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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

We ended the month, quarter and first half of the year on a down note today as the Dow lost 82 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. July begins tomorrow and I would expect some positive money flows into the market. The employment report comes out on Thursday. We'll have to see what happens. We worked off some of the short term overbought conditions today. If the recent activity or lack there of is any indication of what we have to look forward to this summer, it will be slower than slow. Not a great trading environment. Gold took a hit today and was off $13. The XAU lost 4 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all off around 1 1/2 on light volume. So is this an opportunity to get long the gold shares again? That is the question. The dollar was a bit stronger today. It's a tough call. If I do something here I should probably go out to the August option contracts. But again, it could just be a slow and boring summer trading season. It would be hard to make any money in that type of scenario. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'll be keeping an eye on the gold shares and the overall market going forward. But as of now it will take a pretty good set up or signal for me to take a stand.

Monday, June 29, 2009

The Dow gained 91 points on light volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. Today had summer written all over it. No volume and even though it was a good up day, it may not mean anything. Short week and the employment report on Thursday due to the holiday. We are overbought on the short term here but not medium term as yet. No trades in the OEX here for me. Gold was flat and so were the gold shares with the XAU barely changed. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The dollar didn't do much either. Yes, I'd like to go long the gold shares if they pull back. But it is summer and huge moves are not expected, really. My thinking is that perhaps just sitting on the sidelines might be the prudent thing to do. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired did not sleep well. So here we are and the best course of action may be to do nothing for a while. That isn't always easy to do. I suppose I will simply wait and see what happens. You don't lose any money but you don't make any either. I don't have a sense of urgency to do anything though. And even when I have had a sense of urgency I haven't been able to pull through on it lately.

Friday, June 26, 2009

The Dow lost 34 points on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. Market breadth is telegraphing higher prices going forward. The overall market is stronger than the Dow. Let me say this about volume. It's light but that is expected for the summer. So what passes for average volume is really lighter than usual. And if it is light, it is really light. End of the month and quarter next week. Also a holiday week. I doubt that I'll be looking to take a position on but you never know. Gold was up a buck or so and the XAU lost 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar was weaker and it didn't do anything for gold. However the gold shares had a great week so we'll see if there is any follow through to the upside next week. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good for a change. Got a decent nights sleep. It's a summer weekend on the horizon. I'll go over the charts this weekend and go from there. For now it's time for a break.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Finally we saw a decent up move today. The Dow rose 172 points on average volume. Advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. This is what I was expecting a couple of days ago. There had to be a good positive move to the upside since we were so oversold. It took longer than I thought. The key is where we go from here. Perhaps it is the beginning of the summer rally. We'll have to see what the summation index reads later tonight. It's possible that the recent decline has ended. Gold was up $5 and the XAU rose 5 3/4 points. ABX and GG were both up about 1 1/2, while NEM gained a buck. Volume was light but you can't argue with price. I've missed yet another opportunity in the gold shares. It is beginning to sound like a broken record. I did have an order to buy in Monday night but it wasn't to be. The gold shares are leading gold here and I think this rally is for real despite the light volume. Perhaps the Monday decline was the downside blow off. It is frustrating to miss out on profits but you have to keep moving. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. So where do I go from here? End of the month coming up next week and it's a short week too. I suppose that I'll just wait it out on the sidelines for now. It is the toughest game in the world and I've been playing it very poorly. Confidence is one of the keys and mine is shot right now. And on it goes. We'll see if there is follow through to the upside tomorrow.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

We got the Fed out of the way as the Dow lost 23 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. I am surprised that we haven't seen a big up move from these oversold levels. It's worrisome I think. If we can't get a decent move to the upside when we are very oversold it could mean trouble. But I could be wrong. It's interesting to say the least. We'll see what happens. Gold was up $10 today and the XAU rose 4 points. ABX up 1/2, GG up a buck and NEM up 3/4. Volume was average for lately. I canceled my open order for the ABX August calls. I'll perhaps try again in the future. The gold shares have begun to outperform gold again and that is positive for them going forward. GG seems to be giving the most bang for the buck as of now. The dollar was a bit stronger today and gold rose anyway. I'll keep an eye on things. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. I'm wary of where we go from here. Summation index still pointing down. Not much data coming out for the rest of this week, so I suspect things may slow down from here. It's summertime. On to tomorrow.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

It's a waiting game as the Dow lost 16 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. All eyes are on the Fed announcement tomorrow. I don't know what will be said but we are oversold and I expect a decent bounce as I said yesterday. I would be very surprised if we were not up pretty good tomorrow. But hey, it's the market and anything can happen. Gold was up about $3 and the XAU rose 5 1/3. The gold shares outperformed. Perhaps it's a sign of things to come. Or not. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1 1/2 on light volume. My order for ABX calls wasn't filled and I'm leaving it open for now. The dollar got whacked today and I would have liked to have seen a better move in gold itself. That could mean that a rise in gold is in the future and not something imminent. But that's a guess. It is the summer too and a slowdown in everything can be expected. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So it's the Fed tomorrow and after that there isn't anything else to move things this week. Next week is short with the end of the month and quarter followed by the July 4th holiday. So perhaps it's a time to just sit on your hands and wait for a good signal. The problem is that I think we are getting one for the gold shares at the moment. So we'll see.

Monday, June 22, 2009

An interesting Monday as the Dow got clobbered and lost 200 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. We are now very oversold here. I would expect a decent bounce in the next couple of days. Summation index still pointing down though. Fed announcement on Wednesday and that will most likely be a market mover. The S&P 500 needs to hold 880 or this will be a big decline. That's my outlook at the moment. Gold was off about $15 and the XAU followed, off 10 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all down over $2. Volume was light. The dollar was a bit stronger. I placed an overnight order for some ABX August calls. ABX is oversold and could be at the end of 5 wave down move. We are also just about at an important Gold/XAU ratio number. I could be wrong. A lot depends on the wording of the Fed. That's part of the play here as well. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling good after a nice weekend. Plenty of rest and now it's back to the game. Sometimes the market acts strange the Monday after expiration. That could explain today as well. So we'll see where we go from here but a bounce is expected.

Friday, June 19, 2009

A mild expiration Friday as the Dow lost 16 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Now it's a waiting game for the Fed rate announcement on Wednesday. Summation index still pointing down. I'll be on the sidelines as far as I can tell for now. Gold was up a buck but the XAU rose 4 points. Perhaps now we have reached the end of the move down in the gold shares. But that's just a guess and my guesses have been pretty poor lately. ABX was up 3/4, GG up over a buck and NEM added 1/2. Volume was light. Technically the gold shares are oversold on a daily basis, neutral on a weekly basis. There is unrest in Iran and the dollar was weaker today but gold itself didn't do anything. I will try the gold shares again at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept enough for a change. Losses are part of the game. You have to brush yourself off and keep on going. That's what I'm going to do. The first 6 months this year have been horrendous for me but there is still half the year left. I don't have any trades on the horizon at the moment. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. Summer is upon us and the markets have a tendency to slow down. The first 2 weeks of June were like that. I'll try and keep that in mind going forward. It's a summer weekend and time to relax.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Well we did have a positive day as the Dow rose 58 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. I was really expecting something like a 100 point up day. But we didn't get it. Perhaps it means that the market is weaker than I thought. Summation index pointing down and you can't fight that at the moment. Expiration tomorrow and I suppose anything can happen. We haven't had a lot of volatility though. Gold was off a couple bucks and the XAU lost 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The shares were higher early in the day but sold off. I dumped the GG calls for about an 80% loss. Not a lot of money in that trade thankfully. It was break even for about 30 seconds in the morning and then dropped fast. I blew it once again. Perhaps I was a bit too tired but whatever the excuse my trading has failed lately. The dollar was stronger today but gold itself didn't sell off that much. We'll have to see what that means going forward. Mentally I'm still in a funk. It's been a tough first half of the year and I need to regroup. The markets won't wait for me though. Summer is here and the trading could get pretty slow. I suppose it will give me a chance to get it together for the second half of the year. It won't be easy but it can be done.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

A back and forth type of day as the Dow lost 7 points on better volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are oversold and I would have to say that tomorrow will be positive. I would be surprised if we did not end up for the day. That said, the summation index is pointing down. 2 days to go before expiration so perhaps we'll get some volatility. Gold was up $3 but the XAU lost 3/4. The gold shares were down for most of the day and ended up little changed. Volume was light. The gold shares tracked the overall market. The dollar was weaker and it didn't move things to the upside. That is troublesome. I've still got the GG calls that are losers. They are out of the money and I'm lucky they even have a bid really. It's going to take a big move in gold just to have a small loss here. I'm only holding them at this point because I expect strength in the stock market tomorrow. It just wasn't a good trade but it could have been. I've seen crazy things happen in gold though so we'll see. But it's dead. Mentally I'm tired once again as it has been a get up early type of week. I don't see any trades on the horizon when I'm through with this one and it may be time to step back and take a break. It is summer after all. We'll see.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Another downer as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The index lost 107 points on light volume again. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The trend appears to have changed. The summation index has rolled over. We will be short and medium term oversold if we are lower again tomorrow. I expect a decent move to the upside within the next 2 days. It will be just a bounce if it occurs. I don't think I'll try and play it but perhaps. Gold was up $5 today but the XAU only gained 2/3. We were much higher early on in the day which gave me a chance to sell the GG calls at a profit but I held on. It was foolish to be sure. ABX was up 1/2, GG up 3/4 and NEM barely managed a gain. They were all higher early as we got the bounce that I anticipated. But I didn't sell the calls when I should have. It is a repeat of the previous trade where I knew that action on my part was required and I couldn't pull it off. My trading is definitely in a funk. Back to gold, the dollar was weaker today despite good economic news. Inflation data out again tomorrow. Mentally I'm tired, not enough sleep again. Very disappointed in my performance today. I think that the short term trades just aren't my style at the moment. You really have to be sharp and right now I am dull. I should probably stick with the position trades because they don't move as fast. Especially right now when my trading is horrible as I've stated before. This year has been tough on me for sure as we approach the halfway mark. 3 days left on the options and I don't have a good feeling about how this GG trade is going to end.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Finally some movement in the averages as the Dow dropped 187 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. I've been waiting for this downdraft for 2 weeks and it has finally arrived. I don't think we are going to just head straight down from here but you never know. Of course now I don't own the OEX puts. But what can you do? Gold lost over $13 and the XAU shed 5 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all down a bit over a buck. Volume was nothing special. I bought some GG calls for this week. We are oversold on most of the technical indicators and at the lower Bollinger band. The 50 day moving average has just about been reached as well. This is strictly a short term trade. I'm out tomorrow if it can get into the black. Inflation data Tuesday and Wednesday. The dollar was very strong today and that along with the overall market weakness affected the gold shares. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling tired. Up early today and not enough sleep. Perhaps I should have just stayed on the sidelines but I think this trade has a chance. I could be wrong and have been often this year. So we'll see how things open tomorrow and go from there.

Friday, June 12, 2009

It was another lackluster day as the Dow gained 28 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. It seems as if the summer doldrums are upon us. It's been a sideways affair for a while now. No the best of trading times to be sure. I suppose the best strategy here would be to stay on the sidelines. Expiration week coming up and loads of data to boot. Perhaps we'll get some movement then. I'm thinking of doing something next week. We'll see. Gold took another hit today as the dollar rallied. The precious metal was down $20. The XAU fell 4 1/2. ABX was off 2/3 while GG and NEM each dropped more than a buck. Volume was light. I might try the gold shares next week as we are oversold and inflation news will be coming out. The trouble is that if inflation is higher than expected it could support the dollar and negate the positive influence on gold. It's just a guess. I'll have to mull things over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing OK. Yesterdays loss is history and it is back to the drawing board. I think we'll be heading higher on Monday but after that , who knows? I'll be checking things over the weekend. The risk will be in focus more so next week since it is the expiration. But perhaps I can find something to take advantage of. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

The Dow rose 32 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We were up 125 at one point but sold off in the last hour. I dumped the OEX puts for a 75% loss. I couldn't hold them any longer and should have just gotten out yesterday as I said before. It's always a battle with myself and it shouldn't be. It was the biggest dollar loss of the year so far. I would not be surprised if we go lower from here but the puts were too far out of the money with 6 days left. I might try again next week depending on what happens between now and then. A better strategy may be to just hit the sidelines. Gold was up $6 as the dollar took a pretty good hit. It was interesting that we didn't rise further. The XAU lost around 1/2. ABX and NEM were down 1/3 while GG gained that much. Volume was light as it has been lately. The dollar was down sharply and gold did not rally as it has lately. That says to me that gold is not about to start an up move here but I could be wrong. And have been a lot this year. Mentally I'm feeling OK even with taking the loss today. Expiration is next week and the risk is getting higher for the June cycle. We are almost through he first half of the year and my results have been terrible. I'll have to do better from here. We'll see about tomorrow and go from there.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

The Dow lost 24 points today on better volume. Advance/declines were negative. A late day comeback occurred as we were down over 100 at one point. I put in a late limit order to sell the OEX puts but it doesn't look like it will get filled. I probably should have just bailed out at the market. We have basically been in a sideways going nowhere market. Puts or calls won't do well in such an environment. I can't wait forever on this trade and I'll have to bail out tomorrow. Gold was flat today and the XAU lost a point. ABX was off a buck while GG and NEM had fractional losses. Volume was good for ABX but light on the others. No gold trades for now but the gold shares are getting oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not happy with my reactions today as it looks like the market will just not sell off. Perhaps there is so much liquidity that has been pumped into the system that it has to go somewhere. I don't know what is keeping the market up at this point. Sideways is how we've been moving and perhaps that is the trend for the summer. Retail sales out tomorrow and that should be a mover. Unless we get a huge drop I'll be banking a loss.

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Another day of indecision as the Dow lost a point on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. It appears the summer doldrums are upon us. The volume is lackluster at best. The lack of movement has killed my OEX puts. I should say lack of movement to the downside. I'm giving them until tomorrow and if we don't see something after the Fed minutes then I'm out for a loss. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU was flat. The dollar had a bad day but gold didn't move which could signal a change in perceptions here. ABX and GG were off about 1/2 while NEM was up 1/3. Volume light here as well. Nothing doing for gold for me now. I'm going to wait a while. I still like the gold shares again at some point. Mentally I'm doing OK. Could have slept more. Had computer issues today and that didn't help. Website specific problems. So it looks like another losing trade here and that's just the way it goes. 8 days until expiration and if I get out of this trade perhaps I'll try another. Loads of data out next week. Of course the risk ramps up as well. We'll see what happens tomorrow and take it from there.

Monday, June 08, 2009

We opened lower, were down over 100 points, came back in the last hour to be up 50 and closed the day up a point. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. We are basically moving sideways here and it's killing my OEX puts. They are now solidly in the red. An exit strategy is now in play. I would like to wait for the Fed minutes on Wednesday if possible. The negative RSI divergence is still in play but it hasn't meant anything yet. Gold was down again, off $10. The gold shares did not follow with the XAU up 1/2. The gold shares were much lower early in the day and came all the way back. ABX was up 1/2, GG and NEM were down but off their lows. Volume was light. Perhaps today was the day to try the calls there. The dollar was a bit higher today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So what to do now? I certainly can't sit in this trade forever. Tomorrows action should be interesting unless it is just another light volume sideways affair. We'll see. No real news coming out. Volume is slowing for now. So we'll see where it goes.

Friday, June 05, 2009

We were up, we were down and we ended up about where we started. The Dow gained 12 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. The employment report showed more job losses but not as much as expected. The market couldn't make up its mind what to do. My OEX puts are showing a loss and now the time factor is coming into play since they are so far out of the money. The RSI is still showing the negative divergence and I'm a believer in that. I'll ponder things over the weekend. Gold took another hit as the dollar had a good day on the job numbers. The precious metal lost $20 and the XAU dropped 6 3/4. ABX and GG lost 1 1/2, while NEM fell 2 1/2. Volume was average. The weekly charts for the gold shares will turn bearish for now. I'm still a believer in the gold shares but will stay on the sidelines until we get oversold. Perhaps the August or September options. Mentally I'm a bit tired did not sleep enough. I would have liked to have seen a sell off in the market today but it continues to hang on. The volume wasn't anything that great though. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The problem is that things could slow down and my OEX puts will wither away. I'll check to see what reports are coming out next week to be potential market movers and go from there. The weekend has arrived and it's time for a break.

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 75 points. Volume looks to be about the same as yesterday. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. It's beginning to look more like tomorrow could be an up day as there was no follow through to the downside today. My OEX puts are slightly in the red. I'm getting the feeling that this trade isn't going to work but we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. Still a negative divergence on the RSI as I explained yesterday. But that could change with another strong up day. Gold came back as well, up over $15. ABX, GG and NEM were all back up a buck or so. Volume was lighter however. That doesn't mean we can't go higher here but perhaps we are finally running out of steam. That's a guess and we'll just have to wait and see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Nothing left to do but wait for the employment report. We'll have to see the markets reaction. My puts are well out of the money so unless we see a drop in the market, it could be time to just dump them. 2 weeks to go after tomorrow. We'll see what Friday brings.

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

The Dow lost 65 points today on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We were down twice as much but came back in the last hour. The market is showing a lot of resilience here and perhaps the case for being short is the wrong one. I'm still going to wait for the employment report on Friday. My OEX puts are in the black but not by much. To far out of the money I suppose. It's possible that there is a negative divergence on the S&P 500 RSI and if that is the case then the puts will work. We'll know within the next couple of days. Gold finally took a breather today as the dollar had a snap back. Gold lost almost $20 and the XAU fell 8 2/3. ABX down 1 1/2, GG lost 2 1/2 and NEM dropped 2. Volume was average. I'm going to keep an eye on gold as usual but I don't think I'll play it here. That could change of course. It's still very overbought even with todays action. Mentally I'm still not 100% as I'm fighting a slight cold or something. It's simply a waiting game for Friday at this point. That will be the key in my opinion. If we close higher for the week the uptrend will remain intact. If we close lower it sets up an interesting weekly chart and we could be in for a sustained drop. That's my guess at this point.

Tuesday, June 02, 2009

A day to consolidate the gains as the Dow gained 19 points on average volume. Advance/declines were higher. My overnight order for the OEX puts was filled in the morning. They are at about break even. Another up day tomorrow and we will be short term overbought. It is a risky trade but then again they all are. I'm going to wait for the employment report on Friday regardless. So we'll see what happens. Gold was up $4 today and the XAU gained 3 1/2. ABX was uo 1, GG up 2 and NEM up 1/2. Volume was heavy to the upside after yesterdays drop. The dollar lost ground again. The gold trade continues to work. The money continues to flow there. Perhaps I should have stepped up yesterday but if my idea of a drop in the stock market here is correct, the gold shares will initially follow I presume. Not to mention we are very overbought with respect to the gold shares and have been for a while. This won't last forever. Mentally I'm a bit tired. Did not sleep well and was woken up early. So a new trade has begun. Unless we get an upside breakout from here, which I doubt, I'll be waiting for Friday morning. We'll see how it goes.

Monday, June 01, 2009

Another week that starts off with a bang as the Dow gained 221 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. We have broken out to the upside from the consolidation of the past few weeks. Summation index to the upside. It's hard to argue with any of that. We are about at resistance though from the 200 day moving averages on some of the indices. I have an open order in for some OEX puts but it's a risky trade. I'd like to be short ahead of the employment report. We'll be short term overbought by Wednesday if this type of market action keeps up. Gold was flat and the XAU dropped 2 1/3. ABX and NEM were both off about a buck and GG lost over 2 1/2. Volume was pretty good to the downside. Perhaps the run up in the gold shares is finally coming to a close. Too early to know for sure. I'd like to perhaps still play them in the June cycle if they get oversold. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Where do we go from here? It was a nice upside breakout today and I'd expect to see some follow through tomorrow. It really doesn't look like a market that you want to be short. However that could all change by the end of the week. We'll see what happens tomorrow.