Thursday, November 30, 2006
The Dow lost 5 points today on very heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. If we hold up here for another day I am thinking of getting some puts on the OEX. Not completely sold on this idea but it could be the play. I haven't gotten a complete short term sell signal but one could take shape. Or perhaps I'm just antsy after missing out on gold. It rose over $10 today and the XAU went up over 5 points. The ABX calls took off and I am feeling terrible. I suppose those after the bell NEM trades make sense now. Some big player got good prices and cleaned up on the calls. I did place an order for NEM calls today but then canceled it. However I did leave in an order overnight in case we get a pullback in the morning. The dollar continued to fall today and I think that will continue. We are oversold on the dollar and it is in freefall. Gold is way overbought and staying there. I have seen this before. This is a move that I will chase. ABX really is acting stronger but the calls are way overpriced. My hope is that NEM will catch up. But that could all change as we move forward in time. I am also thinking about getting short the market here as the high volume today with no price movement tells me that the buyers might be done as the group in control here. It would also set us up for a nice rise at the beginning of next year. At any rate the OEX is a tough trade so I will wait and see how the market sets up for that. Mentally I'm feeling down for not putting on any gold trade but I need to move on and maintain focus. It may not be too late here but we'll see. Perhaps moving to a higher strike price and going to January will have to be the move. The monthlies in gold are bullish and the weeklies are only halfway to overbought. I'll think it over tonight and take it from there. I'd expect another pause here for gold soon but who knows.
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
The Dow was up 90 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Volatility has returned. But will we just keep going higher? Was the 150 plus point decline just a blip on the horizon? It is the end of the month which could skew things. But really, I don't know. The summation index should now be back into positive territory. I'm on the sidelines for the OEX now. I'm going to have to wait for a good signal. It isn't easy. Gold was down a couple bucks today but the XAU was up fractionally. It still seems like the gold shares want to go higher. There is no selling pressure. I am still looking at the ABX calls if I get a chance but it doesn't look like it will happen. I noticed some strange action in the NEM calls after the bell. I don't know what it means but the volume soared on some trades 7 minutes after the bell and the prices were low on the trades for the day. Can't tell if someone's getting in big or looking to bail out. I'll check the open interest tomorrow. Open interest has increased in the ABX calls and that's usually a positive. ABX is overbought here though but I'm thinking that it will stay there if the dollar remains weak which I expect it to. But nothing is for sure in this game. Mentally I'm hanging in there with the back-up computer and all. I'm not running as many things at once now in hopes the computer will perform better. But it is a problem. Gotta keep going though.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
The blog today is early due to computer issues. There is a reason that this is a back-up computer. It cannot handle what I have to do. The Dow is rallying today up over 30 points at the moment. The overall market is stronger. Advance/declines are positive and the volume looks decent. I am missing out on gold though as the XAU is up over a point. ABX is acting well. Big Ben spoke today and that influenced the markets for a while. The dollar is still weaker. Gold didn't do much today. However I feel that this is where I need to be but it's probably too late. The computer problems here are taking center stage. There isn't much I can do at this point. I'm getting it fixed and I'll just have to move on. Hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.
Monday, November 27, 2006
My computer crashed over the weekend and I am on a backup computer. It is older and slower but the show must go on until I can get the newer one fixed. The Dow lost 158 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. We got oversold pretty quick. The markets continue to be interesting. The dollar got clobbered again today and that could be part of the reason. WalMart reported weaker sales and that is another excuse. We will now be pointing down on the summation index as a sell signal. We are oversold and a bounce would not be a surprise. How good that bounce is will tell a lot. I'm in a wait and see mode for the OEX. Gold was up another couple bucks and I expected the gold shares to soar but they didn't. The XAU was up a half a point. I still want to get some calls on ABX or NEM here. But I will wait to see what happens. We should have moved higher here for the gold shares but there wasn't a lot of interest. I don't know what that means but we'll see. With the dollar in a freefall here I would expect money to flow into gold but it hasn't happened in a big way just yet. Perhaps I will go out to January as I wanted to do. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit thrown off with the computer problems. At least I was prepared with a back-up but it isn't as good as the normal computer. It will do for now though. You've sometimes got to make adjustments. This is important in trading and the mechanics of exactly what you are trying to do. It isn't an easy game. But you've got to roll with what happens and keep on trying. There is a lot of data coming out tomorrow so it could get interesting. I will try and come up with some type of plan for tomorrow and the December cycle. But really my thoughts at the moment are a little scattered and I need to work on that...
Friday, November 24, 2006
The Dow lost 46 points on extremely light holiday volume. Advance/declines were positive. Hard to say what today means with such light volume. The dollar has gotten killed over the last 2 days so perhaps todays decline has something to do with that. Gold was up $9 and the XAU gained over 3 points. I want to be long the gold shares but I hate to chase the move. The volume was light and it did not close near the high. But the weekly charts say buy and I think I might get some calls if we get a bit of weakness on Monday. I'm going to try December and not January. I did put in an order today just to test the market and it didn't get filled. I don't usually do that but I did today. If it did get filled I'd still want to own them because I think we will continue to see strength there. The dollar chart looks like it is breaking down. That should help gold. We'll see. The only problem here is the fact that it was a holiday week. Not all the players were in the markets. So the moves we have seen may not be legit. There was some major violence in Iraq again and I think that helped to support gold here also. The gold market can sometimes just start going and it continues to run. It also has some crazy volatility that works both ways. I'll check things again over the weekend but the plan for now is to get long even with the recent move we've seen. Mentally I feel good with the holiday and all. Next week could be interesting. There is also a lot of data out on Tuesday and I'd like to be positioned before then if I plan on doing anything.
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
The Dow was up 5 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive and the overall market was stronger. We are very overbought here, at the top of the ranges on a lot of indicators. So a drop is imminent but none of the drops lately has led to anything major. Gold didn't do much today and neither did the XAU. Volume was light. It's pre-holidays doldrums and then a shortened session on Friday. So there isn't much really going on and this is more of a time to just take it easy. Sometimes the beginning of December is weak, setting up the end of the month and January to be positive. The market has had a very good run here and a pullback would probably be a good thing. But the market will do what it does, so if it just continues higher I suppose that wouldn't be a surprise either. Mentally I'm on hold waiting for the next trade. I'm not going to force things and will wait and see if I get a chance for the gold trade. Otherwise it will be the sidelines until a decent signal is generated.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
The Dow gained 5 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger again. We shouldn't see much movement in the next couple of days with Thanksgiving and the volume will dry up. That's what usually happens. Gold was up 6 bucks today and the XAU rose about 5 points. I did not expect that but we were oversold on a daily basis. I'm hoping I haven't missed the beginning of the next upmove but it's possible. The volume wasn't all that heavy. I'm hoping that it was a one day wonder and we will come back down. Time will tell. I'll adjust to what happens here. My emphasis is still to go out until January. But you never know. The gold market gaps a lot so you've got to have some type of idea of what you want to do and then do it. I am looking at a certain level for ABX and when we get there, I'm in. There is also the chance that we get there and just keep on going down also. Time will tell. NEM has a different picture but the play could be there as well. It's all just a guess until we get there. The technicals need to line up daily, weekly and monthly. It seems they do that best with ABX. Mentally I'm tired due to getting up for an early appointment. Luckily there isn't anything really going on tradingwise at the moment. So I'm going to try and relax. The holiday is almost here and the markets should be relatively quiet for the rest of the week.
Monday, November 20, 2006
The Dow lost 26 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. The overall market was stronger implying higher prices down the road. No trades in the nearterm for me. Gold was little changed as was the XAU. Nothing doing there either for now but I will be looking to get positioned for January if the market cooperates. Not much economic data out this week and there's Thanksgiving too. So it is time to take it easy and not try to force things. I'll let this week go by and then take it from there. Mentally I'm doing fine and just waiting for the next signal. This year is about over and it hasn't been a good one so far, profitwise. But there has been some improvement as to the overall picture and trading strategy. At any rate, in this game you've got to just keep on going. So that's what I'll do.
Friday, November 17, 2006
The Dow rose 36 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. Perhaps this will lead to a pause in this upturn. Perhaps not. Next week should be slow with Thanksgiving, so I'll wait for that to pass before making any trades. Gold was little changed today as was the XAU. I am going to try and be patient here but it looks like getting long soon is the way to go. I am going to go out to January on the gold shares unless something out of the ordinary happens. SUNH seems to be stabilizing here for now. This is not a trade but a longer term stock that I'd like to buy. I've mentioned it before as it is in the healthcare industry. If it gets to single digits, I'm a buyer. There isn't really much else to say here. We are entering a period where there really isn't usually much action. December is generally pretty slow before the holidays. Perhaps I won't make any other trades for this year. Mentally I'm just hanging around at this point. Options expiration has passed and it will be slow next week. Of course I will be watching everything as usual but the urgency won't be there. I suppose I can get started on writing up my goals for next year and taking a look back at this one. But unless something drastic happens it will probably be a time to be patient...
Thursday, November 16, 2006
The Dow gained 54 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive but not by much. The OEX puts I bought yesterday got stopped out for a loss of 45%. It's not as bad as it sounds since there wasn't a lot of money involved. I would love to be short here if there was some time left but the options only have a day to go. The inflation data was benign. Gold was down a couple of bucks today but the XAU got slammed. Down over 5 points. It moved in sympathy with oil which lost over 2 bucks. Interesting. I am keeping an eye on the gold shares here. I will be getting long gold when it sells off here. I'll be going out to January or perhaps even February. The NEM calls that I wanted got crushed. Sometimes the sidelines are the place to be. There really wasn't a good signal there. The key here will be when everybody else doesn't want it, buy it. Mentally I'm not feeling so down after the loss in the OEX. It was small and I am executing the proper tactics that I have implemented after the huge loss in September. I have been able to stick to the rules and that is a positive. I'm a bit tired from having to get up early but that's part of the process. It is really now time to come up with some strategies for December and beyond. The holiday week will be slow so I guess it's time to relax for a while.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
The Dow rose 33 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The Fed announcement came out. I had an order for some puts in but adjusted it after the market didn't move much on the Fed news. The market then went on to make a new high and the puts got filled. The market sold off a bit after that and the puts are now slightly profitable. It is a risky trade. Inflation news tomorrow will be the key. I will need to get out of these things relatively quickly with only 2 days to go before expiration. The stop-loss order is in. Gold was a touch lower today. NEM was higher and the calls that I almost got yesterday would have made some money. However the gold shares sold off early and I could have been stopped out for a loss which really would have ticked me off. I still want to go long there but will wait for now. I don't expect much movement after this week because of the holiday. My feeling at this point is to get January calls in ABX or NEM. Mentally I'm feeling good having gotten a good price for the puts. But it could all blow up tomorrow as I well know. The OEX is at the top of the Bollinger band, overbought and I can't see it going that much higher from here. But sideways movement would kill this trade also. The data tomorrow will drive this trade one way or the other. I'll need to be ready to do what it takes to make it work hopefully. I really don't think I'll be holding on until Friday. The market just keeps going higher.
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
The Dow was up 86 points to a new high today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The market sold off early in the day and then roared back to the upside. I guess there is a lot of money to be put to work out there. The inflation report was favorable but retail sales were weak. If anything it looks like deflation by the report today. But that's another story. I did not take any position in the OEX but I am thinking about getting short tomorrow before the release of the Fed minutes. We will be overbought tomorrow. Now we could stay overbought as we have before. It's risky. Gold lost a bit of ground today and the XAU was off a point and a half. I did put in an order for NEM calls. However the charts do not show a definitive buy signal. We are not completely oversold. This potential trade was a case of me just wanting to put a trade on for the sake of making a trade in expiration week. Yes, it could work out but there isn't a good basis for the trade. There were some things in its favor on the short term indicators. But it could just as well not work. I canceled the order. It would have eventually been filled. It very well may have been a winner. We'll find out later in the week. There are 3 days until expiration. Risk is high. I still might try something but it will have to be quick. Mentally I'm getting tired from watching the markets all day. But there will be time to take it easy next week, which will be slow with the Thanksgiving holiday. I am doing the best I can to control myself here and not do anything stupid. It isn't easy...
Monday, November 13, 2006
The Dow was up 23 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. I do not have a clear signal here to trade although I'd like to. It's expiration week and next week is a holiday week. But I can't do anything if there isn't a decent feeling one way or the other. I would like to short it here because we have been up against resistance 3 times and haven't gotten through. But it's just a guess. The fight is against myself. Gold was down $4 today and the XAU sold off and then came back. I had an order for some ABX calls in. ABX sold off to the Bollinger band. It is oversold on a short and longer term basis. But there are only 4 days left on the calls. The risk is huge. I canceled the order but ABX continued to rally. I really want to go out on a longer basis with the gold shares. I'm looking at January but who knows? Perhaps I will still do this trade but it might be too late and it might not be the smart thing to do. Gold and the XAU itself are not oversold. Mentally I'm feeling as if there are a million things going on at the same time here. Expiration week will do that. Everything tradingwise is compressed. I need to focus on what exactly it is that I want to do here. The sidelines might be the wise choice but you don't make any money that way. However you don't lose any either. I'll have to see what the markets are saying tomorrow. There is a ton of economic data being released this week. We'll have to see if it gives the market some direction. I cannot make the market do what I want. I can only hope to try and listen to what it is saying. The tech stocks were strong today and we will not get a major sell-off if that remains the case. Oil was weaker, the dollar was a bit stronger. I need to come up with a gameplan and go from there. It is never easy...
Friday, November 10, 2006
The Dow gained 5 points on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1. We sold off and then came back. I had to dump the OEX puts. I would have liked to have held on to them but the market started to rally a bit and the overall market was strong even though the volume was light. The gain on the calls was minimum, about 30%. There was not a lot of money involved. There was more money in the losing ABX call trade as I woke up to be stopped out. Gold did not follow through and was down $7. The XAU lost around 4 points. The volume was lighter though. I lost around 45% on the ABX calls. I chased the move and was punished for being so foolish. You must always be on guard against yourself. Just because I had a nice trade earlier in the week I felt like I actually knew what I was doing. I didn't. ABX wasn't overbought but the XAU and gold were. I got caught up in the moment, when I should have waited for a pullback. It was a dumb move. I've had a lot of them this year. Option expiration week looms and there will be opportunities but it will be hard to trade with not much time left. I will have to come up with some type of gameplan over the weekend. Right now there isn't really a clear signal. I will have to check the economic calendar also. Perhaps it will be a time to sit on the sidelines. We'll see. Mentally I'm tired with such a busy week but I will move on and go from here...
Thursday, November 09, 2006
The Dow lost 73 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative but not by as much as a down 73 market would indicate. That is a problem for me. The OEX puts didn't move that much even though we were down. I really think I need to dump them tomorrow but we'll see. We're not overbought or oversold here so anything could happen. There is no news tomorrow and I think it is a partial holiday for Veterans day. Gold soared today and was up over $15. The XAU rose 6 points as the dollar was weaker. NEM really did well as it has lately and was up 1 3/4. I bought some ABX calls. The volume was very heavy in the gold shares. Why did I get some calls even thought the move has already started? I am thinking that ABX will catch up with the rest of the gold shares. I did not think the order would be filled but it was. I could be wrong and it is a risky play. But the cost wasn't much higher than what I could have got them for yesterday. But the problem is that the action has been in NEM but the options there were way too expensive. We'll see what happens. I think I'm a bit more concerned about the OEX. It is a much harder instrument to trade. So I'll have to keep an eye on 2 positions. Mentally I'm feeling relatively good. Not sleeping as well as I would like but I'm not tired. Tomorrow will be interesting and I'll just have to see how the market goes. Option expiration week is next week so things will be skewed as usual. It is never easy...
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
The Dow rose 20 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are right back up to the recent highs and short term overbought. I bought some OEX puts. It is a risky play but I'm going to try it. The stop-loss order is already in. I also put in an order for some ABX calls but they weren't filled. ABX got back to the Bollinger band and gold sold off over 8 bucks today. The XAU was only down a point and a half. Trade number out tomorrow. No time today to blog. However if I'm in tune with what is happening we should see some weakness tomorrow. But as always that's just a guess. The markets whipped around on the election results and the presidents press conference where he canned the secretary of defense. Mentally I'm maybe a little too optimistic about my trading now after a winning trade. It is always a battle within yourself. More tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
The Dow rose 51 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up higher earlier but sold off in the last couple of hours. I dumped the OEX calls that I had. I certainly could have gotten a better price but I wanted to get out. It was originally just a bounce play and so that's how I played it. They closed higher than what I got for them and that's depressing. You always want to get the best prices for your trades even though that's impossible. I always want to do better. The gain was a little less that 200% and I don't think that's bad but I need to do better. Perhaps I should have held on since we are moving strong. But I am thinking that this will be a double top here and I have an overnight order in to buy some OEX puts. We will be overbought tomorrow as I have said before. I'm going to give the puts a try and keep a close stop on them and we'll see what happens. Gold was little changed and so was the XAU. I do want to get long here and we are just about at the uptrend line that began a couple weeks ago. I'll have to make a decision when we get there but I would like to get some calls. I don't want to spread myself too thin though. And if I'm looking for a decline in the overall market it could take gold with it. But it's all just a guess at this point as it usually is. The OEX call trade was a great set-up. I'm not sure that the puts are but they very well could be. I'm hoping that I didn't exit the calls too soon but that is possible. Mentally I'm a bit tired from not sleeping that good with the recent hot weather. I also don't want to think that I'm invincible after a winning trade. I need to keep grounded and look for the next opportunity. I think that it's here but I'm not sure and never really am. Is anybody? Maybe we'll get a bounce after the election or perhaps the rally will take off again. However for some reason I think what I'm thinking will be right this time so I'm sticking to it. We'll see.
Monday, November 06, 2006
The Dow soared 120 points today. Volume was average and the advances beat the declines by 3 to 1. Are we going to new highs? Or is this the bounce I was looking for and that's it? These are questions that must be answered. I must admit I did not expect such a powerful rally out of nowhere. The OEX calls are making money but now the question becomes when to sell them. The market will be overbought by Wednesday. But it can stay that way for quite a while as just seen. Will we rally after the election? I don't know. I've moved up the stop-loss order so this trade will be profitable. But by how much? I really think I'm going to bail out by the close Wednesday unless something happens to change my mind. Gold was down a couple bucks today and the XAU sold off by a point and a half. I do want to get long some gold shares and will probably go out until next month or January. That is my thinking right now. NEM seems to be stronger than ABX this time around. That is what I'm seeing lately. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling good after the weekend and having the market move as expected. But there is still much work to be done and the exit of this trade is the next challenge. It never is easy. I'll have to check todays statistics and go from there. I'm also still looking at SUNH for the long term. If it gets back into single digits, I'm a buyer and maybe even if it doesn't. But the question for now is if todays rally was for real and we should have some answers in the coming days.
Friday, November 03, 2006
The Dow was down 32 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. Down 6 days in a row on the Dow now. Who would of thought? The employment report was in line with expectations. Bonds dropped. We are really oversold here. I bought some OEX calls for a bounce. I am getting a signal to buy. The stop-loss order is in. I feel that this will be a winner but I don't think it will be a big one. However I have to act on the signals that I get or it is all just for naught. I would like to get short again after a bounce. Will it bounce? I believe so. Gold was up another buck today after selling off early. You just can't keep this market down. There seems to be a shift back into gold in a big way here. I will try and get long if there ever is a pullback. Longer term this looks like a trade to be in. I might possibly go out to January. We'll see. NEM seems to be acting better than ABX here. The volume has been pretty good into these issues. But perhaps it is too late in the short term. Mentally I'm doing as good as can be expected. It is the weekend but I have been busy outside of the markets lately which makes it tough to concentrate on what needs to be done. It is extremely difficult sometimes to keep things separate but it must be done. I am going to try and relax over the weekend and come back fresh on Monday.
Thursday, November 02, 2006
The Dow was down 12 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are short term oversold. I put in an order for OEX calls but it wasn't filled. Employment report tomorrow. I may try and get long any weakness in the morning. I think this is a short term opportunity and a good one. Gold was up 8 bucks and the XAU was only up about a half a point. We have run into resistance here for the XAU. I think it will break through eventually but not just yet. Gold has rallied strong this week but the gold shares seemed to move in advance of it. I do want to get long there though. Mentally I just got back from the dentist so my mind is clouded by that. I think a trade is here, it's a matter of if I can get it in the morning. We'll see.
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
The Dow lost 50 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. We should see the summation index turn down here. But this has happened before and the market steamed ahead. We are short term oversold here and I expect the market to move higher in the near term. However after a few days here it could get interesting to the downside. It may be time to buy some puts next week. We'll see. It was an interesting day for gold as it rose $13 and NEM came out with good earnings. However the XAU was basically unchanged. The volume was very heavy on the gold shares. ABX reports tomorrow. We are at resistance here for the XAU. But I would think we would bust through with all the volume. NEM was up about 40 cents but was much higher earlier. Don't know what to make of it all but I would like to get long some gold stocks on a pullback. When there is good news and the market doesn't rally on it, it usually means a decline of some sort is coming. But who knows? Getting back to the overall market perhaps the players are beginning to figure out that a slowdown is coming. That's what I think. But it's just a guess. The momentum market we have just experienced could be over and they never end good. Mentally I think I might be about to get a handle on things here but we'll have to see how things play out. A lower dollar will help support the price of gold also and it could be a place to hide if we get a substantial pullback. But that all remains to be seen at this point. Employment report on Friday will probably be the next market mover.