Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Bouncing around today but little change for the Dow. The most watched index fell a point or so on better volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending sideways. The NASDAQ was stronger today and that is bullish. As long as the small stocks are leading the way up, higher prices are in the near future. The Fed came and went. There were no surprises and that was expected. The next market mover in my mind will be the GDP report due Friday. I expect higher prices for stocks until something changes. GE lost about 20 cents and the volume remains good on the decline. Gold gained $20 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The Fed non event was a reason to rally for the precious metals. The XAU rose 4 1/2, while GDX advanced 1 1/3. Volume was good heading back up. Maybe the pause in the gold shares is over but that remains to be seen. We are approaching the favorable seasonal time period of August/September for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Sideways for the S&P 500 the past couple of weeks. I do believe the resolution will be to the upside. Still overbought on the short term technical indicators for the S&P. It has been a summer market for the past 2 weeks as well. Light volume, not much volatility and no huge price movements. For now, I expect this condition to continue. I am still considering the SPY puts in the future but would prefer to see another price breakout higher. Plenty of time to do something in the August option cycle. Earnings have been single stock drivers but not the overall market yet. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Just a couple more trading sessions for the Month of July and we'll head into August.