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Monday, February 12, 2007

The Dow was down 28 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are oversold. I do believe that we will bounce within the next couple of days. I am looking at OEX calls but they are still expensive. However I will look to buy some if we get more weakness tomorrow. It's expiration week. There is definitely a chance to make some money. Gold lost 5 bucks today and the XAU was down a point and a half. The volume on the gold shares was light. ABX and NEM both showed losses. I want to get long the March calls but there is a chance that February will work one more time. This is a much tougher call however because gold is not oversold. The dollar was weaker today and oil got clobbered, leading to golds weakness. If these trends continue, gold will correct. I would like to be long going into the earnings on the 22nd. I've said that before. However we have come back to the moving average lines in ABX and NEM so this could be the spot. I am leaning more towards the OEX trade though. But if the market rallies it will most likely take the gold shares with it. The trade number comes out tomorrow and that should do something to the dollar and gold. Also the Fed head, Big Ben is speaking the next couple of days. My guess is that he won't say anything to rile the markets and we will get the anticipated bounce. I could be wrong and usually am. Mentally I'm doing OK. The next trade will be important but it has to be short term if it is going to be for the February cycle. Tough call and it usually is.

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