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Monday, July 31, 2006

The Dow lost 34 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were even. I think we are still going higher. End of the month today. And we should get some money flows for the next couple of days. After that, who knows. Gold didn't do much and the XAU sold off and came back. ABX remains strong and it doesn't look like I can do anything before the earnings after the close on Wednesday. Looks like I missed it but you never know. It's also riskier than usual at this point because the technicals are all overbought. We'll see. Nothing else on the horizon for now. I need to get back into the swing of things. Mentally the work and concentration needs to be stepped up. I'll try. Summer is still in full bloom and I need to get it together now. Trading is a demanding task and nothing less than your full attention will suffice...

Friday, July 28, 2006

Is the trend up? The Dow tacked on another 120 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. How far can we go? Who knows? Summation index higher and you can't fight that. I will be waiting for the Fed meeting in August and hope to get short before it. I think that will be the surprise and the play for August. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU roared back another 4 points. ABX was up almost a buck and it doesn't look like I'll get a play in there but we'll see. Earnings for ABX are after the bell on Wednesday. The options are expensive. The volume is on the upside for sure there now so it looks like it could work. I hate to chase it though. However I saw the exact same thing happen during the last earnings cycle. NEM came out with good earnings and sold off just like this time. And then when ABX came out with its earnings it rose a couple points regardless of NEM. The relative strength is with ABX. I'd like to give it a shot if I get a chance. Otherwise not much else to say. It's the weekend and summertime so I'll enjoy it while I can. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there...

Thursday, July 27, 2006

The Dow lost 2 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. GDP report tomorrow. No trades in the OEX for now. I'm still trying to get a handle on things. Gold was up over $10 today. However the XAU was down over 4 points and the volume picked up in the gold shares. Interesting. I would still like to get long some gold stocks but now I'm not so sure. NEM came out with great earnings and sold off over 2 bucks. ABX announces on Wednesday. I still might buy some calls there. But it's a tough call. Summation index still higher so I will lean towards the bullish camp. I'm trying to get back into the groove. I need to step up my readings and get motivated. Mentally feeling good still from the vacation but I need to concentrate on what needs to be done. It's hard to get the feel after being gone for a while but time will cure that. I also need to switch brokerages for my longer term trades because TD Ameritrade is just too cheap with the interest rates as the money is parked. That is something I will try to get done in the next couple of weeks. Otherwise I suppose I'll let this week pass and get ready to trade next week...

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

The Dow lost a point on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up, we were down and ended even. The volume has been surprisingly good. The trend is up and the summation index is pointing higher. Gold gained a few bucks and the XAU was up a couple points. I'm waiting for a pause or a pullback here but I think I missed it. I will perhaps be able to get in within a week or so. I'd like to own some ABX calls before the earnings next week. But the technicals are already overbought. We'll see what happens. The options still are pretty expensive. And I'm a bit rusty from the vacation but then again what else is new? Mentally I need to get with it because the market waits for no one. It seems the thought is that the economy is slowing and that could help gold with a weaker dollar. Of course the opposite could be true too. GDP for the 2nd quarter comes out on Friday. Might be a mover...

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

The Dow rose another 52 points today on good volume again. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. This is the first time in quite a while we have actually seen some follow-thru on a rally. I think we are in a summer rally. August calls will be the play perhaps. Gold was up around 5 bucks and the XAU rose over 3 points. I would like to get some calls here but I may have missed it. NEM has its earnings out on Thursday and ABX reports next Wednesday. I hate to chase things but this could be one of those times where it pays off. Or not. I think we are in a bullish market mode. I don't know the reason. The trouble with gold is that when the Israel vs. Lebanon crisis has a cease-fire, the price of bullion should drop. I might wait for that. Gold is also showing strength in the face of a rising dollar and that doesn't make any sense. So it just doesn't get any easier. I'll wait it out here for a while though because we are in the first week of the option cycle. Mentally, all is well and I'm looking forward to making some money here shortly. Gotta be ready to act though. Hopefully the market will set up now for the fall in the fall...

Monday, July 24, 2006

The Dow soared 180 points on pretty good volume for a summer Monday. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. I'm not so sure this is the start of something big but who knows? I think it's more of a reaction to the expiration on Friday. Sometimes on the following Monday the market does the exact opposite of Fridays action. Gold was down $7 but the XAU gained over 2 points. I would like to get long some gold shares as my next trade. I'm looking at ABX and NEM. The technicals are oversold, longer term. I'll be looking for a pullback from todays movement and may put on a trade if that happens. I'll have to check some longer term charts just to make sure. Just starting to get back into market mode. Mentally I feel fine and am waiting for the next set-up. The vacation seems to have done me good. But we all know the real test is the trading itself. I'll need to get some ideas about the markets future. And go from there...

Friday, July 21, 2006

Well, it's been a while. My vacation is now over. The Dow lost 60 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. It was an expiration Friday. The market lost ground while I was away. I think it will lose some more before it is all said and done. The Middle East blew up while I was away also. Israel is about to invade Lebanon. Market factors to be sure. I will now have to get back into market mode. The routine must return. It is. Gold lost over 10 bucks today. It generally trended higher while I was gone but has fallen recently. The dollar has pretty much gone sideways since I left. The summation index turned around and was heading higher for most of my vacation. It recently turned down. I don't know where we are going nearterm from here. The Fed meets in August and that should be a market mover. I have updated all my charts since I've been gone and am ready to trade, I think. I have some ideas but there is more catching up for me to do and I am not going to rush into anything. My mind needs to return to the routine of following the markets every day. That might take a week or so. Plus it is summer and we should see the doldrums at any time. The market will get lethargic and not really do much of anything before it gets ready to make its next big move. It is already the weekend and I'm going to relax. I'll do some catch-up work but for the most part, I'm ready to go...

Monday, July 03, 2006

The Dow gained 80 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Gold was up $10 in the world markets and the XAU rose over 5 points. The volume was surprisingly good and I have missed this move. It isn't a good feeling. I have started my vacation and leave my home tomorrow for 2 weeks. There will probably not be any postings until I return. I am going to try and forget about the markets for a while and then come back fresh and ready to go at it. There is much work to do when I return. But for now I'm going to try and enjoy the summer for a bit...