Friday, July 31, 2009
We closed out the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 17 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We should trend higher here. Summation index still to the upside. Plenty of time in the August option cycle but no trades for now. Gold had a good day as the dollar got clobbered. The precious metal gained $18 and the XAU rose 5 1/2. ABX was up a buck or so while GG and NEM gained 1 1/2. Volume was better than it has been. Will I get long the gold shares then? Perhaps. I'll have to look at things over the weekend. There's something about the volume that is lacking though. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. However my focus seems to be lacking. Whether it's the fact that we are in the middle of summer or that my trading thus far this year has sucked, I don't know. The game isn't easy. I'm doing the work as usual but my conviction on trades isn't there at the moment. I'll need to get it together before I attempt the next trade. But for now it's a summer weekend and time for a break.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
The rally lives on as the Dow gained 83 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The market could not sell off the previous 2 sessions and higher prices were in order. We cut todays gain in half but it was still pretty good. GDP numbers tomorrow and the end of the month. Prices should be supported by money flows going into the middle of next week. You can't fight it. Gold was up $7 and the XAU gained 4. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher, with ABX leading the way up a buck. The earnings didn't mean much really as the gold shares followed the overall market and the weakness in the dollar. Oil rallied as well. I'm going to wait on the gold shares though, until we are oversold. Not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. No clear signal for the OEX here but most technicals are overbought and have been for a while now. Summation index still moving to the upside. I'm on the sidelines for the near future. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Again, the market just refuses to sell off here. The Dow lost 26 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were off about 90 at one point. Buyers continue to surface. Summation index still heading higher. End of the month on Friday. I would expect us to move higher now in the near term. Gold lost around another $10 today as the dollar gained strength. The XAU fell 4 points. ABX and GG were both off more than 1/2, while NEM dropped a buck. Volume was nothing special. Earnings tomorrow and I thought about trading some ABX calls but didn't. The technicals have turned bearish for now on the gold shares. I'll be looking at them again when they are oversold. It's tempting to try and play the earnings for ABX and GG but it isn't really the prudent thing to do. It is much more likely to be successful by waiting for the proper technical set up. Oil got hit hard today as well and it looks like the commodity trade is done for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So it looks like we have a stock market that is working off its overbought position on its way to heading higher. That's my guess at the moment.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Tried to sell off today but the market is resilient. The Dow lost 11 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were off 100 at one point. The trend remains to the upside for now. Approaching the end of the month. No trades in the OEX for now. Gold took a hit today, off $15. The XAU dropped 6 points. ABX down 1 1/2, GG lost 2 1/4 and NEM fell 1 1/4. Volume picked up a bit to the downside. Not sure what to make of it but the dollar had a reversal to the upside. Oil was weaker as well. Still have the earnings to contend with for ABX and GG on Thursday. I'm on the sidelines. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Still a bit gun shy here with all the bad trades of the year still simmering in my mind. The mental game is always tough. Somehow have to move on and keep going. I'm trying my best. Confidence is a key as I've said before. So we'll see what happens.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Not much happening today as the Dow gained 15 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Today was classic summertime lack of activity. We're overbought, staying there and are really due for some type of pullback. I'd like to make a trade but don't see anything worth doing at the moment. Gold was pretty much flat and the XAU lost 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume. Earnings out on Thursday. I could try a play before then but I'm not sure. The dollar lost some ground today but it didn't do anything for gold. No gold trades for now but that could change. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So here we are at the end of July following a huge rally. Where do we go from here? Summation index still heading higher. The trend is up. As overbought as I can remember. I'm on the sidelines until further notice.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Can nothing stop this market? The Dow picked up another 24 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The Dow has been up 9 of the last 10 days. You can't fight that. Summation index heading up. Very overbought and staying there. There are still 4 weeks to go on the August options. I gave the puts a try and failed. I suppose it's the sidelines for a while now. But we'll see. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I haven't liked the volume all the way up on this rise for the gold shares. Earnings next week for ABX and GG. I may try the puts after the earnings announcement. After earnings, what is left to move these stocks higher? I'll think about it over the weekend. The dollar was lower today but it didn't do much for gold. Mentally I'm a bit tired, have not been sleeping well lately. There haven't been any summer doldrums this year so far. I was wrong on that call. It looks like that we have broken through resistance with volume this week. That fact cannot be ignored. The market will be looking to go higher. I'm going to have to look things over this weekend and go from there. I have been in quite a slump though. Perhaps I'll have to take the rest of the summer off. Probably not though. It's a summertime weekend and time for a rest.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
We broke out to the upside today as the Dow gained 188 points on heavier volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. It's hard for me to believe how overbought we are. And staying there. It's the exact opposite of when we tanked last year by staying oversold beyond comprehension. So it goes. I dumped the OEX puts for a 50% loss. Now tomorrow we will probably get the down move I have been waiting for. MSFT just missed on its earnings and could set the tone for tomorrow. Gold was up a buck and the XAU gained about a buck. ABX and GG had fractional gains on good volume for lately. NEM lost 1/4 on bad earnings. Volume was nothing special. The dollar was flat today. Overbought on the gold shares and I'm on the sidelines. Mentally I'm doing OK. The OEX trade I just did was really stupid. My trading thus far this year is ridiculous. I've got to somehow right the ship, turn things around and get my act together. When I didn't take the buy signal last week, we soared. When I took the sell signal this week, we just continued higher. It's the toughest game in the world sometimes. I'm going to have to work harder and keep at it though.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
A slight breather today as the Dow lost 34 points on what passes for average volume these days. Advance/declines were positive. It was a mixed market for sure. My OEX puts are still losers and I am looking to dump them before the end of the week. Still overbought here. Gold was up $6 and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses. Earnings are out next week. Perhaps I'll get some calls before then. It's been a light volume rally in the gold shares and I don't really trust it. But we'll see what happens. Mentally I had to leave halfway through todays session which doesn't usually happen. This was another day off that I took, a partial day. But the market doesn't care. I still believe that we are up against resistance and that there has to be a decent down day now. We'll see.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
The rally will never end at this rate as the Dow gained another 68 points today. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. We sold off during the day and came all the back and then some. The OEX puts I bought yesterday are in the red. We are so overbought now that I can't imagine going that much higher here without some type of pullback but the market will do whatever it takes to make the majority wrong. Am I in the majority? Maybe. Gold was off a touch and the XAU fell about a point. ABX, GG and NEM were little changed on average volume. I guess I'll call it average for now because it has been light all the way on this up move and that could be the new average. I don't know. The gold shares tried to sell off today as well and came back too. Mentally I'm doing OK, finally got a good nights sleep. It looks like I'm in another losing trade here. Now really, what was I thinking? An extra week in the August option cycle and I'm buying them right in the beginning. The signal was there and it isn't working yet. We are way overbought and at long term resistance. I cannot believe that we are not about to get some type of drop here. So we'll see what happens.
Monday, July 20, 2009
The rally continues as the Dow gained 104 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We are short term overbought and will be medium term also after tomorrow. I bought some OEX puts near the close today. I'm expecting a pull back here and it could be pretty good but it's a one to two day trade with potential of 20% to 30%. When I got a signal last week on the upside I didn't do anything. Now there is an opposite signal and I'm going for it. I hopefully have the discipline to get out. We'll see. Gold had another good day as the dollar weakened and was up $11. ABX, GG and NEM were all a buck higher on light volume. The gold shares are looking good, no doubt about that. The only fly in the ointment has been the volume but it is summer. You cannot deny the price action though and it has been substantial. I still regret missing the move but if we get a pullback, who knows? Mentally I am extremely tired, have not been sleeping well and very busy outside of the markets. It is summer and I really need to get back into the swing of things. The doldrums I had been anticipating are not happening. I hope todays trade wasn't some kind of dumb idea just because I've been hanging around with a hedge fund manager all weekend. Not to mention I'm overly tired. So we'll see what happens.
Friday, July 17, 2009
A relatively quiet expiration as the Dow gained 31 points. Volume was average for lately and the advance/declines were negative. It was a very good week but we are now overbought and I would expect weakness at the beginning of next week. We'll have to see what happens after that. Longer term resistance is approaching. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU gained 2. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by 1/4-3/4. The volume was very light though. I expect we'll pull back here as well next week. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. Short post today as I have appointments this afternoon. Summertime. I would like to add that the action next week will tell if this was just an expiration week wonder or something more significant. Stay tuned.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
The rally continues as the Dow gained 95 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Summation index heading higher. It really has been an incredible move to the upside this week. The reported earnings are better than expected, which happens when the expectations are low. We are overbought here so I would expect some type of pullback soon. Where we go after that is anybodies guess. We are at 440 on the OEX and resistance is at 450. So we'll see. Gold was down $4 but the XAU followed the overall market higher, up over a buck. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares have moved back to outperforming the metal itself and that's usually bullish. The dollar was weaker today. Perhaps I'll look at the gold share calls again on any weakness. However there is an extra week in the August option cycle which will keep the premiums high. Mentally I'm tired and I did sleep pretty good. I'm not in a good spot mentally really. No confidence and just missed an excellent opportunity this past week. I can't dwell on it and I'll try not to but it's tough. You've just gotta keep moving along in the game. That's what makes it tough but as usual the battle is always with oneself. On to expiration Friday.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
The rally continues and it appears to be for real as the Dow gained 256 points. Advance/declines look to be about 8 to 1 and the volume was better than it has been. No sellers, only buyers. The summation index is back to the upside. Quite an expiration week so far. We closed near the highs again. Now this is a summer rally but we've come pretty far, pretty fast. Overbought on the short term now but it may not mean anything. We'll see. Gold had a real good day as well, up $16 as the dollar got weaker. The XAU rose 6 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over a buck with GG leading the way. Volume picked up a bit from lately as well. The weekly USD chart could be beginning the final leg down of a five wave pattern. If so, gold should have a decent multi-week rally here. So the gold shares could be a buy for me on weakness. Or it might be too late. Time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling OK considering I've missed this move. Slept pretty good. You've always got to keep moving along in the game. Frustration is part of it and like I said yesterday confidence is very important. Being able to take advantage of opportunities is key. I haven't been able to do that thus far this year. I'll need to work harder and pay better attention. Getting some confidence back wouldn't hurt either.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
We started out a bit lower and closed higher again. The Dow was up 27 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We also closed at the high of the day. Todays action should turn the summation index back to the upside. Perhaps the worst is over in the stock market for now. We'll see. Obviously buying calls on Monday continues to look good. Gold was little changed on the day but the XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX was up 7/8, GG and NEM gained 2/3. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. I'll be getting long the gold shares eventually. Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired. Tomorrow looks like it could open higher since INTC just reported better than expected earnings. But that remains to be seen. Expiration week as well and so far there has been a positive bias. Not much else to say here, it's just a summer Tuesday.
Monday, July 13, 2009
It was a good day for the market as the Dow gained 185 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher. It looks as though the 880 level on the S&P 500 will hold for now. We broke through and did not collapse. Now we are comfortably back above that level. This morning would have been a good time to purchase some OEX calls. But my mind was in summer mode. Another opportunity missed. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The XAU was higher by 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside and closed near their highs. Volume was average for lately. On day reversals here as well as the gold shares were much lower early and came all the way back. Probably would have been a good day to get some calls here too. But who knows? The gold shares could have done better with a $10 move in gold. I'm going to wait for the September calls to come out. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I did not sleep well. So we had a good day to the upside today and there are plenty of earnings to contend with this week. I wasn't properly prepared for todays action and I think it was a result of having such a bad first half of the year. Confidence is everything. Mine is lacking at the moment. We'll have to see where we go into the expiration. I don't think this is the beginning of another long term rally but I could be wrong and often am.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Kind of a lackluster day as the Dow lost 36 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. A summer Friday. The NASDAQ was in positive territory and we are very oversold both short and medium term. I would be surprised if Monday was not an upside day. But the market will go where it wants and I've been pretty wrong about things for half the year. Gold lost $3 and the XAU was off 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves on light volume. The dollar was a bit stronger. We are oversold on the gold shares but I'm still in a waiting mode for a position there. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So it's the weekend and time to catch up on the charts. Option expiration is next week and I have no plans for a trade at the moment. Summation index still pointing down. My scenario would be for higher prices early in the week and then selling off from there. But that's a guess. So we'll see what happens. Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, July 09, 2009
Up and down today as the market tries to make up its mind what to do. We ended with a gain of 4 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were positive and the volume went back to being light. I get the feeling that the market is doing what it can to just hold on here. We are oversold though. However the summation index continues to the downside. I guess I'm trying to make up my mind as well. No OEX trades for now. Option expiration is next week. Gold bounced back $7 today and the XAU rose a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. Oversold here as well but I'm in no hurry to get long after yesterdays action. The dollar got pounded today as well and gold didn't move that much. It isn't a bullish sign. I'm going to have to be patient here and as I've said before that isn't the easiest thing to do. Mentally I'm feeling tired after yesterdays mini vacation. It is summer and things tend to be slow down. So it's sit and wait for now.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Well we managed a gain of 14 points today on the Dow. Volume picked up. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We were lower for most of the day and made a last hour comeback. The market is oversold here and due for some upside but I don't think it will be much. But I could be wrong. We did breach the 880 level on the S&P 500 but have already snapped all the way back. No OEX trades for now but I'd be cautious one way or the other. Gold got rocked today, down $20. The XAU lost 4 1/4. ABX lost 1 1/4, GG a buck and NEM almost 1 1/2. Volume picked up a bit to the downside. That's not a good sign for the bullish case. The $920 support level for gold broke down. We are getting oversold on the gold shares though and I would like to own some calls at some point. But I think I'll wait for now. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good. I actually took a day off today and got out of town. It was a nice break in the action. It is summertime. I'll have another day off in 2 weeks. Looking at todays action the market had every reason to head lower and it didn't. Perhaps because of the oversold condition but in the past if we were really going to head lower it wouldn't matter. So perhaps a near term rally is in the offing. As I said earlier though, I can't see it going very far. But it's all a guess. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
No summer doldrums today as the Dow lost 161 points on average volume. Advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. We are at the moment of truth here with the S&P 500 trying to hold what I consider key support at 880. The summation index is pointing down. Tomorrow could be interesting. I don't think that I'll be putting on any OEX trades but who knows? Gold was up $4 but sold off a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 3/4, which wasn't too bad considering the negative day in equities. ABX was off 1/3, while GG and NEM were little changed. Volume was light. I would like to wait for the September options to come on board but that is a week and a half away. Just about oversold in the gold shares though. Sometimes patience is the hardest thing to do. Mentally I'm feeling alright, could have slept more. I'm going to try and not do anything stupid here but you never know. If we don't hold up here at 880 on the S&P, we will be going much lower in my opinion. But it hasn't broken down yet. So I'll watch and wait.
Monday, July 06, 2009
The Dow gained 44 points on this summer Monday. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. It was a positive one day reversal as we opened lower and closed higher. Not a lot of data out this week so it should be pretty slow. But you never know when it comes to the market. No OEX trades for now. Gold lost $8 and the XAU dropped 5 3/4. The gold shares continue to under perform the price of gold. ABX off a buck, GG down 1 3/4 and NEM dipped 3/4. Volume summer light as has been the case. Gold was down and the dollar didn't really do much. However oil was weaker and that could be the root of the cause. Commodities in general are being sold at the moment. So I'm going to try and be patient with the gold shares here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. And so it goes. The long weekend is over and we are in summer doldrums mode. Not the best of trading environments. If and when there is a decent signal, I'll try and act on it. Until then it's a game of watching and waiting.
Thursday, July 02, 2009
We ended the short week on a down note as the Dow lost 223 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. The employment report came in worse than expected. We are getting to short term oversold. However the volume lately has been non existent. There are no buyers. I can't see anything changing that over the summer unless earnings are much better than expected. But it is the market and anything can happen. Summation index with no clear direction at the moment. Gold lost $10 and the XAU shed 4 1/2. ABX and GG lost around 3/4, while NEM dropped 2. Volume light here as well. The dollar was higher even though the jobs situation got worse. More of a flight to safety for the dollar with todays market drop. What it all means for gold going forward is anybodies guess. I still like the gold shares going out to August or September. The next buy signal I see there I will try and take advantage of. The indicators are not oversold as of yet. So it's a waiting game. Mentally I'm a bit tired did not sleep as much. The holiday weekend has arrived and it's time to take it easy for a while. We need to hold at around 880 on the S&P 500 or I fear that the decline will be more than what we've seen so far. Not sure if we will hold up or not. Doesn't feel like it after a day like today. The lack of volume doesn't help things for the bullish cause either. But for now it's time to relax and take a break.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
The Dow gained 57 points today on the cusp of the employment report. Volume was light and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We were up over 100 at one point. The breadth here is encouraging but the volume isn't. It is summer though. The summation index is starting to move sideways here as well as the market. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. I really don't know what to expect. Gold had a good day, up the $13 we lost yesterday. The XAU gained over 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all back up around 1 1/2. Volume was light though. The dollar did lose some ground. One of my thoughts is that the employment report comes out weaker than expected and the dollar gets hit thus supporting gold. Then the dollar gets sold off even more with the holiday here in the US on Friday. That's all just a guess. I also thought that yesterdays sell-off in the gold shares was just end of the month activity and that may prove to be correct. But I didn't act on it. It's tough for me to take a stand here with the volume so anemic. So there's no rush to do anything at the moment but that could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. We'll wrap up the week tomorrow and then take a long weekend. It seems as though the market has really slowed down here and that is expected for the summer. But summer has just begun and at this rate it could be a long one.