Thursday, July 14, 2016
Another day another new all time high as the Dow gained 134 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The volume remains light but it is the summer and you cannot argue with price. How high will we go here? I certainly don't know that answer to that. There is no overhead resistance. There won't be any confirmation from the TRAN anytime soon though. The bullish expiration bias is in full swing and there are no sellers to speak of. Enjoy the ride. GE was up 1/4 on OK volume. GE has led the way here so we will keep a close eye on it. Earnings due here in a week. Gold lost over $10 on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well. The haven trade seems to be unwinding. The XAU was flat, with GDX slightly lower. Volume was light. Overdue for a pause/pullback on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No rush to trade here as the August option cycle has an extra week on it. The summer doldrums haven't exactly kicked in here yet as we trend higher. I suppose we could meander our way up to 2200 on the S&P and see what happens when we get there. Absent some kind of external shock, earnings will be the story for the next few weeks. The VIX has moved back down and we'll wait for some complacency before seriously looking at the SPY puts. When you start to see the Dow on the evening news headlines, be ready to go the other way. It is too late for the calls in my opinion but I could be wrong. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. The post will be late tomorrow as I have a previous commitment. It may not come out until Saturday. We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.