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Monday, August 24, 2009

The Dow managed a 3 point gain today but we were much higher earlier. Advance/declines were about even and the volume looks pretty good for a summer Monday. We are now getting the negative RSI divergence that I've been looking for. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher but I am looking for a decline. Might have to wait until the end of the week but that's fine. I have an open order in for some OEX puts. The summation index is about as high as it goes in my opinion. I could be wrong. We'll see what happens. Gold took a hit today, down $11. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses. NEM led the way down. Volume was light. I'm still inclined to get long the gold shares when the proper signal hits. It's a matter of when. If the market drops a bit here as I suspect, it might be a buy for the gold shares. The shares today held up much better than the metal itself and that is a positive. But anything can happen. I'm keeping an eye on it. Mentally I feel fine, slept OK. At this point the scenario is that if we trade higher until the end of the week I'll be looking to get the OEX puts. If we trade lower all week I'll be looking to get long the gold shares. A sideways continuation will have me still considering the OEX puts. It has been a busy summer for the markets and no summer doldrums this year. Hard to say what that means going forward. More volatility perhaps. On to Tuesday.

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