Friday, July 29, 2005
The Dow lost 65 points today on contracting volume. Advance/declines were negative. End of the month profit taking? I wouldn't know. A lot of bullish talk lately. So I'll look for lower to sideways action. Gold was up another couple bucks today and the XAU was lower. I think we are going to break down on the XAU here. If we can't rally with higher gold then I think there is trouble ahead. I could be wrong. ABX had good earnings and could not get going. I want to get long but if the technicals don't support that I'm sitting tight. Looking at GE again but nothing doing there yet either. It is the summer. 3 weeks to go for August options. I'll try and find something but no guarantees. Patience is sometimes necessary and this could be one of those times. Mentally I'm taking it easy, trying not to stress out one way or the other. The weekend has arrived and I'm going to try and take it easy.
Thursday, July 28, 2005
Dow up almost another 70 points today. Volume again pretty good for the summer with advance/declines almost 3 to 1 positive. Going nowhere but up. Could the year ending in 5 theory hold true again? It's only July. This could be end of month stuff. Gold was up over 3 bucks but the XAU didn't move. Volume on ABX was heavy and it didn't do anything either. Earnings out after the bell. I have stayed on the sidelines. I'm wary of the XAU not moving with gold itself. Bunch of data out tomorrow. Probably best for me to sit it out here for a bit longer. Maybe something next week. Don't know, not sure. Trying not to get anxious and then doing something just for the sake of doing it. Mentally I'm OK for now. Getting it together and remaining under control for now. But you never know in this crazy game.
Wednesday, July 27, 2005
The Dow rose 57 points and the volume really picked up. Advance/declines were positive. Interesting. End of month action perhaps? Gold was up over a buck and the XAU was flat but jumped at the close. Not up a lot but was surprising. NEM announced after the bell and is up around a quarter. ABX announces tomorrow. Yes, I would like to get long but haven't yet. I am concerned that all we get here is summer drift. Will August provide any catalyst for higher prices? I really don't think so. I'm going to wait for the technicals. It's what I have to do. That said if things line up right, I'll do a trade. Patience is needed. I'm trying. Mentally I'm doing OK. It's a battle and I know it. Just trying to hang in there at this point and prepare for the next trade. Tough game.
Tuesday, July 26, 2005
Dow down 16 points on increased volume. Advance/declines were positive though. Plus the overall market was higher. Gold declined around 3 bucks and the XAU lost over a point. I really want to get long gold here but the technicals are not in place just yet. I somehow have got to be patient. Seems like summer doldrums but I'm not sure. End of month on Friday. Not much else to say. Mentally I'm doing better but it's a day to day thing. Got to somehow stay on track. It should be easy and I need to get my focus back. I am having computer problems but I can't use that as an excuse. It isn't easy to be successful in the game. I've got to stay dedicated. I'm pretty sure I can do it but sometimes the doubts creep in. Always a battle but I'm up for the challenge.
Monday, July 25, 2005
The Dow lost 54 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. End of month this week. No imminent trades seen for the OEX. Gold was up fractionally but the XAU lost a point. Again, volume was light. ABX hardly moved but NEM was down some. Don't know what to do there so sidelines for now. Really would like to get long though because $420 on gold has held once again. But there was an extra week on this option cycle so it's like this week is just the start. I'll try and be patient. Perhaps we will enter a period of summer doldrums in which case, sitting out is the best course of action. We'll see.
Friday, July 22, 2005
The Dow gained a little over 20 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. I'll check things over the weekend. Gold didn't do much and neither did the XAU. Volume was light there also. Now do I lay off trading here in the summer? It's hard to say. My mind really needs to get back on track with the markets. We'll see what happens, I guess. I've taken a long enough break it seems. The markets aren't going to wait around for me that's for sure. But when in doubt, stay out. I'll try to get it together over the weekend, grow up already and get back to business. It just has to be done.
Thursday, July 21, 2005
The Dow lost 60 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. China revalued its currency today. Markets don't know what to make of it. Gold was up over $3 and the XAU rose over 2 points. It looks like I may have been asleep at the wheel here. Looks too late to make a trade here. There is an extra week on the August options though. I've definitely got to get my act together. It ain't easy at this point though. So what happens with the China currency question? Don't know. There was volume into the gold shares though and a major trendline is about to be possibly taken out to the upside. Gotta pay attention.
Wednesday, July 20, 2005
Dow up over 40 points. Advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was heavier than usual. Seems like the market wants to go higher. Gold up a couple bucks but not much movement in the XAU. Opening day at Del Mar so I left the trading day early. No more trades this month is the likely scenario. But ya never know...
Monday, July 18, 2005
The Dow lost 65 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. Gold was relatively unchanged as was the XAU. My mind is not really ready to trade at this time. Outside influences have taken over for now. I really need to get my act together because it just can't go on like this. It is the toughest game in the world and requires your utmost attention. I cannot have other things influencing how I think and what I do. It just won't work out that way. So I will stay on the sidelines until I can sort things out. It is the prudent thing to do.
Friday, July 15, 2005
The Dow tacked on another 12 points today on light volume, which was surprising considering it was an expiration Friday. Advance/declines were about even. I'm thinking it will be slow for the rest of the month. Summer doldrums perhaps. We shall see. Gold was up around a buck but the XAU dropped a couple points. Gotta check all the charts over the weekend. GE announced earnings but it didn't help it. I'll most likely be on the sidelines for a while here. Mentally I'm spent and things just keep getting more interesting there. I won't be trading until my head is right. It will be a down July for me but I'll be back with some good trades in the future. Just have to keep the discipline and continue doing the work day to day and everything will be fine. Time for the weekend break...
Thursday, July 14, 2005
Up 70 points on the Dow with increased volume. But the advance/declines were negative so I think this rise is just about over. Gold lost around 4 bucks today and the XAU dropped over 2 points. So my prognosis for the ABX trade was way off anyway. I sold out this morning when it didn't rise with the overall market. A loss of course but that was expected when I got filled. It was an 80% loss. Probably the biggest percentage loss of the year. Again, that's to be expected when you do mindless things. I can't beat myself up over it too much more, it's done with. But I can't make mistakes like that again. I'll have to hit the sidelines for a while now and regroup. Probably take the rest of July off. Next months options have an extra week on them. But I said I would stay out this week also. Dumbass. And so it goes. You've just got to keep going and not get down on yourself. Losses are part of the game. It's a battle against myself. This time I lost.
Wednesday, July 13, 2005
Up about 43 points today on the Dow on decreasing volume. Advance/declines were negative. Not a lot of movement so far into the expiration. Lots of data today but didn't see a lot of price action. Gold lost over 2 bucks today. The XAU dropped half a point. ABX lost ground but not much on light volume. My options are under water and baring a miracle will be sold at a loss or expire worthless. A really stupid trade that does not bode well going forward. It is always a battle with myself and this time I lost I guess. Not much money involved here but the mental capital is enormous. If you can't perform under these conditions then when exactly will you? This trade was just really dumb. How do you go on from here when the doubts will be highlighted? No clear signal yet taking on a trade with less than 4 days left? Are you kidding me? You get what you deserve. No discipline and the brain of an imp. Like I said even if it works the risk just doesn't justify even doing it. Learn something already. You won't last long if this mindless bullshit continues. You haven't come this far to start blowing it now.
Tuesday, July 12, 2005
The Dow dropped 5 points today on a slight increase in volume. Advance/declines were positive. Lots of data out tomorrow so we will see what is focused on. Gold was down a bit the XAU was basically flat. I did something stupid today though. I entered an ABX trade. With 3 days left. I don't know what I was thinking. I wasn't, I guess because I already know that this trade probably won't work. I'm long some calls that expire on Friday. I wanted to cancel the order when I finally came to my senses but it was too late. So there you have it. You always have to guard against yourself. Even if this thing works, which it won't, the risk isn't worth the reward. It won't be a big enough winner to justify the trade. I only threw a few hundred at it but it is not a good habit to get into and I definitely made a blunder. There will be better opportunities down the road and that's that. Sometimes I'm an idiot and this is one of those times. Mentally I feel like a fool and I can't have that happen. I need to get it together already. It just can't go on like this.
Monday, July 11, 2005
The Dow rose 70 points as the rally continues. Volume was OK and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1. New highs are expanding so this could go on a while longer. Possible McClellan oscillator divergence setting up though. Time will tell. No trades for the OEX in the works right now. Gold was up around $3 and the XAU rose almost 2 points. Volume was nothing special. Trade data out on Wednesday and that could be a mover. Weekly XAU almost looks like a breakout and if so I will have to get long something. Hard to say. Technicals are oversold on a daily basis for the gold shares. 4 days until expiration and I should probably just sit it out. Mentally things are looking up but it's a roller coaster ride sometimes and my head is not totally together. It will get better.
Sunday, July 10, 2005
Did not get here to post on Friday because it was my birthday. We were up almost 150 points on 3 to 1 advance/declines. Volume was good. Option expiration week lies ahead. Perhaps some volatility. Gold didn't do much and neither did the gold shares. I don't have any trades in the works. Probably will stay on the sidelines. Mentally I'm spent. Gotta lay low. This too, will pass.
Thursday, July 07, 2005
The market sold off hard this morning on a bombing in England but recovered to be up 30 points. Impressive. Advance/declines were positive and the volume picked up. Employment report tomorrow. No trades for now. Gold was up a bit and the XAU also rose but no great shakes. NEM didn't move much and the options I held are losing value. No trades for now. Mentally, I'm shot. There probably won't be any trades in the near future. When outside influences become so great that you can't think straight, you've just gotta pull back. This is what is occurring to me at this time. I cannot elaborate because this is a business blog. But suffice it to say when you are not mentally there you should not trade. It is a difficult game normally. Throw in some extra thoughts and it is better to wait it out on the sidelines. So that is what I'm going to do. I've had to do this before so it's not the first time. And times like these are really few and far between. So I'll deal with it. I have no other choice...
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
The Dow lost 100 points today with a slight pick-up in volume. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 100 market would indicate. No clear signal before Fridays employment report. So no OEX trades for now. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU rose a point. The gold shares had what looks like just a bounce. Volume was light. I could have sold out today for a better price but I just could not take the risk. Looks like I'm going to have to stay on the sidelines here as well. I have no other trades in the works. Mentally I'm doing OK even with the recent loss. You just gotta keep moving on in this business. It ain't easy but it does pay off in the long run. I'm feeling pretty good, probably because my birthday is coming up on Friday. Can't let the feelings interfere with the trades though.
Tuesday, July 05, 2005
The Dow was up about 70 points in post holiday trading. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive almost at a 2 to 1 ratio. Not much news but we were oversold. Gold continued down another $4. The XAU lost over 2 points and ABX along with NEM got slammed. I sold my NEM calls for a loss. Fridays action was negated and the head and shoulders patterns that looked so good and had all the volume characteristics, failed. Uptrend lines were also broken and the stochastics rolled over. I just had to bail out there isn't much else to do. I could not wait around and hope. It was a 65% loss and that's never good. I also think it was the 2nd biggest money loss of the year. Ouch. Not a good way to start off the second half of the year. But it happens. That is the nature of the game. You gotta move on and not let it affect the next trade. Easier said than done. It looked like such a good set-up too. But I really couldn't let the loss get any bigger. It was already over the 50% threshold. Where to go from here? I don't know. Nothing in the pipeline at this point. I'll check things tonight and we'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK I suppose. Sometimes you've just gotta see things as they are, not as you want them to be. It may be painful for a while but in the long run you must be honest with yourself.
Friday, July 01, 2005
The Dow gained 28 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were pretty positive though. We are getting oversold both short and medium term here. OEX calls may be purchased next week. Gold got killed to day as the dollar rose to new recovery highs. It was down over 8 bucks. It was quite a day for the gold shares. The XAU was down over 2 points but somehow turned around and finished up fractionally. Amazing. When gold goes down but the XAU doesn't that usually means higher gold shares are in the offing. ABX finished higher and NEM came back to be off just a bit. My NEM calls are right where I purchased them with 2 weeks to go. Might work out or today could have been a head fake to the upside. Interesting to be sure. Don't know what to make of it but we'll see what happens next week. I guess China said something about floating its currency. Will check the news over the long weekend. It will be nice to take a break here for a few days. Mentally I'm a little mixed up with what is going on outside of the market. Will try and search for answers over the weekend. It isn't bad though as I have come to grips with the situation as best I can. It isn't bothering me as much as it did but it's still out there to be dealt with. I think everything will be OK.