Tuesday, July 19, 2016
A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower. The most watched index gained 26 on again light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading higher. Summer mode here as the volume has dried up and the volatility is low. The drift higher is in place for now. The VIX is very low and higher prices are in my forecast for the near term. GE was flat again on average volume. A waiting game here for Fridays numbers. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar had a good day, breaking above the near term resistance. The XAU fell 1 2/3, while GDX was off 1/3. Volume was light. Time for a pause in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The summer doldrums have arrived. Light volume, not a lot of movement and players are on vacation. We've got the Fed next week and I don't expect any surprises but you never know. Plenty of time for now as I've mentioned in the August option cycle. So now is the time to plan your next move. I'm still leaning towards some SPY puts at some point between now and September. I do think that we will grind higher though in the short term. Once we put in some sort of top, I'll try the puts. But for now patience is warranted. Overseas markets were mixed again but the NIKK had a decent gain. We'll keep an eye on things tonight.