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Wednesday, February 21, 2007

The Dow lost 48 points on light to average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, implying higher prices ahead. The OEX puts I wanted yesterday would have been OK but they never really gained that much. Even bad inflation news couldn't keep the market down. The NASDAQ ended higher. The action was in gold which soared $20 today. Incredible. The XAU was up over 5 points. I had an order in early for some ABX calls before the market took off. It wasn't filled. I felt terrible. The earnings are out tomorrow. Both NEM and ABX were up over a buck on heavy volume. I really missed out. So I bought some NEM calls near the close. I had to pay a lot for them but we'll see what happens. It looks and feels like a breakout to me. I hate chasing moves though and these shares are overbought for sure. ABX has had better relative strength but the options that I wanted tripled today. This may not be the greatest trade in the world and tomorrow will tell a lot. If the earnings are decent and we rally at the open I will probably just dump them. But we'll see. It really could have been a great trade if my order would have been filled early. This is the second day in a row when I was there at the right time but the order wasn't priced by me right I guess. It's hard to say. You've got to be able to adjust and recognize exactly what is going on. It isn't easy to do. Anyway gold is at a recent high and I'm wondering if we will try and get to $700. Also NEM is at a longer term down trend line and if it can get through with volume then this trade will work. We'll see what happens tomorrow...

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