tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65253002024-03-18T13:18:19.763-07:00Jimmybees Stock Market Trading BlogThis blog will describe Jimmybees latest Market thoughts. It also will include thoughts on Jimmybees ongoing trading.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.comBlogger5006125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-72877415625847914062024-03-18T13:17:00.000-07:002024-03-18T13:17:49.101-07:00We had a gap higher at the open and spent the rest of the day moving sideways to lower as the Dow gained 75 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues sideways. The NASDAQ was the leader to the upside. Waiting on the Fed Wednesday as that should be the big mover this week. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now approaching mid-range as the continuious overbought condition is beginning to fade. Not sure exactly what it means going forward as the market has been quite resilient. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX shed a little over 1/8. Volume remains good here. I still want to try the GDX April calls if we see a pullback in the gold shares. GDX remains short term overbought though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a touch lower today. The indicators here are mid-range so it could go either way here. Not sure what to expect next but we'll keep an eye on it. We've rolled into the April option cycle and premiums are high. Waiting on a signal for the SPY options. We'll probably let the Fed get out of the way and go from there. Asia up and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll keep watch on the overnight developments. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-29363077588709763432024-03-15T13:20:00.000-07:002024-03-15T13:20:49.679-07:00The selling continued as the Dow was off by 190 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Technical conditions have changed as the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over. I'm not sure if this is the beginning of a much needed rest or just another fake out before higher prices. The short term indicators for the NASDAQ have moved lower than the overall market. We'll probably know by next week after the Fed meeting where we're heading. For now we'll simply remain patient on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. Gold fell $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates ticked up. The XAU had a fractional gain while GDX finished unchanged. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought. If we see a decline in GDX next week I'll most likely try the calls there again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher early on but finished unchanged. The daily candlestick chart there appears to be heading lower which would be bullish for stocks. The short term technical indicators for the VIX are back to mid-range. Moving now to the April options cycle with an extra week in the time frame. Premiums are high. Hopefully after the Fed we'll have a better idea of where we're heading. I'll be going over all the charts as usual this weekend. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-64326751668709209302024-03-14T13:19:00.000-07:002024-03-14T13:19:12.068-07:00Option expiration gyrations today as the Dow fell 177 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now back to a sideways movement. The inflation data was hotter than expected but we actually opened a bit higher before selling off. The day would of ended up worse but we got the last half hour buying spree again. The Dow led the way lower and that's not the worst case scenario. The TRAN did get whacked though. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and now in a sideways configuration. We're on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. The April option cycle has an extra week in it so the premiums are high. Gold was off another dozen or so on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 1 2/3, while GDX shed over 1/3. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought and we'll need to see that condition change before attempting the April calls there. Markets rarely cooperate with our best laid plans. I'll try and remain patient with GDX here as we have a Fed meeting meeting next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but off from the best levels on the session. I'm not sure where it goes from here but the 50 day moving average seems to be the level of near term support. Expiration Friday on the docket. Would not be surprised if the SPY finished tomorrow around where it is today. At least that is what the open interest is perhaps telling us. We'll let tomorrow pass and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-79039791318551170832024-03-13T13:30:00.000-07:002024-03-13T15:44:53.431-07:00A quiet sideways session for the most part with a little volatility in the last half hour. The Dow managed a gain of 37 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving higher. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished in the red with the NASDAQ leading the way. We did get a signal yesterday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next couple of days. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow but that signal hasn't worked lately. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Inflation data tomorrow should provide a reason for market movement. I wanted to try the SPY March puts but there isn't a clear signal so I'm on the sidelines. We'll roll into the April option cycle there. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX was up almost 3/4 making up for yesterdays losses. Volume was above average. GDX is short term overbought and staying that way. It appears that GDX is poised to run up into Fridays expiration but we'll see. I still like the idea of the GDX April calls but do not want to chase it here. However if there isn't a pullback soon I may have to change my mind. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. Not sure what's next here as it closed on its 50 day moving average. An inflation surprise tomorrow will get things moving either way. If the numbers are in line most likely the market will move higher. But we'll let the market decide where it's going in the near term. Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-37247612892919508822024-03-12T13:20:00.000-07:002024-03-12T13:20:21.931-07:00The inflation data was a bit hotter than expected but the market didn't care as the rally continues. The Dow gained 235 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to trend higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. It remains short term overbought as it has been for weeks and months. Not sure how long it can go on like this but obviously it's longer than we think. Probably will not attempt any SPY trades before the end of this option expiration week. Only possibility would be the SPY March puts ahead of Thursdays inflation reoport. But we see that idea would have been a loser ahead of todays CPI data. Gold took a breather as the futures were off over $25. The US dollar ended around unchanged after being higher early on. Interest rates were up. The XAU fell 1 7/8 and GDX lost over 1/2. They did finish up from the worst levels on the session. Volume remains above average here. The gold shares remain short term overbought and are due for a rest. I still like the GDX April calls as the next trade but will try and wait for some more pullback before trying this idea. Money has been pouring into this sector so we have to believe that the rise is the start of something real to the upside. I could be wrong. Resistance at 31.5 on GDX so we should at least make it up to that level on this move. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have now rolled over. This implies more upside in the near term for stocks. We'll see. Perhaps we are just witnessing the positive expiration bias in play. Whatever the case you cannot argue with price. Asia was generally higher and Europe was up in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-64855982996063530392024-03-11T13:22:00.000-07:002024-03-11T13:22:53.803-07:00A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow rose 47 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is trending up. The Dow managed a gain today but both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 finished in the red. Awaiting tomorrow inflation data and we should move off of that. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but not at extremes. I did not purchase the SPY March puts today as we don't have a clear techincal signal to do so. Not sure what to expect from the data tomorrow but would not be surprised if it comes in worse than expected. Just a guess there. Gold finished up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and so where interest rates. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX added another 1/2. Volume was pretty good once again. GDX remains short term overbought and staying there. Money left on the table as I sold the GDX March call position too soon on Friday. We'll wait for a pullback to try the GDX April calls. There is a two year down trend line at 31.5 that should provide resistance if GDX gets there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but down from the highest levels on the session. Getting to short term overbought on the indicators but not there yet. Don't know what to expect from the VIX tomorrow. Four days left in the March option cycle. Do we dare attempt another trade before the weekend? We'll have to see how the technicals line up. Asia was mixed as Japan got whacked and Europe generally lower to start the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-25727576436092276882024-03-08T13:23:00.000-08:002024-03-09T10:49:30.581-08:00It was a one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 62 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now moving higher and out of the recent sideways channel. The jobs report came in better than expected and the market liked that. As the day wore on we had a bout of selling followed by another rally attempt before rolling over again into the close. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. The S&P 500 remains in short term overbought territory but the indicators appear to be rolling over again. However every time this has happened in the past two months buyers have reappeared. The longer term up trend line is still intact on the S&P. I still might try the SPY March puts ahead of Tuesdays inflation data but that's a decision to be figured out over the weekend. Gold was up about twenty bucks on the futures but off of the best levels on the day. The US dollar finished almost unchanged after being down early. Interest rates bounced both up and down during the session only to finish about where they started. The XAU had a fractional loss while GDX was unchanged. Both finished off of the highs for the session. Volume picked up and was good once again. I sold my GDX March calls but not sure if that was the right decision. Gold and the gold shares are due for a rest, the question is when. The gain was a little over 1000%. In plain english this trade returned better than ten times the amount traded in a week and a half. The entry was spot on but we'll have to see about the exit. However as always win or lose we move on from here. I'm considering the GDX April calls now if we see some sort of pullback in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I don't want to get too excited over the last trade because it means nothing now and you've always got to be moving forward in the game. The VIX was up today but off of its highest levels. The short term indicators still have room to go in either direction. Not getting a good feel for what will happen with the VIX next. Only a week left in the March option cycle. We'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with a profitable idea for next week. Plenty of data out highlighted by the inflation reports on Tuesday and Thursday. Asia was up and Europe generally down to close out the week in the foreign markets. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-87261778149675897482024-03-07T13:22:00.000-08:002024-03-07T13:22:42.454-08:00I thought today might be a wait and see session but the market isn't waiting for anything as the Dow gained 130 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive again. The summation index appears to be breaking out of the sideways channel to the upside. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. A new all time high for the S&P 500 as it remains short term overbought while hugging its upper Bollinger band. The trend is still up in an overbought environment. We'll see what kind of reaction there is to the employment numbers tomorrow. Gold continued its ascent adding $7 on the futures. The US dollar continued lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU rose 2 1/4, while GDX gained almost 1/2. Volume was a bit above average but less than it has been lately. Both gold and the gold shares had less volume today so perhaps this run higher is about to take a rest. My GDX March calls are still solidly in the black. I will be considering getting out of this trade before the weekend depending on the price action tomorrow. It has been a straight line up for the gold shares and that certainly won't last forever. We did not see the usual snap back to the broken trend line for GDX which let us know that the move would be stronger than normal and it has definitely has been that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was barely lower today which doesn't really fit todays market rally. The short term indicators on the VIX are now mid-range so it could go either way here. Asia generally lower and Europe higher overnight. All eyes on tomorrows jobs report as we close out the trading week.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-71680453217450698612024-03-06T13:55:00.000-08:002024-03-06T13:55:12.435-08:00Bouncing back as the Dow rose 75 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues sideways. The NASDAQ led the way but we certainly did not make up yesterdays losses. However the selling was met by buying once again and the longer term up trend line for the S&P 500 remains intact. Still short term overbought there but not as much as it has been recently. I would guess that tomorrow will be a wait and see session, with the employment data due out on Friday. Unless the Fed chairman says something different than todays testimony before Congress. I'm still thinking about the SPY March puts, perhaps next week. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains above average on the gold shares but they did finish below the highs on the session. The gold shares are due for a rest as they have gone straight up for a little over a week. They are also trading above the upper Bollinger band. Not sure how much longer to hold onto the GDX March calls. They are still showing a nice profit. Again, the management of the trade is key. Still seven days to go in the March option cycle. Gold itself has broken out to new all time highs with no overhead resistance. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was barely higher today and that doesn't fit with an up market. Now I'm not sure where it's headed next. Europe and Asia finished higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-49652012943399625872024-03-05T13:21:00.000-08:002024-03-05T13:21:43.589-08:00Sellers arrived today as we had a gap down at the open and kept going from there. A last half hour bounce kept things from being worse. The Dow fell 404 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index remains in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. Each time we've seen a drop like this over the past month or so it has never amounted to much of a decline. After todays price action the long term trend line for the S&P 500 is still intact. The short term indicators there have rolled over but will that actually mean something this time? Perhaps the negative RSI divergence will finally manifest itself as it has been the condition for the S&P although it does look like it was negated. Time will tell and we'll know by the end of the week. It's probably too late for the SPY March puts but we'll see. Gold continued higher as the futures rose $11. The US dollar finished flat again but interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. They both finished on the lows of the day and well off of their highs. The gold shares are due for a pause to digest the good gains over the past few trading sessions. Whether or not this is the top for this move remains to be seen but the gold shares are now short term overbought. The next technical expectation here would be a move back to the broken down trend line. GDX made it back to its 200 day moving average but was rebuffed. My GDX March calls are still showing a decent profit but today may have been the day to exit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and that was expected given the markets decline. The short term indicators have turned up with plenty of room to go. The VIX implies that lower stock prices are on the way. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We've got the Fed chairman in front of Congress tomorrow so we'll see how that goes.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-29822487747941204782024-03-04T13:21:00.000-08:002024-03-04T13:23:01.867-08:00We trended sideways for much of the session but sellers showed up in the final hour as the Dow fell 97 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to move out of the sideways channel that is has been stuck in but todays price action probably won't help. Not sure what led to the late swoon but some profit taking or even outright selling is long overdue. The NASDAQ led the way lower but it wasn't a rout. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on the technical indicators as it has been for weeks on end. I'd still like to try the SPY March puts at some point but the question is when. Gold continued its rally as the futures jumped thirty bucks. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates moved up. The XAU was up 4 1/3, while GDX gained almost 1 1/4. Volume was very heavy. Buyers have all of a sudden showed up for gold and I cannot pinpoint a reason why. The gold futures closed at a new all time high above $2100. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up with still some room to go. The short term down trend line for GDX was broken on good volume Friday and we continued up today. GDX closed above its 50 day moving average. Not sure how far and how fast this rally can go but we'll enjoy the ride for now. Needless to say our GDX March calls are showing a good profit for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits with the downside day. Still short term oversold here. We've got the Fed chairman before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday followed by the employment report on Friday. So there will be plenty of excuses for market movement this week. Not sure what to expect but we'll keep our eyes on things as usual. Asia was up and Europe generally down to begin the trading week overseas. We'll keep watch on tonights developments. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-79965004647229744272024-03-01T13:21:00.000-08:002024-03-02T10:15:28.600-08:00The buying continues on the 1st of the month as the Dow gained 91 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to break out above its sideways trading channel. The NASDAQ led the way and closed at a new all time high along with the S&P 500. The S&P remains short term overbought but the negative divergence on the daily RSI has now been negated. It was a signal that didn't work but luckily I didn't try the SPY March puts yet. Not sure exactly where all the liquidity is coming from but we won't argue with price. Waiting on a decent signal for the next SPY trade and it still could be the March puts as we have two weeks to go in the March option cycle. The gold futures took off to the upside by $38 and closed at a new all time high. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added almost a buck. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX has broken the down trend line in effect since the beginning of the year on good volume. That is bullish. The short term indicators still have room to move higher and are not yet overbought. Not sure why gold has all of sudden taken off but we'll take it. My GDX March calls are now showing a good profit. But with two weeks to go in the March option cycle, the management of the trade will determine whether or not it is successful. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX appears to have put in a triple bottom but we'll have to see where it goes from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators on the VIX are getting more overbought. Not at extremes but getting there. We'll have plenty to ponder over this weekend as we go over all the charts. Asia and Europe were higher to close the week as money is moving into stocks around the globe. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-64991198723785173172024-02-29T13:24:00.000-08:002024-02-29T13:24:55.374-08:00Inflation data came in where expected which led to some volatility today. We opened higher, gave it all back and then rallied back again into the close. The Dow finished with a gain of 47 points on end of the month heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to track sideways. It seems like the market still just can't figure out what it wants to do here. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with the negative RSI divergence still in place. Perhaps we'll get a shot at the SPY March puts at some point but when that point is I don't know at the moment. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU rose 2 3/8, while GDX was up 5/8. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up. GDX finished well off of its highs for the session. The problem here is that every bounce we have seen lately for GDX hasn't sustained any buying. That could again be the case here as the down trend line at 27 remains in effect. We'll need to see some more buying if this GDX March call trade is to work out. It is showing a small profit after today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains perched at the 50 day moving average. Still short term oversold but not extremely so. I don't have a good feel for where the VIX is heading next. Some economic data due tomorrow but nothing as important as today. Plenty of Fed speak to close out the week. Europe and Asia finished mixed last night. We'll close out the week tomorrow.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-14436128098004315282024-02-28T13:21:00.000-08:002024-02-28T13:21:10.079-08:00Still treading water here as the Dow dipped 23 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Tomorrow should get things going one way or the other on the inflation data. If that doesn't get things moving I don't know what will. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way down. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and the negative RSI divergence remains in place. I decided to stay on the sidelines with regards to the overall market and not purchase the SPY March puts today. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX March calls was filled today. Since I took this trade I stayed out of the SPY put idea. Not sure that was the correct decision though. I at least waited for the price that I was willing to pay for this GDX call idea. GDX is short term oversold but the indicators could still move lower as they are not at extremes. A little over two weeks remaining in the March option cycle but we will probably know tomorrow whether or not this trade will work. Mentally I'm feeling a bit anxious. Not sure the trade taken on today was worth the risk. Might have done it out of just wanting to get the next trade going. It has technical justification but I'm certainly not confident about it. The VIX was up today and has bounced off of its 50 day moving average. Still short term oversold here but not extremely so. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-53645760346187486772024-02-27T14:15:00.000-08:002024-02-27T14:15:49.869-08:00Back and forth today as the Dow fell 96 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues sideways. The Dow was the laggard today with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posting gains. Waiting on Thursdays inflation report seems to be the story. We will get a GDP revision tomorrow and some talking from Fed officials. The technical condition for the S&P remains the same. Short term overbought with the negative RSI divergence on the daily chart. The question is whether to buy the SPY March puts ahead of Thursdays data. I've made the case here technically but as time moves on I've got less conviction for the trade. Not sure why that is. However if we see some strength tomorrow I'll have to figure out if it's worth the risk or not. The same goes for the GDX March call trade. If the market drops most likely the gold shares will follow. My open order for the GDX calls remains out there. Today the gold futures finished flat along with the US dollar and interest rates. Are you seeing a trend here? Markets are just hanging around waiting for a catalyst one way or the other. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. GDX remains in a negative mode with the down trend line that began at the beginning of the year remaining in force at the 27 level. So tonight I'll have to ask myself. Do I want to try this trade or not? Mentally I'm in a mood of indecision or so it seems. Perhaps I should head to the sidelines but there's no making any money over there. No losing any either. The VIX was lower today and closed on its 50 day moving average. Short term oversold here but not extremely. I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. Decisions will have to be made tomorrow ahead of Thursdays data. Europe and Asia were up last night. We'll watch tonights headlines and get ready for Wednesday.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-36307909376577439432024-02-26T13:20:00.000-08:002024-02-26T13:20:27.035-08:00Another mundane Monday as the Dow lost 62 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues sideways. The S&P 500 was lower and didn't hold up here until Tuesday as I had hoped in order to try the SPY March puts. We'll see how things go in the next couple of days but this trade may not happen for me since the index is already starting to drop. The technical picture hasn't changed for the S&P with the negative RSI divergence on the daily chart. Inflation data out on Thursday should be the main mover of the week unless we get some kind of surprise before then. The NASDAQ had the least loss on the day. Gold dropped $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. The gold shares did come up from the lows on the session. My open order for the GDX March calls is still out there. Another day like today will probably get it filled. This trade seems to be getting riskier as time goes on as the signal is not as clear as it was. I may adjust it lower overnight. If the overall market starts to drop as I think it will, the gold shares will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the day. Not a clear signal here now one way or the other. When in doubt stay out is an old market saying but perhaps it's appropriate for now. Europe was mixed and Asia generally lower with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-32080186279668146802024-02-23T13:18:00.000-08:002024-02-23T13:18:49.658-08:00Just hanging around today to digest yesterdays huge gains as the Dow rose 62 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving sideways. The Dow led the way today and the NASDAQ posted a small loss. New all time highs for the Dow and the S&P 500 again. The S&P remains short term overbought with the negative RSI divergence still in place on the daily chart. If we can remain positive into Tuesday I'll be trying the SPY March puts. Inflation data due out on Thursday. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar ended flat again and interest rates were lower. The XAU gained 1 7/8, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up and the daily candlestick chart looks positive. My open order for the GDX March calls wasn't filled and it looks like I've maybe missed this trade. I'll leave the order out there and see what happens in the beginning of next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators still have room to move down. The VIX still implies higher stock prices in the near term. We'll see. I'll take the weekend to go over the charts for some type of game plan next week. For now I'm still a believer in the negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart. Throw in a short term overbought signal on Tuesday and I'll be trying the puts. But we have to get there first. Europe finished higher and Asia was mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-8014364583502228832024-02-22T13:21:00.000-08:002024-02-22T13:21:49.397-08:00The stock market exploded to the upside today as the Dow climbed 456 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index remains in a sideways pattern. NVDA came out with a better than expected earnings report and guidance after the bell. The result was buying upon buying today along with short covering. The NASDAQ led the way up roughly 3% on the day. The S&P 500 hit a new all time high along with the Dow. The NASDAQ is just about there. To me it is getting a bit out of control but that doesn't mean that we won't move higher. I'm still looking at the negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart but upside follow through tomorrow may take care of that. However when one stock can set off a rally like this it is a cause for concern. The breadth today was nothing to write home about either. You cannot argue with price though. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar ended flat as well and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares did not go along with the overall market today as the XAU shed 2 1/4 and GDX lost 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. Newmont set a new 52 week low as there is no love for gold stocks at the moment. My open order for the GDX March calls wasn't filled and I adjusted it lower. I'm not sure if this is still the right idea for now. I'm considering going out to the April option cycle but we'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits the rally. The short term indicators have rolled over with room to go. This implies yet even higher stock prices going forward. Asia and Europe were higher as it appears there's a worldwide run into equities. Not sure where all the money is coming from but the bulls are clearly in charge. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-40548525429148912512024-02-21T13:18:00.000-08:002024-02-21T13:18:43.761-08:00Looking for direction as the Dow gained 48 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving sideways. We bounced around trending lower for much of the session before a last half hour rally sent indices into positive terrritory with the exception of the NASDAQ. The Fed beige book was a non event. Waiting on NVDA earnings after the bell to set the tone for tomorrow. The S&P 500 is now mid-range its Bollinger band channel with the short term indicators drifting lower. There is no clear trading signal one way or the other here so we'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. I did place an order for the GDX March calls but it will take some selling there to get filled. I'm leaving it open overnight. Newmont earnings on tap for tomorrow. The gold shares seem to be holding in here so this trade may have been missed as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it has put in a small top and that the VIX will be heading lower near term. That would be a plus for higher stock prices. I still like the idea of the SPY March puts at some point during the monthly option cycle but need to see a decent signal first. We'll have to stay patient for now. Europe and Asia were mixed again. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-90288972133600125892024-02-20T13:24:00.000-08:002024-02-20T13:24:50.340-08:00Sellers took over after the long weekend as the Dow fell 64 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index remains in a sideways channel. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. We did recover from the lows of the session though. The S&P 500 is still in overbought territory but not at extremes. The short term indicators have rolled over. The up trend line from last November is in jeopardy. I still like the idea of the SPY March puts but will not chase things here. If the S&P somehow moves up from here and the indicators stay below their previous highs the puts are worth a shot. But that's asking a lot and I would not be surprised if we just head down from here. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates nudged down. The XAU finished basically unchanged, while GDX added 1/8. Volume was light. I do like the GDX March calls on a pullback this week if we see one. However with gold up and the gold shares not following it isn't the most positive environment at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and closed above its 200 day moving average and upper Bollinger band. Not sure what to expect here next but the short term indicators have room to go higher. It is a short trading week without a lot of economic data on tap. The Fed beige book is out tomorrow with NVDA earnings due after the bell. I suppose it is best to sit tight for now. Europe and Asia finished mixed in last nigths trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-64087762604642208212024-02-16T14:06:00.000-08:002024-02-19T19:23:44.658-08:00The inflation data came in more than expected again and after an intitial drop in the first half hour the market came back to positive territory until there were two hours to go. Sellers then took over and the Dow fell 145 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index remains trending up but within a sideways range. The NASDAQ led the way lower. I thought that perhaps we would see some kind of blow off top for stocks here but that isn't the case. If it was we'd already be going straight up. Todays price action puts the market in a tenuous position in my view. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart for the S&P 500 is still intact. However the long term up trend line is still working as support. But to me the rate of ascent is too steep and I'm looking for a pull back to the 4800 level. I could be wrong and often am. I'm considering the SPY March puts. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on about average volume. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX looks bullish as it has bounced off of its lower Bollinger band this week. It is also oversold on a medium term basis. There is a down trend line still in effect there though and a negative week next week would negate this weeks potential positive candlestick. The trading is never easy. If the market drops next week as I believe that it will the gold shares will probably go with it. Newmont earnings are due on the 22nd as well. I am looking at the March GDX calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up a bit today. Not seeing any clear signal one way or the other on the daily indicators here. There will be plenty to ponder over the long weekend coming up. Rolling into a new option cycle as well. I'll be going over the charts as usual to try and come up with some kind of game plan for the comming trading week. I'll try and not dwell on the recent losing GDX trade and missing out on the SPY puts this week. Europe and Asia finished higher to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-13705180742882690122024-02-15T13:21:00.000-08:002024-02-15T13:21:06.438-08:00Continuing higher as the Dow was up 348 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to trending higher but remains in a sideways panel. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Retail sales came in lighter than expected. The S&P 500 was up and remains short term overbought but not extremely so. My guess here is that the S&P either morphs into a blow off top or we get another negative RSI divergence on the daily chart and we roll over. The up trend line from last November remains intact so the path of least resistance is higher. The big sell off on Tuesday has only been met with more buying. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but we won't fight price. Remaining on the sidelines for now as we'll let expiration Friday pass. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good again to the upside. The bounce signal we were looking for from one of our indicators doesn't look like it will show up as the gold shares are already starting to move up. The short term indicators for GDX have started to move higher. Perhaps if GDX heads back down to the 26 level we'll try the March calls there. There is a down trend line on the GDX daily chart that comes in at around 27.75. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with some of the short term indicators now at mid-range. Not sure what to expect next here. We have seen the stock market come back in the past couple of days. Not sure if it is the next move to a new all time high or just something option expiration related. We'll know in the next few days. Asia and Europe were both up overnight. Inflation data out on expiration Friday so we'll close out the trading week on that. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-77380759131845246932024-02-14T13:24:00.000-08:002024-02-14T13:24:08.845-08:00Higher today as we did not see any downside follow through to yesterdays debacle. The Dow gained 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. After todays price action we have to consider that yesterday was simply a one day wonder but we'll see how the rest of the week plays out. The long term up trend line in the S&P 500 from last November does remain intact. The short term indicators there have now turned back up as they have for most of the duration of the rally. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart of the S&P may have played itself out in one day. We'll know more as the rest of the week goes on. Plenty of economic data out tomorrow with retail sales being the main event. On the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY trading. Gold fell $3 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on above average volume. We are waiting to see if one of our indicators gives a buy signal for GDX. If it does we'll try a bounce trade there. If not we'll look elsewhere. GDX remains short term oversold on the daily indicators and has been for quite some time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term technical indicators there have turned lower or are in the process of doing so. The VIX is implying that the selling is over but again we'll have to see how the rest of the week shapes up. A long weekend ahead in the US as well. More inflation data out on Friday along with option expiration. So it should be a busy final two days of this week. Asia was mixed and Europe up in last nights trade. We'll see how the markets react to the data tomorrow.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-72969585780844646012024-02-13T13:25:00.000-08:002024-02-13T13:25:18.647-08:00Inflation data came in higher than expected and the markets got clobbered as the Dow fell 524 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 12 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to trending lower but it is in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way down. A last half hour rally brought the market back or it would have been worse. I did place another order overnight for the SPY February puts but it wasn't filled. I was thinking yesterday that perhaps this trade was missed and it was. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart for the S&P 500 finally came to fruition. The S&P did manage to make it back to finish on the up trend line that began last November at the 4950 level. I don't think this level will hold though but we'll see. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over with room to go. The next area of support comes in at around 4800 or so. If we can somehow hang around here for a while, I'll try the SPY March puts. But markets go where thay want. Gold dropped $27 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 6 7/8, while GDX fell 1 3/8. Volume was heavy in a rush to the exits. Yesterday I thought that the gold shares were about to rally and they simply continue to fall. There is an indicator that we look at on a longer term basis that is pretty reliable to spot a point when the gold shares will at least bounce. It hasn't gotten all the way there yet but if and when it does I'll be trying the GDX March calls for a short term trade. I also thought yesterday that all the bad news was out there for Barrick Gold but it sold off on its earnings report today. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite missing the SPY put trade. At least my idea there was correct unlike the recent GDX loss that was a disastor from the start. One thing for sure in the game is that you've always got to keep moving forward despite the results. The VIX had a huge spike higher and closed above its 200 day moving average. It would have been even higher had the market not made a late comeback out of nowhere. The short term indicators have moved up but are not completely overbought yet. Not sure what to expect here next but you can certainly make a case for higher VIX readings and lower stock prices. Three days left in the February option cycle ahead of a holiday weekend. I doubt that I'll be taking on any short term trades from here but who knows? What was open in Asia was generally higher while Europe was lower. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6525300.post-91779532398956487742024-02-12T13:19:00.000-08:002024-02-12T13:19:34.985-08:00A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 125 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. It was a one day reversal to the downside for the S&P 500. I did place an order for the SPY Feruary puts overnight but it wasn't filled. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but today may have been the chance to try the puts. If we are higher tomorrow I may try this idea again but it could be too late. Inflation data out in the morning and that should be a market mover. I'm looking at the hourly chart on the S&P and if we get a high above todays high with a lower RSI reading I'll give the puts a try. But this would be strickly short term in nature as it's option expiration week. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was below average. Gold shares up with gold down is a plus for the bulls as we haven't seen that for a while. Perhaps it is the beginning of a rally in GDX that I was looking for as it remains short term oversold. Barrick Gold reports earnings tomorrow and we've seen about all of the bad news from that stock lately. Mentally I'm feeling a bit concerned that I might have missed the SPY put trade. The VIX was up today. It rose a point even though we hardly had a market drop overall. The short term indicators have turned up. It could represent more near term weakness for stocks but we'll have to wait and see. Europe finished higher and most of Asia was closed for holiday. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02733099966892064853noreply@blogger.com0