Friday, July 29, 2016
We finished the week and the month of July with a loss of 24 points for the Dow. The advance/declines were positive and the volume was above the summer average. The summation index continues sideways. GDP was less than expected but once again it did not have that much effect on the stock market. The overall market was stronger than the Dow again. That has been the theme for a while. It has been a low volatility sideways affair. The summer doldrums are in effect. Overbought and staying that way. Things will change, we just don't know when. GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains good here. GE obviously has not led the way down yet. Even with its decline it is still above its 50 day moving average. Gold caught a bid on the weak GDP report. The precious metal futures rose $17. The US dollar got slammed and fell over a point. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added about 3/4. Volume was average. It appears that the pause here for the gold shares has completed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. On to August. The stock market overbought condition has carried on for quite some time. As long as the small stocks continue with their relative strength, I don't see any major declines coming. I could be wrong. I don't see any divergences yet on the technical indicators for the major stock averages. That said, I'd still like to try the SPY puts at some point in the August/September time period. For now the trading remains lackluster, stuck in a trading range. Patience here has served us well so far. I suppose the next event will be the employment report due out in a week. The earnings so far have been generally above the lowered expectations. But nothing that has started an extended gain for stocks. It is the traditional summer mode in my mind and the sidelines aren't necessarily a bad place to be. Of course that will change in due time. Plenty of charts to consider over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, July 28, 2016
More of the same today as the Dow fell 15 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow again. It is a summertime drift as we approach the end of July. The GDP report tomorrow could be a mover in my opinion and we'll get the end of the month as well. I still believe that higher prices and new all time highs are in the near future. GE was off a few cents on average volume. Gold was up $8 on the futures as the US dollar was lower today. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. We could move here tomorrow off of the GDP report as well. A low number would be positive for gold and vice versa. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We've been in a channel for the past couple of weeks for the S&P 500. I expect this to be resolved any time now. My guess is a break higher. We are in the summer mode for the stock market at this time. As I said before it is probably better to be writing the options now as opposed to outright speculation. However, if we do push higher I will be looking at the SPY puts. Foreign markets were generally lower. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Bouncing around today but little change for the Dow. The most watched index fell a point or so on better volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending sideways. The NASDAQ was stronger today and that is bullish. As long as the small stocks are leading the way up, higher prices are in the near future. The Fed came and went. There were no surprises and that was expected. The next market mover in my mind will be the GDP report due Friday. I expect higher prices for stocks until something changes. GE lost about 20 cents and the volume remains good on the decline. Gold gained $20 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The Fed non event was a reason to rally for the precious metals. The XAU rose 4 1/2, while GDX advanced 1 1/3. Volume was good heading back up. Maybe the pause in the gold shares is over but that remains to be seen. We are approaching the favorable seasonal time period of August/September for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Sideways for the S&P 500 the past couple of weeks. I do believe the resolution will be to the upside. Still overbought on the short term technical indicators for the S&P. It has been a summer market for the past 2 weeks as well. Light volume, not much volatility and no huge price movements. For now, I expect this condition to continue. I am still considering the SPY puts in the future but would prefer to see another price breakout higher. Plenty of time to do something in the August option cycle. Earnings have been single stock drivers but not the overall market yet. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Just a couple more trading sessions for the Month of July and we'll head into August.
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
A slight pickup in volatility today but nothing major. The Dow fell 19 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now trending sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The small caps continue with the better relative strength. As long as that is the case, I'll be looking for a positive resolution to the near term congestion. We get the Fed tomorrow and that could provide the catalyst to send things higher for stocks. GE was off over 1/8 on average volume. The short term technicals have rolled over here but we are still above the 50 day moving average. Gold was flat on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU was up 3 1/8, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was average. Gold and the gold shares taking a much needed rest for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still in summer mode for the stock market as the volume remains on the light side. I don't expect anything new from the Fed tomorrow and perhaps we'll see some buying when all is said and done. Maybe the GDP report on Friday will get things moving. That is what I'm guessing for the moment. I would still like to get some SPY August or September puts when the time is right. There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle. But for now it seems like writing the options is a much better strategy than the outright speculation. Patience remains the theme for now. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight with the exception of NIKK. We'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow.
Monday, July 25, 2016
Lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 77 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. Lackluster is the best way to describe the action today. The summation index may start to trend sideways after todays numbers. The S&P 500 has simply moved sideways for the past 8 sessions. The lack of selling in the small caps today tells me this is just a pause before we go higher. But who knows? Maybe we'll roll over here. But I doubt it. Just waiting on the Fed in my opinion. GE was off 3/8 and the volume was good. GE led the way up, could it lead the way back down? Possibly but we'll know as time goes by. Gold was off $8 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well. The XAU shed 3 7/8, while GDX was lower by a point. Volume was good. A much needed rest here for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we've gone sideways and now it's time to head one way or the other. My guess is that we'll go higher to more new all time highs. The Fed should be a non-event really. There isn't a chance that there will be a change in rates this time around. Some economic data due this week but the most important will be the first look at the 2nd quarter GDP report. We should move from that on Friday. That will also close out the month. But first we need to get through the Fed. Asia and Europe were slightly higher or little changed overnight. We're in a holding pattern until the Fed announcement. More of the summer doldrums tomorrow.
Friday, July 22, 2016
Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 53 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Overbought, no overhead resistance and summer market conditions. There is no reason that we simply won't continue to move up. Plenty of time in the August option cycle to make a trade. GE was off 1/2 on the earnings and the volume was heavy. GE did finish quite above the low of the day though. The short term technical indicators have rolled over here. Gold was off around $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. A pause in the uptrend for now, which to me is a good thing looking out longer term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No reason we can't go higher here as the earnings are beating the lowered expectations for now. We'll get the Fed next week but I don't expect any surprises. Perhaps we can make it up to 2200 on the S&P but that's just a Friday afternoon guess and a nice round number. Certainly not a lot of volume on the rise but as always, you can't argue with price. Some would say that summer is the cause for the lack of participation but that might be the excuse going up or down. I'm still going to try and wait for some kind of divergence or technical signal before attempting the next trade. There is no hurry. Europe and Asia were a bit lower overnight. I'll be checking things out over the weekend as usual. For now it's Friday afternoon in the lazy, hazy days of summer. Time for a rest.
Thursday, July 21, 2016
Lower today as the Dow fell 77 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading up. Still overbought all the way around for the major stock indices. The small stocks held up relatively better today so there is no reason for concern with regards to the uptrend. It remains in place and there is nothing in the way of higher prices. GE was off about 20 cents on good volume. The earnings out tomorrow should provide movement in the stock. I don't know what to expect there. Gold bounced back a bit today. The precious metal futures gained a dozen as the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 3 1/2, while GDX added about 7/8. Volume was above average. My opinion here is that gold and the gold shares taking a break here is a good thing for the longer term trend higher. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Again, this is the first week of a 5 week option cycle and there is no rush to do anything. It has a summer doldrums feel to it and tomorrow should be more of the same. We've got the Fed next week but I would not expect any surprises there either. Patience is key at the moment. We'll wait for some kind of set up before taking on the next trade, possibly in the beginning of August at this rate. Japan and Chine were higher overnight, while Europe was mixed with small moves. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Another day another new all time high as the Dow rose 36 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading up. No change in the near term market outlook. Higher prices are still in the forecast. I sometimes think that perhaps I should just buy some SPY calls and for get about it. But it is too late for that. No overhead resistance for the Dow and the S&P. GE was off a bit over 1/8 on average volume. Still just waiting for Fridays earnings here. Gold dropped over $15 on the futures, while the US dollar was only slightly higher. The gold shares got clobbered. The XAU lost 6 1/3 and GDX fell 1 2/3. Volume was heavy. The pause in the gold shares is here. We'll see how far they drop because they were extremely overbought on all accounts. I do not think it will last very long though. The positive seasonal period of August/September is coming up. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. Quite a move since the fallout from the vote in England. I certainly didn't expect it. Earnings are coming in better than expected and that is providing legs for the rally. I'm not sure how long this will last but it usually goes longer than anyone expects. My idea is still the same. Wait for some kind of negative divergence and then get some SPY puts. Patience is still the word for now. Europe was higher and Asia mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on what transpires tonight.
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower. The most watched index gained 26 on again light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading higher. Summer mode here as the volume has dried up and the volatility is low. The drift higher is in place for now. The VIX is very low and higher prices are in my forecast for the near term. GE was flat again on average volume. A waiting game here for Fridays numbers. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar had a good day, breaking above the near term resistance. The XAU fell 1 2/3, while GDX was off 1/3. Volume was light. Time for a pause in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The summer doldrums have arrived. Light volume, not a lot of movement and players are on vacation. We've got the Fed next week and I don't expect any surprises but you never know. Plenty of time for now as I've mentioned in the August option cycle. So now is the time to plan your next move. I'm still leaning towards some SPY puts at some point between now and September. I do think that we will grind higher though in the short term. Once we put in some sort of top, I'll try the puts. But for now patience is warranted. Overseas markets were mixed again but the NIKK had a decent gain. We'll keep an eye on things tonight.
Monday, July 18, 2016
A quiet summer Monday as the Dow gained 16 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to the upside. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. No change in the overbought technical condition. I suspect that we will simply grind our way higher in the near term. Earnings will provide the excuse for either direction. Plenty of time in the August option cycle, so I'll be patient for now. GE was basically flat and the volume was lighter. Waiting on Fridays numbers here. Gold futures were flat as was the US dollar. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Still overdue for a rest in the gold shares in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not a lot of economic data out this week, mostly housing numbers. So it should be a quiet time. The market has done pretty good despite the worldwide turmoil. That is bullish. The media hasn't jumped on the new all time high bandwagon. That is bullish as well. Although the market is overbought, it can stay that way for an extended time during upturns. That is what we are seeing right now. Foreign markets were mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on overnight developments.
Saturday, July 16, 2016
My apologies for the late post from Fridays market. The Dow managed a 10 point gain on very light volume. The advance/declines were slightly higher. The summation index continues to the upside. It was a mixed bag though, as both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were lower. No option expiration fireworks as the market was subdued. Summer-like conditions prevailed with no volume. Stocks remain overbought but I do think there is some more room on the upside before we take a breather. GE was up 1/4 and the volume remained good here. Earnings next week should be the next catalyst here. Gold futures were flat but the US dollar had a good day. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Which wasn't all that bad considering the rise in the dollar. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we will roll into the August option cycle which contains and extra week. The option premiums are high. No hurry to put on a trade. I expect that things will be quiet for the rest of July even with a Fed meeting towards the end of the month. Stocks are extended here but there are no reasons to sell at the moment. My idea now is to wait for some negative divergences and then take a look at the SPY puts. I really think that it is too late for the calls unless we get a decent short term oversold condition and a buy signal. But I doubt that is in the near term future. Patience is paramount for now. I'll be checking things out over the next couple of days before the Monday opening. But I think for now the sidelines make sense. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Thursday, July 14, 2016
Another day another new all time high as the Dow gained 134 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The volume remains light but it is the summer and you cannot argue with price. How high will we go here? I certainly don't know that answer to that. There is no overhead resistance. There won't be any confirmation from the TRAN anytime soon though. The bullish expiration bias is in full swing and there are no sellers to speak of. Enjoy the ride. GE was up 1/4 on OK volume. GE has led the way here so we will keep a close eye on it. Earnings due here in a week. Gold lost over $10 on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well. The haven trade seems to be unwinding. The XAU was flat, with GDX slightly lower. Volume was light. Overdue for a pause/pullback on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No rush to trade here as the August option cycle has an extra week on it. The summer doldrums haven't exactly kicked in here yet as we trend higher. I suppose we could meander our way up to 2200 on the S&P and see what happens when we get there. Absent some kind of external shock, earnings will be the story for the next few weeks. The VIX has moved back down and we'll wait for some complacency before seriously looking at the SPY puts. When you start to see the Dow on the evening news headlines, be ready to go the other way. It is too late for the calls in my opinion but I could be wrong. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. The post will be late tomorrow as I have a previous commitment. It may not come out until Saturday. We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 13, 2016
Not much to speak of today as the Dow rose 24 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to the upside. The small stocks were relatively weaker along with the overall market. It felt like a summer trading day. Overbought on all accounts now and extremely in some areas. Some type of pause would be expected. I'll be waiting patiently before trying the next trade. GE was up a dime on average volume. Gold bounced back 8 bucks and the US dollar was a bit weaker. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added a point. Volume was lighter than yesterday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much to report on the market front. It was another new all time high for the Dow but we are barely hearing a peep from the mainstream media. That probably means that this rally has room to go. When everyone starts talking about the market, then you know we are at a meaningful top. We are overbought all the way around on the technical indicators but that doesn't necessarily mean that a decline is imminent. Perhaps some sideways chugging before we move higher. That's a guess as usual. We are going to let option expiration week pass and go from there. Asia was slightly higher and Europe generally mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on things tonight and take it from there.
Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Moving higher as the Dow gained 120 points on OK volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. There is no overhead resistance in the S&P 500. Very overbought now but that doesn't seem to matter at the moment. The Dow closed at a new all time high today as well. There was little on the news about the S&P 500 yesterday, so we will have to see what happens with the Dow today. When there isn't any major news coverage of the highest prices ever, we're heading higher. When the Dow is plastered on every front page and website, then we are at the top. I may have to reconsider my thinking on the SPY August/September puts. GE was up a nickel on good volume. Gold got whacked today and lost over $20 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU lost 3 points, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good. Perhaps this is the start of the much needed rest in this area. One day does not make a trend but if the stock market continues to move up, the luster will start to come off of gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The positive expiration week bias seems to be taking hold this time around. It has been quite a run since the turnaround after the vote in England to leave the EU. In retrospect, it can be viewed as a final shake out in stocks before moving higher. I certainly did not see that coming. There's an extra week in the August option cycle so there is no rush to put a trade on. Once again patience will be required. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight again. The world is back to putting money into stocks. There is plenty of cash to go around as well. Perhaps this market will go quite higher than anyone thinks. We'll see.
Monday, July 11, 2016
Moving higher as the Dow climbed 80 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 set a new all time closing high. The caveat here again is the light volume. I do not trust light volume rallies. Other major indices are not close to setting new all time highs. I do not think that this is the beginning of some huge push forward. But you cannot argue with price. My guess is that we'll be solid this week with the positive option expiration bias. After that we will have to wait and see. GE gained a penny on good volume. We did finish well off the highs of the day here. We did see a new yearly high here as well. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU was up a point, while GDX was flat. Volume was light. Gold and the gold shares are due a rest. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The small stocks are doing OK here so I don't think we'll see an imminent collapse. But I don't see a rip roaring move to the upside like we've seen since the sharp 2 day sell off a couple weeks ago. A light volume drift higher would be the preferred scenario in my mind. We are overbought on the technical indicators but it is not uncommon to stay that way. I'm still looking out to the August and September SPY puts. For now patience is required. Asia and Europe had very good gains last night. We were not as strong today as they were overseas. We'll see if that trend continues.
Friday, July 08, 2016
Powering higher as the Dow gained 250 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. We are within 2 points of an all time closing high in the S&P 500. We will get there next week. The jobs numbers were above expectations and we rallied from the start. It was a broad advance for stocks. Overbought and staying there. We should get the positive expiration week bias to kick in as well. With no overhead resistance for the S&P, we will have to see just how far this can go. There will be plenty of divergences with other indices though. The idea here is to let next week pass and then see where we are from there. GE was up 1/3 on decent volume. New yearly highs here. Overbought as well but there's room to run. Gold was up about $5 on the futures. The US dollar finished the day off just a touch. The strong employment report didn't bring the expected drop in gold and rally in the US dollar. Not sure what to make of that. The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was good. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The market is in rally mode. The only caveat is the light volume. With that in mind, I'm thinking that this could be a false upside breakout. Usually you would like to see the small stocks lead the way higher and they are not near their all time highs. Especially the RUT. Perhaps they can catch up to the S&P 500 but it would take a lot of work in a short amount of time. Or I could be wrong and that this is the start of a huge upside breakout that takes us a lot higher. I really don't think so. My guess is that things will slow down after the July option expiration next week. We'll have to see how the media reacts to the new highs next week. If it doesn't receive a lot of press, then I think we will go higher. But if it is plastered all over the news and people are talking about it, then I will feel that it won't last that long. That is simply my opinion. The technical indicators are certainly more overbought than oversold on both a short and medium term basis. But they are not at extremes. It is important in my mind to watch the volume as we go higher. If we do not see a pick up there, I will feel more confident about the August or September SPY puts. It is something to keep an eye on. I'll check all the charts again over the weekend. It is a summer Friday afternoon. Time to take a rest.
Thursday, July 07, 2016
A one day reversal back to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. It fell 22 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way. This is a positive. I still think that maybe we can make an attempt at new all time highs on the S&P before the July expiration. Tomorrow will most likely be the key with the market reaction to the jobs report. Still short term overbought on some of the technical indicators. GE did touch a 52 week high today before falling back. It was up a few cents on good volume. Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU dropped 3 points and GDX dipped a point. Volume was above average. Gold and the gold shares are overdue for a rest in my opinion. Some consolidation would be a good thing for the longer term uptrend. Some of the technical indicators here are over stretched. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we'll get the employment report out of the way tomorrow and then what? Earnings are coming up next. Of course those will be stock specific but they always have the potential to be broader market movers. I'm going to let the July expiration pass before attempting another trade. Right now I'm looking at the August or September SPY puts. The ideal scenario would be a light volume rise to new all time highs. The market rarely cooperates though. For now I'm on hold with the anticipation that we could see a slow down in trading and volatility after tomorrow. European markets were higher overnight with Asia mixed. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 06, 2016
It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index climbed 78 points on better than lately volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. Just waiting for Friday in my opinion. The summation index continues to the upside. Bumping up against the near term resistance in the S&P 500. I'm expecting that we'll get through. Still short term overbought for some of the technical indicators, room to run on others. GE was up almost 1/3 on average volume. Close to a new yearly high here. Gold was up $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good. Gold and the gold shares have broken out to the upside from their consolidation zones and continue to attract capital. Plenty overbought here though on both a short and medium term basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Was it just less than 2 weeks ago the world was consumed by the vote in England? That seems to have left the markets radar in a hurry. Tomorrow should be a wait and see game ahead of Fridays employment report. My guess would be that we're heading higher regardless of the numbers. Perhaps GE is leading the way here. I do not have any trades in mind at the moment. Europe and Asia were generally weaker overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, July 05, 2016
Lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 108 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The summation index is still heading up. We did come back from the lows of the session. Probably just taking some money off the table ahead of Fridays jobs report. But that's a guess as usual. Still short term overbought on some of the short term technical indicators. I'm still thinking that we will see new all time highs in the S&P 500 by the July expiration. After that, who knows? GE was off a few cents on average volume. Gold was up about $5 on the futures and the US dollar had a good day as well. The XAU was up a point and GDX rose almost 2/3 on average volume. We've broken out on the gold shares from the consolidation zone but the volume hasn't been all that spectacular. We'll see how that plays out going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A nice long weekend to forget about the last losing trade and now a fresh start. My thinking right now is that I'm going to let the employment report get out of the way and look out to August and September. That could change of course but that is the plan for now. I expect that the market will slow down now after the English exit vote fiasco. I could be wrong. So the strategy for me here is to sit tight and wait for the next decent technical signal. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Friday, July 01, 2016
A slight gain today as the Dow rose 19 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to go higher. It was a lackluster session compared to the previous days in the week. Traders headed out early for the long holiday weekend I suppose. I dumped the SPY July puts that I had for an 80% loss. Not good execution going in and really bad on the exit. The market doesn't care. You've just got to keep moving on. Short term overbought now on some of the technical indicators for the major stock indices. But the VIX has moved below the 16 level. There is probably more rally to go here. GE was basically flat today on OK volume. Gold soared $25 on the futures today as the US dollar was weaker. Beginning of the month and quarter money flows perhaps? The XAU gained almost 5 points, while GDX added 1 1/3. Volume was average. We broke out to the upside from the months long consolidation in the gold shares. There's no telling how long this can go on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Another losing trade to lament as I certainly was not anticipating a sharp V shaped recovery in stocks this week. The overall market was stronger that the Dow today so there is probably more room to run. I was looking for new all time highs in the S&P a week or so ago. Maybe we will get there this time. One of the indicators that I use says there is still a long way to go before we get to an overly bullish sentiment. The financial press is also still cautious and they are generally wrong. So I'll be back to looking for higher prices into the July expiration. Once again Europe and Asia were higher overnight. I'll have to regroup over the weekend as my confidence is now down after this latest trading debacle. There are 9 days to go in the July option cycle. The employment report next Friday should be the next major market mover. A long summer holiday weekend is up next. Time for a break.