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Friday, July 29, 2016

We finished the week and the month of July with a loss of 24 points for the Dow.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was above the summer average.  The summation index continues sideways.  GDP was less than expected but once again it did not have that much effect on the stock market.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow again.  That has been the theme for a while.  It has been a low volatility sideways affair.  The summer doldrums are in effect.  Overbought and staying that way.  Things will change, we just don't know when.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains good here.  GE obviously has not led the way down yet.  Even with its decline it is still above its 50 day moving average.  Gold caught a bid on the weak GDP report.  The precious metal futures rose $17.  The US dollar got slammed and fell over a point.  The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added about 3/4.  Volume was average.  It appears that the pause here for the gold shares has completed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  On to August.  The stock market overbought condition has carried on for quite some time.  As long as the small stocks continue with their relative strength, I don't see any major declines coming.  I could be wrong.  I don't see any divergences yet on the technical indicators for the major stock averages.  That said, I'd still like to try the SPY puts at some point in the August/September time period.  For now the trading remains lackluster, stuck in a trading range.  Patience here has served us well so far.  I suppose the next event will be the employment report due out in a week.  The earnings so far have been generally above the lowered expectations.  But nothing that has started an extended gain for stocks.  It is the traditional summer mode in my mind and the sidelines aren't necessarily a bad place to be.  Of course that will change in due time.  Plenty of charts to consider over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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