Monday, August 31, 2009
We ended the month on a down note as the Dow lost 48 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were down about twice as much during the day. The market needed to have some decline here and I would expect some more near term but I also expect us to head back higher towards the end of the week. It's too late for the OEX puts right now but there still may be a time to get them during the September cycle. Who knows, I might try them again. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU dropped 3 1/2. ABX and GG were both off around 3/4, while NEM fell 1 1/4. The dollar didn't do much today but oil dropped around $3. I put in an open order for some ABX September calls. I'm leaving it out there for now. This may not be the greatest trade in the world but I am going to take a shot here. I'll adjust things as the market dictates. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept enough for today. Beginning of the month tomorrow and perhaps this will be a slow week as well. Labor Day is a week from today. There's a chance that we just drift sideways this week. There will also be one less trading day for this option cycle. Things to ponder.
Friday, August 28, 2009
The Dow lost 36 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market tried to sell off but came back yet again. I still like the OEX puts for the beginning of next week but did cancel my open order for the weekend. So we'll see. Overbought here even with todays action. Gold was up over $10 today and the XAU rose over 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all up 3/4 or so on average volume for lately. Gold rose despite the dollar going higher. I do like the gold shares on a pullback still. This may be the play for the September option cycle. I could already be too late. There isn't any reason for gold to be moving higher here unless it is some end of the month situation that I'm not aware of. Anything is possible. Again, I'll have to check things out over the weekend and go from there. Mentally I'm feeling tired. We got through this week but there wasn't any decent set-up to take advantage of. Summer is winding down and next week should be busier. I really would find it hard to believe if we don't have some type of drop early in the week. But this market has proven me wrong time and again this year. Employment data on Friday. I'll get busy over the weekend and go from there.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Once again the market tried to sell off and it came back again. The Dow gained 37 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. I'm leaving in the open order for OEX puts but the market seems like it wants to go higher. So why leave in the order? There is a sell signal being generated by the RSI. We have higher prices and a lower McClellan oscillator. When the technicals give a signal, I'm going to take a chance. I also don't believe the summation index can go much higher. We'll see. Gold was up a few bucks today and the XAU gained 2 3/4. ABX up 1/3, GG up 7/8 and NEM up 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar was weaker today. It is hard to make much of what is going on here because the volume is so light. If we do get the expected pullback in the market, I will be getting long the gold shares. If all goes according to plan that will happen at the beginning of next week. But the best laid plans rarely come through. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So if we get some rally tomorrow perhaps the open OEX put order will get filled and the trade will be on it's way. If we drop tomorrow, then I'll wait for Monday and look to get long the gold shares. That's the game plan as of today.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Hanging around here as the Dow gained 4 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. I get the feeling we are preparing for one more thrust to the upside. After that, who knows? I'm leaving in my order for the OEX puts. I think we'll see some downside on Friday or Monday. However after that, if it occurs, I'm going to get long the gold shares. That's the scenario for now. It has been a pretty slow week here so far. Gold was little changed today and the XAU fell almost 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses again on light volume. The dollar was higher today but I really think these are thin markets this week. I'll try and be patient. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So we are here moving sideways on light volume and waiting to see where the next catalyst comes from. Again, I think the upside is limited here with one more pop perhaps. But I could be wrong. However, I am willing to try the OEX puts here and we'll see what transpires from here.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Overbought and staying there again as the Dow gained 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Once again we were higher early and then came back. It's possible that we'll get one more up thrust and then head down from there. Or we could just head lower from here. But I'm pretty sure that the upside will be limited from here near term. The negative divergence on the RSI for the OEX is taking shape. My open order for the OEX puts wasn't filled and I'll probably be leaving another one for tomorrow. Gold gained a couple bucks and the XAU was up 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar didn't do much but oil was noticeably weaker. The scenario here remains the same, I'll get long the gold shares on weakness. That should occur if the market takes a rest here soon. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm tired. Got up early today for jury duty and it was a tortuous day to say the least. But it's over now and the markets won't wait and don't care. The OEX puts look to be my next trade. The timing is everything. It is almost at the point where patience isn't going to help. But not yet. We'll see how tomorrow unfolds.
Monday, August 24, 2009
The Dow managed a 3 point gain today but we were much higher earlier. Advance/declines were about even and the volume looks pretty good for a summer Monday. We are now getting the negative RSI divergence that I've been looking for. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher but I am looking for a decline. Might have to wait until the end of the week but that's fine. I have an open order in for some OEX puts. The summation index is about as high as it goes in my opinion. I could be wrong. We'll see what happens. Gold took a hit today, down $11. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses. NEM led the way down. Volume was light. I'm still inclined to get long the gold shares when the proper signal hits. It's a matter of when. If the market drops a bit here as I suspect, it might be a buy for the gold shares. The shares today held up much better than the metal itself and that is a positive. But anything can happen. I'm keeping an eye on it. Mentally I feel fine, slept OK. At this point the scenario is that if we trade higher until the end of the week I'll be looking to get the OEX puts. If we trade lower all week I'll be looking to get long the gold shares. A sideways continuation will have me still considering the OEX puts. It has been a busy summer for the markets and no summer doldrums this year. Hard to say what that means going forward. More volatility perhaps. On to Tuesday.
Friday, August 21, 2009
The Bollinger bands did converge and we got a dramatic move. I thought it would be to the downside but higher we go. The Dow gained 156 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index should move back to the upside with todays action. Another up day and we will be short term overbought. I don't think the summation index is about to take off to the upside here and there will be some negative divergences after today. I'm going to think long and hard about getting some OEX puts at the beginning of next week. We'll see. Gold had a good day as well, up $13. The XAU only rose 3 points though. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside again on light volume. The dollar was weaker today. I canceled my open order for the ABX September calls. I'll have to give gold some thought over the weekend as well. It looks like it is poised to go higher but if we get a drop in the markets, the gold shares will follow. However, it is possible that we will just continue higher and the gold shares along with it too. I don't think that is the scenario that will unfold here but it could. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or long enough. Last week of August coming up. Just how high will we go here? There's a lot to look at over the weekend. You can't argue with price though. I think that I'll be putting on a trade next week. Right now though I'm going to take a break and relax. Summer is almost coming to a close.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Settling out on the Dow as it looks to be a gain of around 70 points on average volume. Advance/declines are over 2 to 1 positive. We've had a positive expiration week bias after Mondays drop. There was no follow through to the downside even when the overseas markets faltered. I'm still favoring the OEX puts when we get overbought, which could happen next week. We'll get through Friday and take it from there. Gold lost $3 but the XAU rose 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains again on light volume. The gold shares are following the overall market at the moment. I still have an order in for the ABX September calls but may cancel it before the weekend. If the market does drop the gold shares will go with it. However, nothing is set in stone when it comes to the markets. There's a daily uptrend line in the gold shares that has held for now. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. It's getting near the end of August and things could slow down next week. But that's a guess. The new option cycle will begin and things will be pricey on the premiums. I'll keep an eye on things and we'll go from there.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Another day to the upside as the Dow gained 61 points. Advance/declines were positive. Volume was light and a re-check of yesterdays volume shows that it was light as well. I never really trust light volume rallies. That could be a problem here. Perhaps we will get a higher high with a lower RSI after all. No OEX trades for now but I will be looking to the September puts at this point. Gold gained $5 today and the XAU rose 1 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM again had fractional gains on light volume. Hard to say where gold is headed from here. We are oversold but working it off slowly. If the overall market does drop, the gold shares will probably go with it. That said, I am leaving in an open order to purchase some ABX September calls. Oil was strong again today with the dollar weaker and gold didn't do as much. Perhaps I'll wait for the gold/XAU signal. We'll have to see how things play out. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I have noticed that the Bollinger bands are converging on the OEX. This usually portends a dramatic move one way or the other. My thinking is that it will be to the downside but it's anybodies guess. 2 days left this week and no August option cycle trades. Patience cannot be underrated.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Support has held for now as the Dow gained 82 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We were up from the start and then remained higher, moving sideways for the rest of the day. 3 days left in the August option cycle and I don't think I'll be making a trade. Summation index now pointing down, which does imply lower prices. But you never know. Looking more oversold here than I thought, so I don't expect a break of the 980 level on the S&P 500 this week. I could be wrong. Gold was up around $3 today and the XAU gained 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I would still like to get long the gold shares as we are oversold. I'll be looking at the ABX September and October calls. That's the plan for now. Dollar a bit weaker today. Oil had a good day and gold did not really follow. I'm going to try and remain patient here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm going to try my best not to do anything stupid for the rest of the week. It could be that we get a slowdown in the markets here as it is the end of the summer. That hasn't been the case as of yet this year. But there is that possibility. On to tomorrow.
Monday, August 17, 2009
A downer Monday as the Dow followed the global markets lower and lost 186 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index has rolled over and the path of least resistance is downward. We are right at support on the S&P 500 at the 980 level. The next level would be in the 950 area if we don't hold up here. My guess is that we will get to 950 sooner or later. I think that it's too late for the August OEX puts. Gold took a hit as well, off $12. The XAU fell 6 3/4. ABX and GG were both off around a buck, while NEM fell over 1 1/2. Volume was light. We are oversold here. I'm thinking of trying the ABX or GG calls for a bounce here this week. It's risky with only 4 days to go but it could be worth the effort. I'll look at things tonight and then decide. The dollar gained ground today as well. So we'll see. I don't have the Gold/XAU signal yet but it may not be far off. When that occurs it will be time to get some longer term gold share calls. I'm keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm doing OK. Did not feel well last night but all is better today. Once again decisions have to be made and I've got to be up for the challenge. It is expiration week, so anything can happen. Of course staying on the sidelines is always an option. I'll run through things tonight and go from there.
Friday, August 14, 2009
The market never waits as we were down 76 points today. A late comeback cut the loss in half. Volume was light and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I may still get the OEX puts next week but it's a tough call now that we've dropped. There's also the possibility that we get an option expiration week run up in the averages. Todays action implies higher prices near term. I'll ponder things over the weekend. Gold was down $7 and the XAU lost 3 points. ABX lost 1/3, while GG and NEM were off over 3/4. Volume was light. Gold has been moving sideways and has held up rather good so far here. But we haven't had a real market decline either. The dollar was a bit higher today. I'd like to get long some ABX calls at some point. The question is when? The chart looks promising on a weekly basis for a breakout. And if and when it starts to move, I think it will be substantial. It's a waiting game for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. One week left on the August option cycle. It's risky for me here. The short term trades with not much time left usually burn me. However there will be opportunity. It's a matter of if I'm up to the challenge. More to think about over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Continuing higher as the Dow gained 36 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. I'm still looking at the OEX puts for the beginning of next week. If the market moves in the scenario that I expect, I'll give it a shot. Tomorrow should be an up day if all goes well. We then may get a divergence on the RSI. That's the idea at the moment. Gold was up 4 bucks and the gold shares followed with the XAU gaining 4 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all up by 2/3 on light volume. At one point I placed an order for some ABX calls but canceled it later. The technical indicators for the gold shares have started to move higher. It is a trade that could perhaps work. However my thinking is that with 6 days left and my scenario for a falling market coming up, this may not be the best trade at the moment. The dollar was weaker today however and the gold shares did outperform gold itself. I didn't want to take the risk here, I'll wait for the OEX. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough for a change. So we'll see what the inflation data does to the markets and go from there. It could be that I sit out the August option cycle as well.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Back to the upside as the Dow gained 120 points on Fed day. Volume was average, while the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We were up even higher but sold off at the end. The Fed offered no surprises and now that is out of the way. More data to come including inflation numbers on Friday. I still feel the upside is limited here and sideways could be the rule until September. I will purchase some OEX puts if we make a higher high with a lower RSI. Possibly in the beginning of next week but we will have to see what the market does from here. Gold was up $5 on the futures and sold off a touch after the Fed. The XAU was up a point. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves on light volume. There is no interest in the gold shares at the moment. My feeling is that could be the case for the rest of the month. I could be wrong. We are getting oversold on the gold shares so I'll keep an eye on them. Mentally I'm doing OK. A bit tired as I did not sleep well. I'm trying to be patient here. If we get a set up for the OEX puts, I'll give it a try. Otherwise it may be prudent to just step aside and let the August option cycle play itself out. Time will tell.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
The Dow continued lower today, down 96 points on average volume. Advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 negative. This action should start to turn the summation index lower. It doesn't mean we'll get a full scale decline just yet but I think it does mean that the upside is limited from here at this time. If we get a rally from here, I'll try the OEX puts before expiration. All eyes and ears are on the Fed tomorrow. Gold was little changed today while the XAU lost 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all down on light volume today, with GG leading the way. We are oversold here on the gold shares and I might buy some calls tomorrow before the Fed announcement. It would have to be a short term trade because if the market falls as I expect, the gold shares will probably fall with it. Mentally I'm doing OK. I have to cut things short today due to an appointment. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I'll check the charts tonight and determine if a play is warranted.
Monday, August 10, 2009
The Dow lost 32 points on this summer Monday. Advance/declines were average and the so was the volume. We were lower but came back some in the last hour. Basically waiting on the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Summation index still moving higher. I'm thinking of getting some OEX puts this week. I don't believe the summation index can get much higher here but I could be wrong and often am. If we make a higher high on the OEX and the RSI doesn't confirm it, I'll try the puts. So we'll see. Gold had a bad day for the bullish side and was down $12. The XAU lost 3 points. ABX down 1/2, GG lost a buck and NEM fell 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar was up again today and it looks like we could have a legitimate short term bottom in the dollar. Time will tell. If that's the case there is no reason to rush into the gold shares here. However when we get oversold for ABX, I'm going to try the calls. There is an uptrend line about 2 points away from where we are now. If the indicators are oversold and we reach that uptrend line, then the trade will be to purchase the September calls. That's the idea at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. 9 days left before the August expiration. The market still feels as if it wants to go higher. Sell offs do not have any legs of late. Why even try the OEX puts then? Good question. Perhaps it's just another in the many bad ideas I've had so far this year. We'll see.
Friday, August 07, 2009
Back in rally mode for Friday as the Dow gained 113 points on good volume. Advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The employment report wasn't as bad as expected. We were even higher than that earlier in the day. Summation index continues higher but it is about as high as it can go in my opinion. The market will go where it wants. The next event is the Fed announcement on Wednesday. So we'll see. I'm thinking about some OEX puts next week. Gold lost another $3 on the futures and the XAU fell 3 3/4. Considering the strong move in the dollar, gold held up pretty well. ABX, GG and NEM were all off around a buck on light volume. I suppose I'll have to wait for a signal there. I need to check the charts over the weekend. Perhaps the September option cycle will work there for the calls but that's a guess. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. So here we are in the beginning of August with an incredible up move for the stock market still going strong. Will there be no summer doldrums? Apparently not. 2 weeks left on this option cycle. I'll ponder things over the weekend and go from there. Perhaps sitting out the August cycle will be the correct path. We'll see. A summer weekend is here. Time to relax.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
A slight drop today as the Dow lost 25 points. We were lower than that on the day after opening on a positive note. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was pretty good again. That makes 2 days of good volume on the decline. Interesting. The summation index continues higher but as I said yesterday, it's about as high as it goes. The employment report will key tomorrows action and next week we have the Fed. No OEX trades for me at the moment. Gold didn't do much today, down a bit. The XAU was off a touch. ABX, GG and NEM again had fractional moves one way or the other. Volume was light. The dollar gained ground today and the gold shares held up pretty good. That could be bullish. It all depends on how gold reacts to tomorrows developments. I might be convinced to get long the gold shares before the August expiration. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'd really like to put on some type of trade here but I'm not really seeing any decent set-ups. It's a tough game. It's hard to stay out sometimes but it has to be done. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
A slight pullback as the Dow dropped 39 points. Advance/declines were negative. Volume looks like it picked up. All eyes waiting for Fridays employment report. The summation index is at its highest point that I can remember. It is due to start to drop. I do not expect a ton of upside from here. Considering how overbought we are and how long that condition has lasted, I have to be careful here about the bullish cause. We may just move sideways and not have a decent drop. We'll see but caution for the upside is my mantra here. It may keep me from playing the gold shares right now. Gold lost $3 today and the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares sold off early but came all the way back. The dollar continues weaker. It's possible that the dollar could take a hit after the employment report. That's a guess. I'm on the sidelines here for now. Could change tomorrow for all I know but probably not. Mentally I'm OK. Looking for a trade here but don't want to do anything stupid. I'll check things again tonight and go from there. So we'll see.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Continuing higher, it's like a broken record. The Dow gained 33 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Tried to sell off but the market only knows one way at the moment and it's up. Oversold, staying there and you start to get the feeling that the market will never go down again. But we know better than that. Can't fight the tape here but the summation index is getting far too extended. So we'll see what happens. Gold continues higher, up another $10 today. The XAU was flat though. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves either side of unchanged. Volume was light. The dollar stabilized today. I still might try the gold shares if we get some pullback. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. How much longer can the summer rally go on? That is the question. There doesn't seem to be anything to stop it at the moment. Perhaps the employment report on Friday but who knows? I'll continue to keep an eye on how things develop.
Monday, August 03, 2009
Beginning of the month money flows helped the Dow to a gain of 115 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. Summation index continues higher but we are getting to levels that would suggest at least a sideways movement in the summation index. That doesn't mean the market will drop, it could continue higher with a sideways summation index. Employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for now. Gold was up $3 but the XAU gained almost 5. ABX up over a buck, while GG gained 3/4 and NEM rose 1/2. The dollar got clobbered again today but gold itself didn't rise proportionately. I still like the gold shares and am thinking of getting the August calls even though we've moved off the recent lows. I did place an overnight order that wasn't filled. The weekly dollar chart looks like it is in the final wave down of a 5 wave move. There is probably some more room to go on the downside for the dollar here. August is also historically in the past 30 years one of the better months for gold. The weekly stochastic has moved back to the upside for the gold shares as well. So we'll see. Perhaps I'll go out to September. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. The market continues in rally mode, with only the slightest of pullbacks. Hard to fight that. It hasn't been a slow summer as I had anticipated. I'll be looking to put on some type of trade this week as things stand right now. So we'll see. I'll check the charts again tonight.