Tuesday, July 26, 2016
A slight pickup in volatility today but nothing major. The Dow fell 19 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now trending sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The small caps continue with the better relative strength. As long as that is the case, I'll be looking for a positive resolution to the near term congestion. We get the Fed tomorrow and that could provide the catalyst to send things higher for stocks. GE was off over 1/8 on average volume. The short term technicals have rolled over here but we are still above the 50 day moving average. Gold was flat on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU was up 3 1/8, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was average. Gold and the gold shares taking a much needed rest for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still in summer mode for the stock market as the volume remains on the light side. I don't expect anything new from the Fed tomorrow and perhaps we'll see some buying when all is said and done. Maybe the GDP report on Friday will get things moving. That is what I'm guessing for the moment. I would still like to get some SPY August or September puts when the time is right. There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle. But for now it seems like writing the options is a much better strategy than the outright speculation. Patience remains the theme for now. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight with the exception of NIKK. We'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow.