU lost 3/4 of a point. The volume here was light again. I think gold followed oil today as it was down over a dollar. The dollar itself fell a little. I am still looking for some gold share calls but probably not until next week. My focus at the moment is on the OEX. It was weaker than the overall market today which was different. Who knows what will happen tomorrow? It doesn't look like there is any important data out for tomorrow or the end of the week. I suppose we will be trading off of the technicals. Mentally I'm unsure of myself here with regards to this OEX trade. As usual I'm second guessing myself here at the close. It doesn't feel like a good trade. I certainly will be looking for a place to exit as soon as possible unless the market cooperates. We'll see.
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
The Dow was up 4 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are churning here as the market makes up its mind on which way to go. I'm still looking at getting some puts if things work out. I'll have to see some strength tomorrow. It's risky but then again what isn't in this game. Gold was up over $2 today, with the XAU up 3/4. Again there was no volume in the gold shares which has me worried about going much higher here. The dollar was weaker though. I'm on the sidelines here but certainly want to get some calls before the earnings come out later this month. And who knows, perhaps I'll get some calls before the February expiration. But for now I'm mainly looking for OEX puts tomorrow or Thursday if possible. It won't be a long trade, timewise. It shouldn't be. However if we sell off before I might switch to calls by Friday. It's never set in stone. Mentally I'm doing OK I suppose. I need to do a bit more work tonight to get in the right frame of mind for this next trade. If I have to let February go by I will. But I do think there will be an opportunity here and I will try and make some money from it. That's about it for today.
Monday, February 05, 2007
The Dow was up 8 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I am now looking to short the OEX via puts. Wednesday would be the ideal day if we hold up until then. I'm going to buy puts Wednesday if we have any strength that day. We still have to get through tomorrow of course. We are overbought on a short term basis and will be on an intermediate term basis if we hold up a couple more days. Gold was up around $5 today in spite of some dollar strength. It's getting hard to figure out just what is going on here. The XAU didn't move much though, only up about a third of a point. ABX had another good day, up 40 cents. The volume is light in the gold shares though. I'm trying to wait for a pullback here but I think the bigger picture points to higher prices for gold. I'm a bit tired today and did not sleep well last night. Less than 2 weeks left on this option cycle so it does get a bit tricky. Mentally I'm ready for the next trade and think it will be the OEX puts if the market cooperates. Like I said before, there isn't much market data out this week so perhaps the market will move on the technicals alone. We'll see.
Friday, February 02, 2007
The Dow lost 20 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment report was weaker than anticipated and the market really couldn't make up its mind what to do. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. I think a shorting proposition with the OEX will present itself next week, I'm just not so sure it will have staying power. I'll check things over the weekend. Gold got slammed today, down over $11. The XAU didn't do too bad considering, off over 2 points. ABX and NEM were both down a bit but really held up quite well. I still want to get some calls here again but it will be tricky next week. The gold shares seem like they'd like to go higher but they are overbought here. The dollar was stronger today also. I'd really like to go out to March to catch the earnings but the options are expensive. I'll try not to do anything stupid but you never know. I don't think there is a lot of data coming out next week but I'll review things over the weekend and take it from there. Mentally, I will try and put this week behind me and try and make some money from here. 2 weeks are left on the February options. I need to do some more work...
Thursday, February 01, 2007
The Dow rose another 52 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The volume was good. Employment report tomorrow. We are overbought here but it can stay that way and it does sometimes. I'm not looking at puts just yet but there may be an opportunity next week. Gold was up another$5 today. I sold out a day early. ABX had a great day and was up around 70 cents on heavy volume. It is breaking through some resistance at the moving average line. I will look to get the calls again on a pullback if there is one. But I clearly blew it on this trade as well. The volume came in today. Now there was no way that I could have known that but there were over 2 weeks left on the options. I really didn't need to be in a hurry. I think the carryover effect of not getting out on time with the last trade influenced my decision to sell yesterday. Each trade is unique. Gold is overbought here. I almost got some NEM puts which would have been a good thing at the time but I did not act on it. It was to be a very short term deal. I suppose that now I will simply wait until next week and get some ABX calls again if the market allows. Trading is very frustrating sometimes and today is one of those times. The profit I could have made would have met my expectations. Instead, I made some money but am not happy with it. Mentally I'm frustrated and disappointed. I need to put it aside and keep on going here. My ideas are correct at the moment and I need to take advantage of them. It's a very difficult game. That doesn't change. I just need to keep at it and get better, as usual.