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Wednesday, November 01, 2006

The Dow lost 50 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. We should see the summation index turn down here. But this has happened before and the market steamed ahead. We are short term oversold here and I expect the market to move higher in the near term. However after a few days here it could get interesting to the downside. It may be time to buy some puts next week. We'll see. It was an interesting day for gold as it rose $13 and NEM came out with good earnings. However the XAU was basically unchanged. The volume was very heavy on the gold shares. ABX reports tomorrow. We are at resistance here for the XAU. But I would think we would bust through with all the volume. NEM was up about 40 cents but was much higher earlier. Don't know what to make of it all but I would like to get long some gold stocks on a pullback. When there is good news and the market doesn't rally on it, it usually means a decline of some sort is coming. But who knows? Getting back to the overall market perhaps the players are beginning to figure out that a slowdown is coming. That's what I think. But it's just a guess. The momentum market we have just experienced could be over and they never end good. Mentally I think I might be about to get a handle on things here but we'll have to see how things play out. A lower dollar will help support the price of gold also and it could be a place to hide if we get a substantial pullback. But that all remains to be seen at this point. Employment report on Friday will probably be the next market mover.

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