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Friday, July 08, 2016

Powering higher as the Dow gained 250 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We are within 2 points of an all time closing high in the S&P 500.  We will get there next week.  The jobs numbers were above expectations and we rallied from the start.  It was a broad advance for stocks.  Overbought and staying there.  We should get the positive expiration week bias to kick in as well.  With no overhead resistance for the S&P, we will have to see just how far this can go.  There will be plenty of divergences with other indices though.  The idea here is to let next week pass and then see where we are from there.  GE was up 1/3 on decent volume.  New yearly highs here.  Overbought as well but there's room to run.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished the day off just a touch.  The strong employment report didn't bring the expected drop in gold and rally in the US dollar.  Not sure what to make of that.  The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is in rally mode.  The only caveat is the light volume.  With that in mind, I'm thinking that this could be a false upside breakout.  Usually you would like to see the small stocks lead the way higher and they are not near their all time highs.  Especially the RUT.  Perhaps they can catch up to the S&P 500 but it would take a lot of work in a short amount of time.  Or I could be wrong and that this is the start of a huge upside breakout that takes us a lot higher.  I really don't think so.  My guess is that things will slow down after the July option expiration next week.  We'll have to see how the media reacts to the new highs next week.  If it doesn't receive a lot of press, then I think we will go higher.  But if it is plastered all over the news and people are talking about it, then I will feel that it won't last that long.  That is simply my opinion.  The technical indicators are certainly more overbought than oversold on both a short and medium term basis.  But they are not at extremes.  It is important in my mind to watch the volume as we go higher.  If we do not see a pick up there, I will feel more confident about the August or September SPY puts.  It is something to keep an eye on.  I'll check all the charts again over the weekend.  It is a summer Friday afternoon.  Time to take a rest. 

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