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Friday, January 30, 2009

Continuing to the downside as the Dow lost 148 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The GDP number came in better than expected but was still weak. The summation index should be back to pointing down. It seems like it is that type of market. One which is tough to trade and there is no sustainable trend one way or the other. You have to be quick to take what you can get. Gold had another good day, up over $20. The XAU however was off 1 1/2. Go figure. ABX lost a buck while GG and NEM were little changed. Volume was good again. When the metal goes up and the stocks don't follow, you have to take notice. So perhaps a pullback in gold is due. The dollar continues higher as well. However, if I feel an opportunity is at hand for the gold shares, I'll take it. Mentally I'm a bit tired. Did not sleep as well as I could have. January is over and it was a down month again. The tough times for the stock market continues. I'll take a break this weekend and get back at it on Monday.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 226 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. So we negated yesterdays positive action. The GDP report is tomorrow and I think it won't be good. How the market reacts will be the key. Perhaps we are simply in a range bound market. End of the month tomorrow as well. Gold was up over $15 and the XAU gained 5 points. ABX up over 2, GG up 1 1/2 and NEM had a gain as well. Volume was good and extremely heavy in NEM. The dollar was higher as well today and there seems to be a disconnect lately between the gold and the dollar. Gold seems to be a safe haven play as of late. I'm getting to the point that any weakness in gold should be bought but we are extended here. I'm still leaning towards the gold share calls though. I just need the guts to buy them. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trying to remain patient. Still a lot of time in the February cycle. Timing is everything sometimes. Trying to remain positive towards the trading here. Still need to focus more. Besides the gold shares I don't have any solid trading ideas going forward. I do see money continue to flow into gold so the odds favor that at the moment. I'm doing the best I can but for now that doesn't seem to be cutting it.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

The Dow rallied today, up 200 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive. We got the Fed out of the way. Next up is GDP tomorrow. I can't see that as being a good number. We are overbought short term now. However with todays action the summation index is clearly heading higher. The end of the month is upon us as well. Still plenty of time in this option cycle so I have no OEX trades in mind at the moment. Gold lost over $10 today and the XAU shed about 2 points. ABX and GG were off fractionally and NEM dropped 3. Volume was pretty good and heavy in NEM. I am going to try and wait until next week to get some gold share calls. It depends on tomorrow really. I think the market will be selling off on the GDP report and perhaps the gold shares will go with it. But that's a guess and I'll be watching what develops. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as well as I could have. I think the question now is does the rally have legs? Or are we stuck in a trading range? Time will tell. I don't have the answers. The game doesn't get any easier.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

The Dow gained another 58 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive again. The overall market is acting stronger than the Dow and that could be good for the bullish cause going forward. We are short term overbought. The summation index should be turning up after todays action though. We have the Fed to deal with tomorrow and GDP on Thursday. I have no OEX trades in mind at the moment. Gold lost $9 today and the XAU was off 2 and change. ABX and NEM lost over a buck and GG was little changed. Volume was lighter on the decline. I still like the gold shares for a February call play and am trying to time it better than the last trade. It won't be easy and there is a chance that the gold run is over for now. But that's a guess. We are overbought on the gold indices both short and longer term. However in a true bull move the indicators will remain overbought for quite some time. So we'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK, still trying to remain patient. Plenty of time in the February option cycle. My thinking at this point is to let this week pass as well but that could change. There's no rush to do anything right now. I'll keep an eye on things and take it from there.

Monday, January 26, 2009

The Dow gained 38 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We were much higher earlier in the day, sold off and then came back. Exactly where do we go from here? That is the question. I have no answer at the moment. Summation index still heading down but that could change. End of the month coming up. We aren't overbought or oversold at the moment short term. Patience will be required. Gold was up $13 on the futures today but the XAU dropped 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all down and the volume was heavy. The dollar took a beating today but the gold shares did not respond. I still think they are a buy for the February option cycle. I'm keeping my eye on them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No hurry to do anything at this point. I'll try and stay patient and take it from there. My focus is on the gold shares at the moment. So we'll see.

Friday, January 23, 2009

The Dow lost 45 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. GE was down about 1 1/2 on extremely heavy volume and that kept the market down. The overall market though was higher. It still looks like we are trying to put in a bottom here. The summation index is still heading lower so we'll have to see what next week looks like. At this point I do think we will head higher but I could be wrong. Plenty of time in this option cycle, so waiting for a decent signal is my choice at the moment. Gold had a great day, up over $35. The XAU rose over 10 points. It looks like an upside breakout on some of the gold shares. ABX up 4, GG up 2 1/2, NEM up 3 1/2. All on heavy volume. Money continues to flow into gold. I have said that repeatedly and yet I don't own any of the calls. That is frustrating to be sure. However I still feel that there is plenty of time and money to be made there. I'll probably get long on the next round of profit taking. The dollar was higher but gold seems to have a life of its own at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trying to recover still from the early year losses that I've suffered. The battle is always within. I'm trying to regain the confidence required. It hasn't been easy. For now I'll try and relax over the weekend. Check the charts and get ready for the end of the month next week. It was a short but volatile week and we''ll see if that's the case going forward. Time for a break.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

The Dow lost 105 points today but it was off around 275 at one point. Volume was good again. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. It now seems to me like the market is trying to put in a bottom here. No guarantees but that's what it looks like. The summation index is still heading down though so we'll see. It's been pretty volatile so far even though it's a short week. Gold was up $8 but the XAU dropped 1 1/2. ABX and GG were down on the day, while NEM rose. Volume continues to be good in the gold shares. Oil was flat and the dollar didn't do much either. I'm keeping an eye on the gold shares and believe at this point that my next trade will be there. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'm trying to remain patient with so much time left in the February option cycle. It isn't easy. However with a bad start to the trading year, scaling back isn't such a bad idea. GE earnings tomorrow and that stock has found support in the last couple of days on heavy volume. It should set the tone for tomorrow. On to Friday.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Finally got the bounce today as we were as oversold as it gets and have been for a few days. The Dow was up 279 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Of course it's too late for the calls I bought last week but that's the way it goes. So the next question is will it continue, will it hold? It might but time and the market will tell on that one. I certainly don't know. GE did have a one day reversal and its earnings are announced on Friday. If GE is a proxy for the market then things could get better near term. But that's just a guess and certainly not something to trade on. Gold lost $5 today but the XAU rose 3 3/4 points. ABX, GG and NEM all were higher on good volume. The dollar was weaker and oil showed strength. Yes, I'd like to get some calls here but it's too early in this option cycle in my opinion. But I could be wrong. Volume continues to be strong for the gold shares and you can't ignore that. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep as much as desired. I'm really in a holding pattern for now, trading wise. Premiums are high for the February options, so I'm in no rush. A nice bounce today and we'll see if there is any follow through.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

A new president but the same old story for the stock market as the Dow lost 332 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. Oversold and staying there. Dangerous comes to mind. We should get some type of bounce but it hasn't happened. It will but it probably won't hold. I get the feeling that another large bank is about to fail. I'll have to stay on the sidelines for now. When the normal things aren't working, there is not much you can do. It seems to be a sell anything affair again. Gold was up $17 but the XAU dropped 1/3. The gold shares were much higher earlier in the day but sold off. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1/4 and NEM up 1 3/4. Volume was extremely heavy there. Money continues to find a home in gold. Looks like a one day reversal in the gold shares though. The dollar was higher on a flight to safety. Oil rose as well. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. It looks like it will be an interesting week. Summation index is pointing down. The banking system remains in collapse. Credit markets are in ruins. We will have to see where it all ends up. It looks like the lows of last autumn will be in question. Time will tell if they hold.

Friday, January 16, 2009

The Dow gained 68 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up strong in the first 10 minutes and never got back there. We are as oversold as it gets and I am at a loss for why there is no bounce. The conventional things aren't working again and that leads me to believe that more downside is in the works. My OEX calls got killed and it's basically a 100% loss. I gave it a shot and it didn't work. Not a good start to the new year at all. I'll regroup and keep going forward. It's all I can do. Gold was the star once again, up over $30. The XAU gained 5 points. ABX, NEM up 3/4 and GG up 1 1/4. Volume was strong as well. Money continues to flow to the gold shares. Perhaps I'll try the February calls there. An extra week in the February cycle so there's no hurry. Mentally I'm a bit tired. It's a risky game and I haven't even been close on my last 2 trades. Mistakes happen so there is no use to beat myself to death. I'm concerned that the market isn't acting well here. It seems like the liquidation we saw in the fall of last year has returned. I certainly don't have the answers. I'll have to check things over during the long 3 day weekend. Take a break and start fresh on Tuesday.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

It was a crazy day today as volatility has returned to the markets. The Dow was higher by 12 points after being down more than 200. Advance/declines were about even. Volume increased. My OEX calls are losers. I do expect a good upside move tomorrow but it won't be enough to save them. Today would have been the day to purchase the calls but what can you do? We are still oversold. It will bounce tomorrow. Gold moved back and forth as well finishing the day off a touch but rallying in the aftermarket. ABX up 2, GG up 3/4 and NEM up 1 1/2. Volume was good. This could be a short term bottom in gold. I'm looking at the calls but may have missed it again. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK considering that I'm sitting on another losing trade. Slept well enough. Cutting the loss is the mode now. That should be done tomorrow morning. I'm thinking that we will be up around 200 points on the Dow tomorrow at some point. That should be my exit point. Expiration tomorrow and we'll go from there.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

The Dow got clobbered today, off 248 points. Volume picked up today and the advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. We are oversold and staying there. Volume increased on the downside move. The summation index is turning down. However, I did buy some OEX calls. Why? We will have a decent up move within the next 2 days. I believe that based on the technicals and my own work. Perhaps my timing could have been better but I think this will be a good trade. I could be wrong and often am. Gold lost about $10 and the XAU fell 5 1/2 points. ABX and GG both lost more than a buck. NEM was off 1/2. Volume was average. I'd like to get some of the gold shares but will hold off for now. Perhaps in the February cycle. GE lost another 80 cents on good volume. Nothing doing there. In fact I should probably not even list it in the blog anymore if I don't plan on trading it again. Mentally I'm tired as it has been a long trading day. I'll need a good nights rest tonight in order to have a clear mind for the task at hand tomorrow. This OEX trade is extremely time sensitive with only a couple of days to go. It won't be easy. But I do think we will bounce here and pretty good at that. So we'll see what happens.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Settling out on the day with the Dow down around 25 points on average volume. Advance/declines are just about even. 3 days until expiration and I think OEX calls are in the mix. Any weakness tomorrow can be used to take a position. We are short term oversold and will bounce between now and the close on Friday. That is my scenario going forward. I have tried to be patient here and I hope it pays off by taking a position tomorrow. We'll see. Gold was flat today but the XAU rose 2 3/4. ABX led the way up 1 3/4, while GG and NEM had fractional gains. Volume was good as demand for the gold shares remains. The dollar was stronger today as well but it didn't stop those issues from gaining ground. It's something to keep an eye on. GE dropped about a buck on heavy volume. Some type of analyst downgrade in the news. Is it a precursor for the overall market? Time will tell. Retail sales data out tomorrow and inflation news the following 2 days. Mentally I'm doing OK. I've put the GE loss behind me and am ready to move on to this OEX trade. If we see some weakness tomorrow I'm going to give it a shot. The best chance will be staying close to being in the money so that is what I will attempt to do. Stay tuned.

Monday, January 12, 2009

The Dow started the week down 125 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. We are short term oversold. We did get a slight bounce at the close. OEX calls are the preferred play here. I may give them a try but it won't be easy. 4 days left until January expiration. So it's a tough call and risky but the potential set-up is there. Gold lost $35 today and the XAU lost 7 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all lost ground but the volume was lighter than lately. The daily charts are oversold but the weeklies are overbought. So it's a tricky call at the moment. I'll need to check some other things before making a commitment here. I do like the long side though. GE had a fractional loss on light volume. My calls are dead and I dumped them for a 90% loss. They are not coming back in 4 days. Not a lot of money involved here but not the way to start off the new year. The timing stunk, the management was horrible and those are things that need to be worked on. Also staying away from GE and concentrating on the OEX might help things going forward as well. Mentally I'm not in the best of places. Still having computer issues and that is unacceptable. I'm doing the best that I can with what I've got. So on we go and I'll have to see about that potential OEX call trade.

Friday, January 09, 2009

The Dow lost 143 today on light volume. Light volume seems to be the norm now. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Opened lower, hung around all day and closed near the low. It could of been worse I suppose. Employment report not good as expected. We are getting short term oversold. I do believe there will be a decent OEX call trade at some point next week. Gold was flat today and the XAU fell 2 and change. ABX, GG and NEM all down. Volume was decent. I do want some calls here but not yet. GE dropped a touch but the time premium has been sucked out of my calls. They're done. Will be dumping shortly for a huge % loss. I thought I wrote once here before to not play GE ever again. I need to remember that. Did get an up move in the averages as thought but GE did not go along for the ride. The timing of the trade was off and it went downhill from there. Tough game. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep enough and had other commitments for most of the day. I now have a losing trade soon to be on the books and that affects things going forward. I don't want to miss the opportunity that will be presented next week. It's a challenge that I need to overcome. I'll do what I can. Right now I need some rest. Check the charts over the weekend and go from there.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

The Dow lost 27 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. It was a wait and see type of day with the employment report coming tomorrow. I can't think that there will be any good news there but the market will do what it wants. It seems to want to go higher. Gold gained $12 and the XAU rose 6 points. ABX and NEM both got back over $2. GG was up more than a buck. Volume was good. I think the gold shares are a good play if we get oversold enough. I don't know if now is that point. So I'm staying on the sidelines there. However if we get a very weak number for employment tomorrow and the dollar tanks, then gold should do well. We'll see. GE didn't do much and was up a few cents. It sold off and came back on the day. My calls are dead and unless there is a good day for GE tomorrow, they need to be sold. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. At this point it's just a matter of waiting for tomorrow and going from there. Taking losses isn't the easiest thing in the world for me to do but sometimes it's just got to be done. Tomorrow could be one of those times.

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

The Dow got pounded today as we lost 245 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. A pullback was expected but todays action begs the question that perhaps the rally is over. I'm not convinced until we see how the week ends. One day doesn't make a trend but it was pretty negative action. So we'll see. I think Friday could be key. Gold lost $25 and the dollar was weaker as well. Which could be a clue that this is one of those raise money affairs that we saw last autumn. The jury is still out. The XAU lost over 10 points. ABX and GG lost over 2 bucks and NEM shed over 4. NEM was the leader on the way up and now the reverse may be true. Volume was good. I do like getting long the gold shares down the road. GE fell 3/4 and that could be the end of that trade. The calls I own got killed today. Way under water but I will hold them until Friday. Volume light but that's the story of the new year so far. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Just trying to sit tight here and let the market call the shots. Would like to see sideways action tomorrow followed by upside on Friday but that is wishful thinking. The GE trade is going into cut the loss mode. I'm not particularly concerned at this point. Maybe I should be. 7 days until January expiration.

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

The Dow gained 62 points today. Volume was nothing special. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We really need to take a rest here. The market is very overbought. I do expect weakness going forward the next couple of days, perhaps the employment report will be a trigger to the downside. That's my guess at the moment. Gold gained $8 today and the XAU rose 2 2/3. ABX had a fractional loss, while GG and NEM had fractional gains. Volume was pretty good in these issues. I'm holding off on the gold shares for now. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. My GE calls are going nowhere, still in the red. Running out of time for this trade. If we do get some market weakness near term that could do it for the GE calls. Stay tuned. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. The new year has begun and there really haven't been any surprises one way or the other just yet. Perhaps we are on hold for Friday. That's it for Tuesday.

Monday, January 05, 2009

The Dow lost 81 points today on better volume. Advance/declines were positive though. I do expect some more downside here to relieve the current overbought condition. Perhaps it will set up an OEX option trade. We'll see. Gold lost over $20 today as the dollar had a good day to the upside. The invasion of Gaza over the weekend did not help support the gold price so take note. The XAU dropped 4 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all lost at least 1 1/2 on good volume. When the gold shares get oversold I'll be looking at the calls there again. GE fell 1/2 on better volume as well. The calls are in the red again as this has been a poorly timed trade. However I'm still a believer for now that we will see higher prices before the January expiration. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm doing OK, still on the back-up computer. I'm expecting near term weakness in the overall market and then we go higher from there. That's the guess for now. Employment report due out on Friday and that will be key going forward. The volume has been lighter than usual but after the carnage of last year that may be the norm for now. On to tomorrow.

Friday, January 02, 2009

A positive start to the New year as the Dow gained 258 points. Advance/declines were about 5 to 1. Volume was weak once again. The rally has had everything going for it except for volume and that could be a problem going forward. Maybe. Overbought and staying there which is usually a positive for the bullish cause. So we'll see what happens when everybody gets back to work next week. Gold lost $7 and the XAU was off a touch. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar was higher today. Not trades here for now but I'm keeping an eye on it. GE was up around 3/4 on light volume. It hasn't participated in the recent rally as I thought it would. Hopefully will get going to the upside with some momentum but hope isn't a good reason to trade. My calls are coming back and are almost at break even. I'm holding on for now. Mentally I'm doing OK. The back-up computer is holding up for now. It looks like trading the OEX calls instead of GE would have been the better position. Hindsight always chooses the right vehicle. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there.

Thursday, January 01, 2009

Well the results are in and the final recap for the 2008 trading year shows a gain of 43%. Winning trades were just a touch over 50%. Although they sound like good numbers, the trading again this year was erratic. I could of and should have done much better. I had some big losers, which was inexcusable. I really need to work on the discipline and dedication to the business. I did do some things right but overall there is still a lot of work to do on my trading. Which means there is a lot of work to do on myself. There will be plenty of opportunities in 2009. I'll try my best to take advantage of them.