Thursday, December 31, 2009
It was a quiet day to the downside until the last half hour today. Then the bottom fell out as the Dow lost 120 points. Volume was light again and the advance/declines were negative. We needed to see some downside, technically and we got it. You really can't tell what will happen next since this was such a thinly traded week. My guess is that we will head back to the upside but I'll have to mull things over the long weekend. Gold was up $3 but the XAU was flat. I suppose it wasn't too bad for the gold shares considering the overall markets drop. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. My ABX calls are solidly in the red now and close to getting stopped out. Any downside on Monday will probably end this trade with a loss. The time premium continues to get sucked out of this trade. In retrospect they should have been dumped earlier this week and I could buy them back later if I chose to do so. It is however, a long weekend. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. The 2009 trading year has come to a close and it wasn't a good one for me. My trading account was down 21%, which was almost a repeat of 2007 when I lost 25%. I have made some adjustments to my trading rules and it will be up to me to stick to them. There were many opportunities through out the year but my trading decisions never panned out as planned. My management of the trades is where most of the trouble was. I'm working on it. It is the toughest game in the world. There are no excuses. I'll go over the charts this weekend and be ready for Monday morning. For now though it's time to take a break over the long weekend. I'll be looking forward to a better trading year in 2010.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Another day of the blahs as the Dow gained 3 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was extremely light. The market tried to sell off but came back. I really think we need to see some downside tomorrow or we will be starting out the new year lower. That's my guess. We'll get through tomorrow and go from there. Gold dropped $5 and the XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. My ABX calls are now in the red. Looks like I'll hang on until next year unless they get stopped out tomorrow. Obviously, I should have dumped them earlier and then bought them back if I wanted to try it again. This trade still could work but it isn't looking promising at this point. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. Almost done with 2009 and it was a terrible trading year for me. I'll get the final details out tomorrow. Otherwise the market just isn't working off the overbought condition as it should. The break to new recovery highs has been on anemic volume. It isn't a positive at this point. On to the final trading day for 2009.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Another light volume exercise in waiting for next year as the Dow lost a point. Advance/declines about even again. I'm expecting some weakness and it will probably be soon. I don't think it's the beginning of anything big but we do have to work off the overbought condition of the market. Summation index still heading higher. Gold dropped about $10 today and the XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX and GG had fractional losses with ABX leading the way. NEM was flat. The volume was holiday light again. My ABX calls are back to break even. The technicals look like they are about to roll over so this could be another in the story of 2009 losing trades now. I have seen it time and time again this past year. There is no volume here though so there is still a chance that it will work in the beginning of the year. We'll see. The dollar was a bit stronger today. Mentally I'm doing OK. Perhaps I should have just waited until the new year to initiate this gold trade. The market seems even slower than usual for this time of year. 2 days left in 2009. I can't see any big rally until next week, if then. This has been a light volume rise and that is never sustainable in my opinion. So we'll see what happens.
Monday, December 28, 2009
It was a lackluster Monday as the Dow gained 27 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were about even. We're overbought here and I would expect some downside this week. There's not a lot of data out this week. And it's a short week. I probably should not even have an open position but what can you do? Gold was up 3 bucks and it really should have been more considering the events of the weekend. That's not a bullish sign. The XAU fell 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. My ABX calls are still in the black but if we don't see some upside movement, the time premium will start to get sucked out of them. Plus if we start to get a drop in the overall market as I suspect, the gold shares will follow. So perhaps I won't be holding this position into the new year. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So it's a short holiday week and you can't put much stock into what movement there is. Everyone is gearing up for the beginning of the year. My thinking was that there would be some who would want to position themselves in gold ahead of time but it doesn't look like it today. So I'll ponder things overnight and go from there.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Up another 53 points on this holiday shortened session. Volume was extremely light. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We're moving higher but it is hard to get excited when the volume just isn't there. It could be a fake out. Overbought now as well. Gold had a good day, up $10 but the gold shares did not follow. The XAU was up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves on very light volume. My ABX trade is still in the black. I'm really going to have to think about this one over the long weekend. Light volume rallies are never a good thing and that's what we've gotten here. Perhaps it is just a sign of the holiday times but I'm not so sure. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there I guess. Happy Holidays everyone.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Not much today as the Dow gained a point on very light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a positive going forward. Summation index heading higher. It's got everything but volume. However it is a holiday week. Gold was up $7 on a weaker dollar but was off in the Aftermarket. The XAU rose 5 1/3. ABX and NEM were up 1 1/4, while GG tacked on 1 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares seem to have started to act better than the metal itself. That could be a good sign. Or not. Usually it is. The ABX calls I purchased are in the black. Now the question is what to do next. I'm leaning towards taking the profit sooner rather than later but I will have to think it over. I'll at least be holding on until next week. Mentally I'm doing OK but feel a bit tired. Shortened trading session tomorrow and I wouldn't make much of what happens. It's holiday time and the major players aren't around. So it's time to take it easy.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Continuing higher as the Dow tacked on another 50 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. It's a light volume rally and they can never be trusted. However we are in the favorable period for a Santa Claus rally. Summation index heading higher as well. We really need a high volume breakout of the trading range one way or the other to determine where we are heading. Gold lost another $10 and was lower in the aftermarket. The XAU was flat, off 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light to average volume. The gold shares were weak early and my open order for January ABX calls was filled. The stop loss order has been placed. I originally wanted to hold this trade into the new year but it seems like we have entered a listless period for the gold shares and I may sell them before the end of the year if they aren't stopped out. Or I may just sell them anyway. The dollar was up a bit today. The gold shares are still oversold. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Definitely feeling better than yesterday. 2 days to go this week and I don't expect any huge moves. Maybe some backing and filling going into Christmas. That's it for today. We'll see how the ABX trade works out.
Monday, December 21, 2009
A good start to the week for the bulls as the Dow gained 85 points. Advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. Still stuck in the trading range though. I don't see any high volume breakout occurring one way or the other until next year. I could be wrong though and often am. I'd expect the market to drift higher for the rest of the week. Gold was hit again today, down $15 and lower in the aftermarket. The XAU held up well, off 1 1/2. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM dropped 1 1/4. Volume was average. The dollar was higher today. The gold shares held up better than the metal itself and that could be bullish going forward for the gold shares. I still have an order in for some ABX January calls though I did adjust it down a touch on the price. The longer term uptrend line is holding for now and we remain oversold. Mentally I'm doing OK but I'm not feeling that well today. A short trading week this week and next. The sidelines isn't a bad place to be but traders will be trying to position themselves for the start of the new year. I'm still going to give the gold share calls a try if my order is filled. So we'll see what happens.
Friday, December 18, 2009
It was a relatively quiet expiration as the Dow gained 20 points. Volume was pretty good and the advance/declines were positive. Perhaps this is the beginning of the Santa Claus rally. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Still stuck in the trading range though. I don't really expect a breakout one way or the other until next year. Gold was up another $5 and the XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX and GG were up around a buck and NEM gained over 1/2. Volume was good. We are at the area where the gold shares should hold up and rally. I will be looking at the gold share calls next week on any weakness. The options didn't move much today even with 1 point moves in ABX and GG. There is a lot of time premium in the prices. I'm leaving in my open order for ABX calls. If we don't hold up here than that trade will be off. The dollar was strong early and then fell back. We reached the 78 level which was the target in my opinion. Checking the dollar chart, there is a chance we could go to 80. However I am sticking with the plan for the gold shares at these levels for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. A holiday week coming up and I expect that things will slow down. It makes for tough trading. However I think we are at a point where perhaps taking a risk in the gold share calls is warranted. I'll check the charts over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. There is work to do before Monday though.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
It wasn't quiet today as stocks fell 132 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. Perhaps it was expiration related or maybe just getting the selling done before the holidays. We're now back at the bottom of the trading range. I thought we would break to the upside but perhaps I'm wrong again. Not oversold on a short term basis yet but we're getting there. Closed near the low of the day and that isn't positive. Gold got clobbered and took out the recent low as the dollar had a big day to the upside. The precious metal lost $28 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost about 9. ABX down 1 1/2, GG off 2 and NEM lost 3. Volume was heavy. We have reached the longer term uptrend line that I was waiting for. Will it hold? Doesn't look like it with todays action. I have an order in for some January ABX calls and I'm leaving it open until it gets filled. The dollar has just about reached the 78 level which is where I believe it will stop. If it doesn't then I will have to readjust my thinking as to what is going on here. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I really don't think that today is the start of any big sustained decline. I think we'll get a Santa Claus rally and good money flow input at the beginning of next year. That's my guess for now. But the market can and will do anything. We'll see about expiration Friday and go from there.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
The Dow dropped 10 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were higher for most of the day until the Fed and then we fell. Really not much is happening here as the trading range market continues. Just how long is this going to go on I wonder? The Fed said nothing new and sideways we go. It will be interesting once we break out. When that is, is anybodies guess. With a holiday week coming up I don't see any change of the current scenario until next year. I could be wrong. Gold bounced, up $13. The XAU rose 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains with ABX leading the way. The relative strength lately has been with ABX. Volume was nothing special. I did not try the December gold share calls today and will wait for the January options. The dollar sold off early and then came back. I would really like to see the gold shares return to the longer term uptrend line for me to place a trade. There is no rush but I'll be keeping an eye on them. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep long enough. So it's a waiting game for now. Expiration in 2 days and then a short week. I'd expect volume to dry up but who knows? My next trade will be some gold share calls unless there is a solid signal in the OEX or a high volume breakout from the trading range.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
The Dow lost 49 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were due for some type of pullback with the short term overbought condition. Now it's a toss up as to which way we go from here. Fed tomorrow and I wouldn't expect any surprises. But you never know. I am not going to try any OEX trades with 3 days left and a neutral technical condition. Gold was flat today and the XAU lost over 3 points. ABX dropped 3/4, GG lost 2/3 and NEM fell a buck. Volume was light. I did place an order for GG December calls but it wasn't filled. Gold held up well today despite a very good up move in the dollar. I think that perhaps a short term gold share trade could work. The technicals are very oversold on a daily basis for the gold shares. A bounce is due. There's only 3 days left though. I might try to do it again early tomorrow morning. I have to mull things over tonight. It's risky. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept more. The question is whether to try this gold trade or not. I'll monitor things overnight and go from there. I still like the January gold share trade and may just look for an opportunity there. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Monday, December 14, 2009
We started the week off with a gain as the Dow rose 29 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We're getting short term overbought here but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. We are at the top of the trading range. Will we break out to the upside? Stay tuned. Fed on Wednesday could be the catalyst. Or not. That is the type of market environment at the moment. Perhaps I'll try the OEX puts but I doubt it. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rose 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. Oversold here but still not at the rising trend lines. I don't think I'll be trying anything for December but I'll have to see what tomorrow brings. Running out of time for sure but it is possible that the Fed will be a catalyst here as well. The dollar was a bit weaker today. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. So we have 4 days left which is enough time for a short term trade, which really isn't my best type. It would probably be best to stay on the sidelines but we'll see. I still am in the mindset of getting some January gold share calls. The technicals are oversold on a daily basis, neutral on a weekly basis. Let's see what happens on Tuesday.
Friday, December 11, 2009
We continued higher today as the Dow gained 65 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It's been a lackluster move to the upside so far. Expiration week coming up and it could have the usual positive bias. We are still in the trading range though and moving back up towards the top of it. With the holidays fast approaching I can't see any big moves coming up in the near term but anything can happen I guess. Gold futures lost $6 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 3 2/3. ABX off 1 1/2, GG off 1 and NEM off 1/2. Volume was light. Nobody was rushing in to buy as was the case just a couple of weeks ago. The dollar had another good day and closed the week near the highs. We are getting close to an uptrend line for the golds shares. I'll be getting some GG or ABX calls when we get there. I'm not ruling out the Decembers if we get there early next week. But most likely I'll be going out to January. There is no guarantee that the uptrend line will hold but we should see at least a bounce there. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The Fed next week will be the main focus and that isn't until Wednesday. Trading the December options will be risky. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. There may or may not be opportunity. We could just move sideways as well. But it's the weekend now and time for a rest.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
The Dow continued to the upside with a gain of 68 points today. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We opened higher and traded sideways for the rest of the day. So it continues. The major averages are stuck in a range and we wait for the breakout. My guess is that we're going to move to the upside eventually. But it is just a guess. The medium term indicators are move oversold than overbought. Gold stabilized, was up $5 today and stronger in the aftermarket. The XAU was only up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves both ways on light volume. I still may try something for December but am leaning towards the January gold share calls. The dollar was a touch higher today. The gold shares are oversold here but I'd like to wait for next week to do something. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. 6 days until the December expiration, so the risk is high. We've got the Fed next week as well. I don't expect any surprises but you never know. We could also just meander around in the trading range as we have been. We'll see what happens Friday and go from there.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
A bounce to the upside as the Dow gained 51 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We traded down to the low end of the sideways channel and have bounced up. The market has been in this trading range for almost a month. Once it breaks out one way or the other, it should be a big move. It's probably best to wait and see what happens. Once we break out then it's just a matter of getting on board. Gold was down $20 on the futures but came back in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 4 1/2 points. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1 and NEM up 1 1/3. Volume was average. I did leave in an overnight order for some December ABX calls but it wasn't filled. We'll see what kind of bounce we get here. The dollar was a bit weaker on the day. We're oversold on the gold shares. I still like the January calls and will be getting some here soon. Next week could be the best time but we'll see. It's possible I'll try Decembers again if things line up right. Mentally I'm feeling fine. One of the problems to deal with here is that things could really slow down at the end of the year. After next weeks expiration the volatility could shrink. That won't help the option prices. I don't know what will happen but it would not surprise me if we moved into a lackluster trading pattern. So that must be considered going forward as well. We'll see if we can build on todays gains tomorrow.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
It was a downer Tuesday as the Dow lost 104 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Still in the sideways channel but near the lower end. Will we break down here? I don't know. Getting short term oversold but not there yet. Maybe it's a chance to get long the December OEX calls. Maybe not. I'm indecisive here so unless there is a solid signal, I'm on the sidelines. Gold continues to fall, down $20 and dropping in the aftermarket. ABX down almost 2, with GG and NEM off 1 1/2. Volume was average. The dollar had another good day. Oversold here for sure and I'm thinking about perhaps playing the bounce that will inevitably occur. However I am going to buy some January gold share calls when the XAU hits my downside target. We are almost there already which concerns me. But I'm going to give it a shot. Next week would be ideal but if we get there this week, I'll be buying some calls. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. My thinking is that the decline or sideways movement we are seeing now is setting up for a January rally. But that's a guess. The market will go where it wants. I may leave in an overnight order for some gold share calls. I'll be checking the charts tonight.
Monday, December 07, 2009
The Dow was up a point today as we closed about in the middle of the days trading range. In other words, indecision. Volume was nothing special and the advance/declines were positive. The S&P along with the NASDAQ were lower. We will break out of the trading range eventually and it's probably a wise move to wait until that happens. Which doesn't mean that I will of course. However I have no OEX trades in mind right now. Gold continued lower, off $5 on the futures and lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 3 points. ABX and NEM had fractional losses after being lower early. GG lost about a buck. Volume was pretty good again. I'd expect a bounce here soon but don't think that I'll try and play it. I'm going to look at the January calls. That should be the next trade as of now. But you never know. The dollar bounced around today and closed lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 9 days in the December option cycle. I'll look things over again tonight but I don't see any decent signals at the moment. Not a lot of data out this week. We've got the Fed rate decision next week. So it still looks like a time to be patient for now. We'll see.
Friday, December 04, 2009
An interesting day as we opened higher, gave it all back and then some, only to return to the upside by the end of the day. The Dow gained 22 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment report was much stronger than expected which caused markets to move with volatility. We are still in a sideways trading range with regards to the S&P, even with all the gyrations today. No OEX trades still. I don't have any good signals yet. Perhaps before the December expiration. Gold got hammered as the dollar rose on the employment news. Gold lost about $50 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 10 1/2. ABX off over 4, GG and NEM fell 2 3/4. Volume was heavy. I still like a January trade in the calls here and will be looking for an entry point in the next 2 weeks. Perhaps the game has changed here for a while. I'll check the charts over the weekend. Gold did go parabolic and a drop was to be expected. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. Now the employment report is out of the way. The overall market has been stronger than the Dow and that could be a sign of good things to come on the bullish side. We will break out of this trading range eventually one way or the other. I'll be looking over the charts this weekend and take it from there. For now, it's time for a break.
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Opened higher and closed lower and that isn't really a bullish sign as the Dow lost 86 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are still moving sideways. Tomorrows employment report could be the catalyst to get us out of this trading range. Or not. I have no OEX trades on my radar. We are not overbought or oversold here, just muddling along. Gold was up another $5 today but the XAU fell 4 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around a buck on average volume. The dollar was a touch higher. I'll get long the gold shares on a pullback. That is the game plan for now. No hurry though as we are very overbought here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So was today a precursor of what the markets reaction will be to the employment report. Stay tuned. So far we haven't broken through the long term downtrend lines on the S&P. When we do it will be quite a rally but it hasn't happened yet. Perhaps at the beginning of next year but that is a guess. The market will go where it wants. On to tomorrow.
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Kind of a sideways day as the Dow lost 19 points. The overall market was stronger. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. Fed minutes were released but they were not a market mover. I think we're in a holding pattern until the employment report on Friday. I have no OEX trades in mind. Gold continues higher, up $12. The XAU rose 4 1/4. ABX was up almost 2, GG up over a buck and NEM was the laggard finishing flat on the day. The dollar was a bit higher. Gold has gone parabolic and the money just continues to flow there. The volume is really good on the rallies. How high can it go? Who knows? I think that I'll just get long the next time the indicators move toward oversold since they never really seem to get there. Perhaps. I do want to have some calls before the beginning of next year because my thinking is that the new year money will flock to the precious metal. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. The market and summation index have been moving sideways for a few weeks. Perhaps the employment report will break us out of the range. Some of the major indexes are also at long term resistance. If we move to the upside it should be significant. So we'll see what happens. The market also shrugged off the Dubai bad news and that is bullish. Perhaps the OEX calls are the play. I'll mull things over tonight.
Tuesday, December 01, 2009
It was a positive start to the new month as the Dow gained 126 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to frustrate me as it is moving basically sideways. There's nothing I can do about that. Perhaps I should have realized that the money flow would be coming into the markets. The Dubai event was not sustainable to the downside. It's always easy to look back and say what you should have done. Doesn't matter. The markets keep moving along. Gold had a great day and crossed $1200, up 17 on the day. The XAU rose 9. ABX up 3 1/3, GG up 2 3/4 and NEM up 2. All on heavy volume. Missed that window of opportunity as well. But gold is so overbought at the moment that it can't end well when it does. But who knows? The dollar lost ground again. As oversold as the indicators are in the dollar, they are just as overbought for gold. I don't plan on doing anything there after todays action. Mentally I'm not feeling 100%. Could have slept better. It seems as though I am just waiting for next year at this point. That may not be the best plan of action. However I don't have a good feel for what's going on at the moment. I'm not going to press things. If there's a decent signal one way or the other in the December cycle, I'll act on it. Otherwise I'll wait it out.