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Tuesday, December 13, 2011

We got the Fed and the market didn't like what it heard. At least that is one of the excuses for todays drop as the Dow fell 66 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were up over 100 and down over 100 during the day as some volatility returned. Getting short term oversold. I did expect a decent up day early this week and haven't seen it yet. Perhaps my read of things is still off. Wouldn't be the first time. However I don't expect the stock indices to fall apart here and I'm still looking for higher prices medium term. GE lost a touch on average volume. My GE calls are still in the black but the profit has eroded so far this week. If GE is a proxy for the overall market again, then things may pan out as I expect. GE is holding up rather well so far this week. But there's still 3 days left before expiration. Gold was active to the downside once again as it lost $5 on the futures but got clobbered in the aftermarket to the tune of another $30. The US dollar broke out to new recent highs after the Fed announcement. The weakness in the Euro, the flight to safety and the relative strength of the US economy are helping the bullish cause for the dollar in my opinion. How long that lasts is anybodies guess. The XAU 6 points and broke a 2 month uptrend line. ABX off 1 1/4, GG lost 1 3/4 and NEM down 2 1/8. Volume increased to the downside and that could be ominous for getting long. Gold will have to have some kind of reversal by the end of the week or it will be breaking longer term uptrend lines that have been in place for years. That said, I was filled on the January ABX call order that I had in place. Not sure this is the proper trade for right now. I got the price that I wanted but it won't matter if we go into a free fall with gold. And that's what it looks like so far this week. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. Interesting action in the stock indices today and it doesn't look bullish. Todays action also should turn the summation index down. So maybe I'm wrong about prices going higher as we move forward. Time will tell. Gold acts like it's breaking down here as well. I'm in the ABX call trade now as well as the GE calls. We'll see what happens overnight in Europe and go from there.

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