Moving to the upside to begin the week as the Dow rose 366 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to slow its downward movement as we are at the zero line. My guess is that it will be successful and turn around barring any unforseen catastrophe. Stock markets opened with a gap higher and it was off to the races from there. The NASDAQ led the way higher by finishing up over 2%. It finally hit a new all time high. The S&P 500 was up over a hundred points. The short term indicators there are moving up and are not yet completely overbought. Buyers have returned and it appears that sellers have lost control. Gold dipped $41 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates lower. The XAU dropped 4 3/4, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are heading lower. Would like to see GDX get back to completely oversold before trying the October calls there. Markets rarely cooperate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was flat today which isn't exactly what you want to see with such a strong market. In oversold territory for the short term indicators on the VIX but there is some room to go lower. Not a lot of economic data out this week. A US/China meeting on Thursday will be the most watched factor for the next few days. It appears that the selling has concluded and the S&P 500 should follow the NASDAQ to new all time highs at some point this week. The Dow on the other hand is pretty far from that. Option premiums are high so we will wait and see on the next trade for now. Asia and Europe were up as money is finding a home in stocks now around the globe. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We opened up with a gap higher and spent the rest of the day in a sideways channel. However the Dow fell 95 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted light gains with the NASDAQ leading the way. The short term indicators for the S&P are at mid-range with some beginning to stall. Todays breadth was not good but I still think that the market goes higher from here. But getting this close to the zero line in the summation index could really spell trouble so we'll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold was off $16 on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on below average volume. The short term indicators for GDX are still trending higher. Considering the GDX October calls as the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators here continue to move down. Another reason not to get too bearish here. The market is still at risk from the next Iran conflict headline but at least we've got the Fed and inflation data behind us for the time being. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend as we roll into the October option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Bouncing back today as the Dow gained 316 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two trading sessions and today fulfills that. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were up over 1%. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned up from oversold territory. Out next task is to figure out if this is just another bounce out of nowhere as we work our way lower or the start of something more sustained to the upside. I'm inclined to think that it's the latter as most of the medium term indicators are now oversold and in areas that previously denoted more than just a short term bottom. However with the summation index in close proximity to the zero line, we can't rule out a further decline at the moment. We also do not know how much of the price action today was option expiration related. The game is never easy and we will be rolling over to the October option cycle so premiums will be high. Gold finished flat on the futures but its recent decline has subsided. The US dollar was barely lower and interest rates dipped. The gold shares followed the market higher. The XAU gained 13 points and GDX was up 3 1/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are now pointing up. I'm still considering the GDX October calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are moving down with room to go. The daily chart here appears that it wants to go lower which would support more gains in stocks. The fact that the VIX couldn't make it above its 200 day moving average is another sign that the bulls could be on the verge of taking charge here. We'll see. Europe was up and Asia mixed overnight. Expiration Friday on tap tomorrow.

Volatility returned as the Fed raised rates as most expected. The Dow fell another 631 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to drop. The Dow led the way lower as it has recently. A final hour rally kept things from being worse. The NASDAQ was barely lower and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a modest loss and finished off of its lows as well. The short term indicators there remain oversold. Two days left in the September option cycle and if I was a short term trader I'd consider the SPY calls. But the short term trades are not my best efforts. I also thought that there was a chance that the Fed would leave rates unchanged but that didn't happen. Gold was off $23 on the futures after being positive for much of the session. The US dollar was higher and most interest rates ticked up. The XAU lost 5 1/2, while GDX shed 1 1/3. The gold shares came up from their lows on the day as well. Volume was good to the downside. GDX opened with a gap higher and sold off for the rest of the day. I did adjust my order for the GDX September calls a couple of times in the morning. However gold itself was remaining pretty positive and the gold shares weren't doing anything. I canceled my order for the GDX calls and did not think it was worth the risk. Preservation of capital took over. I am looking out to the GDX October calls as it is now oversold on a short term basis. But the fundamental backdrop for gold isn't positive here with higher rates and a stronger US dollar. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but remains below its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are overbought but not completely. I'm not sure where the VIX is heading next. Stocks had a chance to fall apart at the end of the day but did not. The zero line on the summation index remains in sight. So it is a tough call as to what happens next here. The reason that I would favor the SPY calls with two days to go for the September options is the fact that we didn't see a negative close today when the market had every reason to seek one. Markets don't wait around to go down. The next two days should be interesting. Asia and Europe finished higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another day of selling ahead of the Fed as the Dow dropped 328 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. I would be remiss here if I didn't mention the summation index is getting closer to the zero line. That means there is an increased risk that the market simply starts to fall apart here. The summation index usually isn't anywhere near the zero line so the fact that we are getting close should not be ignored. It doesn't mean that the market will crash but the odds of it happening go up. The short term indicators for the S&P are trending sideways in oversold territory. Any bounces for the S&P that we've seen lately haven't gone anywhere. We also haven't seen any huge declines or panic selling yet. I am not looking to trade any SPY options the rest of this week. Gold dipped $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates continue to move up. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. They did come up from the lows of the session. My open order for the GDX September calls wasn't filled. I adjusted it but it still did not get hit. I'm leaving it out there to see what happens tomorrow morning. If GDX dips early on I will most likely buy some calls ahead of the Fed. If not I'll cancel the order and see what happens after the Fed announcement. The short term indicators for GDX are oversold so this is where I'd like to try the calls. That doesn't mean GDX will rise from here as it can stay oversold during down trends. But this is where we think it could be worth the risk with only three days left in the September option cycle so we will try and take on this idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today as the 200 day moving average continues to provide resistance. The short term indicators on the VIX are starting to move sideways. This indicator should get going one way or the other tomorrow after the Fed. Asia and Europe closed lower overnight. Wednesday should be an interesting session and I should be up for the challenge. We'll keep an eye out for any overnight news.

Players returned from the weekend in a selling mode as the Dow fell 152 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but not by much. There was a huge gap lower at the open but stocks recovered during the session. However they didn't make it back to positive territory. Finished up off the lows though. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 are now trending lower or sideways with most in oversold territory. No clear signal here and with only four days left in the September option cycle anything could happen. Retail sales due Wednesday morning but the Fed that afternoon is the main story. Not sure what to expect there with the majority of players expecting a hike. I'm not considering the SPY puts here anymore. Gold was off $84 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 11 3/4, while GDX lost almost 3. Volume was just above average. I did place an overnight order for the GDX September calls but it wasn't filled. GDX also opened with a big gap down and never recoverd. GDX is now short term oversold on some of its daily indicators. This too is a risky trade but it is the idea that I decided on trying over the weekend. It will depend on the market reaction to whatever the Fed does but getting to short term oversold on GDX was what we were looking for. I'm leaving the order out there so we'll see if it gets filled or not. If it doesn't get filled ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday, I'll cancel it. Or perhaps I'll adjust it tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are turning back up but the 200 day average proved to be resistance again. If the VIX breaks above there we could be looking at a bigger decline. Hasn't happened yet. Europe and Asia were generally lower. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Some buying for a change today as the Dow climbed 509 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues lower. The inflation data came in where expected and the market had a big gap higher at the open. The rest of the day was spent in a sideways pattern that limped home to the close. Now we have to figure out if this is the start of something to the upside or another bounce out of the blue that turns around and heads for lower lows. Once again the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 had about the same percentage move on the session. The S&P closed back above the 7600 level and some of the short term indicators have turned back up. We've got the Fed to deal with next week and a rate hike is now expected. I would not be too sure of that. Gold dipped $14 on the futures. The US dollar was barely higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX gained a point. Volume was light. I did place an order overnight for the GDX September calls in case we got some selling today but that did not happen and I canceled the order. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are almost oversold. If rates do get raised in the US next week, owning the gold share calls is probably not the best idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped which fits the positive day for stocks. Most of its short term indicators have now turned back down from overbought territory. That could mean that the decline is over. However the breadth today wasn't all that great considering the move up that we had. I will have to go over everything this weekend and determine which trading idea to take next week. Either the SPY September puts or the GDX September calls with only a week to go in the option cycle. Risky indeed. However we should definitely see some market movement post Fed. I would like to be positioned in something before that event. Or perhaps I'll remain on the sidelines. We'll see. Europe higher and Asia lower to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers remain in control as the Dow fell 316 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative again. The summation index is moving down and we will take our cues from that. It has been an orderly decline thus far as panic has yet to arrive. The inflation data for producer prices came in about where expected. The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 all dropped the same percentage. The short term indicators for the S&P continue to fall and are short term oversold now but not completely. The S&P has broken its up trend line along with closing below 7600 and its 50 day moving average. I suppose tomorrow will tell the story if we are headed for a steeper decline or perhaps if the inflation data is OK, some kind of bounce. We have missed the SPY September put trade it appears. Gold was down $96 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates jumped. The XAU lost 14 2/3, while GDX dropped around 3 1/3. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are still heading lower with room to go. I still like the idea of the GDX calls at some point before option expiration. I might even place an order for them overnight in case the inflation number comes out hot and stocks tank early in the morning. But next week might be a better time to purchase. There is also the possibility that things fall apart for the market here and gold goes along for the ride. Which would make purchasing any calls the wrong strategy. There will be a lot of risk in taking on any trade now as we are running out of time in the September option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again but stopped at its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are now overbought. Still below the 20 level. If the VIX stays overbought there will be more downside in the markets to go. That usually doesn't happen though. Interesting times but caution is advised. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how the inflation data reads and go from there.

No buyers to be found as the Dow fell 405 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The Dow continues to lead the way lower which isn't the usual case. Producer prices out tomorrow and it probably won't be good news but who knows? More weight is attached to Fridays consumer price gauge so we should see some fireworks in the marketplace then. Too late for the SPY September puts at this point unless the market goes into free fall. The S&P 500 has now barely broken through the up trend line on the daily chart that began in April. The short term indicators there are still moving down. There remains some support at the 7600 level but the mood lately has been negative and sellers have control for now. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates continue to rise. The XAU was up 4 1/2 and GDX rose a point. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are now stalling at the mid-range level. I still like the idea for the GDX September calls at some point before next weeks option expiration. However we don't have a clear technical signal one way or the other at the moment. We do not want to guess what will happen ahead of two days of inflation data. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues higher and the short term indicators are moving up. Not yet overbought here so more near term selling is not out of the question. Still well below the 20 level though. We sit on the sidelines for now as we look back and see that the big rally out of nowhere last Thursday was the time to try the September SPY puts. The thought did cross my mind but we had not seen a prior big decline ahead of it which is usually how it works. I will keep my eyes open for some type of trade before next Friday though. Asia and Europe were down overnight. We will keep an eye on the evenings news.

The Dow got crushed today as it fell 628 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues to trend lower. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next two sessions and the Dows move lower today takes care of that. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 fell to begin the week but certainly not as much as the Dow. The NASDAQ dropped the least and the bulls will point to that. Many of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower. The S&P now sits on the up trend line that began in April on the daily chart. We are at the moment of truth here. I still like the idea of the SPY September puts but it just might be too late. Inflation data on Thursday and Friday but it looks like the market isn't going to wait for that. I may place an order overnight for the SPY puts in case things reverse tomorrow. Gold was off $71 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU dipped 1 2/3, while GDX slipped around 3/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are turning lower. I do have an idea for the GDX September calls but will have to see what happens this week before taking on that trade. It would be a pretty risky one with time running out in the September option cycle but it will be based on the technical condition for GDX ahead of the Fed next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits the down market. The short term indicators here have turned back up with room to go. Still a low reading for the VIX but the gap up today could spell trouble for the bulls. Asia was lower and Europe little changed overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The employment report was much stronger than expected but stocks didn't enjoy that news as the Dow fell 272 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is stalling here. Will it turn around with a stock rally or roll back over with a market decline. Always plenty of questions with no clear answers ahead of time in this game. The Dow led things lower and that's not the most bearish scenario. The short term indicators on the S&P are now mixed. I'm waiting to see if we can move higher ahead of the inflation data next week to try the SPY September puts. No clear signal either way as of now but I'll be checking things over the long holiday weekend. Gold lost $58 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were up slightly. The XAU fell almost 7 points and GDX lost 2 1/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX took a step back today. Not sure if I'm going to trade the GDX options ahead of the data next week but might try them the following week with the Fed meeting. There really isn't a clear signal here either right now. Only nine days left in the September option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly today but remains at a very low level. The short term indicators here are oversold but not completely. Not sure what comes next for the VIX. Plenty of time this long weekend to go over the charts and get a game plan for next week. All the players should be back on Tuesday. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A good day for the bulls as the Dow climbed 624 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ led the way higher. I had expected perhaps a quiet session ahead of tomorrows jobs report but that was not the case. Probably some short covering in there with the buyers. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up. If we continue to rally from here, new all time highs could be on the table for next week. I am still considering the SPY September puts though if things line up for that idea ahead of the inflation data due out late next week. However we also have to consider that the support at 7600 on the S&P held up and the up trend line that started in April is still intact on the daily chart. Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained $105. The US dollar fell sharply and interest rates dipped. The XAU added 12 1/4, while GDX was up 3 7/8. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned around from the mid-range level. I canceled my open order for the GDX September calls as it appears that GDX is not going to get completely oversold as I had hoped. Another missed opportunity but we will wait and see if GDX can get above the recent highs. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower which fits an upside day for stocks. The short term indicators here are heading down but not yet completely oversold. Not sure what to expect with the market reaction to the jobs report but if today is any indication stocks will most likely continue higher. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week ahead of a long weekend tomorrow.

Some buyers returned to action today as the Dow was up 295 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still heading lower. The Dow led things higher and that isn't the most bullish outcome. We had a rally early on and then traded sideways for the rest of the session. The S&P 500 is still above the support at 7600. Its short term indicators are trying to turn back up. My guess is that we'll be in a holding pattern tomorrow ahead of Fridays jobs report. Gold was up $36 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower as were interest rates. The XAU was up 11 3/4 and GDX added almost 3. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall at the mid-range level. I did place an overnight order for the GDX September calls but it will take more of a drop in GDX for it to get filled. But I do have to wonder if this is the place for that trade if the mid-range level on the indicators proves to be support. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and some of its short term indicators have turned back down. The daily candlestick chart here now looks like it wants to go lower. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Simply waiting for the employment report at this point unless some overnight news gets things going early tomorrow. A long weekend on the horizon but everybody should be back at their desks by Tuesday. Asia and Europe closed lower overnight. I'll keep watch on the overnight developments.

Heading down as the Dow fell 419 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led things down and that is not a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent drop and the short term indicators here are now more oversold. It remains above the support at 7600. It appears that it is too late for the SPY September puts but you never know. Gold fell $107 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 15 3/4, while GDX shed 3 3/4. Volume was good to the downside here. The short term indicators on GDX are moving down but are not yet short term oversold. When it gets there we will most likely try the GDX September calls. That is the plan at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are moving up but not yet overbought. Still far below the 20 level on the VIX. With the summation index moving down the path of least resistance is lower. The key is what happens at 7600. There is support from previous tops along with the near term up trend line that began in April. We should know what happens by the end of the week. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.