Monday, October 31, 2005
The Dow was up over 35 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We were up higher but sold off in the last hour. Could be end of month related but I'm not sure. GE was down around 20 cents after being higher also. This one really has to get going or it's over. It isn't moving higher when the overall market is and that is troublesome. I don't think this trade is going to work but I've said that before. Less than 3 weeks to go now. Gold was down big on Monday over $7. The dollar rallied. Somehow the XAU ended up in positive territory which is encouraging. But again it could just have been some end of month stuff. I'll know more tomorrow. Cutting this short today because I took the last 3 hours off today and I'm going out to dinner. More tomorrow...
Friday, October 28, 2005
The Dow reversed course again and was up over 170 points on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. This thing just keeps going back and forth. It will break out eventually and I'm thinking it will be to the upside. At least that's what I'm thinking today. GE got back a little today but the options I own are still losers. 3 weeks left and I think that this will be close. I probably need to get out when I can. I was early and haven't traded GE well all year. Gold was down a couple bucks, the XAU fell but then came back and was higher on the day. That is a good sign. The calls I own are still in the black. But anything can happen and we are close to the uptrend line. If that breaks then this trade is dead. But it is holding for now and that was the basis for this trade so I am holding for now. Anything can happen. I feel rested for a change and the weekend is here. I am taking part of Monday off to head up to the mountains and clear my head out. Mentally I need a break and will do some work tonight and then just call it quits for a few days. My discipline needs work and I have to get back to consistent reading of the blue book. These things must be done for success. It doesn't just happen. You've got to make it happen. I'm working on it...
Thursday, October 27, 2005
The Dow lost 115 points and the volume was good. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. The market cannot get going. Summation index now pointing down. I can't figure it out and I don't know what to say. GE held up rather well but my options are losers and it doesn't look like that will change anytime soon. The XAU gapped open higher and lost all of its gains. Gold was up a couple of bucks. Negative action for sure. Tomorrow is important to see if the recent lows hold. My calls are still making money but that could change too. I'm tired today and need to get a good nights sleep tonight. My mind is a little slow and that just won't do. I need to get back to the basics and discipline, discipline, discipline. It's the only way. Pressed for time again today...
Wednesday, October 26, 2005
The Dow lost over 30 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Looks like more sideways action for now. Can't seem to break out one way or the other. Who know, maybe we'll start to drop again. I have no idea. GE was down and the options are losing money and not moving. Gotta see something happen there soon but at this rate, nothing will happen except for more losses. Gold was down a little today but the XAU lost almost 3 points. My calls are still profitable but barely so. I had the order ready to sell them but did not enter it. That could have and probably will be a mistake. It was a pretty big turnaround today in the XAU, almost 5 points. And not in the direction that I needed. I still feel that the trendline will hold but it won't with another day like today. Perhaps I am wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. But sometimes you've got to believe in yourself. I maybe could have sold out today and then bought them back cheaper, later. But that's just a guess. It is a tough game, an unforgiving game. Mentally I'm tired and I haven't been feeling well but I'm doing better now. Will have to see what the next 2 trading days bring. That is the key for now...
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
The Dow lost 7 points on increased volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down a lot more but came back in the final hour. No pending trades there. GE was down again and the options are not doing any better. I'm holding for now but I might have to think about where to take the loss. It is only Tuesday but this has got to start to get something going to the upside. Gold was up over $7 today but the XAU didn't do that well, only up a point and a half. The calls are doing good but it looks like it wants to head back down here. I'm holding on for higher prices in the next few weeks but that could be wrong too. Probably should have some type of stop-loss order in but I don't. My mind is tired. Not feeling well lately. Need to get some rest. Still believing it will not be a down year but the gains could be muted. They will be. Nothing more for today.
Monday, October 24, 2005
The Dow blasted off up 170 points today. The volume wasn't all that great but it was a Monday. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The McClellan oscillator should be moving into positive territory today. I think the decline is over but I don't expect a straight up move from here. I do think we will rally once the Fed meeting gets out of the way. GE was up a little but my options are still under water. Plenty of time to go but I don't know. Gold was down a couple bucks but the XAU remained strong and was up a couple points. Those calls are in the black. Perhaps should have sold them here because we are short term overbought. But I'm waiting for higher prices and I think that will happen in the next 4 weeks. I could be wrong though and there-in lies the problem with trading. Ya just never know. I'm not feeling well physically so I am cutting this short today. Mentally I'm doing as good as can be expected at this point.
Friday, October 21, 2005
The Dow lost another 65 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive though. Perhaps the move was expiration related. GE was down a few cents and the options I own are losing money. The are now cheap enough that I have the inclination to buy a few more. Could be a good move if we hold here and rally. Or it could be stupid. I don't think that I've done well in GE this year. I'll have to check the charts and the records. Gold bounced over 6 dollars today and the XAU was up almost 3 points. So far the trend line is holding. My calls there are profitable and there is plenty of time to go. The technicals are oversold too so this could turn out to be a decent trade. Or not. I get the feeling that a base will need to be built here and that could take a while. But I think that over time, as long as the uptrend line holds, this will be a winner. Physically I'm tired as I did not get a lot of sleep last night. That is affecting me mentally as my mind is groggy. Luckily there was not much thought for todays session on my part. I'm glad the weekend is here, I need to rest...
Thursday, October 20, 2005
Volatility has returned. Perhaps the lows won't hold after all. Or it could be just an expiration phenomenon. The Dow lost 133 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Crazy game. GE was off over 50 cents and the November calls I own are now losing money. I'm still a believer though. Long time relatively speaking there. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU actually fell hard and got to the uptrend line. I purchased some XAU November calls. It is now or never for this trade. My thinking is that the trendline will hold. If it doesn't, I'm out with a small loss. Hopefully, if I don't do something stupid. I perhaps could have gotten a little better price on the entry but you never know with those crooks on the Philly exchange. I don't really like trading there but I wanted a broader scope than just NEM or ABX this time. We'll see. Had to do it though because it was what I was waiting for. Oil seems to be breaking down here and perhaps gold will too. I don't know. It kinda has the feel like it could roll over and this trade will be a loser but we will have to wait and see. Another question is if the market itself will hold up here. Tomorrow will be interesting...
Wednesday, October 19, 2005
Well I thought that the recent lows would not hold. I was wrong. The Dow opened lower, bounced off those lows and gained over 125 points. It was the best day in a while. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. I'll now say the decline is over. I don't think we will go straight up but I do think the year will end positive. GE was up around 40 cents but my call options aren't doing much. I think this trade will work too. Gold got pounded today, down over eight bucks at one point. The XAU was down over 3 points but recovered. I almost bought some XAU calls for October when it was down there but did not. There are only 2 days left on them. Also looked at some OEX calls this morning but did not do that either. Just did not take the chances but in retrospect should have. I'm not a short term trader by nature though. I will get long when the XAU gets to the trendline and it got close today. Might take another week to hit it. We'll see. Mentally I'm trying to focus. I did read the blue book today and that's a start. I need to get a good nights sleep again and perhaps that will happen tonight. Otherwise I guess it's just a waiting game for now.
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
Today we lost over 60 points on increased volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We are going to head back down and test the recent lows and it doesn't look like they will hold at this point. I had a chance to get short early this morning but did not take the chance. I should have. The only good thing I can say was that I at least dumped the calls yesterday. The losses would have been greater if I had held on. GE has held up well lately and when this thing comes back GE could be a relative strength leader. Or we could just completely fall apart and it won't matter. I still believe in the year ending in 5 theory and I think we will be positive by December 31st. Gold was down a bit and the XAU lost over 2 points. I need to see where that trendline is because we could get there shortly. Hopefully it will hold, time will tell. I probably will not attempt any more trades this week but ya never know for sure. Mentally I feel good about my view of the market and it has been right on lately. But I need to make some money with these ideas. I'm not too tired and there isn't much else on my mind now that the dentist is out of the way for now. I'm going to have to get back into the good habits required for success. I'll try and start tomorrow with the blue book. I've got to find the time...
Monday, October 17, 2005
The Dow was up 60 points today on positive advance/declines. Volume was average. I sold the OEX calls I had for a loss. 20% and 5% respectively. I just could not afford to take the risk that tomorrow would be a down day and I would lose a lot more. My mistake here was that I had too much money in one trade. Overleveraged. My entry was a bit early and even though we have moved up over 100 points since the purchase it hasn't made any money. Of course I will be kicking myself if we open strong tomorrow, which is a possibility with good IBM numbers after the close. But what can ya do? The overall market has lagged the Dow the past two up-days and that isn't a positive sign. The volume hasn't been as strong going higher either. So I'm out and we'll see where I go from here. Still holding some November GE calls at breakeven. Want to keep them for a while. The XAU popped today for a couple points but I am going to wait for the XAU to get to the uptrend line if I can. Inflation report due out tomorrow and that will move things also. Sometimes you just have to get out of things that aren't working, no matter how much you want it to be right. I could not take the chance that tomorrow will open way down and my calls would be clobbered. Perhaps I will buy them again cheaper before the end of the week. But my work says that there is no great rally coming up now. I could be wrong. Maybe tomorrow I'll be glad I sold today. We'll see. Mentally, I'm OK but my mind is on the dentist tomorrow. Otherwise I'm fine but still need to get back in the habit of doing the day to day things that work for me. Like reading the blue book every morning. It needs to be done. Discipline cannot be emphasized enough.
Friday, October 14, 2005
We got a weak bounce today with the Dow up 70 points. Volume wasn't all that great but the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The daily candlestick chart looks constructive with a doji buy signal but that could change. I still am holding the OEX calls at a loss. Probably need to get out on Monday if we have any strength. I'll check the other numbers this weekend. Sold the GE October calls at around a 60% loss. Earnings were fine but the stock couldn't get moving that much in this environment. I guess it's better than taking a 100% loss but it still sucks. Gonna hold the Novembers for a while. The XAU sank early as gold was down but they both came back later on. Still going to get long the XAU or some gold shares when it gets to the uptrend line. Seems like there is interest in buying the gold shares on any dip. But for now I've got to focus on the overall market and specifically the OEX. I don't want this to turn into a big loser too. Mentally I'm tired and drained from the week. I could use a break. I really probably need to step back again and go over just exactly what is going on here. This is the toughest game in the world and you just have to be mentally prepared to deal with it. But for now it's time to rest and regroup for next week.
Thursday, October 13, 2005
The Dow was basically unchanged today on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative though. We are extremely oversold. The calls I purchased are losing money. I expect a snapback but there is a chance this whole thing could collapse also. Tomorrow is important. GE announces its earnings and there is an inflation report. I expect anything at this point. I will get the hell out of these OEX calls if I get a chance. I will also exit the October GE calls if I can. When the indicators say one thing and the market does another then I have nothing to go on that is legit. I need to recognize this tomorrow and act accordingly. Gold did not move but the XAU was down big at one point but came back to cut its losses. I think it is a function of the Refco firm having trouble and hedge fund liquidation to meet cash calls. I will get long gold when it gets to the trendline, either for November or December. But right now the focus has to be on GE and the overall market. Mentally I'm a little tired and worried about a lack of a bounce here. My mind is focused and I will be up early tomorrow but the market will do what it wants. Interesting day ahead. Could be really good or a disaster. All eyes on GE.
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
The Dow lost another 36 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. I bought some OEX calls. I got some early and then bought a couple more later. My work tells me that we have to bounce here unless we crash. I don't anticipate that but you never know. We'll see tomorrow. But you have to step up when the time comes and I think the time is now. The OEX moves fast though and I'll have to stay on my toes. Bought some November GE calls also. Earnings on Friday and we'll see about that also. Missed on the XAU puts. Had an order in early and it didn't get filled. The XAU ended up down around 2 1/2 points. I do not like missing the move but I was concentrating on the OEX I suppose. Gotta get better than that. I will probably wait for the XAU to come back to the uptrend line and get long there. Don't know, not sure. Only thing for certain is that I missed this down move. Mentally I'm doing fine and really think the OEX trade will work out. Feeling confident about this trade. Have done the work and unless something out of the ordinary happens, it will be a good one.
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
The Dow was up 14 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative though. I'm thinking of getting some calls tomorrow as a bounce is due. I will look to buy weakness. At least that's the plan for now. But the internals have been weak. We do have a divergence on the McClellan oscillator and some other indicators are oversold. I'm pretty sure that this will work. Short-term anyway. GE was down around a quarter today. Gonna wait for the earnings on Friday. Gold didn't do much and the XAU was down a bit. Would like to get some puts here and did have an order in today but it wasn't filled. Not sure about this one but the candlestick chart looks toppy. We'll see. Hard to short it here if the overall market is about to rally. Mentally I'm tired and need to get some rest. Feeling good about buying some OEX calls here. Feels like the same call that the puts that would have worked about a week ago. Maybe do it tomorrow. Trade number on Thursday and inflation report due out on Friday. Could get interesting. Gotta be careful and remain disciplined to be successful. Will try not to chase anything.
Monday, October 10, 2005
The Dow lost over 50 points and volume was pretty good for a Monday. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I'd like to get long before Friday. Some OEX calls might be in order. If we et a non-conformation from the McClellan oscillator, I'll be purchasing some. That remains to be seen. GE didn't do much and the earnings are on Friday. We'll see how it acts going into that. Probably will hold on until then. Not sure though. Could be a sell the news event. Gold didn't do much today and neither did the XAU. Not a clear signal here but I did put in an order for some puts today. Did not get filled. Not completely sure that I want to trade this anymore for now. We'll see. I've got to check the charts and the economic calendar. Mentally I'm doing fine today. My mind is clear and ready to go. Opportunity is here until expiration. I've got to take advantage of it. Not a time to be lazy.
Friday, October 07, 2005
The Dow gained 5 points today and the volume was lighter than lately. Advance/declines were positive but the new lows were higher than the new highs. Mixed signals. I would still like to get long here with some OEX calls but am not sure. Employment came out and was stronger than expected. That sent the dollar higher but gold rallied also. The XAU was up almost 3 points. I bailed out of my XAU puts for around a 25% profit. The profit was much better a couple days ago and I should have sold then. I'm not happy with that trade. Will have to check things over the weekend to see what to do next. My trading leaves much to be desired. GE rallied again on good volume and the calls I own that were worthless at the beginning of the week are now back where I bought them. This trade now looks like it might work if the earnings are decent next Friday. Did not step up and get some November calls when I had the chance earlier this week also. My order did not get filled. Looks like I missed it. Maybe not as I might just buy some at a higher price after looking at things this weekend. Mentally I need a break because my trading has sucked lately. I'm glad it's the weekend. But this is a hard game to play and it requires a hell of a lot of work. I am trying to keep it together. But for now it's time to rest...
Thursday, October 06, 2005
The Dow lost 30 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We were down 100 points and bounced back in the last half hour. Oversold here but the action has been so negative I'm afraid to get long. Still might do it tomorrow on any weakness. Employment report early. GE had a positive announcement and was up 80 cents on heavy volume. There is a bid for my options again. Perhaps missed out on the November calls as my order wasn't filled yesterday. Wasn't sure on that one. Gold was up over $5 and the XAU rose over 3 points, gaining back what it lost yesterday. My options are still showing a profit but this could backfire. Tomorrow will be important. Might just have to get out. I need to make some decisions. Volatility has returned and this used to be when I was at my best. Perhaps missed a chance to get long the OEX today but we'll see. Gotta believe that I can do the right thing. Hope to tomorrow. Mentally I'm fine for now. But need to read the signs. Might have missed my chance with the XAU profit. Probably have to be up for the open tomorrow and take it from there. Could be a long day. Must be mentally prepared. Ideas seem to be working. Need to check the McClellan oscillator tonight. Might not confirm the buy signal. Tough game.
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
The Dow sunk over 120 points. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. I thought we would get a little pullback here but this is more than I expected. Something is going on here and I don't know what. GE was down a bit but the options don't have a bid anymore. They're dead I think. Unless we get an amazing turnaround. But when it's this negative I don't know what to say. Sure wish I would have stepped up and bought the puts yesterday when I had the chance. But you can't go on what you wish you would have done. That's a losers game. At least my idea was right. Might try and get long before the employment report because we are going to be blown out to the downside. But I don't want to step in front of this. Might do it though. Gold did not move today but the XAU was down over 3 points and the puts there are looking good. Looks like gold could be heading lower here. Want to take the profit soon though as we are looking for support in the near term. Don't know for sure but I'll check the charts later tonight. Don't want to hold them forever and may sell them and then buy them back cheaper. Had an idea about getting long Pfizer but the market action here is very negative. Mentally I'm trying to do what it takes. But this is the toughest game in the world. Cannot forget that. My mind is coming back to the discipline it needs but tomorrow is another day. Gotta do the right thing. Will try and get long at the trendline perhaps. More work needs to be done tonight...
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
The Dow lost about 95 points on expanding volume. That is never a good sign. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. Expected some pullback and got it. I don't think this is the beginning of something big but who knows? Best case scenario here would be to build a base. GE was down again on better volume too. The calls are just about dead. I suppose I had better sell them and perhaps go out to November if I'm still a believer in this trade. Not sure now. Earnings a week from Friday. Don't think I can wait that long. On the bright side, gold didn't move today but the XAU was down 2 points. My puts here are in the money. I don't own a lot of them but at least the ideas are right. Really should just get out of the GE trade and move on. Looking to hold the XAU puts for a little while. Two and a half weeks to go there. Mentally I'm trying to come together. Thinking that this will be a good month. Gotta have the discipline and do the work. Easier said than done. Almost bought some puts this morning and should have. I am possibly developing a short term trade timeline. Would have worked today but the commission costs could be prohibitive. We'll see.
Monday, October 03, 2005
The Dow lost over 30 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive though. I still feel we are heading down for a while here. Until the employment report at least. Need to get some negatives on there to work off the overbought situation. GE was lower today and this trade is just not gonna work. Volume picked up to the downside and that is never good. I should probably just take the loss and go out to the next month if I feel this trade is worthy. Gold lost a few dollars and the XAU fell a couple points early but then came back. Volume was average. Not sure what to do here. The options are slightly profitable. I don't have a stop-loss order in yet. Had I placed one today, I would already be out of the trade. I still feel that this one will work good before the expiration but who knows? Mentally I'm trying to keep it together. My mind still hasn't gotten back to the discipline necessary for success. I really need to work on that. It is essential to the cause. I should probably cut back on the trades until my mind is right. I'm working on it. I think there is some good money out there to be made this month. We'll see...