Friday, June 30, 2006
The Dow lost 40 points today and the volume was pretty good. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Most of the action came in the last hour due to the end of the quarter moves. Overall the market seems stronger now and the summation index is pointing upwards. So higher prices are probably on the way. How high, I don't know. Gold took off today, up over $27. Probably due to the weaker dollar and perhaps because of some Osama noise. The XAU rose over 2 points as it had most of its gains yesterday. Volume wasn't like it was before but it is the summer and money seems to be heading back into gold. I'll have to keep an eye on it when I return from vacation. A long weekend is coming up and a Monday session before the July 4th holiday. The markets really won't get back going until next Wednesday. By then, I'll be on vacation for 2 weeks. I will try to just stay away from the day to day market happenings and enjoy myself. I really think that is what's needed. There is nothing I can do about the first half of this year. It wasn't pretty. I made numerous mistakes and had some pretty big losing trades. It seems like I always did the wrong thing at the wrong time. I did a couple things right. But my trade win % sucked. I really need to come back strong in the second half. I have before, so it's not out of the question. But I can't continue the way things have been going. I really need to step it up and make the right decisions. Trading isn't easy and I really make it hard sometimes on myself with bonehead moves. I'll work on it. For the first half of the year my trading account was up 22%. It should have been a lot higher. But there will be no looking back now and I'll look forward to a successful second half.
Thursday, June 29, 2006
The Dow soared 217 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The Fed raised rates another quarter point and now everybody thinks that's it. It is the beginning of the summer rally and end of quarter shenanigans. The summation index will now be pointing upwards and signaling higher prices. Gold was up over 7 dollars and the XAU climbed over 9 points. I missed it. I knew it would happen and I did not take advantage of it. The weeklies were all back in the buy zone and I just sat here. I stopped paying attention and trading because I have a vacation next week. I shut it down and went on stand-by mode when I should have been paying attention. I could have went out an extra month but was too stupid to think of it. I hate missing opportunities. There is no sense in doing all of the work if you're not going to take advantage of what's there. It is frustrating. It happens a few times a year and it does me no good. You have got to take chances in the game. You pick your spots where the odds are in your favor. This, I did not do. So now I can leave for New York and think about what an idiot I am. But I will probably just try and forget about it. Lamenting on it does me no good. It would have been a good trade had I been good enough. But that just wasn't the case. We will see the opposite of todays action at another time later this year when the Fed raises rates and the market tanks. I guess I'll have to wait for that. This is the toughest game in the world...
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
The Dow was up about 50 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. Had a good run in the last couple of hours. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Fed tomorrow and I think we are heading higher regardless of what the Fed says or does. Just my guess on the markets Fed reaction. Gold was down 3 dollars and the XAU was unchanged. Volume nothing much there either as we are really in the summer mode. There will be trades but they won't be as plentiful as in the autumn is my guess. I'm leaving on vacation in less than a week. After the announcement tomorrow, I believe the markets will really slow down. Holiday weekend and such. Mentally I'm in stand-by mode. Physically, I'm exhausted from playing too much golf in the heat yesterday. Awaiting the Fed...
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
The Dow lost 120 points today on OK volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Volume picked up a bit to the downside. Don't know what to make of it. Still waiting on the Fed and then a long weekend. Tuesday is a holiday so Monday will be a non-event. Gold was down over 3 bucks and the XAU lost over 3 points. Volume picked up a bit here on the downside also. No trades in sight. Looks like I'll be waiting for the August cycle unless something just stands out over my vacation. But I doubt it. Mentally I'm doing fine, preparing for some time off. Playing golf this afternoon and it is humid so I will be preparing for the east coast conditions. Otherwise, the trend seems to remain down for stocks. Perhaps the Fed can change that on Thursday. Technically, we're not at overbought or oversold extremes. Summation index still pointing down and in negative territory. Time to sit it out for a while, I guess.
Monday, June 26, 2006
The Dow gained 56 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Seemed like a slow day with a rally near the close. No trades. Gold was unchanged but the XAU gained a point and a half. Volume light there also. Just a summer Monday I guess. Fed announcement on Thursday, so I suppose it's just a waiting game. I be leaving on vacation in a week so I'm really just hanging around. Not doing all the work necessary, just the essentials. Mentally I'm looking forward to a nice break but as I've said before my brain is already in stand-by mode. Not much else to say...
Friday, June 23, 2006
The Dow lost 30 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. Not much to write about that. We were higher earlier in the day. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU was up a couple points. I'm hoping I haven't missed the next upmove in gold here. Time will tell. The volume is weak but the sellers seem to have disappeared. The overall stock market acted better than the Dow today. Summation index still pointing down. Fed meeting next week and the market could feed off of that or it could just be a non-event. The weekend is here, summer is here and I'm almost ready to go on vacation. This is a rare time for me. But the break is needed in light of the terrible trades of May and June. Not much else to say. Kind of in standby mode as I've said before. Summertime...
Thursday, June 22, 2006
The Dow lost 60 points today. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative and the volume was light. Leading indicators were weak. Summation index still pointing down. Gold lost about 5 bucks and the XAU was down a point. Not a lot of volume there. Perhaps the summer doldrums are upon us. Tomorrows volume could tell that story. No trades in the offing and not much else to report here. I am getting very lazy and summer for me has begun. I've already said all that has to be said for now so that's it from here...
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
The Dow rose 104 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. So maybe a good summer rally will begin. I still don't think the summation index has turned positive but another day like today and it will. It seems to be a lack of sellers lately. Gold was up 8 bucks again and the XAU rose over 5 points. The volume wasn't all that great here but perhaps I need to adjust my volume expectations for gold. Just a thought. We have broken the downtrend line in the XAU. I suppose I could look to get long on a snapback to that line. Gold itself is at $590. I'd like to see it build a base but perhaps it won't. Time will tell. Mentally I'm in standby mode still. Same scenario with a vacation coming up and an extra week on the option cycle. So let the summer begin. I'll try not to take on any trades for now and see what happens. Fed meeting next week and I suppose that will set the tone for the week. Otherwise, I'm just gonna take it easy.
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
The Dow gained 32 points today on slightly better volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall markets were weaker. No conviction here. I have no trades. Gold was up around 8 bucks and the XAU rose around 3 points. The volume wasn't that good. I'm looking for lower prices. Not much else to say. Extra week in this option cycle. Mentally I'm in standby mode until after I take this vacation. So really I'm just hanging out. Still watching the markets everyday and doing the work. But there most likely will not be any trades until I return. It will really be a summer of relaxation. And who knows? Perhaps the rest will do me good.
Monday, June 19, 2006
The Dow lost 72 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. I would expect the advance/decline line to pick up here a bit. The summation index is pointing down and it can't stay that way forever. I'm not saying it will be a rip-roaring advance but we need to turn things around here. I have no trades in mind as my vacation looms. Gold was down over 9 dollars today and the XAU lost over 3 points. No trades there either as I will let a base develop if it can. I'm in kind of a standby mode with the vacation and all. Mentally I'm keeping an eye on things but there may not be any trades until August and maybe even not then. I need both the overall market and the gold market to stabilize here and set things up for when I get back. However the markets rarely accommodate you. And so it goes.
Friday, June 16, 2006
The Dow was unchanged today. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. The overall market was down. Option expiration. There isn't much news coming out next week. I'd expect it to be slow. Let the summer doldrums begin. The Fed doesn't meet for another 10 days and even that may not move things. Gold was up over $10 today but the XAU fell over a point. Not a lot of correlation here lately. I'll be looking to get long the gold shares here at some point. Mentally I'm looking forward to taking a break. I haven't taken a vacation since 2002. Not to mention my trading has sucked the past 2 months and I need to get away. It's the weekend and it's the beginning of summer. If I'm smart, the trading will take a back seat for a while and I'll regroup. I will try and look out for autumn and plan my strategy for then. Sometimes doing nothing is the right thing.
Thursday, June 15, 2006
The Dow was up 198 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. It was the bounce I was waiting for and I did not take advantage of it. The profits would have been huge. But it ends up being just another missed opportunity. Boy how I hate those. It really bothers me, even more so than losing money. The first time the technicals called for it, it didn't happen. Not the second. I lost some money and headed for the sidelines. I was wrong to do so. You gotta believe in yourself. I failed again. Gold was up over $10 at one point today. The XAU ended up over 6 points. I sat on the sidelines. If and when the XAU gets back down to 120, I'm getting some calls even if I'm on vacation. Trading can be very frustrating sometimes. This is one of those times. The rewards are great but I haven't had any in so long that I forgot what that was like. I've got to be more disciplined and motivated. What can I say? I'm going on vacation in a couple of weeks. I really don't need one but it was planned some time ago. I'll refresh and rededicate myself when I return. I'm thinking this will be a slow summer, but who knows? We haven't gotten back to the downtrend line that started in May, even with a 200 point gain today. So it's back to the drawing board and time to relax at the same time. The posts here will probably get shorter for a while.
Wednesday, June 14, 2006
The Dow finally bounced today, up 110 points. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was good. I really did want to buy some OEX calls today but I didn't. I'm not a believer in this rally. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. But we are so oversold that another day or two of rally isn't out of the question. Gold was little changed today but the XAU rose over 2 points. I think a base probably needs to be built here before any rally of conseqence. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm out of my element. I'm not at my house and the normal trading enviornment. That is important. You don't realize these things until they actually happen sometimes. Controling your trading enviornment is important. You have to have the proper equipment. You have to be in the right frame of mind. Routine can be very vital to your success as a trader. The work has to be done every day and you have to be consistant. I am taking a break here but the market never stops. Getting back to the markets themselves, I don't think this is the end of the recent worldwide liquidation. Probably just a pause before we begin a long, dull summer. I really don't see anything on the horizon that would get anybody excited about buying stocks. We'll see what happens...
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
The Dow lost 86 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. The worldwide liquidation continues. When the market is oversold and stays there means trouble. I would like to get some calls but I already tried that and lost. We will bounce hard at some point this week. Perhaps tomorrow on the consumer price data. But it's just a guess. Gold got slammed today, down $44. The XAU lost around 5 points at last juncture. I wanna get some calls here too but go out a month or two. But again, in times like these it's really a crapshoot. I am on the sidelines and guess I'm thankful that I didn't lose more the past couple of months. But don't get me wrong. My trading has flat out sucked and I need to work on it. But I am taking a break here and going on vacation in July. I might possibly have a trade in while I'm gone but probably not. Mentally I'm out of my routine for the rest of the week so I'm taking it easy. Trading is a most difficult game and I guess it wouldn't hurt to take a break every now and then. I'll be looking for that bounce in here soon and try to keep myself from doing something stupid.
Monday, June 12, 2006
The Dow dropped another 100 points. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average for lately. I dumped the OEX calls I bought for around a 50% loss. I just couldn't hold on to them any longer. We are really due for a big bounce. It just isn't happening. We are way oversold. There is something going on in the markets but I sure don't know what it is. The technicals are not working the way they usually do. My trading has been horrible for two months but there is not much I can do about it now. I would like to take a shot with some Gold calls here but I am going to try and stay out. Nothing is working for me. I should feel bad about the OEX loss but I blew that one when I didn't get out on Friday. And still the market should have rallied today and it didn't. Inflation data out the next two days and that will move things for sure. But I really should try and stay out. I'll try my best. Mentally it's tough. You put in the time and the results just aren't there. You can't just give up but you sure feel like it sometimes. It's just one of those things. A bad streak in the year. You gotta move on. I have taken some big losses this year already. My win % is terrible. I can't try and trade my way out of it, that's for sure. I'm going on vacation in July. I might just shut it down until I get back. But something in me wants to keep going. I'm a trader and that's what I do. So onward I will go I suppose. My neck hurts and I haven't been sleeping good. No excuses though. I just haven't been good enough. I was lucky to get out when I did today because I didn't put in the usual stop loss order in the morning. Gold is right at the uptrendline and it could rally from here this week. The technicals say buy but they haven't been working lately. Perhaps I just want to put on another trade before the end of the week. Discipline and self-control are important. Sometimes, they are hard to come by. It's also a question of where exactly do I go from here? Perhaps some time off is really what is needed. I can't go on like this, that's for sure. It's hard to step aside but I think that is what is needed and the markets will always be here when I get back. I might miss a post or two here this week since I won't be home the next couple of days. Another loss booked today and it doesn't feel good. Gotta move on...
Friday, June 09, 2006
The Dow lost 46 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. I still am holding my OEX calls. They are showing a loss. I really should have sold them today but I didn't. And therein lies the problem. I had a chance to get out without a loss and I didn't take it. We are up against a downtrend line and I think we can break through it. But if we don't, I'm dead. So I'm probably dead. No discipline. I really need to get my act together. But it won't happen with this trade. I don't know why I can't do what's necessary when the time comes. It is frustrating. The market tone has changed and I must adjust to it. I know this yet I just can't see to bring myself to do it. That has to change or I might as well forget this. The market came back big yesterday and there was no follow through. That isn't bullish for the market. I needed to get out, that's the bottom line and I didn't do it. I'll suffer for it next week. Gold was down a buck and the XAU was off a point. We are at the trendline that has held for weeks. Next week will be key. I think we will hold but do I want to attempt a trade there? I just don't know. My mind is not where it needs to be. Mentally, I'm feeling down on myself. This isn't a good way to be. The weekend is coming up and I don't need to be feeling low. But what can I do? When you play the game and don't have what it takes, you're a fool. The entry on this trade was shit and it goes on from there. Not much else to say. I shoulda stayed out and I should have got out when I didn't stay out...
This piece of shit site has been down for a couple of days. Yesterday was turnaround Thursday as we were down around 200 points and came back to be up 7. The volume was HUGE. I bought some OEX calls and they are slightly profitable at the moment. Gold got slammed yesterday also, down around $15. The XAU was down 9 points but also came back to be down only 3. Gold itself is at an important point. It is right at an uptrend line of many weeks. It looks like that it might hold here. Perhaps some calls would be in order. I'm not sure. I have to focus on the OEX trade and probably should exit it today due to all the recent volatility. Mentally, I'm tired but need to concentrate on what's going on. The summation index is pointing down again. However a good day today could change that. Trading isn't easy. This is a lesson that must be learned.
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
The Dow lost 46 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The S&P 500 wasn't down as much. I would really like to step up and get some calls here but it's tough. The prices are still pretty high. The volatility is confusing. The summation index might be pointing back down today. A lot of crosscurrents. But you've got to step up to the plate and do something sometimes. And tomorrow could be the day for me. Gold was down $14 and the XAU lost 4 points. Volume was good to the downside. We are right at XAU support. I'm going to try and stay away from this for now. Gold is at $625 and I think it can go to $575 before support kicks in. But you never know. Mentally I'm a bit unsure of myself but I think the overall market can rally from here. If it doesn't, it will get ugly fast. I need to get some decent rest and clear my thoughts for the next trade. There is also a chance that I may just do nothing. But I don't want to go that route. I need to check the economic calendar and see what's on tap for the rest of the week. The dollar is firming here also and that won't help gold. I need to get focused and concentrate. Perhaps good things will follow...
Monday, June 05, 2006
The Dow lost 200 points today after the Fed chairmans comments. Volume was average and the advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. Can't say I saw something like that coming and now it looks like lower prices are in the offing. I'd like to get some OEX calls but I'm unsure of myself right now. The volatility has thrown me for a loop. I'll wait for a decent signal and then go from there if it happens. Gold was up 7 bucks today but the XAU lost over 3 points. I had a brief thought of getting some puts this morning but my mind hasn't been focused as it needs to be. Don't know if that would have done anything anyway. The markets are in a state of flux. The movements are pronounced. I need to adjust to that. I think the summer will be slow. The time to make some money is perhaps now. I don't know if I can take advantage of it. Mentally, I'm not where I need to be. The discipline needed is a lot. I haven't had it lately. Things just don't happen to be successful. You've got to make then happen and I haven't been doing that lately. So it will be the sidelines for now. I really haven't got a choice. I don't want to do anything stupid but you never know. We'll see if we can make a comeback tomorrow or if we go to new lows.
Friday, June 02, 2006
The Dow lost 12 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was higher. The market is going up, plain and simple. Bonds rallied big on weak job numbers. I don't have any OEX trades in sight for now. Gold was up over $5 and the XAU rose almost 2 points. I'd like to get long here but it might be too late. NEM is leading this time. I don't really know what exactly to do here so I'm on the sidelines. Treading lightly. I think if we get a pullback in the market, I'll get some OEX calls but who knows? Right now it doesn't look like a pullback is in the cards. The weekend is here. I'll be taking it easy. Mentally I'm having some trouble coming up with a good trading scenario for June. I just don't see any solid set-ups right now. And I don't want to get into a short term mode. It burned me last month. Perhaps I'm just hesitant from the last few losing trades. Whatever the case, I won't be making any money while I'm in this funk. I need to get it together but it might take a while. Perhaps waiting for my vacation to pass will be the best course of action. We'll see.
Thursday, June 01, 2006
The Dow up 92 points on OK volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We are going up. How far and for how long is the question. I would like to get some OEX calls but they are expensive. There is also a chance that we will go sideways. But the market does what it wants and we could go to new highs too. Employment report tomorrow and todays action tells me we will continue higher regardless of the numbers. We'll see. Gold was down $15 today and the XAU sold off but came back to be down only a point. Interesting. The gold shares again are holding up. I'd like to purchase some calls here too but I'm not sure of the timing. It seems there is still interest in owning the gold shares. Hard to say what will happen there if the dollar rallies. I'm a bit tired today but that's no excuse for indecision. Mentally I don't know why but my mind can't seem to find a good trade at the moment. I might be too late for the OEX calls. Indecision won't be an asset in this game. But there is nothing lost on the sidelines except for opportunities. I am going on vacation in a month so there will be a disruption in my trading. I'll handle it as best I can. Only 2 weeks left for June options. Don't see anything happening yet but ya never know...