Friday, December 30, 2011
We ended the year on a down note as the Dow fell 69 points on holiday light volume. The advance/declines were negative. No real news of the day or anything else to report. All the players will be back next week after another long weekend. GE was off 1/8. I'm carrying the GE calls that I own into the new year. That was the plan and I'm sticking to it. I'm expecting the stock indices to move higher in the beginning of 2012 and GE should go along for the ride. GE's earnings come out on January expiration Friday but I won't be holding them that long. At least I hope not. Gold had good day, up $25 on the futures and it was higher than that during day. The US dollar was weaker. The XAU was up only 1 1/4 though. ABX was flat, GG up 3/4 and NEM fell 1/3. A mixed bag to be sure. Volume was light. I'm pretty sure that I'm going to try the gold share calls in the beginning of January. I just need to see a decent signal in the Gold/XAU ratio. We'll see if that happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Today puts a close to the 2011 trading year. My trading account gained about 65% for the year. It should have been better and it could have been worse. At least it wasn't a repeat of last years debacle. But it really doesn't matter. Win or lose, it's over and done with. The only thing relevant now is the trading for 2012. You have to keep trying to move forward in the game and sometimes it isn't easy. The only thing that I can say for sure is that you've got to keep doing the work. Day in and day out. Week in and week out. Month in and month out. Year in and year out. There are no shortcuts. Do that and you might have a chance. Don't do it and your doomed. My general scenario at the moment is to be looking for strength in the stock indices at the beginning of the year. That should give me an opportunity to dump the GE calls. I'd also like to try the gold share calls for the January option cycle as we still have three weeks to go there. That's about all on my radar screen for now. We're still subject to headline risk out of Europe with their ongoing debt problems. Trouble there could pop up at any time. However for now it's the last Friday afternoon of 2011 and time for a rest. Here's wishing everyone a prosperous trading year in 2012.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 135 points on holiday light volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive. We had the opposite of yesterdays action today. I don't think that it means much in the overall scheme of things. Just trying to muddle through this light volume week. I still think we will be going higher in the beginning of next year. GE gained 1/4 and we're still overbought here. Nothing much to do with the calls here but to wait for next year. Gold was the story of the day again as it fell almost $25 on the futures. Came back a bit in the aftermarket. The US dollar was a bit weaker today. However the XAU rose 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by 7/8. Will the gold shares lead the precious metal higher? Don't know. There is a positive RSI divergence with ABX on the daily charts. The Gold/XAU ratio isn't near a buy signal here though. I would like to try the gold share calls and perhaps next week will present an opportunity. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. Just waiting for the week to end. Tomorrow should be a non event.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Moving lower today as the Dow lost 140 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. Bad news out of Europe this morning, at least that was the perception. The market is still hostage to the headlines as it has been for quite some time. Working off the overbought condition in the stock indices is my take on things at the moment. I could be wrong as usual. It's still a holiday mode market until next week. GE was off 1/8 on light volume again. My GE calls are losing ground but I'm still holding on until next year. That has been the plan and I'm sticking to it for now. Gold took another hit today, the futures were off $30 and fell another $10 in the aftermarket. The US dollar rose on the weaker European debt perception. The XAU was off 6 1/3. ABX down 1 1/4, GG off 1 2/3 and NEM dropped 2. Volume picked up to the downside. Could be the final tax-loss selling for the year or we could be starting another leg down in gold. Not sure but I still would like to try the gold share calls again early next year. Haven't gotten the Gold/XAU ratio signal yet but we are getting close. Trying not to do anything this week. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. Just hanging around for the rest of the year. Light volume skews the moves this week. Markets are in holiday mode. 2 trading days to go.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
A slow holiday trading session as the Dow lost 2 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were about even. I'd expect more of the same for the rest of the week as we are in holiday mode. I think there will be a downside bias, since we are short term overbought. I do not expect a lot of news out of Europe or anywhere else this week. GE dropped about 1/4 on light volume. My GE calls are still in the black. I would expect some weakness here as well and that would relieve the overbought condition that we're in for GE. I still will be holding this trade into the new year. Gold fell $10 on the futures today and the US dollar dropped a touch. The XAU lost 2 1/2. ABX and NEM fell 1/2, while GG shed 2/3. Volume extremely light. I am looking at the gold share calls again for January. Oversold and staying there for the gold shares. When the Gold/XAU ratio hits the buy point, I will give this trade a shot. Mentally I'm feeling OK, it was a nice long break from the trading action. Not much to do but get ready for next year at this point. I'll be keeping an eye on things but I don't expect any surprises this week. I expect some drift lower, that's about it.
Friday, December 23, 2011
The Santa Claus rally lives on as the Dow gained 124 points today on very light holiday volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Summation index moving to the upside, implying higher prices going forward. Trying to get through overhead resistance here on the stock indices but the volume is light. The Dow is the leader right now and that usually isn't bullish. I'd like to see the small stocks take the lead but it hasn't happened. Overbought on the stock indexes. GE gained 1/8 on light volume. Very overbought here and some pullback would be healthy for going forward in January. My GE calls remain in the black and we've hit the initial target that I had in mind. I'm holding on until next year for now. Gold dropped a few bucks on the futures in quiet trading. The US dollar was basically flat on the day. The XAU gained a point. ABX up 1/8, GG rose 3/8 and NEM tacked on 7/8. Volume was extremely light. Oversold, staying there and perhaps next week I'll try the gold share calls again. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. All was pretty positive for the stock indices this week except for the low volume. The trend is up. Gold just hung around all week after its recent debacle. Probably more of the same is in store there. A long holiday weekend is on tap and next week should be slow too as we wait for the new year. It's the first Friday afternoon in winter and time for a break.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Moving to the upside as the Dow gained 62 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving back to the upside. It looks as though the Santa Claus rally has begun. Of course it could all turn around tomorrow if something negative comes out of Europe. We are right at resistance lines on the major stock indices, below them on the small stocks. We would have to get through them on good volume to continue higher in my opinion. I'm still a believer in higher stock prices going forward. GE continues to amaze as it gained 3/8 today on good volume. We have reached what was my target at $18. I'm going to continue to hold onto the calls into next year as I originally planned. GE is very overextended here and some type of pullback would be helpful for continuing to hold on. However with the price moving higher on good volume, the trend is clearly up. The GE calls I have are still in the black and continue to gain ground. Gold lost a few bucks in the futures and 5 more in the aftermarket. The US dollar bounced around and finished the day about where it started. The XAU fell 1 1/4. ABX and GG lost 1/3 but where lower during the session. NEM dropped 1 7/8. Volume was light. I'm still looking at the January gold share calls but that is about it. I don't plan on attempting this trade until a decent signal presents itself. That is the plan. The gold shares are pretty oversold and staying that way. Mentally I'm feeling tired once again as I did not sleep well. Tomorrow is a Friday before a long holiday weekend and I would not expect any big moves. It should be a slow affair. Next week should be about the same. Unless something occurs in Europe. If that is the case, anything could happen.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
We were negative for most of the day but came back by the close to finish with a gain of 4 points on the Dow. The advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. Today the headlines out of Europe weren't viewed as favorable, hence the weakness. So back and forth we go. I still feel that higher stock index prices are in the future, with the future being the next few months. The smaller stocks didn't do well today and they are usually the leaders at this time of the year. On the other side of the coin, the transports are just about to break their overhead resistance. If that happens it will be bullish for the overall market. GE continues to show incredible relative strength in my opinion, up 3/8 today on good volume. And I'm not just saying that because I own some GE calls. GE could be a harbinger of better stock prices going forward as well. Still very overbought here short term. We are approaching the price target that I had in mind for this trade. May have to readjust expectations. The calls I have are still in the black. Gold was down $4 on the futures today. The US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU was flat. The gold shares were mixed, with ABX and NEM showing fractional gains. GG lost 2/3. Volume was light. I'm still trying not to put on a trade here yet. I'm waiting for the signal from the Gold/XAU ratio, if it happens. Plenty of time in the January option cycle with the extra week tacked on. There are 3 days off for holidays though. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. I would expect some drift here for the rest of the week as we approach the Christmas holiday. It's a time to be patient in my opinion.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Positive headlines out of Europe led to a rally today as the Dow gained 335 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 7 to 1 positive. It remains a headline driven market environment. We were short term oversold on the stock indices though. We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow. It certainly isn't the quiet pre-holiday week that I expected. It's possible that the summation index will turn around with more positive activity this week and that would be bullish. Hasn't happened yet. GE was up 3/8 on light volume. We remain overbought here. That won't last forever. My GE calls are still in the black. Haven't yet reached the target that I have in mind and I would like to hold this trade into the new year. That is the current and ongoing game plan. Gold found some buyers today as the US dollar took a hit. Gold was up $20 on the futures. The XAU gained 6 1/3. ABX and NEM were up 1 1/2, while GG rose 1 1/8. Volume was light. We never fully reached the Gold/XAU ratio buy signal yesterday but it was close. We'll have to see were we go from here. The technicals are still oversold on the gold shares, even with todays action. I'm trying to hold off on buying some gold share calls here. We'll see. I would like to see some sideways consolidation after the recent downdraft in gold before trying the calls here again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we had a nice up move in the stock indices today and that at least fits in with my higher not lower stock price theory going forward. It could all change tomorrow though in this type of atmosphere. I'd like to see some follow through. I don't foresee any more trades for this year since there is nothing pressing on the radar screen at the moment. I'll try and remain patient here and not do anything stupid. Doesn't always work out that way.
Monday, December 19, 2011
We started the week on a down note as the Dow fell 100 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. Trying to hold the 50 day moving average in the Dow. We are moving toward the daily uptrend line that began in October. Whether or not that line holds will be the key. I do believe that it will but that doesn't mean that it will. Summation index still heading lower. Moving to getting oversold on the daily stock index technicals. I'd like to think that we are setting things up for a Santa Claus rally. GE fell 1/8 on light volume. GE is still holding up well compared to the overall market. Overbought here though and some type of decline is overdue. My GE calls remain in the black. Holding them until further notice. Gold bounced around today and ended up nearly unchanged. The US dollar had a slight gain. The XAU dropped 4 1/4. ABX fell 1/3, GG down 1 3/4 and NEM lost 1 1/8. Volume was average. The Gold/XAU ratio is almost at the buy signal and that is worrisome for me because I may put on another gold share call trade. Worrisome because gold and the gold shares have really broken down here and technical damage has been done. They could remain oversold for a while, in which case they will continue lower and buying the calls won't work. So I am going to try and remain on the sidelines and patient here. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. I'm anticipating a slow week but it hasn't started off that way. As I said before, my thoughts on the markets lately have been way off. I am going to try and wait until next year to put on any new trades but you never know. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Another rally that fizzled, as the Dow fell 2 points today on heavy volume. We were up 100 early. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. We got through option expiration and now we are entering holiday mode in my opinion. I'm expecting less volatility and more drift. It's still a headline driven game for now but I do expect less of that until next year. I could be wrong and have been lately. GE was up about 20 cents on average volume. Overbought here now. My GE calls are still profitable. I'm a holder until next year until further notice. Gold had a bounce today, the futures were up 20 bucks. The US dollar dropped a bit. The XAU rose 2 3/4 but was higher early. ABX and GG were both up 80 cents, while NEM rose 1/2. Volume was average for lately. I don't think we will be getting a sustained rally in the gold shares yet. I still want to try the calls again but not now. I think that waiting for the Gold/XAU ratio to hit the buy signal would be prudent. If and when that occurs, along with oversold technicals, could be the point to try the calls here again. There is no rush for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It was a losing week for me as gold got slaughtered right after I purchased the ABX calls. As I said before, that is probably the last trade for me to put on this year. I expect things to quiet down into the new year as the holidays arrive. There's also an extra week in the January option cycle and the premiums are high. It's a time to be patient in my opinion. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
We tried to move higher today but didn't have much success. The Dow gained 45 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. We bounced at the open and then drifted for the rest of the day. The market is still preoccupied with Europe and that isn't going away anytime soon. Summation index still heading down, implying lower prices. Option expiration tomorrow. The technicals on the stock indices aren't overbought or oversold. Perhaps drift is the best we can expect at this point. The economic data came out with what looks to be better than expected numbers. No OEX trades in mind at the moment. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. GE is holding up well here and the GE calls I own are still in the black. Gold continued lower today after yesterdays collapse. The precious metal fell about $10 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. This happened despite the US dollar losing some ground today. The XAU was off 2 points. ABX lost 1/2, GG down 1/8 and NEM was up 1/8. Volume was average. I would expect some type of near term bounce in gold and the gold shares. If I hadn't just tried the ABX calls and lost I would probably try them again here. However my confidence is low. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying to put the ABX loss behind me. It really doesn't mean anything going forward. The next trade and managing the GE trade are what's important now. My ideas lately haven't panned out. So like I said yesterday, I'm probably done trading for the year. But you never know. The stock indices are drifting lower here and are approaching a 1 1/2 month uptrend line on a daily basis. Whether or not that line holds will be the key to near term direction. Gold has fallen out of bed and it will take some time to recover from that in my opinion. We'll see what kind of expiration we get tomorrow and then look forward to the weekend.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Continuing lower today as the Dow lost 131 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The technicals have rolled over, which isn't bullish. The dropping euro is todays excuse for the negative action in the stock indices. The positive action that I expected hasn't taken place. My take on things here has been wrong. However I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward. GE bucked the trend and was up about 1/4 on good volume. The GE calls I own are still in the black. I like the relative strength of GE here but anything can happen. I still plan on holding the GE calls until next year but everything is subject to change. Gold was the story of the day again as the futures collapsed by almost $80. The US dollar was higher once again. The XAU was off 5 1/4, which wasn't too bad considering the carnage in gold itself. ABX down 2, GG lost a buck and NEM fell 1 1/2. Volume was very heavy. Today could be the washout for the gold shares and a bounce would be due. However I simply dumped the ABX calls that I bought yesterday for a 45% loss. This is a trade that isn't going to work, even with a bounce. Another loser and I'll probably end the trading year on that note. Oversold and staying there for the gold shares. Technical damage has been done on the downside for gold and it will probably take a while to repair. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We are approaching a near term uptrend line in the stock indices, so we'll have to see if it holds. Summation index heading lower and that is not good for the long side. Expiration week has had a downside bias so far and it's usually just the opposite. GE is holding up well. Nothing positive to say about the ABX trade. Sometimes you're just wrong. Volatility has picked up and I didn't expect that either. My guess is that things would slow down as the holidays approached and that wasn't right either. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
We got the Fed and the market didn't like what it heard. At least that is one of the excuses for todays drop as the Dow fell 66 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were up over 100 and down over 100 during the day as some volatility returned. Getting short term oversold. I did expect a decent up day early this week and haven't seen it yet. Perhaps my read of things is still off. Wouldn't be the first time. However I don't expect the stock indices to fall apart here and I'm still looking for higher prices medium term. GE lost a touch on average volume. My GE calls are still in the black but the profit has eroded so far this week. If GE is a proxy for the overall market again, then things may pan out as I expect. GE is holding up rather well so far this week. But there's still 3 days left before expiration. Gold was active to the downside once again as it lost $5 on the futures but got clobbered in the aftermarket to the tune of another $30. The US dollar broke out to new recent highs after the Fed announcement. The weakness in the Euro, the flight to safety and the relative strength of the US economy are helping the bullish cause for the dollar in my opinion. How long that lasts is anybodies guess. The XAU 6 points and broke a 2 month uptrend line. ABX off 1 1/4, GG lost 1 3/4 and NEM down 2 1/8. Volume increased to the downside and that could be ominous for getting long. Gold will have to have some kind of reversal by the end of the week or it will be breaking longer term uptrend lines that have been in place for years. That said, I was filled on the January ABX call order that I had in place. Not sure this is the proper trade for right now. I got the price that I wanted but it won't matter if we go into a free fall with gold. And that's what it looks like so far this week. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. Interesting action in the stock indices today and it doesn't look bullish. Todays action also should turn the summation index down. So maybe I'm wrong about prices going higher as we move forward. Time will tell. Gold acts like it's breaking down here as well. I'm in the ABX call trade now as well as the GE calls. We'll see what happens overnight in Europe and go from there.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Today the market didn't like what it heard from Europe and we were down 162 points on the Dow. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative and the volume was pretty light. We were down over 200 for much of the day. I still think we will see higher prices going forward. I also think we will see a solid up day this week and sooner rather than later. That is what the technicals look like to me. I could be wrong. We've got the Fed this week, plenty of economic data and option expiration. Things could get volatile however the light volume today was interesting but it may or may not mean anything. I'm thinking that there weren't a lot of sellers. GE lost 3/8 on lighter than lately volume. My GE calls are still in the black but lost some ground today. I'm still holding them and plan to into next year. Gold was the story of the day as it got pummeled on the sharply higher US dollar. The yellow metal fell about 50 bucks on the futures but made a slight comeback in the aftermarket. The XAU declined 6 7/8 but we were lower. ABX and GG off around 2 bucks and NEM dropped 1 2/3. We were lower here as well, with volume average. I placed an overnight order in for some January ABX calls and it wasn't filled. I'm leaving the order good until canceled. Not sure this is the right trade to do but I'm willing to take the risk at the price that I want. There was some interesting volume on some of the ABX January calls. Also getting oversold now on the gold shares. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. We started the week to the downside on the stock indices and we'll see if we get any follow through. It still remains a headline driven environment. Gold took a huge dive as well as it looks like the US dollar could move to new recent highs. We are right on the cusp. We'll see what Europe does overnight and go from there.
Friday, December 09, 2011
A bounce back to the upside as the Dow gained 186 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. Europe announced another rescue plan as that saga never seems to end. Could it all change by Monday? Who knows? We're still overbought on the technicals for the stock indices but when we're in rally mode that doesn't matter as much. I still think we are going to see higher prices next week. We've got the Fed next week along with plenty of economic data. GE was up 1/2 on average volume. Overbought here as well. The calls I own are still in the black. Plenty of time left on this trade. Gold was up a couple of bucks or so on the futures as the US dollar fell. The XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX was up 1/4, GG lost a touch and NEM gained 7/8. Volume here was light. I canceled the open order for the January ABX calls. I'll probably try again next week. We aren't oversold yet on the gold shares. The ideal scenario would be some weakness next week as gold itself moves down to its uptrend line at about $1680. Of course the ideal scenarios rarely pan out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Another factor to consider with trading at this point is the upcoming holiday period. Things will probably slow down. That usually doesn't bode well for the options as time premium gets taken out. It's something to consider. Expiration week is next week. I still think I'll try the January gold share calls at some point before the end of the year. Unless gold for some reason just falls apart here. I don't expect that to happen but we are getting near the long term uptrend line and there doesn't seem to be the interest that there used to be. So we'll see. I'm looking for higher prices in the stock indices next week. I'll continue to hold the GE calls. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's Friday afternoon in the winter and time for a break.
Thursday, December 08, 2011
We got some downside today as the Dow dropped 198 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The rumblings from Europe are now that whatever they do tomorrow won't be enough. Or perhaps tomorrow everything will be OK. That is the kind of game we're playing at the moment. I have no idea what will happen, as usual. We're overbought on the stock indices, so some downside is to be expected. I do not think this is the beginning of a huge move lower. I still think that declines can be bought. However in this type of news driven environment anything is possible. That is what makes the trading even more difficult than usual. GE fell almost 1/2 on average volume. The calls I own are still in the black but lost some ground today. I'm still a believer in this trade and I intend on holding them for now. The idea is to remain in this trade until next year. We'll see. Gold fell today as the US dollar rallied. The precious metal was down around $30 on the futures. The XAU fell 6 2/3. ABX and GG slumped 1 1/2, while NEM dropped 1 2/3. Volume was about average for what we've seen lately. I did place an order for some ABX January calls and left it in overnight. If we continue lower this trade might get filled. The gold shares aren't completely oversold yet, so it may be early for this idea to work out. I'll readjust tomorrow. If the US dollar begins to rally now due to Europe, it won't be bullish for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we finally got the expected downside today. I really do not think that it will last too long. The technicals I look at are pointing to some decent upside at some point next week. But I could be wrong and often am. 6 days to go on the December option cycle. I do not foresee any short term trades before expiration but that could change as well. I'll check the charts again tonight and take it from there.
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
The Dow continues moving higher as it continues to be overbought. We gained 46 points on the most widely watched stock index today on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow once again. We sold off in the morning but the market just keeps chugging higher. There was news of yet another European bailout late in the session. I still think we need some pullback or consolidation but what do I know? Summation index is heading higher. Another European summit meeting on Friday, so that will be the market mover in a couple of days. GE was flat on the day with good volume. The GE calls are still profitable and there's still plenty of time to go. Gold gained around $13 today as the US dollar was flat on the day. The XAU was up 1/8. ABX was flat on the day, GG lost 1/8, while NEM was up 1/2. Volume was light. I thought about getting the ABX calls today. However we are mid range the technical indicators, with no actual buy or sell signal. There isn't a solid signal from the Gold/XAU ratio either. I would like to do this trade but it is probably better to wait. I could be wrong and often am. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. 7 days left in the December option cycle and we are still in a headline driven market. I suppose the best course of action here would be to let Fridays European announcement happen and gauge the markets reaction. I'm still looking for some weakness before we head higher near term. I know that it sounds like a broken record but that is what the technicals look like to me at the moment. I'm going to wait on the gold share trade here and that might not be the right move either. Obviously I don't have a good handle on what is going on at the moment.
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
The Dow gained 52 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We were up over 100 but fell back in the final hour. The short term overbought condition remains in place and we are moving to medium term overbought as well. Overdue now for some type of decline. I'm not saying it will be a dramatic drop like we saw recently but something to consolidate the gains and relieve the overbought condition. We'll see. GE rose 1/3 on good volume. There was some kind of analyst upgrade for the stock as the excuse for the rise. We've been kind of moving in a straight line up here on GE and that certainly can't last. The GE calls are still in the black and plenty of time left. I have a target in mind and we aren't there yet. Gold was down a couple bucks on the futures after being much lower. We rallied in the aftermarket. The US dollar bounced around and finished about unchanged. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX and GG were both up around a buck and NEM rose 3/4. Volume was light. May have missed the chance to get the calls here as we filled in the gap at $50 on ABX. However the Gold/XAU ratio is not near the buy zone and we aren't oversold as of yet. I would still like to try the gold share calls on weakness if we get any. Probably best to go out to January, since there are only 8 days left in the December option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It still looks to me as if we are putting in a minor top here on the stock indices and the Dow transports were negative today. They are sometimes a leader of the overall market. I have no OEX trades in mind for now but would consider getting some calls for expiration week if we see some near term weakness. However the short term trades are not usually my best efforts. I'm going to try and remain patient for the gold shares. We'll see what happens overseas tonight and go from there.
Monday, December 05, 2011
Not sure what to make of todays action as the Dow gained 78 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. We were up about twice as high during the session. I would expect some type of pull back or consolidation here as we are short term overbought. However medium term I'm looking for higher stock prices and should plan my trades accordingly. Sounds good in theory. Not a lot of economic data this week so the headlines from Europe will drive the action. GE was up 1/4 on average volume. I'm still holding on to the GE calls and they're still in the black. Plenty of time left on this trade. Gold lost $16 on the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket. The US dollar lost ground as well. Perhaps the flight to safety trade is being taken off. That's a guess as usual. The XAU fell 7/8. ABX and NEM dropped around 3/4 and GG lost 1/3. Volume was light. I still would like to try the gold share calls for January at some point. However we aren't oversold here yet. So I'll try and be patient here. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. The week has started off to the upside and we'll just have to see how long that will continue. Waiting on news from Europe later in the week. Gold was down today and the daily technicals are rolling over. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Friday, December 02, 2011
We opened higher and were positive for the whole day but by the close we were basically unchanged for the day. The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We were up over 100 points in the morning. The employment report was in line with expectations with a surprise drop in the jobless rate. We won't discuss how the government can massage the numbers. We only care about making money via trading. We are now short term overbought on the stock indices. Unless Monday is a solid up day, we are looking like a short term top is in place. Any weakness can be bought in my opinion. GE was up fractionally on average volume. My calls are still in the black. Gold was up $10 on the futures even with strength in the US dollar. The XAU however fell 5 1/2 points. I'm not sure what that's about. ABX and NEM were off 1 3/4, while GG lost 2 1/8. Volume was average. I would still like to get some January gold share calls but todays price action doesn't fit with what was expected near term. I will have to reconsider things as I look at the charts over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or long enough. It was a very positive week for the stock indices. The summation index has not turned up just yet but I believe that it will soon. I think we could be lower early next week but I feel the trend has turned back up for the stock markets. I could be wrong. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a game plan for the gold shares. The sun is setting on Friday afternoon and it's time for a rest.
Thursday, December 01, 2011
A day to digest yesterdays huge market gains as the Dow lost 25 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. We're getting short term overbought but if this is really a strong market, that won't matter much. I believe we are in another uptrend but subject to headline risk as is the usual lately. The employment report will be out tomorrow. I have no idea what that will bring but we will watch the markets reaction. No OEX trades in mind at the moment, perhaps some calls for expiration week. GE was flat on the day with lighter volume. The calls I own are still in the black. Still stuck at the 50 day moving average line here. Gold fell $10 in the futures but came back in the aftermarket. The XAU was off 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves one way or the other on lighter volume. I still want to get some gold share calls even after the recent run up. I'd like to see some pullback and we got very little today. Perhaps there will be an opportunity next week. Otherwise I'll just have to chalk it up as another missed trade. Hopefully that won't be the case. The US dollar was flat on the day. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. It's been quite a positive week for the stock indices so we'll see how we end things tomorrow. It's possible that the employment report could be another non-event as it has been lately. We'll see. I'll be keeping an eye on the gold shares for an entry point but like I said before, it will probably be better to wait until next week. On to tomorrow.