Friday, September 30, 2005
The Dow up about 15 points on the last day of the month. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. I expect a pullback at the beginning of next week. It will happen. Overbought and need a break. GE was up 2 cents and that too should fall early next week. My options are going nowhere. The employment number on Friday will be the mover, I believe. We'll see. Gold was down a few bucks and the XAU lost a point and a half. Volume was light on the gold shares. I need to be careful here. The put options are showing a slight profit. I will have to determine some downside targets over the weekend. That's if all goes well. Still three weeks on the options. Mentally in a slight funk due to outside influences but it goes with the territory. Getting better on the routine. Might be back here over the weekend. More work to do though. Not a lot of thoughts at the moment. Need to break for a couple days but it will be tough. The market never sleeps...
Thursday, September 29, 2005
The Dow was up about 80 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Overbought now here for sure. Would expect sideways action into next Fridays employment report. GE was up 15 cents and the options I own didn't move. We'll see about this one. Gold was up near the highs today and I shorted the XAU. The XAU was up a couple points and I fear now that I am early as we have come out of what could be a consolidation implying higher prices. The volume was good for the gold shares. Then why did I do it? It looks like there could be a divergence on the RSI. Higher prices and a lower RSI. Time will tell but I don't know. I also read something about the fact that the XAU is ready to turn around. I'm hoping that the article did not influence my decision today but it may have. You can't go by the bullshit that you read somewhere. You gotta go with the technicals. They were hyping gold again on CNBC so that is a contrary sign for me as well. End of the month tomorrow and don't know what that means really until it happens. Perhaps funds will lock into some gold profits. Perhaps they will add gold to show they own some winners. Overbought there though so we'll see. No specific target yet but I guess I can hope that the trendline breaks. Good Luck. Mentally I'm doing better with a good nights sleep and I'm getting back to the basics that have worked in the past. Like reading my blue book in the morning to get in the right frame of mind to trade. We'll see how it goes.
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Dow up 16 points on average volume again. Advance/declines were about even. We now have a short term overbought signal. I don't think that it is worth shorting. Gold was up 6 bucks and the XAU rose over 2 points. I would like to short the XAU or NEM but I just can't bring myself to do it yet. The volume keeps going in to the upside but we are overbought and have been for a while. The more prudent play might be to wait for the pullback and then get long. We'll see. GE was down a few cents on average volume. Options aren't moving. This trade isn't looking too good at the moment. Mentally I didn't get a good nights sleep so my mind isn't exactly where it needs to be. I am working on the day to day discipline that I used to have but is now elusive. Have to get it back to be successful. There are no shortcuts. Doing the best that I can but it isn't enough at this point. Have to correct that. I'll check the weekly charts tonight and see if a gold play is warranted...
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
Dow up around 12 points on negative advance/declines. Volume was average. Working off the oversold condition and going nowhere. Not a good sign. Greenspan blabbered today. End of the month coming up. GE was up around 35 cents today. The options didn't move. Not sure about this one but the timing on the entry was off, obviously. Gold sold off a few bucks and the XAU was down around 2 points. The puts didn't move much and the calls held their value, which is strange. Implies higher prices. I don't know what I want to do here now so I'm staying out until I can figure it out. Uptrend line is still intact but we are right there. Tomorrow could be the difference. Possible flag consolidation on the charts but still overbought by some readings. Otherwise, mentally I think I'm starting to come back. Don't know for sure but I'm trying. Patience and discipline would help. Gotta do the work everyday too. Not a problem. Thinking that maybe if I get it together that October can be a very good month as September should have been. We'll see...
Monday, September 26, 2005
The market gained about 25 points today on OK volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was kind of weak. This could just be a bounce. Maybe we need more time to build a bottom. The GE calls I own are going nowhere. Looks like a loser but there is a lot of time. If it can go sideways here instead of down I think it might have a chance. Gold sold off early and then came back to be up a couple of bucks. The XAU gained over 2 points but came off its high. I would like to short something here with the gold shares but not exactly positive about it. We are overbought. Still 4 weeks to go on the options. We did bounce off of the short-term uptrend line. I guess we'll see if we take out the recent highs tomorrow. Tough call. Mentally I still need to get the day to day discipline back. The focus is returning. But this is the toughest game in the world. Only your best effort will suffice. Anything less just isn't worth your time and you'll get killed. The competition is real. And a lot of it is with yourself. I'm trying my best under the current circumstances. Gotta get it together. It's the only way.
Friday, September 23, 2005
The Dow lost a couple points and volume contracted. Advance/declines were slightly positive. Waiting for a hurricane to hit the Gulf coast. Oversold and I feel a bounce is coming. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU lost a point. Can't seem to sell this index off. I'll get long at the uptrend line, which is coming up soon. Have to be careful though. GE up a few cents on light volume. Just waiting there. Want to get out if it shows a profit. Might have been a little early there. Mentally my mind has other things on it. Not the best for trading but it is Friday and the weekend has arrived. I'm starting to get more into the flow of things after many months of indecision. We'll see what happens. I'll try and relax for a couple days and be back at it on Monday.
Thursday, September 22, 2005
The Dow gained 44 points today on heavy volume again. Advance/declines were negative though and new lows have just overtaken new highs. Not a good sign going forward but I bought some GE October calls today. Why? I think we are getting oversold here both short and intermediate term. My indicators show that at least some type of bounce is due about now. I haven't risked a lot of money here and I really want to go out to November. But maybe I bought too many as the commission cost is over 10% of the trade capital. We'll see what happens. Could be wrong and wouldn't surprise me if it was. But again, we'll see. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU was down a point. NEM held in there pretty good and there seems to be people to buy the gold shares when they fall. Might have a flag forming on the daily chart implying higher prices. Or it is building a minor top. Don't know. I still wanna get long there if we go sideways for a while. Mentally I'm concentrating more but need to be a little more calm during the trading day. Habit and routine are coming back but not where I want them yet. Working on it.
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
The Dow lost over 100 points today on increasing volume. Advance declines about 2 to 1 negative again. Summation index pointing down. Weaker second half of September. I'll look to buy some November calls at some point. Gold back up a couple bucks and the XAU rallied over 3 points. Not sure what to do here now. It is just staying overbought. Could simply just keep going higher. I do want to get some sort of puts in here though. Maybe. Gotta see what goes on here. Extra week on the options makes timing a little less important longer term. But who knows. Trying to keep it together and not do anything stupid. There isn't any rush I suppose and I don't have a decent signal yet. But the money is out there. Mentally I'm coming back but it seems now I'm chomping at the bit and that may not be the right attitude to have here. Discipline needs to be adhered to. Patience, focus. I'm trying...
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
The Dow lost about 75 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative again. This all plays into my scenario of a weaker second half of September. Not that I'm going to be right about that or anything but I think that will be the case. Hopefully it will set up for buying some calls for November, if the year ending in 5 theory holds up. Gold was down and the XAU lost over 2 points. NEM was down over a buck and the puts I didn't purchase are well in the money. It pains me but I must keep going. I'm now looking to get long at the uptrend line, which for NEM is at 43.50. For the XAU it's 105 roughly. I don't know if the line will hold but we'll find out I guess. Mentally I'm coming back to where I have to be as I come to grips with my life as it is now. There is much to be worked out and considered here though. I'm trying my best but it ain't easy. Well worth it though. My focus is coming back and I have begun to get it together. I'm also looking out to November for some GE calls but there is still some research necessary before I do that trade. Not much else. The Fed raised rates another quarter. Language stayed the same. Looking to take it easy for the rest of today. A little work to do later is about it. I canceled the overnight order for NEM puts. Did not come close to getting filled. Another missed opportunity but the ideas are right on and eventually I gotta believe that they will pay off.
Monday, September 19, 2005
The Dow lost 84 points on pretty good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Could be post expiration action or who knows? Gold was up over $7 today. The gold shares rallied but then fell off to finish negative. I wanted to get some NEM puts but was too slow once again. My ideas are good but the trading leaves much to be desired. I'm hanging in there. I still think this might work but not sure. We do need a little rest in gold. Fed announcement tomorrow. Probably more of the same but I really would like to get short something here. Way overbought on all the gold shares. I think it's gonna work but it is a matter of if I'll get in or not. Might leave an overnight order just in case. But then might not want it. And so it goes. The most difficult game in the world and I'm immersed in it. But lately, I'm just not up to the task. It seems like an endless crack in the record here. Really have to get it together now and I will. Can't keep making up excuses or what have you. It's always been up to me and always will be. I need not look any further. Getting back to the trade, today was a one-day reversal for the gold shares and portends lower prices or at least some sideways action. I'm going to look to get short and hopefully take a quick profit. Probably will leave an overnight order now that I think about it. That's it for today.
Friday, September 16, 2005
Dow up over 80 points on expiration heavy volume. Advance/declines positive. Gold up another 5 bucks and NEM up on heavy volume again. The XAU up to resistance on heavy volume also. And so it goes. The move in gold should pause here but if it doesn't then there will be no chance to profit from it. It has turned parabolic at this point. I blew it and it feels horrible. But I can't dwell on it. Could be expiration related too but I knew that was possible. Could have made the OEX calls trade yesterday and of course that would have worked well too. When you know it and you don't do it there is nothing to be said. What can you say? I am in a trading funk. I need to snap out of it. It is painful. There are no excuses. I can try and place the reasons elsewhere but it all begins and ends with me. I have got to somehow get it together. I have just let so much money just run through my hands that it makes me sick. I can take solace in the fact that my ideas and market prognosis is correct but without the money to go with it, it is an empty feeling. What more can I say? The weekend is here and there is still a lot of work to do. I need to focus and get back to what has made me successful in the past. It has got to be done now. I cannot not will not continue like this...
Thursday, September 15, 2005
Dow up 13, good volume, negative advance/declines. Gold up $5 and the XAU continues higher as does NEM. I did briefly put in an order for some OEX calls then came to my senses and canceled it. Might get up early and try it again tomorrow morning but hopefully not. I read some of the previous posts and it's obvious that I am completely out of it. Definitely missed out on NEM and the XAU. Pathetic but you gotta just move on. I will hope for a pullback and perhaps get long October calls. The move is real I believe because the volume is there. But the % move from here won't be as good. I blew it and it's time to try and move on. What it shows you is just how much profit there is out there to be had. Plenty. The ideas are legit. The price moves are real. Just gotta get my mind back into it. It all comes back to focus and discipline. I haven't had them lately. I will try and get them back. But who knows. It hasn't happened yet. I need to get back into my routine and put my teeth problems and personal life behind. Gotta be done. Having trouble at the moment. Need to correct it. Not much else to say. Expiration tomorrow...
Wednesday, September 14, 2005
The Dow lost over 50 points today. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. I'm trying not to do anything stupid here. Only 2 days left and I would like to get some calls but I will probably just sit it out. I should have gotten some NEM calls yesterday. Had a chance to get the same ones I sold earlier very cheap. But I wasn't paying attention. I was distracted and that won't cut it. I was in the dentist for the final 2 hours today and that's not good either. The XAU was up 4 points and NEM soared about 2 bucks on very heavy volume. It was an opportunity missed and you know how I feel about that. There is no excuse. I just wasn't good enough this time around. It pains me to think that my reasoning was right on and I didn't make a fucking dime off of it. I must be a complete moron because I know what it takes and I still haven't brought myself to do it. I'm hanging around in toothache pain or hiking around in the woods. Hiking has it's place but not at the expense of trading. I know what happened and I'm still trying to adjust to my situation in life as it now is. It is harder than I thought it would be. My focus and concentration are gone. The discipline is non-existent. I can't do it like this. Gold has been going higher, the volume is there and I am twiddling my thumbs. I must be an idiot. It's one thing to see it coming. It's another to do what you must and make some money off of it. I can't believe how bad I've gotten. Have I done all this work and put in all this time for nothing? It seems so at this point. But I do know things will change and I will get my shit back together. Gotta. Now where do we go from here. I think it would be best to stay out right now. My mind just isn't able to function properly. I need to start over maybe and take it slow. But the markets are relentless and that's how you've got to be too. I'm going to step back and regroup. I have to. I don't want to go in lamenting about all I've missed here. Time will heal that but it is painful now. There is no easy path in the game. An honest look at what has just occurred is necessary and vital to future success. Really, it is impossible for me to trade under the current circumstances. Changes must and will be made. I know what has to be done and it is up to me to do it. There is no other way...
Tuesday, September 13, 2005
Dow down 85 points today on average volume. Advance/declines over 2 to 1 negative. Summation index might be rolling over. Will have to wait for the reading. Gold down around 4 bucks and the XAU off a couple points. This now looks like a beginning move to the downside that could last a couple weeks at least. There is a negative divergence on the RSI. I'll wait it out or perhaps take a short position. Fed in a week. More inflation data on Thursday. Probably the prudent course of action here would be inaction. With my mind not totally focused and my mouth still hurting I should step aside. I'm not sure I can do that but I'll try. It would be the right move at this time I believe. I am too scattered and not in the right frame of mind to be at my best in the game. Sidelines for now...
Monday, September 12, 2005
The Dow was up 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. No conviction one way or the other here. No OEX trades on the horizon. Gold didn't move much and neither did the XAU. Gold shares did sell off early and then came all the way back. Not sure what to do here they are overbought but could have another upleg before expiration. I'm looking to get short but not sure if I'll risk it. Would like to get in some type of short-term trade here. Mentally I'm having more trouble with my teeth and that takes away from what I have to do here. It would be wise to just step aside here. Don't know if I will. Not much else to say. Still haven't returned to the routine that is necessary for success. Its gotta be done. I'm working on it and will make it happen. There are no other choices.
Friday, September 09, 2005
The Dow was up 82 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We continue higher and I guess it will play out that way going into the expiration. Gold rose about 3 bucks and the XAU was up over 2 and a half points. I had an order to sell my NEM calls in overnight and it got filled at a small profit. But NEM kept rising and the profit would have been decent but I was already gone. You can never predict what the markets will do. Who knew there would be such a big move there today. I had thought there might be but I was afraid of a loss. I basically blew it again. My mind and thinking are not where they need to be. My ideas have been correct but I haven't been able to cash in on them. I know what's wrong but I haven't taken the necessary steps to fix it. But it has got to be done. I hate missing opportunities and poor trading results. The focus and discipline are not there. I mention those two things a lot. Focus and discipline. They are important, very important. They have helped get me to where I am today. Gotta get my mind right. Anyway NEM was up big on heavy volume and I think higher prices are coming but a pause is needed. ABX did not rise much and it has been leading the gold shares. Perhaps some puts can be purchased next week. The RSI is also at the top of its range where pullbacks occur. I'll have to check the economic calendar for next week to see what's coming up. Might be able to trade off of that. The XAU is overbought also. But it is the weekend and I need to rest and not beat myself up over the recent events. The ideas are there, it's the trading that needs to be worked on. I'll try and do what it takes but it won't be easy...
Thursday, September 08, 2005
Dow down 37 points with volume good. Advance/declines negative. Due for a pause but I still think the trend is higher and perhaps will purchase some OEX calls here shortly. Gold up over a dollar and the XAU up over a point and a half. NEM was higher but didn't do much for my calls. Need to sell them at a loss tomorrow. It has to be done. Mentally just trying to keep it together. One week on the options and there will be opportunity and risk as well. Don't know what I'll do at this point but would like to try something. Gotta find the focus somehow. Toughest game in the world and can not be played half-assed. Need to step back, I think and reassess just what the hell is going on here with my trading. That could be the wisest thing to do. Hard to say. Still thinking of some OEX calls for the final week. Or perhaps I'll just get out and stay out. Indecision is a killer too. Obviously my brain is not up to the task at this point. I need to listen to myself and maybe read over these blogs this weekend. We'll see what happens tomorrow...
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
The Dow up 44 on better volume. Advance/declines barely positive. Probably need a rest but who knows with this rally? Gold didn't move much and neither did the XAU. I put in a limit order for the NEM calls to sell but didn't get filled. Need to bail out, it ain't gonna be a winner. I'm tired and need to rest. I should just stay out at this point because my mind and heart just aren't into it. It's a damn shame really. I've missed the rally. I can't get motivated to do the work necessary. My mind is elsewhere. There is no point in even trying to trade at this point. The discipline is gone. I am pre-occupied somewhere else. Better to take another loss and re-group at this point. I do know that I can't trade in the mental state that I'm in now. It just won't happen. I need to turn it around but don't know when that's going to happen. Better to pull back and get through this period. It's all I can really do.
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
Market zooms to the upside over 130 points as of now. This post is early due to time constraints. Advance/declines are over 2 to 1 positive. I had a feeling they would run it up in the beginning of September and I think that will prove to be correct. I am lame for not acting on it. That has been the story lately. Gold isn't moving, the XAU is down and the NEM calls I bought are losing money. This trade will most likely be a loser too. I am in a bad way at the moment. Perhaps the best course of action at this time is just to scale back or get out. It is obvious that I don't have the focus right now to do what is necessary to be successful. There is no hiding from the truth. The discipline just isn't there. For whatever the reasons, opportunities are passing me by. There isn't much else to say or do.
Friday, September 02, 2005
The Dow lost 12 points today on light pre-holiday volume. Advance/declines were negative. Employment was less than expected. Oil pulled back a bit. No OEX trades here but perhaps next week. Gold was up a buck, the XAU basically unchanged. I canceled my open order for more NEM calls. I'm gonna have to sit back and see from here. Still think it could work but might switch to the XAU. The calls I bought are unchanged. My thinking is higher prices are coming and I would like to see some pull-back first. Not sure, will reassess over the weekend. Again, I need to get the focus and discipline here for the next 2 weeks and beyond. I'll do the work over the weekend and be ready to go Tuesday morning. There will be no excuses. I'm going to make it happen. It's up to me and I know that. I'll try my best and that's all I can do.
Thursday, September 01, 2005
The Dow lost over 20 points today on heavy volume again. Advance/declines were positive though. I think we're headed higher. Still digesting the effects of hurricane Katrina. No OEX trades for now but I will be leaning to a positive bias. Gold jumped $9 today. Of course I'm disappointed to miss this move. However I'm chasing it. I canceled my open NEM orders and purchased the next strike price. I think this is the beginning of a big move. I could be wrong and perhaps should have waited for a pullback. The volume was heavy, a good sign for continued positive action. I will perhaps get some XAU calls on a pullback. The index was up over 3 points. Employment report tomorrow and if it's weak I expect continued weakness in the dollar. I should have been on this earlier. I have not had the focus and discipline necessary for success lately. It is my own fault. There is no one or no thing to blame. It all falls on me. That's just the way it is. I accept that and will try to move forward from here. My mind has got to get back to where it needs to be to play this game. There are no second chances and the market doesn't care what I think. It's a very difficult and tough game to play. But if you're gonna play it you better be ready. No excuses. I've got to get it together. Actions speak louder than this blog. It's up to me...